新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究
|
摘要
随着科学技术的快速发展,新兴技术层出不穷,新兴技术给国家、产业和社会带来的影响也越来越大,现在没有哪个国家可以忽视新兴技术的发展,在某种意义上,可以说未来国家、产业和企业的竞争是新兴技术的竞争,特别是新兴技术产业化的数量,质量和速度的竞争。但如何识别新兴技术,进而对其进行评价和选择,以及最终使新兴技术实现商业化和产业化是摆在国家和企业面前的一道难题,同时这也是理论界研究比较薄弱的方面。
本文依托导师黄鲁成教授主持的国家自然科学基金重点项目《奥运科技产业化及基于奥运市场规则的国际化发展研究》(70639002),通过采用属性综合评价方法、技术预见、模糊一致性矩阵和系统动力学方法,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性进行了深入系统的研究,同时进行了相应的对策研究。
首先,对国内外关于技术评价和新兴技术产业化潜力评价的理论与方法进行了系统的研究。重点对技术选择的方法、实践,以及技术评价范式的发展和技术评价理论的发展进行了比较全面的总结,特别地,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价的指标体系,评价的模型和方法进行了系统的梳理。
其次,对新兴技术的内涵、特征,新兴技术的分类和形成路径,以及新兴技术的识别进行了深入的总结研究,在此基础上,构建了新兴技术的识别指标体系,并利用属性综合评价方法对新兴技术进行了定量的识别研究。对新兴技术产业化潜力的概念,产业化过程的特点进行了系统的分析。对新兴技术产业化潜力的影响因素:技术因素,市场因素,产业因素,符合性因素,和效应因素进行了系统的辨识和详细的分析。为后续章节的新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究奠定了研究基础。
第三,构建了一个先由课题组成员初选、初级技术人员和实验室人员再选,以及基于技术预见和模糊一致性矩阵终选的新兴技术产业化潜力评价的三阶段模型。基于技术预见的方法和思想,通过Delphi和专家调查法构建了新兴技术产业化潜力的评价指标体系,并利用配对t检验的方法,对所建立的指标体系就新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价进行了分析对比,得出了新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价之间的不同点,验证了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系的科学性和适用性。在此基础上利用Delphi方法和名义专家小组法对待评价新兴技术产业化潜力进行专家打分,同时以待评价新兴技术背景资料的定量数据,对专家的打分进行了定量化的修正,使得评价具有了兼顾定性和定量指标,主、客观相结合的特点,这样最大限度地使用了可以获得的评价资源,使评价更具合理性和科学性。最后使用模糊一致性矩阵的方法对新兴技术产业化潜力进行了评价研究。
第四,新兴技术产业化潜力成长性通过系统动力学建模,模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的基本结构、基本回路、典型的动态行为模式及其动力学性质;模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性与影响因素的动态关系,在此基础上提出了若干有关新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的管理战略和决策方面的建议。
For the time being, emerging technologies have mushroomed up gradually with the rapid development of science and technology, and emerging technologies have bring obvious impacts on states, industries and societies. There is no countries which can oversee the development of emerging technologies, it can be say that the competition between countries and states are the one of emerging technologies, specially the quality, quantity and speed of commercialization and industrialization of emerging technologies. It is not only a difficult task for countries and enterprises to identify, further evaluate and select emerging technologies, finally commercialize and industrialize emerging technologies; but also an weak issue for researchers to study theoretically.
This paper was based on the key research project“Olympic science and technology industrialization and globalization based on Olympic marketing regulation”lead by advisor, professor Huang Lu-cheng, which was supported by The National Nature Science Foundation of China (70629002). This paper has systematically and deeply studied the emerging technology industrialization potential assessment and its growth by attribute comprehensive assessment method, technology foresight, fuzzy consistency matrix and system dynamic.
At first, this paper has systematically reviewed the technology evaluation and emerging technology industrialization potential assessment theory and methodologies in China and abroad. The review focuses on the technology assessment methodologies, practices, paradigm development and assessment theory development. Specially the systematical review was made of emerging technology industrialization potential assessment indexing systems, models and methodologies. Secondly, deeply study on meaning and characteristic, classification and forming routing, identification of emerging technology was made. And a comprehensive method was proposed to identify emerging technologies by attribute synthesis method.
The systematical analysis was made of emerging technologies industrialization potential meaning and process; the comprehensive analysis and identification made of the influencing factors of emerging technologies industrialization potential, such as technical factors, market factors, industrial factors, conformity factors, environmental and resources factors and risk factors. This part has lay an solid study base for emerging technologies industrialization potential and its growth assessment.
Thirdly, this paper proposed three stages model of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment, which is initial selection by team members, re-selection by primary technicians and lab researcher, and final-selection by technology foresight method and fuzzy consistence matrix. By the introduction of technology foresight method and thought, the indexing system of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was set-up by Delphi method and expert panels; and analyzed the established indexing system by paired t test, obtained the different focuses of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment and traditional technologies assessment to validate the science and applicability of the established indexing system. The emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was made based on expert score and technology background information by fuzzy consistency matrix, which is a method combining subject opinion and subjective data, fully utilized available information.
Fourthly, the system dynamic model of emerging technologies industrialization potential growth was built to simulate and analyze the basic structure,basic circuit,typically dynamic behavior pattern and their SD characteristics during the growth of emerging technologies industrialization potential. This paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging technologies industrialization potential growth and influencing factors, and proposed some suggestion of management stratagem and policy for emerging technologies industrialization potential growth.
