摘要
全球竞争加剧迫使企业不断追求创新,产品研发活动不再局限于制造商内部,而且扩展到外部供应体系,并逐步形成纵向研发联盟。但实证研究表明联盟的失败率高达50%以上,而且研发联盟的失败率更是较之犹甚,所以面对协同开发战略的流行和研发联盟高风险的两难窘境,研发联盟风险控制成为一个亟待深入研究的问题。
总体而言,现有的联盟研究大多是静态研究联盟投入或产出的问题,即所谓的“内容问题”,该研究主要强调为什么选择特定的治理结构,或者如何设计联盟合作契约,从而建立激励机制或惩罚机制。迄今为止,研发联盟研究基本上还处于理论模型构建或者逻辑论证阶段,仍然缺乏针对如何有效管理协同研发“过程问题”的动态研究。因此,本研究将基于国内汽车产业纵向研发联盟的具体管理情境,通过以定量研究为主、仿真实验为辅助的研究方法,采用结构视角与关系视角整合的观点加强对于研发联盟控制、信任与联盟风险问题的研究。具体来说,
论文主要开展以下几个方面的研究工作:
①全面系统地认知与分类了纵向研发联盟风险,即纵向研发联盟关系风险与绩效风险,同时通过基于中国管理情境的实证研究,构建了纵向研发联盟风险测度量表和社会控制测度量表,并且进一步归纳总结了纵向研发联盟风险的来源以及作用机理,以及分析了纵向研发联盟社会控制的管理实践行为和特征。
②基于文献研究建立了纵向研发联盟控制、信任与风险的研究模型和相关研究假设,然后基于研究模型进行了研究变量设计;同时进行了样本收集与处理,分别对联盟社会控制、信任与联盟绩效风险的关系以及联盟正式控制、信任与联盟绩效风险的关系进行多元回归分析,同时进行中介效应检验和分析,对研究假设进行了验证。
③基于复杂适应系统理论的视角,通过多主体建模仿真技术,参考“雪堆博弈”模型和“空间囚徒困境”模型,建立起研发联盟网络模型并在计算机上进行仿真演化。仿真的目的是探讨联盟控制对主体个体属性、主体类型进化、联盟总收益以及网络拓扑结构的影响。
论文的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面:
①构建了纵向研发联盟风险测度量表,归纳总结了纵向研发联盟风险的来源以及作用机理;构建了纵向研发联盟社会控制测度量表,并且进一步分析了纵向研发联盟社会控制的管理实践行为和特征。为拓展联盟控制研究领域,更好地理解联盟风险动态演化过程奠定了经验性研究基础。
②对纵向研发联盟控制与信任对于联盟风险的内在作用机理进行了具有新意的定量研究。研究发现:联盟社会控制和正式控制均显著负向影响联盟关系风险,信任在联盟控制与风险之间发挥中介效应。
③基于多主体建模仿真方法,研究了联盟控制对研发联盟网络演化及联盟总收益的影响。研究发现:施加社会控制,能在一定幅度上减少投机者占比,提高互惠者占比,但作用有限;施加冲突控制,可以大幅度减少投机者占比,提高互惠者占比;在施加冲突控制后,联盟总收益与演化初始主体类型比例无关等结论。
The intensive global competition drives the enterprises to pursue the innovation. The research and development of products are not limited to the interior manufacturers, but have been extended to the exterior supply system. It then gradually forms the research and development alliance vertically. However, the empirical researches indicate that the failure rate of alliance is over 50%, while the failure rate of research and development alliance is even higher. Consequently, it has been confronted with the dilemma of the fashion of collaborative development strategy and the high risk of research and development alliance. The risk control of research and development alliance becomes urgent to be further studied.
Generally speaking, the present alliance researches mainly refer to the static analysis of the input and output of the alliance, namely the so-called "content". Such research mainly lays emphasis on the reasons of selecting the particular governance structure, or how to design the cooperative contract of alliance, in order to establish the incentive mechanism or punishment mechanism. Up to date, the researches on the research and development alliance mainly strive for the construction of the theoretical model or the logical demonstration, still lack in the dynamic researches on how to effectively manage the "process" of the collaborative research and development. In consequence, based on the specific management situation of the vertical research and development alliance in the automotive industry in China, mainly through quantitative researche methods with the auxiliary one of emulation experiment,this research will adopt the concept of the integration between the structure angle and relationship angle to strengthen the researches related to the control, trust and risk of the research and development alliance. To be specific, the paper mainly includes the following sections:
①It comprehensively and systematically identifies and classifies the risks of vertical research and development alliance, namely the relationship risk and performance risk. Meanwhile, by the aid of the empirical research based on the management situation in China, it constructs the risk measurement and the social control measurement of vertical research and development alliance and also summarizes the sources and mechanism of action of the risks and analyzes the behavior and characteristics of the management practice.
②Based upon the literature review, it constructs the research model of control, trust and risks of research and development alliance and the relative research hypotheses. Then on the basis of the research model, it designs the research variables; meanwhile it deals with the gathering and treatment of samples and carries through the multiple regression analysis for the relationship between the social control, trust and performance risks of the alliance and the relationship between the official control, trust and performance risks of the alliance respectively. Furthermore, it takes the mediating effect testing and analysis to confirm the hypotheses.
③From the angle of complex adaptive system, it adopts the multi-agent modeling simulation technology and refers to the“snowdrift games”model and“space prisoner’s dilemma games”model, in order to establish the network model of research and development alliance and take the simulation evolution in the computer. The goals of simulation are to discuss the influence of alliance control on the individual attributes of agent, type evolution, gross earnings of alliance and network topology.
The innovations of the paper include:
①It constructs the risk measurement of vertical research and development alliance and also summarizes the sources and mechanism of action of the risks; it constructs the social control measurement of the vertical research and development alliance and then analyzes the behavior and characteristics of the management practice. It lays a foundation of empirical research for the expansion of alliance control research area and the better understanding of the dynamic evolutionary process of alliance risks.
②It adopts the quantitative research methods to take an innovative analysis on the inner mechanism of action of control and trust on the alliance risks. The results indicate: the alliance's social control and official control have a significant and negative influence on the alliance's performance risks. Trust in the alliance between the control and risk play a mediating role.
③Based on the multi-agent modeling simulation, it studies the influence of alliance control on the network evolution of research and development alliance, as well as the alliance's gross earnings. The conclusions include: the application of social control can reduce the speculator percentage and enhance the percentage of mutually beneficial parties; while after applying the conflict control, no correlation has been found between the alliance's gross earnings and the percentage of the agent types in the beginning of evolution.
引文
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