选择性迁移、人力资本深化与中国农业发展
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摘要
中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,且是一个农业大国,农业在国民经济发展中的作用举足轻重。目前,我国农业进入了一个新的发展阶段,新的阶段就会具有新的特点,我们应该以中国客观现实为基础,站在一个新的角度来考虑我国农业所面临的新的问题,才能真正为我国农业发展出谋划策。
劳动力过剩型二元经济结构是我国经济体系的主要特征,而劳动力过剩型二元经济结构转换的核心是农业剩余劳动力的转移。刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型是研究发展中国家农业剩余劳动力转移时可供选择的模型,但是近年来,由于在工业化、城市化过程中,逐渐形成了对教育的递增回报模式,劳动力非农转移随即呈现出选择性的特点,受教育程度相对较高的劳动力优先实现非农转移,这种现象的出现必然要求我们在借鉴刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型的同时要根据现实国情对其进行补充与完善。在将人力资本积累率作为外生变量的现有文献中,劳动力转移必然导致农村人力资本的流失,农村地区人力资本的浅化是较高文化水平劳动力非农迁移的自然结论。将人力资本因素引入到刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型中后,以上现象的出现将导致刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型中短缺点和商业化点重合的转折点推后到来。此时,二元经济的成功发展,在刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型给出的条件之外,同时要求农业从业者的人均人力资本投资增长率大于由于劳动力转移所产生的农业劳均人力资本存量的损失率。这是依据中国国情对刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型做出的补充。
事实上,选择性迁移在很大程度上同时决定着农村居民家庭的人力资本投资决策。如果将人力资本积累率处理为迁移过程的内生变量而非外生因素,那么,选择性迁移会在跨部门套利动机的驱使下提高对人力资本投资的需求,同时也有利于提高向人的质量投资的能力,因而可能出现农村地区人力资本深化的结果。
本文对刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型进行了修正,将人力资本因素引入到劳动力的转移过程中。以舒尔茨的改造传统农业理论和包含人力资本因素的新经济增长理论为理论基础,分析了人力资本内生的农业发展机制及其发挥作用的途径,并借鉴Kanbur和Rapoport提供的分析方法,构造了选择性迁移条件下的农村人力资本积累模型,由此建立起劳动力迁移、人力资本水平与中国农业发展之间的相关性,对改革开放以来我国农村劳动力的选择性迁移、人力资本深化与中国农业发展趋势的时间序列的分析,在一定程度上支持了本文的结论,最终获得在选择性迁移条件下,由劳动力非农转移带来的农业和农村地区人力资本水平的提高是推进我国农业发展的根本动力的结论。
笔者提出的相关政策建议如下:第一,建立公共信息网络,为农民流动迁移提供有效的信息引导,改革户籍制度和土地制度,消除劳动力迁移的制度障碍;第二,通过教育改革、刺激人力资本的个人投资、加大政府对农村地区教育的财政投入以及吸引人才政策的实施,提高农村人力资本水平;第三,在促进劳动力迁移和提高劳动力人力资本水平的基础上,促进农业高新技术的推广和应用、加快农村科技发展利成果转化、发展以劳动密集型产品生产为主的“三高”农业、推进农业产业化经营,以保证我国由传统农业向现代农业转型的顺利实现。
China is the biggest developing country in the world. And it is a large agricultural nation in which agriculture play an important role. At present, our agriculture has entered a new stage of development. The new stage have new features. We should consider the new problem of china's agriculture from a new point of view. Can we truly make advice for China's agricultural development.
The labor-surplus dual economic structure is the main characteristic of our country economic system. The surplus labor transfer from agricultural department to industry department is the core progress of the dual economic structure transforms. The Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model can be chosed to analyze the prolem of developing country's rural surplus labor transfer. But in recent years, due to the return on education is gradually increasing in the process of industrialization and urbanization, the non-agricultural transfer of labor force show the characteristics of selectivity, the labor force who has the higher level of education is prior to finish the non-agricultural transfer. This kind of phenomenon requires us to learn from the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, at the same time, supply and improve it according to China's actual situation. In the existing literature in which the accumulation rate of human capital be regarded as exogenous variable, labor force transfer will inevitably lead to the loss of human capital. The decreasing of human capital in rural areas is caused by the non-agricultural transfer of labor force who has the higher level of education. After the human capital introduced into the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, the above phenomenon will lead to the postponed coming of turning point of the shortage point and the commercial point coincidence. Moreover, besides those conditons introduced by the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, a successful development of dual economy also depends on conditon that the ratio of net growth of the agricultural worker's average labor capital be more than zero. This is complement for the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model according to China's actual situation.
