摘要
随着世界贸易量的增长，港口生产的发展，运输船舶向大型化方向发展。特别是在大宗货物的海上运输，越来越多的采用大型船舶。随着我国加入WTO，市场竞争日趋激烈，对天津港来说，随着深水航道、码头扩建和改造，到港船舶的数量不断增加，到港船舶也趋向大型化。港口是否具有接卸能力，是否能保证进出港船舶的安全，直接影响到港口的竞争力和经济效益。
在港口，船舶进出港需要拖轮拖引，由于船舶的进出是一个离散随机事件(船舶大小、载重吨及进出港时间均是随机的)，因此为拖轮船队的合理配置带来一定的难度。一方面可能造成港口船舶等待拖引时间加长，另一方面可能造成拖轮利用率低，造成港口资源的浪费。因此，对拖轮配置进行优化研究，提出拖轮数量及马力分配的合理方案，以适应港口的发展，具有重要的现实意义。
本文在对天津港拖轮配置及作业状况分析的基础上，提出了目前港口拖轮配置所存在的问题：应用统计资料及计算机仿真手段，对拖轮工作过程进行仿真；通过不同配置方案的运行结果，为决策提供参考依据。同时对天津港的吞吐量发展及大型船舶进出港的趋势进行了分析，并把拖轮营运与港口生产的发展结合起来，对下述问题进行具体分析：
1、结合天津港2005年吞吐量的发展(1.4亿吨)以及15万吨级船舶进出天津港的需求，分析对港口拖轮的数量和马力配置；
2、拖轮船队的结构如何适应2010年天津港吞吐量将达2亿吨的要求；
3、随着天津港航道的不断拓宽，双向航行将被允许，进出港船舶可随时而无须集中进行。针对这种变化，研究拖轮的利用率的变化以及对整个船队规划的影响。
With the growth of the world trade amount and the development of the port operation, freight-shipping expands to large-bulk. Specially, more and more bulk shipping are used for staple freights ocean-shipping. And market competition becomes sharp day and day after our country entered WTO. To Tianjin Port, shipping putting in also becomes bulky, along with the extension and rebuilding of deep-water port-lane and wharf, and with the standing increase of the shipping's load. Whether or not a port has capacity of lading and unloading in large quantity, and whether or not a port can ensure shipping putting in or leaving in time directly influence the competition and economic benefit of the port.
Shipping putting in or leaving a port needs tugboat to tow. Because putting in or leaving a port is a stochastic and discrete matter (shipping 's size, load and the time of putting in or leaving a port are all stochastic), there is definite difficulty in tugboat's marshaling. One side, the difficulty maybe lengthen towing-time for which the shipping must wait; the other side, the difficulty may low the tugboat's utilization ratio, which wastes the port's resource. So it is real significant for suiting the development of the port to study the optimization of the tugboat marshaling in reason and bring forward a reasonable project on tugboat number and horsepower distribution.
Based on analyzing the tugboat's marshaling mode and operation status in Tianjin Port, this article put forward present questions of tugboat marshaling, used statistical data and computer simulation means to simulate the process of the tugboat operation, and provided consult basis for decision-making which was based on the different running results of the respective tugboat marshaling projects. Meanwhile, the increase of throughout and the trend of bulk shipping putting in or leaving Tianjin Port were analyzed. Then the article detailed analyzed the following questions through jointing the tugboat marshaling and the port operation:
1. Analyzing the tugboats' number and horsepower marshaling mode in Tianjin Port, based on the development of throughout in 2005 (which may be 140
millions ton) and the requirement of 150,000-ton-shipping putting in and leaving the port;
2. How to organize the marshaling structure of tugboat-fleet to adjust the requirement in 2010, when the throughout of Tianjin Port will come to 200 millions ton;
3. Studying the change of the tugboat utilization ratio and the influence of the whole layout of tugboat-fleet, in accordance with the change which shipping putting in or leaving the port will be random and needn't concrete operation, along with widening the port-lane and allowing the two-way shipping.
引文
[1] 苏永刚．以港口为中心促进我国物流的发展．江苏省交通厅网站．2001
[2] 王成宝．国外21个港口拖轮情况介绍．水运管理．2001 (4)
[3] 发展我国船舶的大型化和规模势在必行．造船论坛，http://nsl.chinashipbuilding.com/zcld/zcl204.htm
[4] 1999中国航运发展报告《第2章国际航运与国内航运》，http://www.moc.gov.cn/gaikuang/WATER/06-058A.htm
[5] 苏萍．关于内河船舶使用年限的探讨．水运科学研究所学报．2001 (4)
[6] 交通部．2001-2010年公路水路交通行业政策及产业发展序列目录．2001．http://www.transonline.com.cn/transbus/jtbdt/20010620_1.html
[7] 魏家福．两次创业-中远集团的发展之路．世界500强与中国大型企业研讨会论文．2000.http://www-trs.beic.gov.cn/macro-econ/jp565.html
[8] 谢新连．航线配置与船队规划研究．1999．http://www.dalian-info.com/dlkj/cgzl/2000dj/xm_b/p296.htm
[9] 熊光楞，彭毅等．先进仿真技术与仿真环境．国防工业出版社．1997
[10] 李仲学，赵文广，李翠平．离散事件仿真及其应用的某些新进展．计算机仿真．1999 (4)
[11] 陈放．机械化施工机群配置优化问题的研究．筑路机械与施工机械化．1996 (5)
[12] 郑录社．高等级公路路面施工机械最优配置．西安公路交通大学学报．1998 (4)
[13] 朱宝江，确定港口流动机械合理拥有量的数学模型．中国设备管理．2000 (11)
[14] 刘志雄．设备合理拥有量模型的研究．港口装卸．2001 (2)
[15] 杨国平，隐枚举法在工程机械优化配置中的应用．公路．1998 (4)
[16] 北仑—武钢矿石进江江海直达驳运输船队优化．船海工程．2001 (4)
[17] 柳严兵．不确定性管理及其应用．水运管理．2001 (4)
[18] 张德洪．运输船舶船型技术经济论证方法．人民交通出版社．1989
[19] Osman Balci, Glasow, P. Muessig, E. Page, S. Solick, S. Youngblood. Department of Defense Verification, Validation and Accreditation(VV&A) Recommended Practice Guide. Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, Alexandria, VA, 1996
[20] Paulo Rech Wagner, etc. A New Paradigm for Visual Interactive Modeling and Simulation. The Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 1997
[21] 谢宗琪，乔新．分布式交互仿真技术的理论与实现．南京航空航天大学学报．1998 (1)
[22] Shannon,R.E,Intelligent Simulation Environment.Proceedings of SCSC,1986
[23] 徐云飞，李海鹰等．面向对象的智能仿真系统．系统仿真学报．1998 (4)
[24] 屠仁寿，李伯虎，王正中．当前仿真方法学发展中的若干问题．系统仿真学报．1998 (1)
[25] 白方周，方瑾，张文明．国外定性仿真应用评述．系统仿真学报．1998 (4)
[26] 常发亮，刘长有．自动化立体仓库输送系统调度的优化仿真及其应用研究．系统仿真学报．1998 (5)
[27] 黄红选，徐文江，冯允成．离散事件系统仿真中的优化算法．计算机仿真．1997 (2)