东北区域经济增长中的非正规就业研究
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摘要
非正规就业界定及其在区域经济社会发展中作用一直是理论界和政策制订者聚焦的热点话题。近年来,远比学术争论更能引起人们关注的是,非正规就业已经成为发展中国家乃至发达国家最主要的城市就业渠道和新增就业岗位来源,在其国家的经济生活中发挥着举足轻重的作用。然而目前管理层及研究者们的关注点,还主要局限于非正规就业现象的性质争论层面,对非正规就业虽然有所关注,但给予政策扶持力度不足。为清晰认识经济增长中非正规就业内在作用机理,并引起社会各界更大关注及获得政策扶持,这里选择传统上作为我国老工业基地,现在又面临经济社会转型和国际金融危机双重就业压力的黑、吉、辽东北三省非正规就业问题作为研究的聚焦点。在非正规就业与经济增长理论框架下,综合运用非正规就业规模估算法、问卷调查法、弹性分析、因子分析和回归分析法、国民账户法、劳动力投入法、国内生产总值收入法、劳动需求与就业量决定模型法、人口预测法等,对经济增长中非正规就业贡献及影响因素展开探索性研究,并在此基础上对当前东北地区现有的就业政策进行评估和提出政策建议,以期为实现东北区域经济振兴和充分就业双重目标提供理论参考和实践借鉴。
构建以就业与经济增长理论、非正规就业理论基础上的非正规就业与经济增长理论框架,并在该理论框架下对本研究中涉及到的相关概念进行了辨析和界定,为本研究的合理边界建立清晰的理论框架和理论基础。
通过利用国内外具有代表性的几种统计估算方法对全国和东北地区非正规就业规模进行估算,评估选择出非正规就业规模估算方法,据此计算出东北和全国的非正规就业规模,并对我国东、中、西三大地带进行横向比较。比较发现无论是位于非正规就业快速发展的我国东部地带的辽宁,还是位于非正规就业发展较缓慢的我国中部地带的吉林和黑龙江,非正规就业人数均达到总就业人口比重的1／3左右,非正规就业理应受到政策制订者的重视和支持。
通过弹性分析和回归分析法,验证经济增长与非正规就业两者之间的关系,并与正规就业进行比较,发现转型期内东北非正规就业年均增长率高于正规就业。如以第二、第三产业加总作为城镇国民生产总值并由此计算城镇非正规就业劳动生产率,发现尽管非正规就业自身有着许多负面因素,但仍有较高的劳动生产率,只要对其发展加以有力引导,会对经济增长起到不可忽视的促进作用。分析发现东北非正规就业集中在第三产业,尤其是批发和零售贸易、餐饮业、交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业、社会服务业等。这主要因为其他一些行业如金融业门槛要求高,民间资本进入受到限制,劳动力流动壁垒等原因所致。以发达国家日本为例进行国际比较,发现其和我国东北这方面情况相似。
分析非正规就业对东北经济增长贡献时,首先用格兰杰因果关系检验非正规就业和区域GDP增长关系,避免发生伪回归现象；然后运用国民账户法、劳动力投入法、国内生产总值收入法核算原理,根据劳动报酬占国内生产总值的比重,从收入角度估算非正规经济活动规模,这样有助于完善非正规就业对经济增长的量化方法体系。分析得出东北非正规就业经济贡献达到区域国内生产总值的30%左右,非正规就业对经济增长促进作用明显。
通过构建劳动需求与就业量决定模型,运用主成分分析法和最小二乘回归分析法找出影响和决定非正规就业的关键因素并进行宏观分析,详细阐析投资配置结构、产业结构、劳动力、工资水平、社会保障、劳动关系等影响因素。其次从微观角度进行实证分析,利用社会分层理论,将非正规就业主体内部分为三种不同层次类型,不同层次非正规就业发展途径不同,贡献和意义不同,这有助于针对不同层次类型采用不同的非正规就业优化对策。并且利用案例检验、实地问卷调查、访谈等来检验非正规就业影响因素及特征,从而为政府制定经济增长与就业并重的公共政策提供理论依据。
最后是如何有效促进非正规就业与经济增长协调发展、化解非正规就业效率与公平矛盾、实现市场经济条件下有序和谐的充分就业,为经济增长做出有益的贡献。提出优化非正规就业的积极政策体系,包括调整和优化区域产业结构；发展微型企业扶持创业；提高素质促进非正规就业质量；构建规范有序非正规就业的劳动力市场建设；加强非正规就业经济支持政策。
Defining informal employment and its role in regional economic and social development has always been a hot topic and focus of debate for both acdemic community and policy makers. However, more attracting attention than theoretic debate is that, in recent years, informal employment has played a vital role and become the most important urban employment channel and source of new jobs in developing, and even in developed countries. So far the attention in both academic and policy circles is still focused on quarrels over what is the nature of the phenominen, without effective and practical policy supports for imformal employment. In order to make clear what kind of internal relations existing between informal employment and regional economic growth, and to attract more society attention and to get policy supports for those informally employed, the paper choose informal employment in Heilongjiang,Jinlin and Liaoning Provinces in northeastern China (hereinafter refered to as "Northeastern China" throughout this paper) as research object, for the three northeastern provinces had once served as the nation's traditional old industrial bases, and had once been affected by restructuring effects and recently the global financial crisis. The paper conducts reserch on informal employment contributions to economic grouth as well as elments effecting informal employment, under the theoretic framework of informal employment and economic growth, and by comprehensively using informal employment scale estimation methods, questionaries, elasticity ananlysis, factor and regression analysis, national accounts methods, labour input methods, income GDP methods, labour demand and employment determinantion model, population prediction theory, etc. After that, the research evaluates current employment policy in the northeast, and makes needed recommendations, in attempt to provide theoretic and practical surpport for achieving both aims of regional economic rejuvenization and full employment.
After constructing informal employment and economic growth theoretical framework based on employment and economic growth theory and theories on informal employment, it defined relative concepts in the research under the theory of informal employment and economic growth, providing theoretic basisi for clear research boundaries.