本文依托导师黄鲁成教授主持的国家自然科学基金重点项目《奥运科技产业化及基于奥运市场规则的国际化发展研究》(70639002),通过采用属性综合评价方法、技术预见、模糊一致性矩阵和系统动力学方法,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性进行了深入系统的研究,同时进行了相应的对策研究。
首先,对国内外关于技术评价和新兴技术产业化潜力评价的理论与方法进行了系统的研究。重点对技术选择的方法、实践,以及技术评价范式的发展和技术评价理论的发展进行了比较全面的总结,特别地,对新兴技术产业化潜力评价的指标体系,评价的模型和方法进行了系统的梳理。
其次,对新兴技术的内涵、特征,新兴技术的分类和形成路径,以及新兴技术的识别进行了深入的总结研究,在此基础上,构建了新兴技术的识别指标体系,并利用属性综合评价方法对新兴技术进行了定量的识别研究。对新兴技术产业化潜力的概念,产业化过程的特点进行了系统的分析。对新兴技术产业化潜力的影响因素:技术因素,市场因素,产业因素,符合性因素,和效应因素进行了系统的辨识和详细的分析。为后续章节的新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究奠定了研究基础。
第三,构建了一个先由课题组成员初选、初级技术人员和实验室人员再选,以及基于技术预见和模糊一致性矩阵终选的新兴技术产业化潜力评价的三阶段模型。基于技术预见的方法和思想,通过Delphi和专家调查法构建了新兴技术产业化潜力的评价指标体系,并利用配对t检验的方法,对所建立的指标体系就新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价进行了分析对比,得出了新兴技术产业化潜力与传统技术评价之间的不同点,验证了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系的科学性和适用性。在此基础上利用Delphi方法和名义专家小组法对待评价新兴技术产业化潜力进行专家打分,同时以待评价新兴技术背景资料的定量数据,对专家的打分进行了定量化的修正,使得评价具有了兼顾定性和定量指标,主、客观相结合的特点,这样最大限度地使用了可以获得的评价资源,使评价更具合理性和科学性。最后使用模糊一致性矩阵的方法对新兴技术产业化潜力进行了评价研究。
第四,新兴技术产业化潜力成长性通过系统动力学建模,模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的基本结构、基本回路、典型的动态行为模式及其动力学性质;模拟分析了新兴技术产业化潜力成长性与影响因素的动态关系,在此基础上提出了若干有关新兴技术产业化潜力成长性的管理战略和决策方面的建议。
For the time being, emerging technologies have mushroomed up gradually with the rapid development of science and technology, and emerging technologies have bring obvious impacts on states, industries and societies. There is no countries which can oversee the development of emerging technologies, it can be say that the competition between countries and states are the one of emerging technologies, specially the quality, quantity and speed of commercialization and industrialization of emerging technologies. It is not only a difficult task for countries and enterprises to identify, further evaluate and select emerging technologies, finally commercialize and industrialize emerging technologies; but also an weak issue for researchers to study theoretically.
This paper was based on the key research project“Olympic science and technology industrialization and globalization based on Olympic marketing regulation”lead by advisor, professor Huang Lu-cheng, which was supported by The National Nature Science Foundation of China (70629002). This paper has systematically and deeply studied the emerging technology industrialization potential assessment and its growth by attribute comprehensive assessment method, technology foresight, fuzzy consistency matrix and system dynamic.
At first, this paper has systematically reviewed the technology evaluation and emerging technology industrialization potential assessment theory and methodologies in China and abroad. The review focuses on the technology assessment methodologies, practices, paradigm development and assessment theory development. Specially the systematical review was made of emerging technology industrialization potential assessment indexing systems, models and methodologies. Secondly, deeply study on meaning and characteristic, classification and forming routing, identification of emerging technology was made. And a comprehensive method was proposed to identify emerging technologies by attribute synthesis method.
The systematical analysis was made of emerging technologies industrialization potential meaning and process; the comprehensive analysis and identification made of the influencing factors of emerging technologies industrialization potential, such as technical factors, market factors, industrial factors, conformity factors, environmental and resources factors and risk factors. This part has lay an solid study base for emerging technologies industrialization potential and its growth assessment.
Thirdly, this paper proposed three stages model of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment, which is initial selection by team members, re-selection by primary technicians and lab researcher, and final-selection by technology foresight method and fuzzy consistence matrix. By the introduction of technology foresight method and thought, the indexing system of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was set-up by Delphi method and expert panels; and analyzed the established indexing system by paired t test, obtained the different focuses of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment and traditional technologies assessment to validate the science and applicability of the established indexing system. The emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was made based on expert score and technology background information by fuzzy consistency matrix, which is a method combining subject opinion and subjective data, fully utilized available information.
Fourthly, the system dynamic model of emerging technologies industrialization potential growth was built to simulate and analyze the basic structure,basic circuit,typically dynamic behavior pattern and their SD characteristics during the growth of emerging technologies industrialization potential. This paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging technologies industrialization potential growth and influencing factors, and proposed some suggestion of management stratagem and policy for emerging technologies industrialization potential growth.
引文
1. Gary Blau, Bharat Mehta, Shantanu Bose, Joe Pekny, Gavin Sinclair, Kay Keunker, Paul Bunch. Risk management in the development of new products in highly regulated industries. Computers and Chemical Engineering. July, 2000,24(2-7): 659-664
2.乔治·戴,保罗·休梅克.沃顿论新兴技术管理[M].华夏出版社.2002(1): 4-10
3.高旭东.“后来者劣势”与我国企业发展新兴技术的对策[J].管理学报,2005(3): 291-294
4.唐五湘,程桂枝,周飞跃.新时期加速我国科技成果转化的战略研究.科技管理研究[J].2006(5): 1-3
5.丁静.浅析我国的科技成果转化.西南民族学院学报[J]·哲学社会科学版.2003(4):320-322
6.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的模式及其对中国的借鉴[J].科学学研究.2004(10):482-487
7.仝允桓,谈毅,饶族海.技术评价方法的有效性分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版). 2004(6):7-9
8.郭碧坚,韩宇.同行评议制—方法、理论、功能、指标[J].科学学研究.1994,12(3): 63-73
9.曲立吕,晓岚.国内外科技项目评价方法比较[J].企业经济.2005,(3): 36-38
10.徐蔼婷.德尔菲法的应用及其难点[J].中国统计.2006(9): 57-59
11.刘景江,郑刚,许庆瑞.国外R&D项目测度与评价研究述评[J].科研管理.2001,22(6): 9-13
12.周琳,殷学平.科研项目评估方法的研究[J].解放军医院管理杂志.2002,9(1): 16-19
13. Yeou-Geng Hsu, Gwo-Hshing Tzeng and Joseph Z.Shyu Fuzzy multiple criteria selection of government-sponsored frontier technology R&D projects [J]. R&D Management. 2003,33(5): 539-572
14. Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2004,3(3): 287-303
15.王瑞祥,穆荣平.从技术预测到技术预见——理论与方法[J].世界科学. 2003(4): 29-52
16. http: / /wwwlib.umi. com /dissertations/ fullcit/3044306
17. Allan gray, Agricultural Innovation and new Ventures: Assessing the Commercial Potential, in proc. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 86, 2004: 1322–1329
18. Hariolf Grupp. Status and Prospects of Technology Foresight in Germany after Ten Years·The Proceeding of international Conference on technology foresight. March 2001.Japan.
