关于易逝品电子市场交易时间的研究：何时进入市场？
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摘要
对于市场需求波动大、采购提前期长、销售期短的产品来说,电子二级市场能为零售商提供在销售季中通过与其他零售商交易而来的第二次补货机会。何时进行第二次补货是一个复杂的决策,需要权衡市场需求预测准确性、在补货前后的缺货和平均单位采购成本。在本文中作者用一个两阶段报童库存模型来研究在不同市场和产品的情景组合下的最有补获时间。我们发现最优交易时间对于二级市场即时价格函数、零售/批发价格比、低估预测误差和信息学习速度非常敏感,但是需求波动性和高估误差对于最优补货时间却没有太大影响。交易过早或者过晚在任何请景下都不是一个好决策。二级市场交易的总价值可以二分为信息价值和及期价格购买价值。我们对期初信息质量、需求波动性和零售/批发价格比对其中的信息价值进行了研究。另外,无论零售商何时交易,期初该零售商从上游供应商的定货始终要比没有二级市场交易的时候要少。一个有趣的发现是当库存水平很低的时候,即时补货并不是如传统的(未考虑预测信息质量)库存模型所推荐的那样是最优的决策。相反如果期初信息质量很差,更好的决策是:当库存水平低的时候不立即补货,而是延迟补货以得到更好的预测信息。这样虽然是发生了短期的缺货,但是从总体来看,由于更加准确的预测所带来的利益将超过短期的缺货成本。最后我们研究了二级市场交易不完美性和可替代性对于最优交易时间的影响。本文的理论贡献在于首次研究易逝品二级市场最优交易时间以及各种市场和产品特性对于最优交易时间的影响。本文的实际应用价值在于可以用于指导易逝品电子市场交易时间和定货策略,并且本文的结论可以延伸应用于多种库存补货决策。
In volatile, long-lead time and short selling-season markets, a secondary market enables retailers to update their inventory during the selling season. The decision of when to update involves complicated trade-offs between forecast accuracy, the likelihood of lost sales before/after the trading time and average purchasing cost. We use a two-stage inventory replenishment model to identify the optimal trading time across different scenarios. We find that the optimal trading time is sensitive to spot price pattern, the ratio of retail to wholesale prices, underestimate error and learning speed, but not to demand volatility and overestimate error. Trading too early or too late is never a good decision. The total value of secondary market trading can be dichotomized into value of information learning and value of spot price purchases. Impacts of prior information quality, demand volatility and retail margin on the value of information is discussed. No matter when the trading time is, the trader always buys less from upstream suppliers than he does without secondary markets. One interesting implication is that immediate replenishment when inventory level is low is not always the optimal solution. If information is too bad, it is better to wait, incurring short-term stock-out, to get better information to earn long-term gain. We also studied the impacts of imperfect secondary markets trading and substitutability of secondary markets trading on the optimal trading time and profits.
In volatile, long-lead time and short selling-season markets, a secondary market enables retailers to update their inventory during the selling season. The decision of when to update involves complicated trade-offs between forecast accuracy, the likelihood of lost sales before/after the trading time and average purchasing cost. We use a two-stage inventory replenishment model to identify the optimal trading time across different scenarios. We find that the optimal trading time is sensitive to spot price pattern, the ratio of retail to wholesale prices, underestimate error and learning speed, but not to demand volatility and overestimate error. Trading too early or too late is never a good decision. The total value of secondary market trading can be dichotomized into value of information learning and value of spot price purchases. Impacts of prior information quality, demand volatility and retail margin on the value of information is discussed. No matter when the trading time is, the trader always buys less from upstream suppliers than he does without secondary markets. One interesting implication is that immediate replenishment when inventory level is low is not always the optimal solution. If information is too bad, it is better to wait, incurring short-term stock-out, to get better information to earn long-term gain. We also studied the impacts of imperfect secondary markets trading and substitutability of secondary markets trading on the optimal trading time and profits.
引文
[1]逯宇铎,周会斌.电子商务将在汽车营销中得到应用[J].汽车工业研究,2002(6):17-20
[2]Wu D J.Kleindorfer P R.,Zhang Jin E.Optimal Bidding and contracting strategies for capital—intensive goods.European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(3):657-676
[3]Mukherji,Nivedita,Balaji Rajagopalan,Mohan Tanniru(2006),"A decision support model for optimal timing of investments in information technology upgrades",Decision Support Systems 42(3):1684.
[4]Miller,Kent D.,Timothy B.Folta(2002),"Option value and entry timing",Strategic Management Journal 23(7):655
[5]Prasad,Ashutosh,Bart Bronnenberg,Vijay Mahajan(2004),"Product Entry Timing in Dual Distribution Channels:The Case of the Movie Industry",Review of Marketing Science 2(1)
[6]Pindyck,Robert S.(2002),"Optimal timing problems in environmental economics",Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26:1677.
