城市交通体系碳排放测评模型及优化方法
|
摘要
当前，我国城市交通正处于高速发展阶段。截止2010年，城市汽车数量已达5000万辆，并且每年还将以超过20%的速度增长。交通部预计至2020年，城市汽车数量将达到1亿---1.3亿辆。2010年，我国城市车辆尾气中CO和CO2的排放量分别占全国总污染量的85%和50%。机动车的迅速增长造成我国大、中城市严重的空气污染，城市面临着能源危机和环境恶化的双重压力。因此，城市交通体系的低碳建设研究成为当前研究热点。
本文在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础上，从低碳经济对城市发展的影响入手，对低碳经济下城市交通体系碳排放测评模型及优化方法展开了研究。以城市交通体系全寿命周期碳排放为研究对象，系统地分析了我国城市交通体系的碳排放结构，采用生命周期计算方法以及碳足迹消费模式进行了温室气体排放量的计算，分别构建了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程的碳排放计算模型，并进行了实证研究。
本文首先完成了城市交通体系结构环境影响量化模型研究。针对七种具有代表性的城市客运交通方式：常规公交、轨道交通、出租车、私家车、摩托车、自行车和步行，将其运输效率最大化作为优化目标，将影响低碳目标的各种因素作为约束条件，构建低碳目标下城市交通结构优化模型。同时，运用Mobile软件获取不同交通方式的碳排放因子；以及运用Commuter软件估算交通结构优化前后机动车碳排放量，分别建立了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程中的碳排放计算模型，定量分析城市交通管控措施对城市交通体系的运输效率和碳排放的影响效果。
在上述研究基础上，根据贵阳市城市交通现状以及贵阳市低碳城市发展目标，构建贵阳成市交通体系全寿命周期（交通体系基础设施施工过程、城市交通体系客运过程）碳排放测评模型，并设计贵阳市低碳交通体系的基本模式，提出贵阳市交通体系结构的“减碳路径”。
本文提出的城市交通体系碳排放测算的计算方法，以及通过实证分析得出的研究结论，对类似城市的交通体系的低碳建设具有重要的借鉴价值，并且对交通行业温室气体清单的编制提供了思路，具有重要的指导意义。
At present, China is at a stage of rapid development of urbanization, and themotorization level of the cities is also rapidly increasing. The number of cars in2010hasreached50million with an over20%annual growth rate, and will amount to100-130million in2020. As a result of such a rapid growth of motor vehicles in China, CO andCO2emission of the vehicles has reached respectively85%and50%of the wholepollution emission. Many cities face double pressures of energy crisis and environmentaldegradation, which has made the low-carbon economy a trend in current socialdevelopment.
The dissertation first studied the impact of low-carbon economy on urbandevelopment and did a research of the urban transportation system based on thelow-carbon economy. Then, taking life-cycle carbon emission of the urban transportationsystem as a study object, the dissertation analyzed the carbon emission structure inChina’s transportation system, and built a model to measure carbon emissions in theconstruction of urban infrastructure and the process of urban passenger transportation.
In the dissertation, the carbon emission calculation models for construction phaseand operation phase of urban transport system are established respectively. A case studywas conducted to test the models which could measure carbon emissions in the twophases. The research provided a quantitative model for the evaluation of low-carbonprojects of urban transport infrastructure.
This dissertation did a quantitative study on the structure of urban transport systemand built a low-carbon optimization model for urban transport system which aims atoptimizing the overall transport efficiency and takes various factors affecting thelow-carbon target as the constraint conditions. First, the dissertation obtained the carbonemission factors of different transportation methods by using Mobile software, and thenused COMMUTER software to compare the carbon emissions before and afteroptimizing the transport system. Finally, it analyzed the impact of urban transport controlmeasures on transport efficiency and carbon emissions of the urban transport system.
Based on the above-mentioned study, a life-cycle carbon emission measurement model for Guiyang City was built, aiming at meeting the goal of low-carbon citydevelopment and keeping abreast of the status of carbon emissions in transport system.This model can help to find a reasonable way to build a low-carbon transport system inGuiyang.
