摘要
土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use and Land Cover Change, LUCC)是当前全球环境变化研究的前沿领域。利用土地利用情景模拟模型揭示自然环境与人类活动之间的动态反馈关系,深入解析土地经营者的土地利用行为选择的影响因素、决策过程以及决策导致的土地利用变化行为,明确土地经营者的土地利用行为选择机制,是揭示LUCC微观行为机制的一个有效途径。
本文首先利用航片和测量数据获得的土地利用现状图,探讨了高西沟村土地利用变化的时空分异规律,在此基础上,利用CA-Markov(Cellular Automata,简称CA)模型分析了模拟未来土地利用格局的最适尺度,并基于此最适尺度预测了未来土地利用格局。然后,从微观上借助多层次模型分析了高西沟村农户土地利用决策的影响因素,尝试揭示该村土地利用变化的微观驱动机制,以期对该村土地利用变化有更好的理解。结论主要集中在以下几个方面:
(1)高西沟村土地利用的时空分异规律。高西沟村土地利用数量变化上表现为耕地、天然草地面积减少,林地、人工草地面积增加;土地利用变化程度总体上呈现稳步减小趋势,且2002-2009年已表现为调整稳定期;从土地利用转移分析得知高西沟村土地利用类型转移的主要特征是耕地、天然草地的转出,经济林地、人工草地的转入。
(2)土地利用变化预测最适尺度的确定。本文分别在10个空间尺度数据图层上模拟高西沟村土地利用情况,并使用实际数据对模拟结果进行精度检验,得出最适的预测尺度是5m×5m,最后在最适预测尺度数据图层上预测了研究区2016年土地利用格局。预测结果表明高西沟村2009-2016年土地利用变化区域主要在该村的阳山上,尤其是耕地和经济林交错种植的地块变化较为明显,且土地利用变化主要是耕地转为人工草地、经济林地,与2002-2009年的土地利用变化趋势基本一致。
(3)微观土地利用影响因素的确定。本文应用多层次模型,从微观尺度和中观尺度上分析农户土地利用决策的影响因素,研究结果表明农户种植土豆、谷子的行为决策不仅与地块的自然因素有关,还与农户的社会经济因素有关,且二者的影响因素中地块层次因素差异较小,农户层次因素差异较大。得出的结论与实地调查情况相符,说明多层次模型可以用来从多尺度上分析土地利用决策的影响因素,为研究土地利用决策机制提供了一种可借鉴的方法。
Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the frontier research of the current global environmental change. It is a useful way to explore LUCC micro behaviour mechanism by revealing dynamic feedback relationship between physical environment and human activities through land use scenario simulation models and studying on factors influencing landholder's choices, decision-making process, and land use change outcomes.
This article firstly explored the land use change in spatial distribution and temporal at Gao Xi-gou Village by aerial photos and current land use map obtained by measurement dates. On this basis, it simulated future land use change by using CA-Markov (Cellular Automata, referred to as CA) model and predicted the future land use on the optimal scale. Further in order to better understand the land use change in micro-scale, this article analyzed the factors of affecting household's land-use decision-making by multi-level model, and revealed the micro-pattern of the village land-use change driven mechanism. Some conclusions were put forward as follows:
(1) This article revealed the rule of spatial and temporal variation of land use of the study area. The natural grassland area declined, woodland increased during last 50 years; In general, the extent of land use change showed steadily decreasing trend, and between the year 2002 and 2009 the land use change of the study area has been in the stable adjustment period; The land transfer result showed that the characteristic of the land use transformation decreased in the cultivated land and natural grass land, and increased in economic forest land and artificial grassland.
(2) The land use change of the optimal scale was analysized through CA-Markov model. The optimal scale of measure was 5m×5m by validation and using it to predict the land use in 2016. The results showed that the land use change area from 2009 to 2016 was mainly taken place in the village Yang-shan region, especially in farmland and economic forest interlaced plots, and the land use change type was from arable land to pasture and the economy woodland between the year of 2002 and 2009.
