摘要
近年来,分布式水文模型在GIS、遥感以及计算机技术的支撑下发展迅速。它能较客观地反映气候和下垫面因子的空间分布对流域降雨径流形成的影响,为模拟流域降雨径流形成的物理过程提供了一种有效的方法。分布式水文模型的参数具有较为明确的物理意义,解决了参数间的不独立性和不确定性问题,便于在无实测水文资料的地区推广应用。
本文在回顾国内外分布式水文模型研究进展的基础上,选择大尺度分布式概念水文模型——VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)模型,在中国湿润地区进行了针对土壤参数方面的应用研究。总结了近年来VIC模型,尤其是其参数在国内外的研究进展。结合模型原理对模型运算程序的结构进行了分析。选择了中国湿润地区的外洲等八个典型流域进行了模拟试验,采用50km×50km网格对流域进行划分,模拟结果表明,VIC模型在中国湿润地区有比较好的适用性。在确定其他参数的前提下,分别率定了模型的饱和容量曲线形状参数B,与基流相关的参数Ds、Dsmax、Ws,土层厚度参数d1、d2、d3等七个土壤参数。
基于模拟试验研究,本文运用敏感度法,计算七个土壤参数对多年径流相对误差(模拟与实测多年径流总量的相对误差)和模型效率系数(模拟与实测径流过程的吻合程度)的敏感度,分析这七个土壤参数对模拟结果的敏感性,结果表明第二层土壤厚度d2对多年径流相对误差比较敏感;饱和容量曲线形状参数B对模型效率系数比较敏感,其他五个参数对二者都不太敏感。
本文通过对七个土壤参数敏感性的分析,提出了采用“均值参数”(本研究中外洲等八个典型流域参数率定值的均值)的参数移植方案。基于对中国湿润地区气候、土壤、植被分布的分区,提出了分区法参数移植方案。并分别应用于中国湿润地区,结果表明二者都是可行的,并对两种方案进行了对比分析。
基于对中国湿润地区VIC模型七个土壤参数的研究,本文对中国湿润地区VIC模型的参数区域化问题进行了初步探讨。
At present, with the development of GIS, Remote System, and computer technology, the distributed hydrological model has quickly developed. It can impersonally reflect the effect that the dimensional distribution factors of the climatic and land surface have on the form of rainfall-runoff. And it provides an effective tool to simulate the physical process of rainfall-runoff. Its parameters have unambiguous physical meaning. The model has solved the problem of the parameters: pertinency and indefinity. Therefore it can be well applied in the ungauged basins.This paper reviews the internal and overseas development of the distributed hydrological model and that of a distributed conceptual hydrological model, named VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. And, VIC is selected to study the soil parameters in Chinese humid basins. Firstly we study the development of the VIC model, especially the development of the parameters, and then combined the model theory to analyse the compute procedure. Eight representative basins in Chinese humid area such as Waizhou were selected for the modeling experimentation. The basins were divided by 50km × 50km grid. The results prove that the VIC model is good applied in Chinese humid basins. Through the experimentation, seven soil parameters of VIC model have been calibrated, which are the variable infiltration curve parameter (B), three parameters about baseflow(Ds, Dsmax, Ws) and depth parameters of three soil layers (d1, d2, d3). In addition, the other parameters used in the model have been demarcated in this study.Based on the modeling experimentation, this study uses sensitivity method to calculates the sensitivity of the seven soil parameters to the relative error of runoff (the relative error between the simulation and measure runoff) and the efficiency coefficient (the inosculating degree between the simulation and measure data), using the sensitivity theory. And analyze the sensitivity of the seven soil parameters to the simulation results. The results indicate that the depth of the second soil layer is more sensitive to the relative error of runoff than the other parameters. And the variable infiltration curve parameter is more sensitive to the efficiency coefficient than the other parameters.After analyzing the sensitivity of the seven soil parameters, this study produces the "average parameter" as the first blue print, the average of the rating parameters of the eight basins in this study, to transplant parameters in the ungauged basins. Based on the distribution compartmentation of climate, soil, vegetation in Chinese humid areas, this study produces the sub-area method as the second blue print to transplant parameters. And the two methods are applied in Chinese humid areas. The results indicate that the two methods are feasible. Finally, the two methods are contrasted and analysysed.This paper gave some primary discussion on the parameter regionalizing in Chinese humid areas based on the research of the soil parameters of the VIC model.
引文
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