Through use of several representative domestic and foreign statistical methods to estimate the size of informal employment, it assessed different statistical options to choose the optimal one. The scale of informal employment is calculated for Northeastern China and nationwide, and informal employment scale is compared within the three regions named Eastern, Middle and Western China. It shows that share of informal employment for both Liaoning in the Eastern region, where informal employment grows faster, as well as Jilin and Heilongjiang in the Middle China region, where informal employment grows relative slower, all reach as high as 1/3 in total employment, justifying that informal employment should receive dual attention.
Through elexitisity and regression studys and by checks on relationships between economic growth and informal employment, comparison with formal employment found that in the transition period average annual growth rate of informal employment is higher than formal employment. Using sum of secondary and tertiary industries GDP as total urban total and thus calculate the urban informal employment labor productivity,we found that despite number of negative factors informal employment inharitates,it still has relatively high labor productivity, and could play significant role in economic development, as long as their development are strongly guided. Analysis reveals that informal employment focused on the tertiary industry, and mainly concentrated in the wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, transportation, storage and post and telecommunications industry, social services, etc. This was mainly because a number of other industries such financial sector, which has high threshold and limited access to private capital, causing labor mobility barriers. Using Japan as a developed country example to make international comparisons, we found similar phenomenon as in Northeastern China.
In the analysis of informal employment contributions to economic growth in Northeastern China, Granger causality test is conducted to verify of the relationship between GDP growth and informal employment and in order to avoid the phenomenon of pseudo-regression; National accounts methods, labor input methods, and the gross domestic product income accounting principles were applied, use labor compensation share of GDP to estimate scale of informal economic activities from the income point of view.This will help improve quantitative methods for studying informal employment and economic growth. Analysis show that informal employment contribution to economic growth reach around 36%of total GDP in the region.Informal employment play an obvious role in promoting economic growth.
Through constructing labor demand and employment decision model, and then,by using principal component analysis and regression analysis to identify the major factor, the paper conduct macro-level analysis on key factors affecting and key to informal employment decisions.These include detailed interpretation of investment distribution structure factors, industrial structure adjustment factors, labor factors, factors of wage levels, social security factors, labor relations and other factors, respectively. Secondly, when did factual study from micro-analysis point of view, the paper mainly use social stratification theory, the main body of informal employment is divided into three different levels, different levels of informal employment develops in different paths, and with different contributions and significance, which will help to promote informal employment as different types of measures are used for different levels of informal employment levels,.This will provide a useful exploration in the future development of informal employment.Thirdly, use case testing and analysis, field survey and interviews carried out to verify the impact of informal employment factors and their characteristics,so as to provide theoretical basis for the government to develop public policies in which economic growth and employment are both important.