19. Ben R. Martin. Matching Social Needs and Technological Capabilities: Research foresight and the implications for social sciences (Paper presented at the DECD workshop on social sciences and innovation)[Z]. Tokyo: United Nations University, 2000.
20. Ben R. Martin. Technology foresight: A review of recent government exercises [J]. Science, Technology, Industry Review. 1996,(17):15-50
21. APEC技术预见网站http://www.apecforesight.org/.
22. OECD技术预见项目网页http://www.oecd.org/infobycountry/.
23. LAN M. Ten years of UK foresight paper presented at NISTEP. International Conference on Technology Foresight. Tokyo, Japan. 2003: 195 - 201
24. Choudhury. A. K, Shankar. R, Tiwarim K. Consensus based intelligent group decision-making model for the selection of advanced technology [J]. Decision SupportSystems. 2006 ( 42 ) :1 776 - 1 799.
25.陈德棉.科学技术评估和预测引论[M].安徽科学技术出版社, 1996
26.中国未来20年技术预见研究组.中国未来20年技术预见[M].科学出版社,2006
27.王海政,谈毅,仝允桓.面向公共决策技术评价的多维融合方法体系[J].科学学与科学技术管理.2006(7): 19-26
28.谈毅,仝允桓.面向公共决策技术评价范式演变及其在我国的发展[J].科学技术与辩证法.2004(4): 86-91
29.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的意义和政治影响分析[J].科学学研究.2004(4): 371-375
30.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的目标、特点和意义分析[J].人文杂志. 2004(5): 96-102
31.沈滢.现代技术评价理论与方法研究.吉林大学博士学位论文.2007
32. F. T. S. Chan, M. H. Chan and N. K. H. Tang. Evaluation methodologies for technology selection [J]. Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2000,107(1-3): 330-337
33. So Young Sohn and Tae Hee Moon. Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI)[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70(9): 885-899
34. Yongtae Park and Gwangman Park. A new method for technology valuation in monetary value: procedure and application [J].Technovation, 2004,24(5): 387-394
35. P.Moncada-Paterno-Castello, J.Rojo, F.Bellido. IPTS-TIM-Software V.1.1, A tool to help experts evaluate the marketability potential of new technologies [J].European commission-IPTS-TIM.1999.
36.董平.敏捷动员模式下国民经济动员潜力评价体系及方法研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版).2005(10): 3-5
37.马慧民,叶春明.BP神经网络在专利技术产业化筛选评估中的应用研究[J].科技管理研究.2005(6): 94-97
38.穆荣平,任中保等.中国未来20年技术预见德尔菲调查方法研究[J].科研管理.2006,(1): 1-7
39.秦远建,蔡程.电动汽车产业化水平AHP评价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报.2004(12): 277-281
40.冯霞、徐晋.基于神经网络的布图设计产业化前景评估[J].系统工程与电子技术.2006(7): 1020-1023
41.傅毓维,尹航.船舶工业科技成果转化项目评价指标体系研究[J].技术经济.2006(5): 92-95
42.沈红.生物技术商业化研究[D].华中科技大学博士论文.2004(4): 51-68
43. John H. Vanston. Better Forecasts, Better Plans, Better Results [J]. Research-Technology Management. 2003,1(1): 47-58
44. Jerome C. Glenn. Futures research methodology, Version 2.0. Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, 2003
45. Alan L. Porter. QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 9, November 2005: 1070-1081
46. M. Khouja, The Use of Data Envelopment Analysis for Technology Selection, Computers & Industrial Engineering .1995.28(1):123–132.
47. R.C. Baker, S. Talluri, A Closer Look at the Use of Data Envelopment Analysis for Technology Selection, Computers & Industrial Engineering. 1997.32(1):101–108
48. J.W. Lee, S.H. Kim, An Integrated Approach for Interdependent Information System ProjectSelection, International Journal of Project Management. 2001.19(2): 111–118.
49. E.W.N. Bernroider, V. Stix. Profile Distance Method—a Multi-attribute Decision Making Approach for Information System Investments, Decision Support Systems, 2006 42(2): 988-998
50. Brien Benson, Andrew P. Sage, Fellow, IEEE, and Gerald Cook, Fellow, IEEE Emerging Technology-Evaluation Methodology: with Application to Micro-electromechanical Systems Transaction on Engineering Management.1993. 40(2): 5
51. Noordin Shehabuddeen, David Probert, Robert Phaal. From theory to practice: challenges in operationalising a technology selection framework [J]. Technovation 26 (2006): 324-335
52. EU- US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting &Assessment Methods- Seville 13- 14 May 2004
53. http: / /www.jrc.es.European Commission Joint Research Centre.
