摘要
土地利用／覆被变化(Land Use and Land Cover Change, LUCC)是当前全球环境变化研究的前沿领域。利用土地利用情景模拟模型揭示自然环境与人类活动之间的动态反馈关系,深入解析土地经营者的土地利用行为选择的影响因素、决策过程以及决策导致的土地利用变化行为,明确土地经营者的土地利用行为选择机制,是揭示LUCC微观行为机制的一个有效途径。
本文首先利用航片和测量数据获得的土地利用现状图,探讨了高西沟村土地利用变化的时空分异规律,在此基础上,利用CA-Markov(Cellular Automata,简称CA)模型分析了模拟未来土地利用格局的最适尺度,并基于此最适尺度预测了未来土地利用格局。然后,从微观上借助多层次模型分析了高西沟村农户土地利用决策的影响因素,尝试揭示该村土地利用变化的微观驱动机制,以期对该村土地利用变化有更好的理解。结论主要集中在以下几个方面：
(1)高西沟村土地利用的时空分异规律。高西沟村土地利用数量变化上表现为耕地、天然草地面积减少,林地、人工草地面积增加;土地利用变化程度总体上呈现稳步减小趋势,且2002-2009年已表现为调整稳定期；从土地利用转移分析得知高西沟村土地利用类型转移的主要特征是耕地、天然草地的转出,经济林地、人工草地的转入。
(2)土地利用变化预测最适尺度的确定。本文分别在10个空间尺度数据图层上模拟高西沟村土地利用情况,并使用实际数据对模拟结果进行精度检验,得出最适的预测尺度是5m×5m,最后在最适预测尺度数据图层上预测了研究区2016年土地利用格局。预测结果表明高西沟村2009-2016年土地利用变化区域主要在该村的阳山上,尤其是耕地和经济林交错种植的地块变化较为明显,且土地利用变化主要是耕地转为人工草地、经济林地,与2002-2009年的土地利用变化趋势基本一致。
(3)微观土地利用影响因素的确定。本文应用多层次模型,从微观尺度和中观尺度上分析农户土地利用决策的影响因素,研究结果表明农户种植土豆、谷子的行为决策不仅与地块的自然因素有关,还与农户的社会经济因素有关,且二者的影响因素中地块层次因素差异较小,农户层次因素差异较大。得出的结论与实地调查情况相符,说明多层次模型可以用来从多尺度上分析土地利用决策的影响因素,为研究土地利用决策机制提供了一种可借鉴的方法。
Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the frontier research of the current global environmental change. It is a useful way to explore LUCC micro behaviour mechanism by revealing dynamic feedback relationship between physical environment and human activities through land use scenario simulation models and studying on factors influencing landholder's choices, decision-making process, and land use change outcomes.
This article firstly explored the land use change in spatial distribution and temporal at Gao Xi-gou Village by aerial photos and current land use map obtained by measurement dates. On this basis, it simulated future land use change by using CA-Markov (Cellular Automata, referred to as CA) model and predicted the future land use on the optimal scale. Further in order to better understand the land use change in micro-scale, this article analyzed the factors of affecting household's land-use decision-making by multi-level model, and revealed the micro-pattern of the village land-use change driven mechanism. Some conclusions were put forward as follows:
(1) This article revealed the rule of spatial and temporal variation of land use of the study area. The natural grassland area declined, woodland increased during last 50 years; In general, the extent of land use change showed steadily decreasing trend, and between the year 2002 and 2009 the land use change of the study area has been in the stable adjustment period; The land transfer result showed that the characteristic of the land use transformation decreased in the cultivated land and natural grass land, and increased in economic forest land and artificial grassland.
(2) The land use change of the optimal scale was analysized through CA-Markov model. The optimal scale of measure was 5m×5m by validation and using it to predict the land use in 2016. The results showed that the land use change area from 2009 to 2016 was mainly taken place in the village Yang-shan region, especially in farmland and economic forest interlaced plots, and the land use change type was from arable land to pasture and the economy woodland between the year of 2002 and 2009.
(3) This article analyzed the impact factors of household's land use decision-making in the micro-scale and meso-scale by multi-level model. The results showed that the household's decision-making of planting potatoes and millet was related to the natural factors and the socio-economic factors, and the socio-economic factors played the main effect. The result showed that the multi-level model could be used to analyze the multi-scale factors of the land use decision-making and this research provided a way of studying the household's land use decision-making.
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