摘要
原油的稳定供给和运输安全是保障原油进口的重要条件。如何确保原油的可靠供应已成为当前世界各国能源安全的突出问题,而原油运输无疑是这个供应链条上至关重要的一环。运输网络是保障原油运输安全、顺利的基础,它包括诸多复杂因素,以及由此导致的诸多不确定性。一旦运输网络中某个节点断链,将给原油进口运输带来风险和挑战。因此,进行中国原油运输网络的安全保障分析将成为国家原油甚至能源安全问题研究的重要切入点。
本文应用风险管理理论,深层次地考虑在外界环境变化、众多不确定因素下的原油运输网络安全保障研究,并将其细化为原油进口需求变化研究,原油轮船队运力决策研究以及网络稳定性研究三大问题。在分析影响进口需求、运力决策以及网络稳定性的不确定性因素的基础上,文章应用多元线性回归辅以岭回归进行预测模型的修正与原油进口值的预测。通过Fuzzy Logic理论将影响船队运力决策分为扩张、保持与萎缩三大模糊集合,并基于博弈论原理研究网络稳定性,找出网络中的薄弱环节。最后以非洲-中国进口路线为例,进行了模型的应用。
通过研究,2020年中国预计原油进口海运需求约7.77亿吨,为合理预测进口需求量、妥善规划船队运力来提升对于供应链断链风险的可抗性,早日完成国家原油战略储备计划奠定坚实基础;而以非洲-中国运输路径为例,斯里兰卡-新加坡路径为关键环节。本文研究可以通过找出原油运输网络中的薄弱环节对市场进行动态反馈,进而为网络稳定性优化及原油运输网络安全保障提供理论依据。
Regular supply of crude oil and safe transportation network are taken as signs of guarantee of China’s crude oil import. As a result, how to ensure a reliable supply of crude oil has become the current energy problems for most countries all over the world. Furthermore, the safety of crude oil transportation network is a critical part of this supply chain. Crude oil network consists of many complex factors and uncertainties. Once one link of the network fails, it will bring risks and challenges to the whole supply chain, then further to safety of crude oil import. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of China’s crude oil transportation network safety management will be a good starting point to investigate China’s crude oil and national energy security problems.
Based on risk management theory, research is taken under fluctuating market environment and various situations of uncertainty. Study on China’s crude oil transportation network safety management is divided into three parts: (1) research on import demand; (2) research on China’s tanker fleet planning decision; (3) research on network reliability. After analyzing uncertain factors which affect crude oil import demand, tanker fleet composition decision and network reliability respectively, multiple linear regression with ridge regression are proposed. Tanker fleet composition decision is divided into three fuzzy set: expansion, maintenance and shrink using fuzzy logic theory. By applying game theory into research of network reliability, vulnerable nodes are found. A case study on China’s crude oil import practices is used to test the validation and apply the proposed methods.
Through this study, crude oil import demand in 2020 is forecasted to be 770 million tons. Resistance to supply chain failure will be improved by properly forecasting import demand and planning tanker fleet, which will help fully implementing the State Oil Strategic Reserves Plan as well. Link from Sri-Lanka to Singapore is raised as the key link for the whole route Africa-China.Dynamic actions were taken under uncertain factors to improve network reliability, which can used as the theoretical foundation of China’s crude oil safety ensurance study.
引文
[1]叶宇旻.我国原油进口海上运力分析研究[D],上海,上海交通大学,2008
[2] Jiaolong Lai, Xiaoning Shi, Hao Hu. China’s Oil Import Forecast and its Impact on Tanker Fleet Composition, IFSPA 2010 conference, Chengdu, Oct 2010
[3] F. Gerard Adams and Yochanan Shachmurove. Modeling and Forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020[J]. Energy Economics, 2008(30): 1263–1278
[4] Hun-cun Tung. The Energy Demand Trend in Contemporary China: The Case of Petroleum and Coal[D].Sweden: Lund University, 2008
[5] Holscher, Jens and Bachan, Ray. Petroleum Demand in China: An Econometric Approach[J]. International Journal of Emerging Markets. 2008 (3): 54-70
[6] Miranda-da-Cruz, Sergio M. A Model Approach for Analysing Trends in Energy Supply and Demand at Country Level: Case Study of Industrial Development in China[J],Energy Economics, 2007(29): 913-933.