(3) This article analyzed the impact factors of household's land use decision-making in the micro-scale and meso-scale by multi-level model. The results showed that the household's decision-making of planting potatoes and millet was related to the natural factors and the socio-economic factors, and the socio-economic factors played the main effect. The result showed that the multi-level model could be used to analyze the multi-scale factors of the land use decision-making and this research provided a way of studying the household's land use decision-making.
引文
[1]刘东生.全球变化与可持续发展科学.地学前缘.2002,9(1):1-9
[2]史培军,江源等.土地利用/覆被变化与生态安全响应机制[M].北京.科学出版社.2004
[3]Costanza R, Ruth M. Using dynamoic modeling to cope environmental problems and build consensus [J]. Environm enta Management,1998,22:183-195
[4]Ferber J. Multi-Agent Systems:An Introduction to Distributed Artificial Intelligence[M]. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.,1999
[5]葛全胜,陈泮勤,方修琦,等.全球变化的区域适应研究:挑战与研究对策[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4):516-524
[6]Evans T.P., Hugh K. Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:57-72
[7]Geoghegan J, Sergio C.V. Modeling tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatan peninsular region: comparing survey and satellite data[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:25-46
[8]Lambin E.F. Modeling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions[J]. Progress in Physical Geography,1997,21:375-393
[9]Lambin E.F, Rounsevell M.D.A, Geist H.J. Are agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity[J]. Agricultural, Ecosystems and Environmental,2000,82:321-331
[10]Verburg P.H, Veldkamp A., Fresco L.O. Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China[J]. Applied Gerography,1999,19:211-233
[11]Purnomo H, Guillermo A. Developing multi-stake holder forest management scenarios:A multi-agent system simulationapp roach applied in Indonesia[J]. Forest Policy and Economics,2005,7:475-491
[12]Torrens P.M, Sullivan D.O. Cellular automata and urban simulation:Where do we go from here?[J]. Environment and Planning B,2001,28 (2):163-68
[13]Veldamp A., Fresco L.O. CLUE:A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects[J]. Ecological Model,1996,85:253-270
[14]何春阳,史培军,陈晋,等.北京城市化过程与机制分析[J].地理学报,2002,57(3):363-371
[15]史培军,江源,等.土地利用/覆盖变化与生态安全响应机制[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[16]Turner B.L. Vulnerability as a human-environmental interaction:Example from Southern Yucatan [R]. Abtracts of Global Change Open Science Conference. Congrex Holland BV. Amsterdam, The Netherland,2001
[17]蔡运龙.土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径[J].地理研究,2001,20(6):645-652
[18]李秀彬.土地利用变化的解释[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(3):195-203
[19]张小林,盛明.中国乡村地理学研究的重新定向[J].人文地理,2002,17(1):81-84
[20]宋长青,冷疏影.21世纪中国地理学综合研究的主要领域[J].地理学报,2005,60(4):546-552
[21]张保华,谷艳芳等.农业景观格局演变及其生态效应研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2007,6(1):114-121
[22]张广胜,周虹等.基于农民视角的新农村建设.现状及思考[J].农业经济问题.2006,10:43-48
[23]钟太洋,黄贤金.农户层面土地利用变化研究综述[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(3):341-352
[24]柴彦威.行为地理学研究的方法论问题[J].地域研究与开发,2005,24(2):1-5
[25]Aitken S.C., Rushton G. Perceptual and Behavioral Theory in Practice[J]. Progress in Human Geography,1993,17(3):378-388
[26]郑杭生,汪雁.农户经济理论再议[J].学海,2005,3:66-75
[27]Dumanski J.W, Pettaoiece W, Mcgregor R. J. Relevance of scale dependent approaches for integrating biophysical and socio-economic information and development of agroecological indicators[J]. Nutrient Cycling in Agro ecosystems,1998,50:13-22
[28]Swallt R.O, Woodmansee R.G, Risser P.G. Eds. Scale and global change[M]. Spatial and Temporal Variability in Biospheric and Geospheric Processes. SCOPE 35, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, U K,1998,355