In deed, selecive transfer to a large extent determines the investmment decisions of the rural households. If the accumulation rate of human capital be regarded as endogenous variables rather than exogenous factor, then selecive transfer improve the demand for the investment of human capital drived by the motive of arbitrage in the cross-sectoral, but also it is in favor of raising the ability of investment for people's quality, which may accur the result of human capital deepening in rural areas.
In this paper, we amend the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model of agricultural development, and induced human capital into the process of labor force transfer. Based on Schulz's transfermation of tradition agricultural theory and the new economic growth theory included human capital, this paper analyzes the agricultural development mechanism of huamn capital innovation and the way it play the roal. And learn from the analyzing method made by Kanbu and Rapoport, we make the model of the accumulation of human capital in rural under selective transfer, establishing the relationship of labor force trabsfer、human capital level and China's agricultural development. The analyzing for the times series of China's selective transfer of rural labor force、the deepening of human capital and agricultural development from reform and open policy carried out to a large extend support the conclusion in this paper. Finally, a conclusion is drawn that, under the condition of selective transfer, the human capital in agricultural and rural areas that brought by labor force non-agricultural transfer will be foundamental power to drive agricultural development.
Author proposes related policy suggestion as follows: firstly, through setting up a public information network to provide the effective leading of information for farmer's transfer, through reforming the residence registration system and land system to eliminate the barriers of labor force tranfer; Secondly, through reforming education system、simulating personal investment of human capital、increasing government financial investment for education in rural areas to raise the level of human capital; Thirdly, based on promoting labor force transfer and raising the level of human capital, promote agricultural high-tech popularization and application, speed up development and transformation of rural achievements in science and technology, develop the "three high" agriculture which main products are labor-intensive products, promote industrialization of agriculture to ensure that China's transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture can be achieved smoothly.
劳动力过剩型二元经济结构是我国经济体系的主要特征,而劳动力过剩型二元经济结构转换的核心是农业剩余劳动力的转移。刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型是研究发展中国家农业剩余劳动力转移时可供选择的模型,但是近年来,由于在工业化、城市化过程中,逐渐形成了对教育的递增回报模式,劳动力非农转移随即呈现出选择性的特点,受教育程度相对较高的劳动力优先实现非农转移,这种现象的出现必然要求我们在借鉴刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型的同时要根据现实国情对其进行补充与完善。在将人力资本积累率作为外生变量的现有文献中,劳动力转移必然导致农村人力资本的流失,农村地区人力资本的浅化是较高文化水平劳动力非农迁移的自然结论。将人力资本因素引入到刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型中后,以上现象的出现将导致刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型中短缺点和商业化点重合的转折点推后到来。此时,二元经济的成功发展,在刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型给出的条件之外,同时要求农业从业者的人均人力资本投资增长率大于由于劳动力转移所产生的农业劳均人力资本存量的损失率。这是依据中国国情对刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型做出的补充。
事实上,选择性迁移在很大程度上同时决定着农村居民家庭的人力资本投资决策。如果将人力资本积累率处理为迁移过程的内生变量而非外生因素,那么,选择性迁移会在跨部门套利动机的驱使下提高对人力资本投资的需求,同时也有利于提高向人的质量投资的能力,因而可能出现农村地区人力资本深化的结果。
本文对刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯模型进行了修正,将人力资本因素引入到劳动力的转移过程中。以舒尔茨的改造传统农业理论和包含人力资本因素的新经济增长理论为理论基础,分析了人力资本内生的农业发展机制及其发挥作用的途径,并借鉴Kanbur和Rapoport提供的分析方法,构造了选择性迁移条件下的农村人力资本积累模型,由此建立起劳动力迁移、人力资本水平与中国农业发展之间的相关性,对改革开放以来我国农村劳动力的选择性迁移、人力资本深化与中国农业发展趋势的时间序列的分析,在一定程度上支持了本文的结论,最终获得在选择性迁移条件下,由劳动力非农转移带来的农业和农村地区人力资本水平的提高是推进我国农业发展的根本动力的结论。
笔者提出的相关政策建议如下:第一,建立公共信息网络,为农民流动迁移提供有效的信息引导,改革户籍制度和土地制度,消除劳动力迁移的制度障碍;第二,通过教育改革、刺激人力资本的个人投资、加大政府对农村地区教育的财政投入以及吸引人才政策的实施,提高农村人力资本水平;第三,在促进劳动力迁移和提高劳动力人力资本水平的基础上,促进农业高新技术的推广和应用、加快农村科技发展利成果转化、发展以劳动密集型产品生产为主的“三高”农业、推进农业产业化经营,以保证我国由传统农业向现代农业转型的顺利实现。
China is the biggest developing country in the world. And it is a large agricultural nation in which agriculture play an important role. At present, our agriculture has entered a new stage of development. The new stage have new features. We should consider the new problem of china's agriculture from a new point of view. Can we truly make advice for China's agricultural development.