54. Pietro Moncada-Paterno-Castello, Jaime Rojo , Felix Bellido , Fre′de′ric Fiore, Alexander Tu¨bke. Early identification and marketing of innovative technologies: a case study of RTD result valorisation at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre [J], Technovation 23 (2003) 655–667
55. Nathasit Gerdsri, An analytical approach to building a technology development envelope (TDE) for roadmapping of emerging technologies [J]. Technology Management: A Unifying Discipline for Melting the Boundaries, Aug. 2005: 123-135
56. Meade, L.M and Presley, A. R&D project selection using the analytic network process [J]. Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on. 2002,49(1): 59– 66
57. Yong-Gil Lee and Yong-Il Song. Selecting the key research areas in nano-technology field using technology cluster analysis: A case study based on National R&D Programs in South Korea [J]. Technovation. 2007,27(1-2): 57-64
58. Marcio de Miranda Santo, Gilda Massari Coelho, Dalci Maria dos Santos and Lélio Fellows Filho. Text mining as a valuable tool in foresight exercises: A study on nanotechnology [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2006,73(8): 1013-1027
59. Robert J. Watts and Alan L. Porter, Innovation forecasting [J], IEEE trans. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1997,56(1): 25-47
60. Joseph P. Martino, A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70(8): 719–733
61. Ronald N. Kostoff, Rene Tshiteya, Kirstin M. Pfeil and James A. Humenik. Electrochemical power text mining using bibliometrics and database tomography [J]. Journal of Power Sources. 2002,110(1): 163-176
62. Chia-Chen Chao, Jiann-Min Yang and Wen-Yuan Jen. Determining technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991 to 2005[J]. Technovation. 2007,27(5): 268-279
63. Murat Bengisu, Ramzi Nekhili, Forecasting Emerging Technologies with the Aid of Science and Technology Databases, Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2006 (73): 835–844
64. Jin Woo Lee and Soung Hie Kim. Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection [J]. Computers & Operations Research. 2000,27(4): 367-382
65. Victor A, Banuls and Jose L. Salmeron. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 12 September 2006 (12): 75-83
66. Tugrul U. Daim, Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin and Pisek Gerdsri. Forecasting emergingtechnologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2006,73(8): 981～1012
67.赵媖娴.技术创新及其利益相关者分析[J].科学对社会的影响. 2006(2): 12-16
68. Gary S.C. Pan. Information systems project abandonment: a stakeholder analysis [J]. International Journal of Information Management, 2005,25(2): 173-184
69. Roberts, Stephen Alexander. An analysis of stakeholder perceptions regarding the closure of the Highland Valley Copper mine [D]. Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-12, Section: B: 6898
70. Torsten Fleischer, Michael Decker and Ulrich Fiedeler. Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2005,11(9): 1112-1121
71. Chris Holmes and Mike Ferrill. The Application of Operation and Technology Roadmapping to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2005,72(3): 349-357
72.彭学龙,赵小东.政府资助研发成果商业化运用的制度激励——美国《拜杜法案》对我国的启示[J].电子知识产权. 2005(7): 42-44
73.张中华.美国政府、大学在科技成果商业化中的作用[J].国家教育行政学院学报. 2004(5): 96-101
74.关晓岗,张一红.科技商业化的若干推进策略[J].科技管理研究. 2005(3): 5-9
75.杨忠直,张世英.技术选择的评价与决策方法研究[J].中国软科学. 1997(1): 121-124
76.余晓岭,魏薇,杨忠直.技术项目评价与选择方法研究[J].管理工程学报. 2000(1): 31-35
77.宋艳.新兴技术的动态评估与小灵通的成功之道[J].管理学报. 2005(3): 337-379
78.陈腾,叶春明,沈杰. .基于DEA方法对高校科技成果转化效果评价.情报科学. 2006(8): 1199-1202
79.王宇宁,兰晓婕.电动汽车商业化运行模式探析[J].汽车工业研究. 2005(8): 21-23
80.张希良,陈荣,何建坤.中国生物质气化发电技术的商业化分析[J].太阳能学报. 2004(4): 557-560
81.沈虹,齐欢.生物技术商业化系统及未来[J].高科技与产业化. 2002(1): 17-20
82. Myers S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing [J]. Journal of Financial Economics. 1977(1): 147-175
83.曾勇,邓光军.新兴技术投资战略制定的原则与阶段性风险分析[J].武汉职业技术学院学报. 2006(3): 14-16
84.赵振元,银路.实物期权思维及其在新兴技术管理中的若干应用[J].预测. 2005(2): 20-24
85.边红霞.新兴技术财务管理期权评估研究[J].集团经济研究. 2005(11): 70-70
86.曾勇,邓光军.新兴技术初创企业价值的实物期权定价分析[J].系统工程. 2004(2): 74-81
87.夏晖,曾勇.新兴技术创新速度分析——种实物期权方法[J].管理学报. 2005(5): 295-300
88.陈华,万建平.实物期权在生物技术专利项目投资决策中的应用[J].湖北经济学院学报(人文社会科学版).2007(8): 65-66
89.林书雄.新兴技术的内涵及其不确定性分析[J].价值工程. 2006(9): 31-33
90.华宏鸣,郑邵濂.高新技术管理[M].上海.复旦大学出版社.1995(7): 4-28
91.宋艳,银路.新兴技术的物种特性及形成路径研究[J].管理学报. 2007(3): 211-215
92.赵洪江,陈学华,苏晓波.新兴技术、新技术、高技术及高新技术概念辨析.企业技术开发. 2005(11): 40-42
93.鲁若愚,张红琪.基于快变市场的新兴技术产品更新策略.管理学报. 2005(5): 317-320
94.吴东,张徽燕.论新兴技术对企业管理的影响及对策.科技与管理. 2005(1): 67-69
95.刘炬,李永建.新兴技术的技术不确定性及其对企业的启示.理论与改革. 2005(5): 159-160
96.李仕明.新兴技术管理研究综述[J].管理科学学报. 2007(12): 76-85
97.高建,魏平.新兴技术的特性与企业的技术选择[J].科研管理. 2007(1): 47-52
98.王润良,郑晓齐,孙建平.技术复杂性及其对组织结构的影响.科学学研究. 2001(9): 29-33
99.吴彤,胡晨.论技术复杂性.科学学研究. 2003(4): 126-130
100.魏国平.新兴技术管理策略研究--基于新兴技术特征的分类分析[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文. 2006年
101.谈毅,黄燕丽.基于过程的新兴技术规划与选择模型研究[J].科技管理研究.2007(8):5-8
102. .Ronald N. Kostoff, Robert Boylan, Gene R. Simons. Disruptive technology roadmaps[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2004(71): 141–159
103. .陈劲,戴凌燕,李良德.突破性创新及其识别[J].科技管理研究. 2002(5): 22-28
104.程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版). 1997(33): 12-20
105.陈永忠.高新技术商业化、产业化、国际化.人们出版社. 1997
106.眭振南,王贞萍.科研成果转化评估[M].上海财经大学出版社.1998: 34-52.
