摘要
房地产业是反映一国社会经济发展状态和人民生活水平的标志性产业,房地产业的发展有力地促进着整个国民经济的可持续发展。证券市场中房地产板块是投资者重点关注的热门板块,房地产板块的上市公司多为房地产行业当中规模大、实力强、资产质量优的企业。本文以房地产行业上市公司为研究对象,对房地产上市公司进行投资价值分析和评价。
上市公司投资价值分析是一个系统工程,它依次包括宏观、中观和微观三个层面的分析。宏观层面的分析是判断投资的宏观经济环境,包括国内外的经济状况及前景,其目的在于选择适当的投资机会。本文在宏观经济形势分析方面,以国家统计局公布的经济发展数据为基础,从整体经济形势到行业的具体经济发展态势,总结出国民经济正持续健康快速发展,宏观经济环境良好,适合投资者进行投资的结论。中观层面本文分析了房地产行业的发展概况、行业特点、发展潜力以及存在的问题,总结出房地产行业未来的发展趋势良好,从中长期投资的角度来看,具备投资价值的结论。
微观层面的分析,本文首先确立了投资价值评价的指标体系,从盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、股本扩张能力和发展能力五个方面选取每股收益、主营业务利润率、总资产净利润率、净资产收益率、资产负债率、流动比率、速动比率、总资产周转率、存货周转率、应收账款周转率、每股净资产、每股资本公积金、每股未分配利润、总资产增长率、主营业务收入增长率和净利润增长率等十六项财务指标建立投资价值评价体系。之后筛选了沪深两市60家房地产上市公司为研究样本,整理了2005年—2009年60家上市公司的年报数据,使用熵权双基点法进行投资价值分析,最后得出了投资价值排序,提出了投资策略建议。
本文以理论和实证相结合的研究方法展开,以期通过本项研究丰富和完善适合我国国情的投资价值分析方法。与此同时,本文对于投资者的投资决策可以起到理论指导和决策借鉴作用。
The industry of real estate can be regarded as a kind of mark to the society’s economy development state and people’s living standard of a country. The development of real estate industry has given a great boost to sustainable development of national economy. The plate of real estate industry in negotiable securities market is one of the hottest parts that investigators pay much attention to. The listed companies in real estate plate mostly belong to the ones with large scale, great power and excellent assets. This paper mainly takes the listed companies in real estate as the research objects to analyze the investment value and make an evaluation.
The investment value analysis of the listed companies is a systematic project which includes three levels: macroscopic, medium and microcosmic analyses. In macroscopic level, this paper mainly judges the macroscopic economy environment for investment which includes the foreign and domestic economic state and prospect. The purpose is to choose proper chance to invest. In analyzing macroscopic economy trend, this paper is based on the economy development data which is proclaimed by State Statistical Bureau .It also makes conclusions that national economy of our country is in a sustainable and healthy development state and that macroscopic economy environment is good which is suitable for investigators to invest. In medium level, this paper mainly analyzes the general situation of real estate industry’s development, characteristics of this industry, its development potential as well as its existing problems and risks. It also makes conclusions that the development trend of real estate industry is good and that it is equipped with the investment value from a perspective of medium or long investment.
In microcosmic level, this paper sets the index system of investment value evaluation firstly which is based on the following sixteen commercial indexes: per-share earnings, margin of main business, net margin profit of total assets, yield rate of net asset, asset–liability ratio, current ratio, quick ratio, total asset turnover ratio, inventory turnover ratio , accounts receivable turnover ratio, per-share net asset, per-share capital fund , per-share undistributed profit, total asset growth rate, income growth rate of main business and net profit growth rate. All these indexes are chosen from five aspects: profitability, debt paying ability, service ability, capital stock expanding ability and development ability. Then sixty listed real estate companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market are chosen as research samples. What’s more, this paper sorts out sixty companies’annual report data from 2005-2009. The method of entropy-weighted double base points is used to analyze the investigation value evaluation .Finally this paper makes an investment evaluation sequence and gives some investment strategy suggestions.
This paper begins with the combination method of theory and real evidence and the purpose is to enrich and perfect the investment value evaluation method suitable to our country’s condition. At the same time, this paper can be seen as a theory guidance or a reference to investigators’strategy.
引文
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