To sum up, this dissertation put forward a scientific and reasonable “carbonreduction path” for Guiyang City based on the low-carbon transport development strategyand the study of urban transport system. It provided a quantitative model for themeasurement of carbon emissions of urban transport system in Guiyang City, which isalso very useful for low-carbon development of urban transport system in other cities.
本文在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础上，从低碳经济对城市发展的影响入手，对低碳经济下城市交通体系碳排放测评模型及优化方法展开了研究。以城市交通体系全寿命周期碳排放为研究对象，系统地分析了我国城市交通体系的碳排放结构，采用生命周期计算方法以及碳足迹消费模式进行了温室气体排放量的计算，分别构建了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程的碳排放计算模型，并进行了实证研究。
本文首先完成了城市交通体系结构环境影响量化模型研究。针对七种具有代表性的城市客运交通方式：常规公交、轨道交通、出租车、私家车、摩托车、自行车和步行，将其运输效率最大化作为优化目标，将影响低碳目标的各种因素作为约束条件，构建低碳目标下城市交通结构优化模型。同时，运用Mobile软件获取不同交通方式的碳排放因子；以及运用Commuter软件估算交通结构优化前后机动车碳排放量，分别建立了城市交通体系基础设施施工过程和城市交通体系客运过程中的碳排放计算模型，定量分析城市交通管控措施对城市交通体系的运输效率和碳排放的影响效果。
在上述研究基础上，根据贵阳市城市交通现状以及贵阳市低碳城市发展目标，构建贵阳成市交通体系全寿命周期（交通体系基础设施施工过程、城市交通体系客运过程）碳排放测评模型，并设计贵阳市低碳交通体系的基本模式，提出贵阳市交通体系结构的“减碳路径”。
本文提出的城市交通体系碳排放测算的计算方法，以及通过实证分析得出的研究结论，对类似城市的交通体系的低碳建设具有重要的借鉴价值，并且对交通行业温室气体清单的编制提供了思路，具有重要的指导意义。
At present, China is at a stage of rapid development of urbanization, and themotorization level of the cities is also rapidly increasing. The number of cars in2010hasreached50million with an over20%annual growth rate, and will amount to100-130million in2020. As a result of such a rapid growth of motor vehicles in China, CO andCO2emission of the vehicles has reached respectively85%and50%of the wholepollution emission. Many cities face double pressures of energy crisis and environmentaldegradation, which has made the low-carbon economy a trend in current socialdevelopment.
The dissertation first studied the impact of low-carbon economy on urbandevelopment and did a research of the urban transportation system based on thelow-carbon economy. Then, taking life-cycle carbon emission of the urban transportationsystem as a study object, the dissertation analyzed the carbon emission structure inChina’s transportation system, and built a model to measure carbon emissions in theconstruction of urban infrastructure and the process of urban passenger transportation.
In the dissertation, the carbon emission calculation models for construction phaseand operation phase of urban transport system are established respectively. A case studywas conducted to test the models which could measure carbon emissions in the twophases. The research provided a quantitative model for the evaluation of low-carbonprojects of urban transport infrastructure.
This dissertation did a quantitative study on the structure of urban transport systemand built a low-carbon optimization model for urban transport system which aims atoptimizing the overall transport efficiency and takes various factors affecting thelow-carbon target as the constraint conditions. First, the dissertation obtained the carbonemission factors of different transportation methods by using Mobile software, and thenused COMMUTER software to compare the carbon emissions before and afteroptimizing the transport system. Finally, it analyzed the impact of urban transport controlmeasures on transport efficiency and carbon emissions of the urban transport system.
Based on the above-mentioned study, a life-cycle carbon emission measurement model for Guiyang City was built, aiming at meeting the goal of low-carbon citydevelopment and keeping abreast of the status of carbon emissions in transport system.This model can help to find a reasonable way to build a low-carbon transport system inGuiyang.