107.陈通,田红波.高新技术的企业化、市场化和产业化深化--高新技术产业化路径的实证研究[J].科技管理研究. 2002(3): 2-4
108.赵旭.关于新技术商业化关键影响因素的实证研究[D].清华大学硕士学位论文. 2004: 12-17
109.黄鲁成,王吉武,卢文光.基于ANP的新技术产业化潜力评价研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2007(4): 122-125
110.王吉武,黄鲁成,卢文光.新兴技术商业化潜力的内涵及评价方法辨析[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2008(4): 34-38
111. http://ewh.ieee.org/reg/7/canrev/canrev35/tech_comm.pdf
112.杨公朴,夏大慰.产业经济学教程(修订版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社. 2002
113.银纯泉.高新技术成果转化理论与实证研究.西南农业大学博士学位论文. 2004
114.舒春,綦良群,常伟.日本、美国、中国三国高新技术产业政策的比较分析.科技与管理. 2004(5): 20-23
115.卢文光,黄鲁成.技术预见在新技术评价中的应用.武汉工业大学学报(信息与管理工程版). 2008(6): 449-452
116.卢文光,黄鲁成,王吉武.新技术产业化潜力评价指标体系设置研究.科学学与科学技术管理.2008(2): 19-23
117.李洪杰.三标度法在群体判断和Fuzzy判断中的应用.系统工程理论与实践. 2001(7): 87-92
118. Luo Ya-Fei, Huang Lu-Cheng Cai Qian-long. How to Select and Weight the Indicators Usedfor Evaluating the Potential of New Technology Industrialization1[C]. Proceedings of Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology’07, August 05-09, 2007: 1694-1703P
119. Luke Georghiou. The United Kingdom Technology Foresight Programme [A]. Inzelt and Coenen (eds.). Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight [C]. Dordrecht [The Netherlands], Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996: 195-212.
120. Sibylle Breiner. Foresight in Science and Technology ? Selected Methodologies and Recent Activities in Germany [A]. Inzelt and Coenen (eds.). Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight [C]. Dordrecht [The Netherlands], Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
121. UNIDO.UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT MANUAL .Volume 1.Organization and methods.Vienna,2005.
122. UNIDO. UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT MANUAL .Volume 2.technology foresight in Action.Vienna,2005.
123.姚敏,张森.模糊一致矩阵及其在决策分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践. 1998,18(5): 78-81.
124.黄健元.模糊一致矩阵在多层次、多因素决策方案优选中的应用[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版. 1999,27(5): 84-89
125.张吉.建立改进的模糊一致矩阵优选气田开发方案[J].天然气工业. 2003,23(5): 92-94.
126.张吉军.模糊一致判断矩阵3种排序方法的比较研究[J].系统工程与电子技术. 2003,25(11): 1370-1372.
127.李子奈.高等计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社. 2000。
128.王其藩.系统动力学(修订版)[M].清华大学出版社. 1994.
129.王其藩.高级系统动力学汇[M].清华大学出版社. 1995
130. J.W.福雷斯特.工业动力学[M].胡汝鼎.杨通谊等人译.北京:科学出版社.1985
131. Tjark Struif Bontkes, Herman van Kenlen. Modelling the dynamics of agricultural development at farm and regional level. Agricultural System. 2003, 67(1): 379-396
132. Lasse T.T.Pesonen, Simo J.Salminen, Jean-Peter Ylen, Pasi Riihimaki. Dynamic simulation of product process. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory. 2008,16(8): 1091-1102
133. Sang Hyun Lee, Feniosky Pena-Mora, Moonseo Park.. Dynamic planning and control methodology for strategic and operational construction project management. Automation in Construction. 2006, 15(1): 84-97
134. Rousseau S, Rousseau R. Data Envelopment Analysis as a Tool for Constructing Scientometric [J]. Scientometrics. 1997,40(1): 45-56
135. Rousseau S, Rousseau R. The Scientific Wealth of European Nations: Taking Effectiveness Into Account [J]. Scientometrics. 1998,42(1): 75-87.
136. Inonu E. The Influence of Cultural Factors on Scientific Pro-duction [J]. Scientometrics. 2003, 56(1): 137-146.
137.余昕,王冬,韩楠,王欣.发达国家科研投入效率初探--基于16个OECD国家纵列数据的统计学分析.科技进步与对策科技进步与对策. 2007(8): 129-131
138.陈利华,杨宏进.我国科技投入的技术进步效应-基于30个省市跨省数据的实证分析.科学学与科学技术管理.2005(7): 55-59
139. 2006中国高技术产业统计年鉴.中国统计出版社
140. 2007中国高技术产业统计年鉴.中国统计出版社
141. http://www.zhb.gov.cn/
142.沈中元.中国汽车领域石油替代的可能性—现状、政策和长期展望.国际石油经济2006(11): 6-11
143. www.fuelcelltoday.com
144.赵群,张翔,李辉.基于燃料电池技术的新能源发展论述.机械. 2007(7): 1-5
2.乔治·戴,保罗·休梅克.沃顿论新兴技术管理[M].华夏出版社.2002(1): 4-10
3.高旭东.“后来者劣势”与我国企业发展新兴技术的对策[J].管理学报,2005(3): 291-294
4.唐五湘,程桂枝,周飞跃.新时期加速我国科技成果转化的战略研究.科技管理研究[J].2006(5): 1-3
5.丁静.浅析我国的科技成果转化.西南民族学院学报[J]·哲学社会科学版.2003(4):320-322
6.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的模式及其对中国的借鉴[J].科学学研究.2004(10):482-487
7.仝允桓,谈毅,饶族海.技术评价方法的有效性分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版). 2004(6):7-9
8.郭碧坚,韩宇.同行评议制—方法、理论、功能、指标[J].科学学研究.1994,12(3): 63-73
9.曲立吕,晓岚.国内外科技项目评价方法比较[J].企业经济.2005,(3): 36-38
10.徐蔼婷.德尔菲法的应用及其难点[J].中国统计.2006(9): 57-59
11.刘景江,郑刚,许庆瑞.国外R&D项目测度与评价研究述评[J].科研管理.2001,22(6): 9-13
12.周琳,殷学平.科研项目评估方法的研究[J].解放军医院管理杂志.2002,9(1): 16-19
13. Yeou-Geng Hsu, Gwo-Hshing Tzeng and Joseph Z.Shyu Fuzzy multiple criteria selection of government-sponsored frontier technology R&D projects [J]. R&D Management. 2003,33(5): 539-572
14. Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2004,3(3): 287-303
15.王瑞祥,穆荣平.从技术预测到技术预见——理论与方法[J].世界科学. 2003(4): 29-52
16. http: / /wwwlib.umi. com /dissertations/ fullcit/3044306
17. Allan gray, Agricultural Innovation and new Ventures: Assessing the Commercial Potential, in proc. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 86, 2004: 1322–1329
18. Hariolf Grupp. Status and Prospects of Technology Foresight in Germany after Ten Years·The Proceeding of international Conference on technology foresight. March 2001.Japan.