Finally, the paper deals with effective developments between informal employment and economic growth, that is how to resolve contradictions between efficiency and equity in informal employment, and how to reach hamoneous and orderly full employment goals which contributes to economic growth under a market economy condition. The paper puts forward informal employment optimization government policy matrix, which includes restructuring and upgrading regional industries, developing micro-enterprises and support entrepreneurship, improving labour skills to increase informal employment quality, building a standardized and orderly informal employment labor market, and strengthening economic support policies for informal employment.
构建以就业与经济增长理论、非正规就业理论基础上的非正规就业与经济增长理论框架,并在该理论框架下对本研究中涉及到的相关概念进行了辨析和界定,为本研究的合理边界建立清晰的理论框架和理论基础。
通过利用国内外具有代表性的几种统计估算方法对全国和东北地区非正规就业规模进行估算,评估选择出非正规就业规模估算方法,据此计算出东北和全国的非正规就业规模,并对我国东、中、西三大地带进行横向比较。比较发现无论是位于非正规就业快速发展的我国东部地带的辽宁,还是位于非正规就业发展较缓慢的我国中部地带的吉林和黑龙江,非正规就业人数均达到总就业人口比重的1／3左右,非正规就业理应受到政策制订者的重视和支持。
通过弹性分析和回归分析法,验证经济增长与非正规就业两者之间的关系,并与正规就业进行比较,发现转型期内东北非正规就业年均增长率高于正规就业。如以第二、第三产业加总作为城镇国民生产总值并由此计算城镇非正规就业劳动生产率,发现尽管非正规就业自身有着许多负面因素,但仍有较高的劳动生产率,只要对其发展加以有力引导,会对经济增长起到不可忽视的促进作用。分析发现东北非正规就业集中在第三产业,尤其是批发和零售贸易、餐饮业、交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业、社会服务业等。这主要因为其他一些行业如金融业门槛要求高,民间资本进入受到限制,劳动力流动壁垒等原因所致。以发达国家日本为例进行国际比较,发现其和我国东北这方面情况相似。
分析非正规就业对东北经济增长贡献时,首先用格兰杰因果关系检验非正规就业和区域GDP增长关系,避免发生伪回归现象；然后运用国民账户法、劳动力投入法、国内生产总值收入法核算原理,根据劳动报酬占国内生产总值的比重,从收入角度估算非正规经济活动规模,这样有助于完善非正规就业对经济增长的量化方法体系。分析得出东北非正规就业经济贡献达到区域国内生产总值的30%左右,非正规就业对经济增长促进作用明显。
通过构建劳动需求与就业量决定模型,运用主成分分析法和最小二乘回归分析法找出影响和决定非正规就业的关键因素并进行宏观分析,详细阐析投资配置结构、产业结构、劳动力、工资水平、社会保障、劳动关系等影响因素。其次从微观角度进行实证分析,利用社会分层理论,将非正规就业主体内部分为三种不同层次类型,不同层次非正规就业发展途径不同,贡献和意义不同,这有助于针对不同层次类型采用不同的非正规就业优化对策。并且利用案例检验、实地问卷调查、访谈等来检验非正规就业影响因素及特征,从而为政府制定经济增长与就业并重的公共政策提供理论依据。
最后是如何有效促进非正规就业与经济增长协调发展、化解非正规就业效率与公平矛盾、实现市场经济条件下有序和谐的充分就业,为经济增长做出有益的贡献。提出优化非正规就业的积极政策体系,包括调整和优化区域产业结构；发展微型企业扶持创业；提高素质促进非正规就业质量；构建规范有序非正规就业的劳动力市场建设；加强非正规就业经济支持政策。
Defining informal employment and its role in regional economic and social development has always been a hot topic and focus of debate for both acdemic community and policy makers. However, more attracting attention than theoretic debate is that, in recent years, informal employment has played a vital role and become the most important urban employment channel and source of new jobs in developing, and even in developed countries. So far the attention in both academic and policy circles is still focused on quarrels over what is the nature of the phenominen, without effective and practical policy supports for imformal employment. In order to make clear what kind of internal relations existing between informal employment and regional economic growth, and to attract more society attention and to get policy supports for those informally employed, the paper choose informal employment in Heilongjiang,Jinlin and Liaoning Provinces in northeastern China (hereinafter refered to as "Northeastern China" throughout this paper) as research object, for the three northeastern provinces had once served as the nation's traditional old industrial bases, and had once been affected by restructuring effects and recently the global financial crisis. The paper conducts reserch on informal employment contributions to economic grouth as well as elments effecting informal employment, under the theoretic framework of informal employment and economic growth, and by comprehensively using informal employment scale estimation methods, questionaries, elasticity ananlysis, factor and regression analysis, national accounts methods, labour input methods, income GDP methods, labour demand and employment determinantion model, population prediction theory, etc. After that, the research evaluates current employment policy in the northeast, and makes needed recommendations, in attempt to provide theoretic and practical surpport for achieving both aims of regional economic rejuvenization and full employment.