To sum up, this dissertation put forward a scientific and reasonable “carbonreduction path” for Guiyang City based on the low-carbon transport development strategyand the study of urban transport system. It provided a quantitative model for themeasurement of carbon emissions of urban transport system in Guiyang City, which isalso very useful for low-carbon development of urban transport system in other cities.
引文
[1]刘洪营.城市客运交通结构评价、设计与优化研究.长安大学,2003.
[2]王媛媛，陆化普.基于可持续发展的土地利用与交通结构组合模型.清华大学学报(自然科学版).2004(9):1240-1243.
[3]徐永能.大城市公共客运交通系统结构演化机理与优化方法研究.东南大学,2006.
[4] M Molina, J Hernández, J Cuena. A structure of problem-solving methods forreal-time decision support in traffic control.1998.
[5] Wright C. The conceptual structure of traffic jams.1998:23-35.
[6] Faiz A. Sustainable Transport for the Developing World: The Social andEnvironmental Nexus.2000:126,451-454.
[7] Sinha K C. Sustainability and Urban Public Transportation.2003:331-341.
[8] Yogesh Dheenadayalu B W A C. Transp.2004:130,568-575.
[9] Schadschneider A. Optimization of highway networks and traffic.2005:346,165-173.
[10] Jean-Charles Créput, Abderrafiaa Koukam. Interactive Meshing for the Design andOptimization of Bus Transportation Networks.2007:133,529-538.
[11] I. D. Greenwood, R. C. Dunn, R. R. Raine. Estimating the Effects of TrafficCongestion on Fuel Consumption and Vehicle Emissions Based on AccelerationNoise.2007:133,96-104.
[12] Poudenx P. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption andgreenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation.2008:42,901-909.
[13] A.K. Nandi, K. Bhattacharya, S.S. Manna. An optimal network for passenger traffic.2009:388,3651-3656.
[14]顾尚华.浅议城市客运交通的合理结构.城市道桥与防洪.1993(2):24-29.
[15]许庆健.试论城市客运交通的合理结构.综合运输.1999(6):26-28.
[16]吕慎，田锋，李旭宏.我国大城市客运交通结构发展模式研究——应用层次分析—主成分分析组合评判法.土木工程学报.2003(1):30-35.
[17]陆化普，王建伟，张鹏.基于能源消耗的城市交通结构优化.清华大学学报(自然科学版).2004(3):383-386.
[18]沈未，陆化普.基于可持续发展的城市交通结构优化模型与应用.中南公路工程.2005(1):150-153.
[19]林震，杨浩.城市交通结构的优化模型分析.土木工程学报.2005(5):100-104.
[20]王召强，李彬.道路网容量约束下的交通结构优化方法研究.交通与运输(学术版).2006(2):19-22.
[21]谢辉.符合生态城市的城市客运交通结构研究.长沙理工大学,2007.
[22]李娜.城市客运交通结构合理性评价研究.吉林大学,2008.
[23]陈美如.城市客运交通系统结构优化的研究和实例分析.东北林业大学,2009.
[24]叶祖盼，王莉萍.从经济学的角度浅谈城市交通结构的优化.山西建筑.2009(5):43-45.
[25]徐建闽.我国低碳交通分析及推进措施.城市观察.2010(4):13-20.
[26] FU Tian-liang. Construction and Application of Quenching Critical Cooling RateModel. Journal of Iron and Steel and Steel Research.2010.17(3):40-45
[27] Gramge R A. Kiefer S M. Transformation of Austenite on Continuous Cooling and ItsRelation to Transformation at Constant Temperature. Trans of ASM1941.29:85.
[28] LU Xing. The Foundation of Heat Treatment Engineering. Beijing, MechanicalIndustrial Press.2007
[29] Cui Zhong-xi, Metallography and Heat Treatment. Beijing, Mechanical IndustrialPress.2006
[30] Sakamoto K. A paradigm shift towards sustainable low-carbon transport: financingthe vision ASAP. New York: Institute for Transportation&Development Policy,2010.