[29]Easterlling W. E. Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modeling of global change processes[J]. Global Environmental Change,1997,7:337-356
[30]柯长青,欧阳晓莹.基于元胞自动机模型的城市空间变化模拟研究进展[J].南京大学学报,自然科学版,2006,42(1):104-111
[31]White R.W. Cellular automata and fractal urban form:a cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban land use patterns[J]. Environment and Planning A,1993,25(8):1175-1199
[32]White R.W, Engelen G. Cellular Dynamics and GIS:Modeling Spatial Complexity, Geographical Systems,1994,1:237-253
[33]Clark K.C, Gaydos L.J. Loose-Coupling a Cellular Automation Model and GIS:Long-term Urban Growth Prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore, Int.J.Geographical Information Sciences,1998,12(7):699-714
[34]White R.W. Cellular automata and fractal urban form:a cellular modeling approach to theevolution of urban land use patterns[J]. Environment and Planning A,1993,25:1175-1189。
[35]White R.W, Engelen G. Cellular Dynamics and GIS:Modeling Spatial Complexity, Geographical Systems,1994:237-253
[36]武晓波等.细胞自动机模型用于城市发展模拟的方法初探[J].城市规划,2002,26(8):69-73
[37]何春阳,史培军,陈晋,等.基于系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究[J]中国科学D辑地球科学,2005,35(5):464-473
[38]Ward D. P, Murray A.T, Phinn S.R. A stochastically constrained cellular model of urban growth. Computer, Environment and Urban System,2000,24:539-558
[39]Yeh A. G, Li X. Errors and uncertainties in urban cellular automata. Computers, Environment and UrbanSystems,2006,30(1):10-21
[40]张显峰,崔伟宏.集成GSI和细胞自动机模型进行地理时空过程模拟与预测的新方法[J],测绘学报,2002,30(2):145-155
[41]赖日文,孟宪宇,王婷婷.基于GIS与CA模型的小城镇土地利用规划研究[J].现代城市研究, 2006(1):48-51
[42]彭明军.元胞自动机在城市增长研究与实践中的应用.城市规划与国土资源,2002(2):20-24
[43]Wu F, Webster C J. Simulating artificial cities in a GIS environment:Urban growth under alternative regulative regimes. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2000,14(7):625-648
[44]Pontius R.G, Joseph D.C, Charles A.S. Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change withGEOMOD2:Application and validation for Costa Rica. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:191-203
[45]Douglas P.W, Alan T.M, Stuart R.P. Integrating spatial optimization and cellular automata for evaluatingurban change. Ann. Reg. Sci.,2003,37:131-148
[46]邱炳文,陈崇成.基于多日标决策CA模型的土地利用变化预测模型及其应用[J].地理科学,2008,63(2):165-174
[47]熊利亚等.基于地理元胞自动机的土地利用变化研究[J].资源科学,2005,27(4):38-43
[48]侯西勇,常斌,于信芳.基于CA-Markov的河西走廊土地利用变化研究[J],农业工程学报,2004,20(5),28-19
[49]杨国清,刘耀林,吴志峰.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用格局变化研究[J],武汉大学学报,2007,32(5):414-418
[50]Marco G.A. H. First principles of the Mame Luke multi-actor modeling framework for land use change, illustrated with a Philippine case study[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:5-21
[51]Ligtenberg A, Monica W. A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial plannin [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:43-55
[52]Peter H. V, Tom V, Johan B. Land use change under conditions of high population pressure:the case of Java[J]. Global Environmental Change,1999(9):303-312
[53]Koen P. O, Peter H. V. Multilevel modeling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines[J]. Agricultural Systems,2006,89:435-456
[54]Evans T. P, Hugh K. Multi2scale analysis of a household level agent2based model of land cover change[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:57-72
[55]Jacqueline G, Sergio C. Vi. Modeling tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatan peninsular region: Comparing survey and satellite data[J]. Agriculture Ecosystem s and Environment,2001,85:25-46
[56]Torrens P.M, Sullivan D. O. Cellular automata and urban simulation:Where do we go from here[J]. Environment and Planning B,2001,28 (2):163-68.