[7]Décamps,Jean-Paul and Thomas Mariotti(2004),"Investment timing and learning externalities",Journal of Economic Theory 118(1):80.
[8]Uiku,Sezer,L Beril Toktay and Enver Yucesan(2005),"The impact of outsourced manufacturing on timing of entry in uncertain markets",Production and Operations Management,14(3):301
[9]L.P.,Santiago and Bifano,T.G.(2005),"Management of R&D projects under uncertainty:a multidimentional approach to managerial flexibility",Engineering Management:IEEE Transactions on 52(2):269
[10]Huchzermeier,Arnd and Christoph H.Loch(2001),"Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D",Management Science 47(1):85
[11]Dong,Lingxiu,Erik Durbin(2005),"Markets for Surplus Components with a Strategic Supplier",Naval Research Logistics,52(8):734
[12]Johnson,M.Eric and Seungjin Whang(2002),"E-business and supply chain management:An overview and framework",Production and Operations Management 11(4):413
[13]H.,Jishnu,and B.Mahadevan(2006)."A procurement model for electronic markets." International Journal of Services Technology and Management 7(5/6):475.
[14]C.,Leon Yang,and S.Zuo-Jun Max(2007)."Trade reduction vs.multi-stage:A comparison of double auction design approaches." European Journal of Operational Research 180(2):677.
[15]Lau A,Lau H.The newsstand problem:a capacitated multi—product single—period inventory problem[J].OperationResearch,1996,94(1):29-42.
[16]Lau A,Lau H.Decision models for single—period products with two ordering opportunities[J].International Journal Production Economics,1998,55(1):57-70.
[17]Viswanathan S,Wang Q.Discount pricing decisions in distribution channels with price—sensitive demand[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,149(3):571-587.
[18]Hofmann C.Supplier's price policy in a just—in—time environment[J].Computer& Operations Research,2000,27(14):1357-1373.
[19]wee H,Yu J.A deteriorating inventory model with a temporary price discount[J].International Journal Production Economics,1997,53(1):81-90.
[20]Lam S.M,Wrong D.S.A fuzzy mathematical model for the joint economic lot size problem with multiple price breaks[J].The European Journal of Operational Research,1996,95(3):611-622.
[21]Khouja M,Mehrez A.A multi—product constrained newsboy problem with progressive discounts[J].Computer and Industrial Engineering,1996,30(1):95-101.
[22]Khouja M.Optimal ordering,discounting,and pricing in the single—period problem[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2000,65(2):201-216.
[23]Khouja M,Robbins S.Linking advertising and quantity decisions in the single—period inventory model[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2003,86(2):93-105.
[24]赵泉午,熊榆,林娅,熊中楷.多个零售商库存竞争下的易逝品回购合同研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(8):39-42.
[25]常志平 蒋馥.供应链中电子市场与合约市场的协调研究[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2004,32(1):111-113.
[26]赵泉午,熊中楷,林娅,卜祥智.基于电子市场的易逝品两级供应链供需博弈分析[J].中国管理科学,2004,12(3):91-96
[27]郭琼,杨德礼,樊博.基于电子与契约市场的供应链协作的研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(6):50-56.
[28]但斌,陈军,吴庆.基于多级折扣价格的易逝品订货策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(3):38-44.
[29]李君灵,蒋维。基于消费者保留价格的易逝品定价和订货的联合策略[J]。现代管理科学,2007(4):34-35.
[30]曹细玉,宁宜熙,覃艳华.基于预算费用约束下易逝品零售商的定货策略[J].决策参考,2006(3):28-29.
[31]李君灵,周晶.需求替代下易逝品价格和订购量的联合决策[J]。东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,37(4):738-742.
[32]张建军,霍佳震,赵晋。易逝品供应链回购激励机理研究[J].工业工程与工业管理,2007(5):83-88.
[33]陈军,但斌.易逝品联合采购订货决策分析[J].工业工程,2007,10(3):19-22.
[34]赵泉午,熊中楷,杨秀苔,卜祥智.易逝品两级供应链中的数量折扣问题研究[J].系统工程学报。2005,20(3):318-322.
[35]晏妮娜,黄小原.B2B电子市场下供应链期权合同协调模型与优化[J].控制与决策,2007,22(5):535-539.
[36]Tsay A.A.,Nahmias S.and Agrawal N..Modeling sup。 Dly chain contracts:a review Quantitative Models for Supply Chain Management[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000,299-336.
[37]Cachon G.P..Supply chain coordination with contracts[C].in S.Graves,Tonde,Kokeds.Handbook in Operation and Managements Science:Supply Chain Management North—Holland,2003.
[38]Wu D.J.,Kleindorfer P.R.,Jin E.Zhang.Optimal bidding and contracting atrategies for capital--intensive goods[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(3):657-676.