[31] Bongardt D. Beyond the Fossil City: Towards low Carbon Transport and GreenGrowth. Eschborn: Deutsche Gesell schaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ)GmbH,2010.
[32] Jr K. Transport Energy Use and Greenhouse Gases in Urban Passenger TransportSystems: A Study of84Global Cities. Murdoch: Associate Professor in SustainableSettlementsInstitute for Sustainability and Technology Policy Murdoch University,2003.
[33] Georges Darido, Mariana Torres-Montoya, Shomik Mehndiratta. Urban Transportand CO2Emissions: Some Evidence from Chinese Cities.http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/07/21/000334955_20100721033904/Rendered/PDF/557730WP0P11791June020091EN105jan10.pdf,2009.
[34] Wenkui Zhang. In situ construction of carbon nano-interconnects between theLiFePO4grains using ultra low-cost asphalt. Electrochimica Acta2010:2592–2596.
[35] Philip Davies, Mohamed Osmani. Low carbon housing refurbishment challenges andincentives: Architects’ perspectives.Building and Environment2011:1691-1698.
[36] Gaterell M, McEvoy M. The impact of climate change uncertainties ontheperformance of energy efficiency measures applied to dwellings. EnergyandBuildings,2005(9):982-995.
[37] Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). The UK low carbon transitionplan, national strategy for climate change and energy. London: The Stationary Office,2009.
[38] Poudenx P. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption andgreenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation. TransportationResearch Part A: Policy and Practice.2008(6):901-909.
[39] Ross Morrow W, Gallagher K S, Collantes G, et al. Analysis of policies to reduce oilconsumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector. EnergyPolicySecurity, Prosperity and Community-Towards a Common European EnergyPolicy? Special Section with Regular Papers.2010,38(3):1305-1320.
[40] Poudenx P, Merida W. Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions from urbanpassenger transportation versus availability of renewable energy: The example of theCanadian Lower Fraser Valley. Energy.2007,32(1):1-9.
[41] Bandivadekar A, Cheah L, Evans C, et al. Reducing the fuel use and greenhouse gasemissions of the US vehicle fleet. Energy Policy.2008,36(7):2754-2760.
[42] Mccollum D, Yang C. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gasemissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications. Energy Policy.2009,37(12):5580-5596.
[43] Greaves S. A Strategic-Level Modelling Tool for Evaluating Air Quality andGreenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies for Urban Road Freight in Sydney.2009.
[44] Paper U E W. Our energy future-creating a low carbon economy.2003.
[45] D. Johnston, R. Lowe, M. Bell. An Exploration of the Technical Feasibility ofAchieving CO2Emission Reductions in Excess of60%Within the UK HousingStock by the Year2050.2005:1643-1659.
[46] D.J. Treffersa, A.P.C. Faija, J. Spakmanb, A. Seebregts. Exploring the Possibilitiesfor Setting up Sustainable Energy Systems for the Long Term: Two Visions for theDutch Energy System in2050. Energy Policy.2010(33):1723-1743.
[47] Reina Kawasea, Yuzuru Matsuokaa, Junichi Fujinob. Decomposition Analysis ofCO2Emission in Long-Term Climate Stabilization Scenarios. Energy Policy.2006(34):2113-2122.
[48] Koji Shimada, Yoshitaka Tanakab, Kei Gomic, Yuzuru Matsuokac. Developing aLong-term Local Society Design Methodology Towards a Low-carbon Economy: AnApplication to Shiga Prefecture in Japan. Energy Policy.2007(35):4688-4703.
[49]罗晖,游雪晴.“低碳经济”离我们还有多远？.科技日报.
[50]庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析.国际技术经济研究.2005,8(3):32-34.
[51]Andrew H. Buchanana, S. Bry Levine. Wood-based building materials andatmospheric carbon emissions. Environmental Science&Policy.1999(2)427-437
[52] Ford-Robertson, J.B. Carbon balance calculations for the forest industries. NewZealand Forestry,1997.5.