After constructing informal employment and economic growth theoretical framework based on employment and economic growth theory and theories on informal employment, it defined relative concepts in the research under the theory of informal employment and economic growth, providing theoretic basisi for clear research boundaries.
Through use of several representative domestic and foreign statistical methods to estimate the size of informal employment, it assessed different statistical options to choose the optimal one. The scale of informal employment is calculated for Northeastern China and nationwide, and informal employment scale is compared within the three regions named Eastern, Middle and Western China. It shows that share of informal employment for both Liaoning in the Eastern region, where informal employment grows faster, as well as Jilin and Heilongjiang in the Middle China region, where informal employment grows relative slower, all reach as high as 1/3 in total employment, justifying that informal employment should receive dual attention.
Through elexitisity and regression studys and by checks on relationships between economic growth and informal employment, comparison with formal employment found that in the transition period average annual growth rate of informal employment is higher than formal employment. Using sum of secondary and tertiary industries GDP as total urban total and thus calculate the urban informal employment labor productivity,we found that despite number of negative factors informal employment inharitates,it still has relatively high labor productivity, and could play significant role in economic development, as long as their development are strongly guided. Analysis reveals that informal employment focused on the tertiary industry, and mainly concentrated in the wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, transportation, storage and post and telecommunications industry, social services, etc. This was mainly because a number of other industries such financial sector, which has high threshold and limited access to private capital, causing labor mobility barriers. Using Japan as a developed country example to make international comparisons, we found similar phenomenon as in Northeastern China.
In the analysis of informal employment contributions to economic growth in Northeastern China, Granger causality test is conducted to verify of the relationship between GDP growth and informal employment and in order to avoid the phenomenon of pseudo-regression; National accounts methods, labor input methods, and the gross domestic product income accounting principles were applied, use labor compensation share of GDP to estimate scale of informal economic activities from the income point of view.This will help improve quantitative methods for studying informal employment and economic growth. Analysis show that informal employment contribution to economic growth reach around 36%of total GDP in the region.Informal employment play an obvious role in promoting economic growth.
Through constructing labor demand and employment decision model, and then,by using principal component analysis and regression analysis to identify the major factor, the paper conduct macro-level analysis on key factors affecting and key to informal employment decisions.These include detailed interpretation of investment distribution structure factors, industrial structure adjustment factors, labor factors, factors of wage levels, social security factors, labor relations and other factors, respectively. Secondly, when did factual study from micro-analysis point of view, the paper mainly use social stratification theory, the main body of informal employment is divided into three different levels, different levels of informal employment develops in different paths, and with different contributions and significance, which will help to promote informal employment as different types of measures are used for different levels of informal employment levels,.This will provide a useful exploration in the future development of informal employment.Thirdly, use case testing and analysis, field survey and interviews carried out to verify the impact of informal employment factors and their characteristics,so as to provide theoretical basis for the government to develop public policies in which economic growth and employment are both important.
Finally, the paper deals with effective developments between informal employment and economic growth, that is how to resolve contradictions between efficiency and equity in informal employment, and how to reach hamoneous and orderly full employment goals which contributes to economic growth under a market economy condition. The paper puts forward informal employment optimization government policy matrix, which includes restructuring and upgrading regional industries, developing micro-enterprises and support entrepreneurship, improving labour skills to increase informal employment quality, building a standardized and orderly informal employment labor market, and strengthening economic support policies for informal employment.
引文
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