[39]Dolovachldna N..Supplier—Manufacturer relationships under forced compliance contracts[J].Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2003,5(1):67-69.
[40]Yan,Houmin,Ke Liu and Arthur Hsu(2003),"Optimal ordering in a dual-supplier system with demand forecast update",Production and Operations Management,12(1):30
[41]Ferguson,E Mark and Oded Koenigsberg(2007),"How should a firm manage deteriorating inventory", Production and Operations Management, 16(3): 306
[42] Moutaz Khouja. The single-period(news-vendor)prob. 1em-literature review and suggestions for future research [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 1999, 27: 537-553.
[43] R. Dekker, J. B. G. Frenk, M. J. Kleijn and A. D. de KOK. On the newsboy model with a cutoff transaction size[J]. HE transactions, 2000, 32: 461-469.
[44] M. S. Chen, C. C. Chuang. An extended newsboy problem with shortage-level constraints[J]. International Journal of Production Economies, 2000, 67: 269-277.
[45] Amy Hing, Ling Lau, Hon, Sang Lau. Decision models for single-period products with two ordering opportunities [J]. International Journal of Production Economies, 1998,
[46] Lee, H., Seungjin Whang, "The impact of secondary market on the supply chain", Management Science, 2002,48(6): 719.
[47] Dong, Lingxiu, Nils Rudi, Who benefits from transshipment? Exogenous vs. Endogenous Wholesale Prices, Management Science, 2004, V50(5): 645
[48] Yan Zou, Operations flexibilities through dynamic pricing and secondary market, Ph. D. dissertation, Department of Engineering Economic systems and Operations Research, Stanford University, 2005.
[49] Shi, Dailun, Robert Hampshire, Richard Daniels, William Grey, "The impact of option trading on supply chain management", working paper, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, 2004.
[50] Milner, M Joseph, Kouvelis, Panos. On the Complementary Value of Accurate Demand Information and Production and Supplier Flexibility [J] . MANUFACTURING & SERVICE OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, 2002, 4(2):99-113.
[2]Wu D J.Kleindorfer P R.,Zhang Jin E.Optimal Bidding and contracting strategies for capital—intensive goods.European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(3):657-676
[3]Mukherji,Nivedita,Balaji Rajagopalan,Mohan Tanniru(2006),"A decision support model for optimal timing of investments in information technology upgrades",Decision Support Systems 42(3):1684.
[4]Miller,Kent D.,Timothy B.Folta(2002),"Option value and entry timing",Strategic Management Journal 23(7):655
[5]Prasad,Ashutosh,Bart Bronnenberg,Vijay Mahajan(2004),"Product Entry Timing in Dual Distribution Channels:The Case of the Movie Industry",Review of Marketing Science 2(1)
[6]Pindyck,Robert S.(2002),"Optimal timing problems in environmental economics",Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26:1677.
[7]Décamps,Jean-Paul and Thomas Mariotti(2004),"Investment timing and learning externalities",Journal of Economic Theory 118(1):80.
[8]Uiku,Sezer,L Beril Toktay and Enver Yucesan(2005),"The impact of outsourced manufacturing on timing of entry in uncertain markets",Production and Operations Management,14(3):301
[9]L.P.,Santiago and Bifano,T.G.(2005),"Management of R&D projects under uncertainty:a multidimentional approach to managerial flexibility",Engineering Management:IEEE Transactions on 52(2):269
[10]Huchzermeier,Arnd and Christoph H.Loch(2001),"Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D",Management Science 47(1):85
[11]Dong,Lingxiu,Erik Durbin(2005),"Markets for Surplus Components with a Strategic Supplier",Naval Research Logistics,52(8):734
[12]Johnson,M.Eric and Seungjin Whang(2002),"E-business and supply chain management:An overview and framework",Production and Operations Management 11(4):413
[13]H.,Jishnu,and B.Mahadevan(2006)."A procurement model for electronic markets." International Journal of Services Technology and Management 7(5/6):475.
[14]C.,Leon Yang,and S.Zuo-Jun Max(2007)."Trade reduction vs.multi-stage:A comparison of double auction design approaches." European Journal of Operational Research 180(2):677.
[15]Lau A,Lau H.The newsstand problem:a capacitated multi—product single—period inventory problem[J].OperationResearch,1996,94(1):29-42.
[16]Lau A,Lau H.Decision models for single—period products with two ordering opportunities[J].International Journal Production Economics,1998,55(1):57-70.
[17]Viswanathan S,Wang Q.Discount pricing decisions in distribution channels with price—sensitive demand[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,149(3):571-587.
[18]Hofmann C.Supplier's price policy in a just—in—time environment[J].Computer& Operations Research,2000,27(14):1357-1373.
[19]wee H,Yu J.A deteriorating inventory model with a temporary price discount[J].International Journal Production Economics,1997,53(1):81-90.