[53] Hall, D.O., House, J.I., Trees and biomass energy: carbon storage and/or fossil fuelsubstitution. Biomass and Bioenergy,1994.6(12),11-30.
[54] Honey, B.G., Buchanan, A.H.,1992. Environmental impacts of then New Zealandbuilding industry. Civil Engineering Research Report92-2. University of Canterbury,New Zealand.
[55] Houghton, J.Global Warming: The Complete Brierng. Lion Publishing plc, Oxford,UK,1994.
[56] IFIAS,1975. Workshop on energy analysis and economics. Workshop Report9,International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study, Stockholm.
[57] Stern Nicholas. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,2006.
[58]陈迎，潘家华，庄贵阳.斯特恩报告及其对后京都谈判的可能影响.气候变化研究进展.2007(2):114-119.
[59]潘泽勇.更有效的低碳和安全的英国能源政策.2007(9):56-59.
[60]钟东阶，蒋国璋.对我国城市实施绿色交通体系对策的探讨.上海汽车.2004(5):9-11.
[61]江黎明，吴瑞麟.绿色交通思想在交通工具及道路状况方面的思考.中国市政工程.2003(2):10-12.
[62]王刚，沈建武.城市“绿色”交通规划.规划师.2004(7):63-65.
[63]陈洁行，沈悦林，龚勤，等.杭州的低碳城市交通实践与发展对策.现代城市.2010(1):12-16.
[64]尚春静，张智慧.建筑生命周期碳排放核算.工程管理学报.2010(1):7-12.
[65]申琪玉，张艳艳.建筑材料环境负荷实例研究.建筑技术开发.2009(1):17-19.
[66]郑萍，程娜，倪伟桥.基于低碳交通理念的城市规划策略研究.华中建筑.2010(8):131-133.
[67]冯立光，张伟，张好智.关于中国城市低碳交通系统建设的思考.公路与汽运.2011(1):36-40.
[68]樊建林，孙章.城市交通可持续发展评价指标体系的研究.上海铁道大学学报(理工辑).1999(8):57-63.
[69]陈贻安.中国交通可持续发展评价指标与计算方法构想.北京交通管理干部学院学报.1999(1):1-7.
[70]蒋育红，何小洲，过秀成.城市绿色交通规划评价指标体系.合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版).2008(9):399-402.
[71] Leif Gustavsson, Anna Joelsson, Roger Sathre. Life cycle primary energy use andcarbon emission of an eight-storey wood-framed apartment building. Energy andBuildings,2010,42(2):230-242.
[72] Cole RJ. Energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the construction ofalternative structural systems. Building and Environment,1999,34(3):335-348.
[73] Gerilla GP，Teknomo K，Hokao K. An environmental assessment of wood and steelreinforced concrete housing construction. Building and Environment,2007,42(7):2778-2784
[74] Bribian，Uson, Scarpellini. Life cycle assessment in buildings: State-of-the-art andsimplified LCA methodology as a complement for building certification. Building andEnvironment,2009,44(12):2510-2520
[75] Joshua Kneifel. Life-cycle carbon and cost analysis of energy efficiency measures innew commercial buildings, Energy and Buildings, Volume42, Issue3,2010(3):333-340.
[76]沈峥嵘，邵春福.交通需求预测及其应用研究.道路交通与安全.2006(6):1-7.
[77]葛亮，信红喜，马俊.公路交通可持续发展评价指标体系及评价方法研究.公路.2006(6):20-24.
[78]姚雪珍.城市公共交通规划评价指标体系初探.西北建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版).1999(1):44-48.
[79]刘铮.城市轨道交通项目可持续性影响因素评价.建筑经济.2006(10):17-20.
[80]彭涌涛，单炜.城市交通可持续发展研究与评价指标.煤炭技术.2005(3):2-5.
