摘要
区域应急疏散是一个庞杂的疏散问题,它具有疏散面积大,疏散人员情况复杂等特点。目前人们对于应急疏散的研究主要集中在建筑物内部疏散,对于区域疏散的研究主要集中在道路交通区域疏散上,而对于综合性较强的事故区域应急疏散的研究甚少。然而随着我国城市化进程的不断加速,城郊的化工企业渐渐被繁华的城市吞没,紧邻居民区或中小学校,它们建设早,设备老化,极易发生各类事故,其中属毒气泄漏事故多发、影响范围大,疏散人数多。因此,对于毒气泄漏事故区域应急疏散的研究是十分必要的。而如何科学的选择事故时避难点,又是保证事故区域应急疏散安全快速有效进行的重中之重。
为了解决以上问题,本文对西安某化工厂进行了实地调查,以该厂及其毗邻的居民区和马路作为应急疏散模拟区域,以该区域内的厂内员工、周边居民和路过行人作为模拟对象,分别对三类模拟对象进行问卷调查,对调查结果用SPSS软件进行统计分析,并以此为依据运用Building EXODUS分别对三类区域的相关人群进行疏散模拟,得到结论如下：
(1)与员工在毒气泄漏事故中心理及行为反应相关的因素有12个,按相关度大小排列为是否清楚厂内危化品储存的位置或性质、性别、是否有熟知的避难点等；与居民在毒气泄漏事故中心理及行为反应相关的因素有10个,按相关度大小排列为教育程度、经历事故、年龄等；与行人在毒气泄漏事故中心理及行为反应相关的因素有3个,按相关度大小排列为是否经历过毒气泄漏事故、路过该企业频率、性别。
(2)通过对三类区域分别进行应急疏散模拟,得到各区域在疏散过程中的中毒死亡百分率为：厂区21%,居民区10%,马路0%。
(3)对避难点处于马路不同位置的情况分别进行模拟,得到最佳的避难点位置为马路总长度600m处。
本研究针对某化工企业的基本情况,在模拟中结合了所需疏散人员调查问卷的结果,使模拟的仿真程度大大提高,因此,本文对于区域应急疏散在方案决策上是可行的,本结果对区域疏散应急救援预案的科学制定和城市避难点的科学规划都提供了相应的技术支持。
Regional emergency evacuation is a complex problem. It has the features:large area, a number of evacuees, Etc. At present the emergency evacuation research focuses on building internal evacuation, and the research on regional evacuation are mainly concentrated in traffic evacuated, but people seldom consider the regional emergency evacuation. With the acceleration of China's urbanization, originally the chemical enterprises gradually by suburban cities, they close to residential or schools, and builded early, equipment aging, may cause all kinds of accidents. The gas leakage accidents often happen and can make evacuation of lots of people. So the study on gas leakage accident emergency evacuation is very necessary. But how to scientifically choose the temporary shelter, is the guarantee of regional emergency evacuation.
In order to solve the above problems, this paper made a in investigation in Xi'an a chemical enterprise, with the simulated object of the factory and adjacent to the neighborhood and road, with the evacuees, including the workers, residents and pedestrians. Make the questionnaire survey to three simulation objects, and analyze the results with SPSS statistical. Using Building EXODUS to evacuate three types of people. The conclusion follows:
(1) The related factors with the workers psychology and behavior in gas leakage accident have 12 points, according to the correlation is clear for the size of the position or stored inside for nature, gender, whether there is known as refuge. The related factors with the citizens psychology and behavior in gas leakage accident have 10 points, according to the correlation degree of education for size, accident, age, home of whether there is action inconvenience. The related factors with the pedestrians psychology and behavior in gas leakage accident have 3 points, including experienced, passing the enterprise frequency, and gender.
(2) Through the simulation for emergency evacuation of three areas respectively, get the percentage of poisoning death in every area: factory 14%, residential areas 10%, Road 0.
(3) In the shelter at different points of simulated position respectively, get the best position for the shelter in total length 600m.
Based on the basic case of a chemical enterprises, in the simulations combined with the required evacuees questionnaire results, to simulate the simulation has been greatly improved, based on the regional emergency evacuation plan is feasible in decision making, the results of the evacuation of regional contingency plan for science and scientific planning of urban asylum point provides corresponding technical support.
引文
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