19. Ben R. Martin. Matching Social Needs and Technological Capabilities: Research foresight and the implications for social sciences (Paper presented at the DECD workshop on social sciences and innovation)[Z]. Tokyo: United Nations University, 2000.
20. Ben R. Martin. Technology foresight: A review of recent government exercises [J]. Science, Technology, Industry Review. 1996,(17):15-50
21. APEC技术预见网站http://www.apecforesight.org/.
22. OECD技术预见项目网页http://www.oecd.org/infobycountry/.
23. LAN M. Ten years of UK foresight paper presented at NISTEP. International Conference on Technology Foresight. Tokyo, Japan. 2003: 195 - 201
24. Choudhury. A. K, Shankar. R, Tiwarim K. Consensus based intelligent group decision-making model for the selection of advanced technology [J]. Decision SupportSystems. 2006 ( 42 ) :1 776 - 1 799.
25.陈德棉.科学技术评估和预测引论[M].安徽科学技术出版社, 1996
26.中国未来20年技术预见研究组.中国未来20年技术预见[M].科学出版社,2006
27.王海政,谈毅,仝允桓.面向公共决策技术评价的多维融合方法体系[J].科学学与科学技术管理.2006(7): 19-26
28.谈毅,仝允桓.面向公共决策技术评价范式演变及其在我国的发展[J].科学技术与辩证法.2004(4): 86-91
29.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的意义和政治影响分析[J].科学学研究.2004(4): 371-375
30.谈毅,仝允桓.公众参与技术评价的目标、特点和意义分析[J].人文杂志. 2004(5): 96-102
31.沈滢.现代技术评价理论与方法研究.吉林大学博士学位论文.2007
32. F. T. S. Chan, M. H. Chan and N. K. H. Tang. Evaluation methodologies for technology selection [J]. Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2000,107(1-3): 330-337
33. So Young Sohn and Tae Hee Moon. Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI)[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70(9): 885-899
34. Yongtae Park and Gwangman Park. A new method for technology valuation in monetary value: procedure and application [J].Technovation, 2004,24(5): 387-394
35. P.Moncada-Paterno-Castello, J.Rojo, F.Bellido. IPTS-TIM-Software V.1.1, A tool to help experts evaluate the marketability potential of new technologies [J].European commission-IPTS-TIM.1999.
36.董平.敏捷动员模式下国民经济动员潜力评价体系及方法研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版).2005(10): 3-5
37.马慧民,叶春明.BP神经网络在专利技术产业化筛选评估中的应用研究[J].科技管理研究.2005(6): 94-97
38.穆荣平,任中保等.中国未来20年技术预见德尔菲调查方法研究[J].科研管理.2006,(1): 1-7
39.秦远建,蔡程.电动汽车产业化水平AHP评价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报.2004(12): 277-281
40.冯霞、徐晋.基于神经网络的布图设计产业化前景评估[J].系统工程与电子技术.2006(7): 1020-1023
41.傅毓维,尹航.船舶工业科技成果转化项目评价指标体系研究[J].技术经济.2006(5): 92-95
42.沈红.生物技术商业化研究[D].华中科技大学博士论文.2004(4): 51-68
43. John H. Vanston. Better Forecasts, Better Plans, Better Results [J]. Research-Technology Management. 2003,1(1): 47-58
44. Jerome C. Glenn. Futures research methodology, Version 2.0. Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, 2003
45. Alan L. Porter. QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 9, November 2005: 1070-1081
46. M. Khouja, The Use of Data Envelopment Analysis for Technology Selection, Computers & Industrial Engineering .1995.28(1):123–132.
47. R.C. Baker, S. Talluri, A Closer Look at the Use of Data Envelopment Analysis for Technology Selection, Computers & Industrial Engineering. 1997.32(1):101–108
48. J.W. Lee, S.H. Kim, An Integrated Approach for Interdependent Information System ProjectSelection, International Journal of Project Management. 2001.19(2): 111–118.
49. E.W.N. Bernroider, V. Stix. Profile Distance Method—a Multi-attribute Decision Making Approach for Information System Investments, Decision Support Systems, 2006 42(2): 988-998
50. Brien Benson, Andrew P. Sage, Fellow, IEEE, and Gerald Cook, Fellow, IEEE Emerging Technology-Evaluation Methodology: with Application to Micro-electromechanical Systems Transaction on Engineering Management.1993. 40(2): 5
51. Noordin Shehabuddeen, David Probert, Robert Phaal. From theory to practice: challenges in operationalising a technology selection framework [J]. Technovation 26 (2006): 324-335
52. EU- US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting &Assessment Methods- Seville 13- 14 May 2004
53. http: / /www.jrc.es.European Commission Joint Research Centre.