[7]赵兴军,吴彦瑞.中国能源进口决定因素:经验研究[J].能源政策,2007(35) :4235-4246
[8] Crompton, Paul and Wu, Yanrui. Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions[J]. Energy Economics, 2005(27): 195-208
[9] Dai, Yande and Zhu, Yuezhong. China’s Energy Demand Scenarios to 2020: Impact Analysis of Policy Options on China’s Future Energy Demand[J]. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2005(24): 131-143
[10]李, Z.关于2030年中国经济、能源与环境的计量经济学研究[J].能源政策, 2003(31): 1137-1150
[11]王翚.我国石油进口需求、供给分析与预测[D].江西:江西财经大学, 2006
[12] Keii, C. China’s energy supply and demand situations and coal industry’s trends today[R]. Institute of Energy Economics, Japan,2000
[13] Hirschhausen,C, Andres, M. Long term electricity demand in China-from quantitative to qualitative grow[J].Energy Policy, 2000(28):231-241
[14] Han,W., Liu, X. Analysis on China’s Supply of and demand for oil and gas[D].Natural Gas Policy Seminar, Beijing, June,2000
[15] Chan, Hing Lin and Lee, Shu Kam. Modelling and Forecasting the Demand for Coal in China[J]. Energy Economics, 1997(19): 271-287
[16] Sinton, Jonathan E. and Levine, Mark D. Changing Energy Intensity in ChineseIndustry: The Relative Importance of Structural Shift and Intensity Change[J]. Energy Policy, 1994(22):239-256
[17]侯建卫.中国石油对外贸易发展战略研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学, 2006.
[18]胡像红.中国石油对外贸易及其对策研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨理工大学,2006
[19]倪建民,王庆英.国家能源安全报告[R],北京,2005
[20]中国经济安全现代国际关系研究中心.全球能源市场报告[R],中国经济安全现代国际关系研究中心, 2005
[21] Ir.M.A.Wijsmuller assisted by JG.B.Bermee. Investment and RePlacement Analysis in shipping[J]. International Shipbuilding Prograss.1979(126).
[22]谢新连,李树范,纪卓尚.船队规划的线性模型及应用[J]. 1989
[23]张鲁峰,张仁颐.发展我国巨型油轮船队的战略规划[J].上海交通大学学报. 2001(35)
[24] T.A.J. Nicholson and R.D.Pullen. Dynamic Programming Applied to Ship Fleet Management[J]. Operational Research Quarterly.1971(22)
[25]谢新连.船队规划的动态模型与算法[J].中国造船,1992
[26]党文涛,胡现月.油轮船队规划的动态规划模型研究[J].交通科技与经济. 2006(34)
[27] Warren B. Powell, Tassio A. Carvalho, Gregory A. Godfrey and Hugo P. Simao. Dynamic fleet management as a logistics queueing network[J] . Annals of Operations Research,1995(61):165-188
[28] George F. List, Bryan Wood, Linda K Nozick, Mark A. Turnquist, Dean A. Jones, Edwin A Kjeldgaard, Craig R. Lawton. Robust optimization for fleet planning under uncertainty[J]. Transportation Research Part E 2003(39):209–227
[29]胡现月.油运公司原油运输船队规划方法研究[D].上海:上海海事大学,2005
[30]王晶.中国石油安全的经济学分析[D]。北京:中央民族大学,2006.
[31]秦晓.我国能源安全战略中的能源运输问题[J].我国能源,2004(26):4-7.
[32]秦晓.中国能源运输业的发展与未来战略[J].我国能源, 2008(30):29-33.
[33]毛成辉.我国入境石油的运输安全对策[J].交通发展, 2005(.6): 25-28.
[34]孙晓蕾,王永峰.浅析我国石油进口运输布局与运输安全[J].我国能源, 2007(29):17-24.
[35]张页.我国进口石油运输安全问题的探讨[J].水运管理, 2004(26): 11-15.
[36]刘璐,包不弱,欧吉兵.解读“马六甲困局”——试论我国石油运输安全战略[J].经纪人学报, 2006(1):79-81.
[37]崔向东.国有VLCC船队——我国未来石油运输安全的保障[J].天津航海, 2006(3):32-36.
