摘要
能源作为现代社会发展不可或缺的生产、生活资料,在国民经济和社会进步中起着基础性作用,推进城市化进程离不开能源的投入。目前我国正跨入城市化高速发展的中期阶段,因此随着我国经济发展、人口持续增长和城市化的进一步推进,能源问题已经成为我国经济增长和城市化发展的瓶颈之一。在此背景下,本文综合运用城市经济学、能源经济学和现代计量技术,采用理论分析与实证检验相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究思路,系统研究了我国能源消费与城市化之间相互影响、制约关系,不仅具有重要的理论意义,而且具有很重要的政策意义。本文主要研究成果包括:
在考察我国城市化和能源消费现状的基础上,分别构建了城市化和能源消费的综合评价指标体系,对我国1981-2007年的城市化和能源利用质量进行了综合评价分析。进一步,基于ARCH类模型分析了我国能源消费的波动特性;利用熵变方程法和状态协调度等模型,对我国当前能源消费与城市化之间的协调状况进行分析。
综合运用协整理论、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等现代计量经济学方法与技巧,以我国1981-2007年时间序列为基础,对城市化与能源消费的动态关联性进行实证分析,区别考察了我国人口城市化、城市化综合指数与能源消费之间的长期均衡与短期动态关系。
为更能准确把握我国城市化进程中的能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,在检测我国能源消费与经济增长之间关系因外部冲击发生结构突变时机的基础上,运用协整技术和误差修正模型分析了我国能源消费与经济增长的长期均衡与短期动态关系,并将其与不考虑结构突变的情形进行了比较分析。
在考虑资本、劳动力和能源三种投入要素的三要素二级嵌套CES生产函数的基础上,对经典“增长尾效”模型进行修正,构建了能源约束对经济增长和城市进程的“增长尾效”模型,测算了能源约束对我国经济增长与城市化进程的制约程度。
对城市化影响能源消费的机理进行系统地梳理、阐述和分析,指出城市化能够通过产业结构优化效应、投资拉动效应、劳动力投入与人力资本积累效应、技术创新和技术进步效应、制度变迁效应和能源消费结构的改善效应等六个方面来影响能源消费。在此基础上构建了城市化影响能源消费的实证模型,进而基于我国1981-2007年的时间序列从长短期多角度探讨了城市化对能源消费的影响程度及传导途径,在实证的基础上,阐明了以节能为目标的前提下我国城市化进程中所要关注的问题。
以电力市场中发电上网电价波动预测,发电商售电、供电商购电风险管理决策模型为例,从微观角度探讨了如何在城市化进程中建立健全能源市场、实施有效的能源市场风险管理,以维护能源市场的稳定运行、确保城市化进程中能源的充足供应。
As indispensable material base for production and subsistence in the modern society, energy plays a fundamental role in the national economy and the social progress.The process of urbanization can not be separated from the input of energy.At present,China is entering the mid-stage of the high speed development of urbanization,therefore along with country economic development,the population sustained growth and the urbanized further advancement,the energy issue has become one of bottlenecks of economic growth and urbanization in China.Under this background,besides synthetically utilizing the theories of urban economics,energy economics and modern econometric methods,this article also applies the research ideas,which together theoretical analysis with empirical tests,and together qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,to study the relationship of mutual influence and restriction between urbanization and energy consumption systematically.It is not only has great theoretical significance but also has very important policy implications.
The main research objects and resuls are as follows:
1.Based on the inspections concerning the present situations of urbanization and energy consumption in China,comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and energy consumption are constructed respectively,and comprehensive evaluation analysis on the quality of urbanization and energy using of 1981-2007 in China are carried out.Further,the characteristics of energy consumption fluctuations in China are analyzed by ARCH kinds models.Using some methods such as the entropy equation law and the condition cooperates models,the harmony relationship between energy consumption and urbanization in China are synthetically evaluated.
2.Comprehensive using modern econometric methods and techniques such as cointegration theory,error correction model,Granger causality tests,impulse response function and variance decomposition to time series,the dynamic correlation between China urbanization and energy consumption of 1981-2007 are empirical analysis.And distinguish investigated the long-run equilibrium and the short-term dynamic relationship between China urbanization of population,the urbanized composite index and energy consumption.
3.To grasp more accurately the relationship of energy consumption and economic growth in the process of urbanization in China,analyzes the occasion in which the structural break of the relation between economic growth and energy consumption in China will be lead to,the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic between energy demand and economic in China is studied with cointegration theory and error correction model,and compared with the model with not considering structural break.
4.Based on the two-level nested CES production function which consider threes elements of capital,labor and energy,the classic“growth drag”model is revised,the“growth drag”model of energy constraint on economic growth and urbanization process are constructed,then the restriction degree of energy constraint on China's economic growth and urbanization are analysis by this model.According to the above proposed the path selection process which can alleviate the energy constraints on economic growth and urbanization advancement.
5.This dissertation probes into the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy consumption,indicates that urbanization can influence energy consumption through six aspects effects of the industrial organization optimization,the investment drawing,labor input and human capital accumulation,the technological innovation and the technology advancement,the institutional vicissitude and the structure of energy consumption improvement.And the empirical models of urbanization influence to energy consumption is constructed,then discuss the effect degree and effect mechanism of urbanization to energy consumption by mean of multiple perspectives of short and long-term based on the data from 1981 to 2007 in China.On the base of empirical evidence,expound what kind of city model should be choosed to energy-saving target.
6.Take the pool purchase price fluctuation forecasting,the risk management decision-making models of power selling for electricity generators and electricity purchasing for power-supplying company in the electricity market as examples,from the micro-perspective to discuss how to build regular energy market and apply risk management to maintain stable energy market operation and guarantee sufficient energy supply in the process of urbanization.
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