The labor-surplus dual economic structure is the main characteristic of our country economic system. The surplus labor transfer from agricultural department to industry department is the core progress of the dual economic structure transforms. The Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model can be chosed to analyze the prolem of developing country's rural surplus labor transfer. But in recent years, due to the return on education is gradually increasing in the process of industrialization and urbanization, the non-agricultural transfer of labor force show the characteristics of selectivity, the labor force who has the higher level of education is prior to finish the non-agricultural transfer. This kind of phenomenon requires us to learn from the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, at the same time, supply and improve it according to China's actual situation. In the existing literature in which the accumulation rate of human capital be regarded as exogenous variable, labor force transfer will inevitably lead to the loss of human capital. The decreasing of human capital in rural areas is caused by the non-agricultural transfer of labor force who has the higher level of education. After the human capital introduced into the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, the above phenomenon will lead to the postponed coming of turning point of the shortage point and the commercial point coincidence. Moreover, besides those conditons introduced by the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model, a successful development of dual economy also depends on conditon that the ratio of net growth of the agricultural worker's average labor capital be more than zero. This is complement for the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model according to China's actual situation.
In deed, selecive transfer to a large extent determines the investmment decisions of the rural households. If the accumulation rate of human capital be regarded as endogenous variables rather than exogenous factor, then selecive transfer improve the demand for the investment of human capital drived by the motive of arbitrage in the cross-sectoral, but also it is in favor of raising the ability of investment for people's quality, which may accur the result of human capital deepening in rural areas.
In this paper, we amend the Lewis-Fei-Ranis Model of agricultural development, and induced human capital into the process of labor force transfer. Based on Schulz's transfermation of tradition agricultural theory and the new economic growth theory included human capital, this paper analyzes the agricultural development mechanism of huamn capital innovation and the way it play the roal. And learn from the analyzing method made by Kanbu and Rapoport, we make the model of the accumulation of human capital in rural under selective transfer, establishing the relationship of labor force trabsfer、human capital level and China's agricultural development. The analyzing for the times series of China's selective transfer of rural labor force、the deepening of human capital and agricultural development from reform and open policy carried out to a large extend support the conclusion in this paper. Finally, a conclusion is drawn that, under the condition of selective transfer, the human capital in agricultural and rural areas that brought by labor force non-agricultural transfer will be foundamental power to drive agricultural development.
Author proposes related policy suggestion as follows: firstly, through setting up a public information network to provide the effective leading of information for farmer's transfer, through reforming the residence registration system and land system to eliminate the barriers of labor force tranfer; Secondly, through reforming education system、simulating personal investment of human capital、increasing government financial investment for education in rural areas to raise the level of human capital; Thirdly, based on promoting labor force transfer and raising the level of human capital, promote agricultural high-tech popularization and application, speed up development and transformation of rural achievements in science and technology, develop the "three high" agriculture which main products are labor-intensive products, promote industrialization of agriculture to ensure that China's transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture can be achieved smoothly.
引文
6刘易斯.无限劳动供给下的经济发展.曼彻斯特学派经济和社会研究,1954(5):139-191。
7刘易斯将边际生产率为零的农业劳动力定义为过剩劳动力。
8这种剩余劳动力大部门来自农业部门中的隐蔽失业肯、小商小贩和妇女。
9现代工业部门为了吸引农业部门中的劳动力,其工资水平一般要比农业部门高出30%。
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7刘易斯将边际生产率为零的农业劳动力定义为过剩劳动力。
8这种剩余劳动力大部门来自农业部门中的隐蔽失业肯、小商小贩和妇女。
9现代工业部门为了吸引农业部门中的劳动力,其工资水平一般要比农业部门高出30%。
[1]西奥多·W·舒尔茨.改造传统农业[M].梁小民译.北京:商务印书馆,2006:26-27.
[2]费景汉,古斯塔夫·拉尼斯.增长与发展:演进的观点[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004:287.
[3]费景汉,古斯塔夫·拉尼斯.劳力剩余经济的发展[M].北京:华夏出版社,1989.9:8-12,130-133.
[4](美)西奥多·W·舒尔茨.论人力资本投资[M].吴珠华等译.北京:北京经济出版社,1992.4:8-29.
[5]西奥多·W·舒尔茨.对人进行投资--人口质量经济学[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2002:12-43.
[6]同[1]:150-177.
[7]西奥多·舒尔茨.经济增长与农业[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1992:85-140.
[8]左大培,杨春学主笔,中国社会科学院“新经济增长理论的发展和比较研究”课题组集体撰写.经济增长理论模型的内生化历程[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:208-215.
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