[81]吴军伟.道路工程碳排放量计算与分析模型的发展与应用.城市道桥与防洪.2011(7):248-250.
[82]龙江英,李焱,马龙.城市轨道交通运营期碳排放算量研究.贵阳学院学报(自然科学版).2011.6(2):1-11
[2]王媛媛，陆化普.基于可持续发展的土地利用与交通结构组合模型.清华大学学报(自然科学版).2004(9):1240-1243.
[3]徐永能.大城市公共客运交通系统结构演化机理与优化方法研究.东南大学,2006.
[4] M Molina, J Hernández, J Cuena. A structure of problem-solving methods forreal-time decision support in traffic control.1998.
[5] Wright C. The conceptual structure of traffic jams.1998:23-35.
[6] Faiz A. Sustainable Transport for the Developing World: The Social andEnvironmental Nexus.2000:126,451-454.
[7] Sinha K C. Sustainability and Urban Public Transportation.2003:331-341.
[8] Yogesh Dheenadayalu B W A C. Transp.2004:130,568-575.
[9] Schadschneider A. Optimization of highway networks and traffic.2005:346,165-173.
[10] Jean-Charles Créput, Abderrafiaa Koukam. Interactive Meshing for the Design andOptimization of Bus Transportation Networks.2007:133,529-538.
[11] I. D. Greenwood, R. C. Dunn, R. R. Raine. Estimating the Effects of TrafficCongestion on Fuel Consumption and Vehicle Emissions Based on AccelerationNoise.2007:133,96-104.
[12] Poudenx P. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption andgreenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation.2008:42,901-909.
[13] A.K. Nandi, K. Bhattacharya, S.S. Manna. An optimal network for passenger traffic.2009:388,3651-3656.
[14]顾尚华.浅议城市客运交通的合理结构.城市道桥与防洪.1993(2):24-29.
[15]许庆健.试论城市客运交通的合理结构.综合运输.1999(6):26-28.
[16]吕慎，田锋，李旭宏.我国大城市客运交通结构发展模式研究——应用层次分析—主成分分析组合评判法.土木工程学报.2003(1):30-35.
[17]陆化普，王建伟，张鹏.基于能源消耗的城市交通结构优化.清华大学学报(自然科学版).2004(3):383-386.
[18]沈未，陆化普.基于可持续发展的城市交通结构优化模型与应用.中南公路工程.2005(1):150-153.
[19]林震，杨浩.城市交通结构的优化模型分析.土木工程学报.2005(5):100-104.
[20]王召强，李彬.道路网容量约束下的交通结构优化方法研究.交通与运输(学术版).2006(2):19-22.
[21]谢辉.符合生态城市的城市客运交通结构研究.长沙理工大学,2007.
[22]李娜.城市客运交通结构合理性评价研究.吉林大学,2008.
[23]陈美如.城市客运交通系统结构优化的研究和实例分析.东北林业大学,2009.
[24]叶祖盼，王莉萍.从经济学的角度浅谈城市交通结构的优化.山西建筑.2009(5):43-45.
[25]徐建闽.我国低碳交通分析及推进措施.城市观察.2010(4):13-20.
[26] FU Tian-liang. Construction and Application of Quenching Critical Cooling RateModel. Journal of Iron and Steel and Steel Research.2010.17(3):40-45
[27] Gramge R A. Kiefer S M. Transformation of Austenite on Continuous Cooling and ItsRelation to Transformation at Constant Temperature. Trans of ASM1941.29:85.
[28] LU Xing. The Foundation of Heat Treatment Engineering. Beijing, MechanicalIndustrial Press.2007
[29] Cui Zhong-xi, Metallography and Heat Treatment. Beijing, Mechanical IndustrialPress.2006
[30] Sakamoto K. A paradigm shift towards sustainable low-carbon transport: financingthe vision ASAP. New York: Institute for Transportation&Development Policy,2010.
[31] Bongardt D. Beyond the Fossil City: Towards low Carbon Transport and GreenGrowth. Eschborn: Deutsche Gesell schaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ)GmbH,2010.