54. Pietro Moncada-Paterno-Castello, Jaime Rojo , Felix Bellido , Fre′de′ric Fiore, Alexander Tu¨bke. Early identification and marketing of innovative technologies: a case study of RTD result valorisation at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre [J], Technovation 23 (2003) 655–667
55. Nathasit Gerdsri, An analytical approach to building a technology development envelope (TDE) for roadmapping of emerging technologies [J]. Technology Management: A Unifying Discipline for Melting the Boundaries, Aug. 2005: 123-135
56. Meade, L.M and Presley, A. R&D project selection using the analytic network process [J]. Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on. 2002,49(1): 59– 66
57. Yong-Gil Lee and Yong-Il Song. Selecting the key research areas in nano-technology field using technology cluster analysis: A case study based on National R&D Programs in South Korea [J]. Technovation. 2007,27(1-2): 57-64
58. Marcio de Miranda Santo, Gilda Massari Coelho, Dalci Maria dos Santos and Lélio Fellows Filho. Text mining as a valuable tool in foresight exercises: A study on nanotechnology [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2006,73(8): 1013-1027
59. Robert J. Watts and Alan L. Porter, Innovation forecasting [J], IEEE trans. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1997,56(1): 25-47
60. Joseph P. Martino, A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70(8): 719–733
61. Ronald N. Kostoff, Rene Tshiteya, Kirstin M. Pfeil and James A. Humenik. Electrochemical power text mining using bibliometrics and database tomography [J]. Journal of Power Sources. 2002,110(1): 163-176
62. Chia-Chen Chao, Jiann-Min Yang and Wen-Yuan Jen. Determining technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991 to 2005[J]. Technovation. 2007,27(5): 268-279
63. Murat Bengisu, Ramzi Nekhili, Forecasting Emerging Technologies with the Aid of Science and Technology Databases, Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2006 (73): 835–844
64. Jin Woo Lee and Soung Hie Kim. Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection [J]. Computers & Operations Research. 2000,27(4): 367-382
65. Victor A, Banuls and Jose L. Salmeron. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 12 September 2006 (12): 75-83
66. Tugrul U. Daim, Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin and Pisek Gerdsri. Forecasting emergingtechnologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2006,73(8): 981～1012
67.赵媖娴.技术创新及其利益相关者分析[J].科学对社会的影响. 2006(2): 12-16
68. Gary S.C. Pan. Information systems project abandonment: a stakeholder analysis [J]. International Journal of Information Management, 2005,25(2): 173-184
69. Roberts, Stephen Alexander. An analysis of stakeholder perceptions regarding the closure of the Highland Valley Copper mine [D]. Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-12, Section: B: 6898
70. Torsten Fleischer, Michael Decker and Ulrich Fiedeler. Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2005,11(9): 1112-1121
71. Chris Holmes and Mike Ferrill. The Application of Operation and Technology Roadmapping to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2005,72(3): 349-357
72.彭学龙,赵小东.政府资助研发成果商业化运用的制度激励——美国《拜杜法案》对我国的启示[J].电子知识产权. 2005(7): 42-44
73.张中华.美国政府、大学在科技成果商业化中的作用[J].国家教育行政学院学报. 2004(5): 96-101
74.关晓岗,张一红.科技商业化的若干推进策略[J].科技管理研究. 2005(3): 5-9
75.杨忠直,张世英.技术选择的评价与决策方法研究[J].中国软科学. 1997(1): 121-124
76.余晓岭,魏薇,杨忠直.技术项目评价与选择方法研究[J].管理工程学报. 2000(1): 31-35
77.宋艳.新兴技术的动态评估与小灵通的成功之道[J].管理学报. 2005(3): 337-379
78.陈腾,叶春明,沈杰. .基于DEA方法对高校科技成果转化效果评价.情报科学. 2006(8): 1199-1202
79.王宇宁,兰晓婕.电动汽车商业化运行模式探析[J].汽车工业研究. 2005(8): 21-23
80.张希良,陈荣,何建坤.中国生物质气化发电技术的商业化分析[J].太阳能学报. 2004(4): 557-560
81.沈虹,齐欢.生物技术商业化系统及未来[J].高科技与产业化. 2002(1): 17-20
82. Myers S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing [J]. Journal of Financial Economics. 1977(1): 147-175
83.曾勇,邓光军.新兴技术投资战略制定的原则与阶段性风险分析[J].武汉职业技术学院学报. 2006(3): 14-16
84.赵振元,银路.实物期权思维及其在新兴技术管理中的若干应用[J].预测. 2005(2): 20-24
85.边红霞.新兴技术财务管理期权评估研究[J].集团经济研究. 2005(11): 70-70
86.曾勇,邓光军.新兴技术初创企业价值的实物期权定价分析[J].系统工程. 2004(2): 74-81
87.夏晖,曾勇.新兴技术创新速度分析——种实物期权方法[J].管理学报. 2005(5): 295-300
88.陈华,万建平.实物期权在生物技术专利项目投资决策中的应用[J].湖北经济学院学报(人文社会科学版).2007(8): 65-66
89.林书雄.新兴技术的内涵及其不确定性分析[J].价值工程. 2006(9): 31-33
90.华宏鸣,郑邵濂.高新技术管理[M].上海.复旦大学出版社.1995(7): 4-28
91.宋艳,银路.新兴技术的物种特性及形成路径研究[J].管理学报. 2007(3): 211-215
92.赵洪江,陈学华,苏晓波.新兴技术、新技术、高技术及高新技术概念辨析.企业技术开发. 2005(11): 40-42
93.鲁若愚,张红琪.基于快变市场的新兴技术产品更新策略.管理学报. 2005(5): 317-320
94.吴东,张徽燕.论新兴技术对企业管理的影响及对策.科技与管理. 2005(1): 67-69
95.刘炬,李永建.新兴技术的技术不确定性及其对企业的启示.理论与改革. 2005(5): 159-160
96.李仕明.新兴技术管理研究综述[J].管理科学学报. 2007(12): 76-85
97.高建,魏平.新兴技术的特性与企业的技术选择[J].科研管理. 2007(1): 47-52
98.王润良,郑晓齐,孙建平.技术复杂性及其对组织结构的影响.科学学研究. 2001(9): 29-33
99.吴彤,胡晨.论技术复杂性.科学学研究. 2003(4): 126-130
100.魏国平.新兴技术管理策略研究--基于新兴技术特征的分类分析[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文. 2006年
101.谈毅,黄燕丽.基于过程的新兴技术规划与选择模型研究[J].科技管理研究.2007(8):5-8
102. .Ronald N. Kostoff, Robert Boylan, Gene R. Simons. Disruptive technology roadmaps[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2004(71): 141–159
103. .陈劲,戴凌燕,李良德.突破性创新及其识别[J].科技管理研究. 2002(5): 22-28
104.程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版). 1997(33): 12-20
105.陈永忠.高新技术商业化、产业化、国际化.人们出版社. 1997
106.眭振南,王贞萍.科研成果转化评估[M].上海财经大学出版社.1998: 34-52.