[38]陈飞儿,张仁颐.我国原油进口航线网络的优化[J].上海海事大学学报,2006(.27)
[39]陈飞儿,张仁颐.中国进口原油海运系统研究[J].中国航海,2006(2)
[40]李敏敏.基于需求分布的中国原油进口海运运输网络优化研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2009
[41] Yasunori Iida. Basic Concepts and Future Directions of Road Network Reliability[J]. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 1999(33): 125-134
[42] bell, M. G. H. A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport theory[J]. Transp Res, 2000(36): 533-546.
[43] Lin Wang, Qiong Wang. Regional Logistics Network Reliability Evaluation and Optimization: Proceedings of the Intelligent Systems and Applications, 2011 3rd International Workshop, Wuhan, May 28-29, 2011[C]
[44] Darren. M. Scott, David. C. Novak, Lisa Aultman-Hall, Feng Guo. Network Robustness Index: A new method for identifying critical links and evaluating the performance of transportation networks[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2006(14): 215-227
[45] Shujun Hou, Naoki Maruyama, Seizo Kato. New Methodology to Calculate Unblocked Reliability to Assess Road Network Operation Performance[J]. Journal of Mechanical Systems for Transportation and Logistic, 2008(1): 240-351
[46]国家发展改革委员会.能源发展十一五规划[R],2007
[47]欧派克上调世界原油需求http://news.yunnan.cn/html/2011-01/18/content_1472372.htm [BD/OL] (2011.1.18) [2012.2.10]
[48]曾旺.石油峰值:跳不出的生命旋回[J],中国石油报, 2007
[49] 2010年第一季度中国进口原油价格数据分析,中国联合市场调研网http://www.cu-market.com.cn/hgjj/2010-7-29/16345980.html [BD/OL] (2010.7.29) [2012.2.10]
[50]李雨,焦建玲,唐运舒.基于动态规划的原油进口采购价格研究[J].价值工程,2010(29)
[51]战略石油储备http://baike.baidu.com/view/684098.htm [BD/OL] (2011.10.25) [2012.2.10]
[52] Andrew Quinn,“Resource Hungry China Makes African Push,”Reuters [UK], http://reuters.co.uk [BD/OL] (25 Nov 2004)[12 Dec 2011]
[53]当前世界经济形势特点分析http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/13915391.html[BD/OL] (2011.2.14) [2012.2.10]
[54]徐国祥.《统计预测和决策》[M].上海财经大学出版社,2005年8月
[55]陈飞.灰色预测模型及应用[J],商情(教育经济研究),2008(5):112
[56]岭回归分析.百度百科http://baike.baidu.com/view/2135093.html?fromTaglist [BD/OL] (2011.11.27) [2012.2.10]
[57]下半年原油运输量将低于上半年。http://www.scmfair.com/cn/article_show1.asp?ArticleID=3373 [BD/OL] (2010.7.26) [2012.2.10]
[58] Andy Case, Jeff Woyda. Final Results Announcement[R].Clarksons, 2010.12.
[59]张慧民.模糊逻辑简介.贵州制约逻辑学会,http://210.40.32.30/gzzy/ArticleShow.asp?ArticleID=1322 ,[BD/OL] (2009.6.2) [2012.2.10]
[60]模糊集合.百度文库http://wenku.baidu.com/view/8d0a2420bcd126fff7050b82.html [BD/OL] (2011.6.29) [2012.2.10]
[61] DAN SIMON. SUM NORMAL OPTIMIZATION OF FUZZY MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS[J]. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems,2002
[62]袁雄军,任常兴,朱常龙,葛秀坤,王凯全.基于模糊逻辑系统的管道风险评估[J].工业安全与环保,2011(37): 16-19
[63] Belohlavek, Radim, Klir, George J. Concepts and Fuzzy Logic[M]. America:Baker&Taylor Books.2011, 55-70
[64] M.C. Kisacikoglu, M. Uzunoglu, M. S. Alam. Load sharing using fuzzy logic controls in a fuel cell/ultracapacitor hybrid vehicle[J]. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2009(34): 1497-1507
[65] Saad, W.; Zhu Han; Debbah, M.; Hjorungnes, A.; Basar, T. Coalitional game theory for communication networks[J].Signal Processing Magazine, IEEE.Vol.26, 2009: 77-97
[66] Carlos P. Roca. JoséA. Cuesta. Angel Sánchez. Evolutionary Game Theory: Temporal and spatial effects beyond replicator dynamics[J].Physics of Life Reviews.Vol.6, 2009:208-249