[32] Jr K. Transport Energy Use and Greenhouse Gases in Urban Passenger TransportSystems: A Study of84Global Cities. Murdoch: Associate Professor in SustainableSettlementsInstitute for Sustainability and Technology Policy Murdoch University,2003.
[33] Georges Darido, Mariana Torres-Montoya, Shomik Mehndiratta. Urban Transportand CO2Emissions: Some Evidence from Chinese Cities.http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/07/21/000334955_20100721033904/Rendered/PDF/557730WP0P11791June020091EN105jan10.pdf,2009.
[34] Wenkui Zhang. In situ construction of carbon nano-interconnects between theLiFePO4grains using ultra low-cost asphalt. Electrochimica Acta2010:2592–2596.
[35] Philip Davies, Mohamed Osmani. Low carbon housing refurbishment challenges andincentives: Architects’ perspectives.Building and Environment2011:1691-1698.
[36] Gaterell M, McEvoy M. The impact of climate change uncertainties ontheperformance of energy efficiency measures applied to dwellings. EnergyandBuildings,2005(9):982-995.
[37] Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). The UK low carbon transitionplan, national strategy for climate change and energy. London: The Stationary Office,2009.
[38] Poudenx P. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption andgreenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation. TransportationResearch Part A: Policy and Practice.2008(6):901-909.
[39] Ross Morrow W, Gallagher K S, Collantes G, et al. Analysis of policies to reduce oilconsumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector. EnergyPolicySecurity, Prosperity and Community-Towards a Common European EnergyPolicy? Special Section with Regular Papers.2010,38(3):1305-1320.
[40] Poudenx P, Merida W. Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions from urbanpassenger transportation versus availability of renewable energy: The example of theCanadian Lower Fraser Valley. Energy.2007,32(1):1-9.
[41] Bandivadekar A, Cheah L, Evans C, et al. Reducing the fuel use and greenhouse gasemissions of the US vehicle fleet. Energy Policy.2008,36(7):2754-2760.
[42] Mccollum D, Yang C. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gasemissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications. Energy Policy.2009,37(12):5580-5596.
[43] Greaves S. A Strategic-Level Modelling Tool for Evaluating Air Quality andGreenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies for Urban Road Freight in Sydney.2009.
[44] Paper U E W. Our energy future-creating a low carbon economy.2003.
[45] D. Johnston, R. Lowe, M. Bell. An Exploration of the Technical Feasibility ofAchieving CO2Emission Reductions in Excess of60%Within the UK HousingStock by the Year2050.2005:1643-1659.
[46] D.J. Treffersa, A.P.C. Faija, J. Spakmanb, A. Seebregts. Exploring the Possibilitiesfor Setting up Sustainable Energy Systems for the Long Term: Two Visions for theDutch Energy System in2050. Energy Policy.2010(33):1723-1743.
[47] Reina Kawasea, Yuzuru Matsuokaa, Junichi Fujinob. Decomposition Analysis ofCO2Emission in Long-Term Climate Stabilization Scenarios. Energy Policy.2006(34):2113-2122.
[48] Koji Shimada, Yoshitaka Tanakab, Kei Gomic, Yuzuru Matsuokac. Developing aLong-term Local Society Design Methodology Towards a Low-carbon Economy: AnApplication to Shiga Prefecture in Japan. Energy Policy.2007(35):4688-4703.
[49]罗晖,游雪晴.“低碳经济”离我们还有多远？.科技日报.
[50]庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析.国际技术经济研究.2005,8(3):32-34.
[51]Andrew H. Buchanana, S. Bry Levine. Wood-based building materials andatmospheric carbon emissions. Environmental Science&Policy.1999(2)427-437
[52] Ford-Robertson, J.B. Carbon balance calculations for the forest industries. NewZealand Forestry,1997.5.
[53] Hall, D.O., House, J.I., Trees and biomass energy: carbon storage and/or fossil fuelsubstitution. Biomass and Bioenergy,1994.6(12),11-30.