107.陈通,田红波.高新技术的企业化、市场化和产业化深化--高新技术产业化路径的实证研究[J].科技管理研究. 2002(3): 2-4
108.赵旭.关于新技术商业化关键影响因素的实证研究[D].清华大学硕士学位论文. 2004: 12-17
109.黄鲁成,王吉武,卢文光.基于ANP的新技术产业化潜力评价研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2007(4): 122-125
110.王吉武,黄鲁成,卢文光.新兴技术商业化潜力的内涵及评价方法辨析[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2008(4): 34-38
111. http://ewh.ieee.org/reg/7/canrev/canrev35/tech_comm.pdf
112.杨公朴,夏大慰.产业经济学教程(修订版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社. 2002
113.银纯泉.高新技术成果转化理论与实证研究.西南农业大学博士学位论文. 2004
114.舒春,綦良群,常伟.日本、美国、中国三国高新技术产业政策的比较分析.科技与管理. 2004(5): 20-23
115.卢文光,黄鲁成.技术预见在新技术评价中的应用.武汉工业大学学报(信息与管理工程版). 2008(6): 449-452
116.卢文光,黄鲁成,王吉武.新技术产业化潜力评价指标体系设置研究.科学学与科学技术管理.2008(2): 19-23
117.李洪杰.三标度法在群体判断和Fuzzy判断中的应用.系统工程理论与实践. 2001(7): 87-92
118. Luo Ya-Fei, Huang Lu-Cheng Cai Qian-long. How to Select and Weight the Indicators Usedfor Evaluating the Potential of New Technology Industrialization1[C]. Proceedings of Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology’07, August 05-09, 2007: 1694-1703P
119. Luke Georghiou. The United Kingdom Technology Foresight Programme [A]. Inzelt and Coenen (eds.). Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight [C]. Dordrecht [The Netherlands], Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996: 195-212.
120. Sibylle Breiner. Foresight in Science and Technology ? Selected Methodologies and Recent Activities in Germany [A]. Inzelt and Coenen (eds.). Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight [C]. Dordrecht [The Netherlands], Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
121. UNIDO.UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT MANUAL .Volume 1.Organization and methods.Vienna,2005.
122. UNIDO. UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT MANUAL .Volume 2.technology foresight in Action.Vienna,2005.
123.姚敏,张森.模糊一致矩阵及其在决策分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践. 1998,18(5): 78-81.
124.黄健元.模糊一致矩阵在多层次、多因素决策方案优选中的应用[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版. 1999,27(5): 84-89
125.张吉.建立改进的模糊一致矩阵优选气田开发方案[J].天然气工业. 2003,23(5): 92-94.
126.张吉军.模糊一致判断矩阵3种排序方法的比较研究[J].系统工程与电子技术. 2003,25(11): 1370-1372.
127.李子奈.高等计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社. 2000。
128.王其藩.系统动力学(修订版)[M].清华大学出版社. 1994.
129.王其藩.高级系统动力学汇[M].清华大学出版社. 1995
130. J.W.福雷斯特.工业动力学[M].胡汝鼎.杨通谊等人译.北京:科学出版社.1985
131. Tjark Struif Bontkes, Herman van Kenlen. Modelling the dynamics of agricultural development at farm and regional level. Agricultural System. 2003, 67(1): 379-396
132. Lasse T.T.Pesonen, Simo J.Salminen, Jean-Peter Ylen, Pasi Riihimaki. Dynamic simulation of product process. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory. 2008,16(8): 1091-1102
133. Sang Hyun Lee, Feniosky Pena-Mora, Moonseo Park.. Dynamic planning and control methodology for strategic and operational construction project management. Automation in Construction. 2006, 15(1): 84-97
134. Rousseau S, Rousseau R. Data Envelopment Analysis as a Tool for Constructing Scientometric [J]. Scientometrics. 1997,40(1): 45-56
135. Rousseau S, Rousseau R. The Scientific Wealth of European Nations: Taking Effectiveness Into Account [J]. Scientometrics. 1998,42(1): 75-87.
136. Inonu E. The Influence of Cultural Factors on Scientific Pro-duction [J]. Scientometrics. 2003, 56(1): 137-146.
137.余昕,王冬,韩楠,王欣.发达国家科研投入效率初探--基于16个OECD国家纵列数据的统计学分析.科技进步与对策科技进步与对策. 2007(8): 129-131
138.陈利华,杨宏进.我国科技投入的技术进步效应-基于30个省市跨省数据的实证分析.科学学与科学技术管理.2005(7): 55-59
139. 2006中国高技术产业统计年鉴.中国统计出版社
140. 2007中国高技术产业统计年鉴.中国统计出版社
141. http://www.zhb.gov.cn/
142.沈中元.中国汽车领域石油替代的可能性—现状、政策和长期展望.国际石油经济2006(11): 6-11
143. www.fuelcelltoday.com
144.赵群,张翔,李辉.基于燃料电池技术的新能源发展论述.机械. 2007(7): 1-5