[20]Lam S.M,Wrong D.S.A fuzzy mathematical model for the joint economic lot size problem with multiple price breaks[J].The European Journal of Operational Research,1996,95(3):611-622.
[21]Khouja M,Mehrez A.A multi—product constrained newsboy problem with progressive discounts[J].Computer and Industrial Engineering,1996,30(1):95-101.
[22]Khouja M.Optimal ordering,discounting,and pricing in the single—period problem[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2000,65(2):201-216.
[23]Khouja M,Robbins S.Linking advertising and quantity decisions in the single—period inventory model[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2003,86(2):93-105.
[24]赵泉午,熊榆,林娅,熊中楷.多个零售商库存竞争下的易逝品回购合同研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(8):39-42.
[25]常志平 蒋馥.供应链中电子市场与合约市场的协调研究[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2004,32(1):111-113.
[26]赵泉午,熊中楷,林娅,卜祥智.基于电子市场的易逝品两级供应链供需博弈分析[J].中国管理科学,2004,12(3):91-96
[27]郭琼,杨德礼,樊博.基于电子与契约市场的供应链协作的研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(6):50-56.
[28]但斌,陈军,吴庆.基于多级折扣价格的易逝品订货策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(3):38-44.
[29]李君灵,蒋维。基于消费者保留价格的易逝品定价和订货的联合策略[J]。现代管理科学,2007(4):34-35.
[30]曹细玉,宁宜熙,覃艳华.基于预算费用约束下易逝品零售商的定货策略[J].决策参考,2006(3):28-29.
[31]李君灵,周晶.需求替代下易逝品价格和订购量的联合决策[J]。东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,37(4):738-742.
[32]张建军,霍佳震,赵晋。易逝品供应链回购激励机理研究[J].工业工程与工业管理,2007(5):83-88.
[33]陈军,但斌.易逝品联合采购订货决策分析[J].工业工程,2007,10(3):19-22.
[34]赵泉午,熊中楷,杨秀苔,卜祥智.易逝品两级供应链中的数量折扣问题研究[J].系统工程学报。2005,20(3):318-322.
[35]晏妮娜,黄小原.B2B电子市场下供应链期权合同协调模型与优化[J].控制与决策,2007,22(5):535-539.
[36]Tsay A.A.,Nahmias S.and Agrawal N..Modeling sup。 Dly chain contracts:a review Quantitative Models for Supply Chain Management[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000,299-336.
[37]Cachon G.P..Supply chain coordination with contracts[C].in S.Graves,Tonde,Kokeds.Handbook in Operation and Managements Science:Supply Chain Management North—Holland,2003.
[38]Wu D.J.,Kleindorfer P.R.,Jin E.Zhang.Optimal bidding and contracting atrategies for capital--intensive goods[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(3):657-676.
[39]Dolovachldna N..Supplier—Manufacturer relationships under forced compliance contracts[J].Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2003,5(1):67-69.
[40]Yan,Houmin,Ke Liu and Arthur Hsu(2003),"Optimal ordering in a dual-supplier system with demand forecast update",Production and Operations Management,12(1):30
[41]Ferguson,E Mark and Oded Koenigsberg(2007),"How should a firm manage deteriorating inventory", Production and Operations Management, 16(3): 306
[42] Moutaz Khouja. The single-period(news-vendor)prob. 1em-literature review and suggestions for future research [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 1999, 27: 537-553.
[43] R. Dekker, J. B. G. Frenk, M. J. Kleijn and A. D. de KOK. On the newsboy model with a cutoff transaction size[J]. HE transactions, 2000, 32: 461-469.
[44] M. S. Chen, C. C. Chuang. An extended newsboy problem with shortage-level constraints[J]. International Journal of Production Economies, 2000, 67: 269-277.
[45] Amy Hing, Ling Lau, Hon, Sang Lau. Decision models for single-period products with two ordering opportunities [J]. International Journal of Production Economies, 1998,
[46] Lee, H., Seungjin Whang, "The impact of secondary market on the supply chain", Management Science, 2002,48(6): 719.
[47] Dong, Lingxiu, Nils Rudi, Who benefits from transshipment? Exogenous vs. Endogenous Wholesale Prices, Management Science, 2004, V50(5): 645
[48] Yan Zou, Operations flexibilities through dynamic pricing and secondary market, Ph. D. dissertation, Department of Engineering Economic systems and Operations Research, Stanford University, 2005.
[49] Shi, Dailun, Robert Hampshire, Richard Daniels, William Grey, "The impact of option trading on supply chain management", working paper, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, 2004.
[50] Milner, M Joseph, Kouvelis, Panos. On the Complementary Value of Accurate Demand Information and Production and Supplier Flexibility [J] . MANUFACTURING & SERVICE OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, 2002, 4(2):99-113.