[57]邱炳文.福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因子的尺度效应分析[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(1):70-78
[58]王天巍,李朝霞,史志华,等.都市圈边缘区多尺度土地利用驱动力研究[J].华中农业大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(4):471-477
[59]Goldstein. H.1995. Multilevel statistical models. Kendalls Library of Statistics, Vol.3. London: Edward Arnold
[60]张有全,宫辉力,赵文吉,等.北京市1990年—2000年土地利用变化机制分析[J].资源科学, 2007,29(3):206-213
[61].Overmars K.P, Verburg P.H. Multilevel modelling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines, Agricultural Systems,2006, (23):435-456
[62]Polsky C, Easterling W.2001. Adaptation to climate variability and change in the US Great Plains:A multi-scale analysis of Ricardian climate sensitivities. Ag Ecosys Environ 85:133-44
[63]Pan W, Bilsborrow R. The use of a multilevel statistical model to analyze factors influencing land use:a study of the Ecuadorian Amazon[J]. Global Planetary Change,2005,47(2),32-52
[64]JohnM G. Farmer participation in research:a model for adaptive research and education[J]. American Journal of A Internative Agricuture,1992,7 (3):118-121
[65]John F. A drienne M Martin. Farmer participatory research:a review of concepts and recentfieldwork[J]. Agric A dm in & Extension,1988,29:247-264
[66]http://www.sociology.cass.cn/shxw/software/mla.htm
[67]李丽娟,杨俊伟,姜德娟等.20世纪90年代无定河流域土地利用的时空变化[J].地理研究,2005,24(4):527-534
[68]荆玉平,张树文,匡文慧.20世纪70年代中期以来奈曼旗土地利用变化及生态环境效应研究[J]干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(3):20-25
[69]徐春迪,基于35技术的宝鸡市金渭两区土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2006
[70]李忠锋,王一谋,冯毓荪等.基于RS与GIS的榆林地区土地利用变化分析[J].水土保持学报,2003,17(2):97-99
[71]刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究—基于卫星遥感数据[J].第四纪研究,2000,20(3):229-239
[72]刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究—基于卫星遥感数据[J].第四纪研究,2000,20(3):229-239
[73]Holling C.wS. Cross scale morphology, geometry and dynamicsof ecosystems[J]. Ecological Monographs,1992,62(4):447-502
[74]布仁仓,常禹,胡远满,等.基于Kappa系数的景观变化测度[J].生态学报,2005,25(4):778-784
[75]李晓亮,赵智杰,黄钱.塔里木河下游垦区耕地面积变化及驱动力的多层次分析[J],安徽农业科学,2008,36(9):3830-3834
[76]周皓,巫锡炜,流动儿童的教育绩效及其影响因素:多层线性模型分析[J].人口研究,2008,32(4):22-32
[77]刘德智,朱建宝.介绍一种教育研究统计软件HLM——多层线形模型[J].计算机在化学中的应用,2004,31(8):61-62
[78]刘建波,王桂新,魏星.基于嵌套Logit模型的中国省际人口二次迁移影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2004,28(4):48-56
[79]杨会芹,何俊华,多层线性模型在心理和教育纵向研究中的运用[J],石家庄学院学报,2005, 10(3):71-75
[80]郭志刚等译.多层次线性模型:应用于分析方法[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2007
[81]邱皓政译,郭志刚校.多层次模型分析导论[M].重庆大学出版社,2007