摘要
当前,我国城市交通正处于高速发展阶段。截止2010年,城市汽车数量已达5000万辆,并且每年还将以超过20%的速度增长。交通部预计至2020年,城市汽车数量将达到1亿---1.3亿辆。2010年,我国城市车辆尾气中CO和CO2的排放量分别占全国总污染量的85%和50%。机动车的迅速增长造成我国大、中城市严重的空气污染,城市面临着能源危机和环境恶化的双重压力。因此,城市交通体系的低碳建设研究成为当前研究热点。
本文在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础上,从低碳经济对城市发展的影响入手,对低碳经济下城市交通体系碳排放测评模型及优化方法展开了研究。以城市交通体系全寿命周期碳排放为研究对象,系统地分析了我国城市交通体系的碳排放结构,采用生命周期计算方法以及碳足迹消费模式进行了温室气体排放量的计算,分别构建了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程的碳排放计算模型,并进行了实证研究。
本文首先完成了城市交通体系结构环境影响量化模型研究。针对七种具有代表性的城市客运交通方式:常规公交、轨道交通、出租车、私家车、摩托车、自行车和步行,将其运输效率最大化作为优化目标,将影响低碳目标的各种因素作为约束条件,构建低碳目标下城市交通结构优化模型。同时,运用Mobile软件获取不同交通方式的碳排放因子;以及运用Commuter软件估算交通结构优化前后机动车碳排放量,分别建立了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程中的碳排放计算模型,定量分析城市交通管控措施对城市交通体系的运输效率和碳排放的影响效果。
在上述研究基础上,根据贵阳市城市交通现状以及贵阳市低碳城市发展目标,构建贵阳成市交通体系全寿命周期(交通体系基础设施施工过程、城市交通体系客运过程)碳排放测评模型,并设计贵阳市低碳交通体系的基本模式,提出贵阳市交通体系结构的“减碳路径”。
本文提出的城市交通体系碳排放测算的计算方法,以及通过实证分析得出的研究结论,对类似城市的交通体系的低碳建设具有重要的借鉴价值,并且对交通行业温室气体清单的编制提供了思路,具有重要的指导意义。
At present, China is at a stage of rapid development of urbanization, and themotorization level of the cities is also rapidly increasing. The number of cars in2010hasreached50million with an over20%annual growth rate, and will amount to100-130million in2020. As a result of such a rapid growth of motor vehicles in China, CO andCO2emission of the vehicles has reached respectively85%and50%of the wholepollution emission. Many cities face double pressures of energy crisis and environmentaldegradation, which has made the low-carbon economy a trend in current socialdevelopment.
The dissertation first studied the impact of low-carbon economy on urbandevelopment and did a research of the urban transportation system based on thelow-carbon economy. Then, taking life-cycle carbon emission of the urban transportationsystem as a study object, the dissertation analyzed the carbon emission structure inChina’s transportation system, and built a model to measure carbon emissions in theconstruction of urban infrastructure and the process of urban passenger transportation.
In the dissertation, the carbon emission calculation models for construction phaseand operation phase of urban transport system are established respectively. A case studywas conducted to test the models which could measure carbon emissions in the twophases. The research provided a quantitative model for the evaluation of low-carbonprojects of urban transport infrastructure.
This dissertation did a quantitative study on the structure of urban transport systemand built a low-carbon optimization model for urban transport system which aims atoptimizing the overall transport efficiency and takes various factors affecting thelow-carbon target as the constraint conditions. First, the dissertation obtained the carbonemission factors of different transportation methods by using Mobile software, and thenused COMMUTER software to compare the carbon emissions before and afteroptimizing the transport system. Finally, it analyzed the impact of urban transport controlmeasures on transport efficiency and carbon emissions of the urban transport system.
Based on the above-mentioned study, a life-cycle carbon emission measurement model for Guiyang City was built, aiming at meeting the goal of low-carbon citydevelopment and keeping abreast of the status of carbon emissions in transport system.This model can help to find a reasonable way to build a low-carbon transport system inGuiyang.
To sum up, this dissertation put forward a scientific and reasonable “carbonreduction path” for Guiyang City based on the low-carbon transport development strategyand the study of urban transport system. It provided a quantitative model for themeasurement of carbon emissions of urban transport system in Guiyang City, which isalso very useful for low-carbon development of urban transport system in other cities.
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