[54] Honey, B.G., Buchanan, A.H.,1992. Environmental impacts of then New Zealandbuilding industry. Civil Engineering Research Report92-2. University of Canterbury,New Zealand.
[55] Houghton, J.Global Warming: The Complete Brierng. Lion Publishing plc, Oxford,UK,1994.
[56] IFIAS,1975. Workshop on energy analysis and economics. Workshop Report9,International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study, Stockholm.
[57] Stern Nicholas. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,2006.
[58]陈迎，潘家华，庄贵阳.斯特恩报告及其对后京都谈判的可能影响.气候变化研究进展.2007(2):114-119.
[59]潘泽勇.更有效的低碳和安全的英国能源政策.2007(9):56-59.
[60]钟东阶，蒋国璋.对我国城市实施绿色交通体系对策的探讨.上海汽车.2004(5):9-11.
[61]江黎明，吴瑞麟.绿色交通思想在交通工具及道路状况方面的思考.中国市政工程.2003(2):10-12.
[62]王刚，沈建武.城市“绿色”交通规划.规划师.2004(7):63-65.
[63]陈洁行，沈悦林，龚勤，等.杭州的低碳城市交通实践与发展对策.现代城市.2010(1):12-16.
[64]尚春静，张智慧.建筑生命周期碳排放核算.工程管理学报.2010(1):7-12.
[65]申琪玉，张艳艳.建筑材料环境负荷实例研究.建筑技术开发.2009(1):17-19.
[66]郑萍，程娜，倪伟桥.基于低碳交通理念的城市规划策略研究.华中建筑.2010(8):131-133.
[67]冯立光，张伟，张好智.关于中国城市低碳交通系统建设的思考.公路与汽运.2011(1):36-40.
[68]樊建林，孙章.城市交通可持续发展评价指标体系的研究.上海铁道大学学报(理工辑).1999(8):57-63.
[69]陈贻安.中国交通可持续发展评价指标与计算方法构想.北京交通管理干部学院学报.1999(1):1-7.
[70]蒋育红，何小洲，过秀成.城市绿色交通规划评价指标体系.合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版).2008(9):399-402.
[71] Leif Gustavsson, Anna Joelsson, Roger Sathre. Life cycle primary energy use andcarbon emission of an eight-storey wood-framed apartment building. Energy andBuildings,2010,42(2):230-242.
[72] Cole RJ. Energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the construction ofalternative structural systems. Building and Environment,1999,34(3):335-348.
[73] Gerilla GP，Teknomo K，Hokao K. An environmental assessment of wood and steelreinforced concrete housing construction. Building and Environment,2007,42(7):2778-2784
[74] Bribian，Uson, Scarpellini. Life cycle assessment in buildings: State-of-the-art andsimplified LCA methodology as a complement for building certification. Building andEnvironment,2009,44(12):2510-2520
[75] Joshua Kneifel. Life-cycle carbon and cost analysis of energy efficiency measures innew commercial buildings, Energy and Buildings, Volume42, Issue3,2010(3):333-340.
[76]沈峥嵘，邵春福.交通需求预测及其应用研究.道路交通与安全.2006(6):1-7.
[77]葛亮，信红喜，马俊.公路交通可持续发展评价指标体系及评价方法研究.公路.2006(6):20-24.
[78]姚雪珍.城市公共交通规划评价指标体系初探.西北建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版).1999(1):44-48.
[79]刘铮.城市轨道交通项目可持续性影响因素评价.建筑经济.2006(10):17-20.
[80]彭涌涛，单炜.城市交通可持续发展研究与评价指标.煤炭技术.2005(3):2-5.
[81]吴军伟.道路工程碳排放量计算与分析模型的发展与应用.城市道桥与防洪.2011(7):248-250.
[82]龙江英,李焱,马龙.城市轨道交通运营期碳排放算量研究.贵阳学院学报(自然科学版).2011.6(2):1-11