新国际分工、全球生产网络与中国制造业发展
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摘要
自上世纪50年代以来,产品内国际分工开始出现并逐渐主导了国际生产与贸易的形态,这一新型的国际分工模式将国与国之间基于比较优势的分工从产业与产品,深入到产品内部的工序和流程,由此所形成的全球生产网络进一步强化了世界各国的经济联系,对分工参与国乃至全球经济的发展产生了深远的影响。
中国作为新国际分工体系的后来者,以发展加工贸易和吸引外商直接投资为突破口迅速融入全球生产网络。在此过程中,中国的制造业部门高速成长,并已赢得“世界工厂”的声誉。然而,也有人指出中国制造业只是数量型增长,发展水平其实并不高。国内虽然已有较多文献评价了中国的分工地位,但研究视角大多停留在传统分工层面,其结论有待商榷。本文基于产品内国际分工的客观背景,从全球价值链视角对中国在新国际分工体系中的竞争力和地位进行综合评判,检验产品内分工对中国制造业的技术升级效应是否存在,并以发展中国家的样本数据和历史经验,探讨如何才能更好地承接国际外包业务,以及更快地提升全球价值链位置。
通过贸易数据的深入分析,研究发现,中国在产品内分工体系中的专业化层次较低,主要扮演“加工车间”的角色,尽管高技术产业和高技术产品发展迅猛,但竞争力集中在低附加值的劳动密集型生产阶段,从中获取的分工利益极为有限,总体而言,目前处于新国际分工体系的中低端位置。但纵向比较结果显示,中国在很短的时间内实现了产业升级和技术升级的阶段性目标,比较优势逐渐向全球价值链的中高端延伸,国际分工地位也有了明显改善。中国在融入东亚生产网络的过程中,逐渐崛起为东亚制造中心,削弱了日本和“亚洲四小龙”的网络影响力。同时,中国崛起的竞争效应推动网络成员乃至网络整体的专业化层次提升。借助中国在产品内分工各流程的衔接合作,东亚生产网络的内部联系进一步强化。此外,中国演进为东亚出口平台,使得东亚生产网络对世界市场出口的“双边贸易”转变为经由中国的“三角贸易”模式。
以中国的制造业部门作为研究对象,基于1995-2006年间的面板数据集,本文对产品内国际分工与生产率之间的关系进行实证分析,以检验这种新型国际分工模式是否产生了技术升级效应。研究发现,产品内国际分工从进口和出口两方面共同促进了生产率增长,但出口的贡献更大。分工的技术升级效应在近几年才开始显现且主要来源于零部件贸易。中间品出口通过熟练劳动力偏向的劳动要素配置效应以及其他途径间接推动技术进步,而中间品进口对于技术升级的作用则更多地依赖于投入引导效应和技术溢出效应。
利用20个发达国家(地区)和40个发展中国家的双边中间品贸易数据,对发展中国家承接国际外包的决定因素进行实证检验。截面样本和面板样本的计量结果显示,发展中国家的劳动成本和交易成本对发包方的区位选择都具有显著的影响,但低技术含量的外包业务更偏好选择低工资国家以节约劳动成本,而高技术含量的外包业务则更偏好选择高质量服务的国家以节约交易成本。中国在劳动成本和交易成本的大部分指标上都具有一定的比较优势,今后要更多地依靠服务和制度条件的改善,以抵消劳动成本上升的不利影响。40个发展中国家的经验数据表明,产品内国际分工对于价值链提升具有显著的推动作用,但主要来源于高层次分工合作的贡献,并且这一作用的发挥要以人力资本、服务质量以及制度环境等支持性条件的满足为前提。中国在参与产品内国际分工的过程中,价值链位置得到较大幅度的提升,交通服务质量的改进和偏向于高层次分工的政策引导起到关键作用,在人力资本和制度环境上还有进一步改善的潜力。
最后,对全文的研究结论进行了归纳总结,并在深入剖析中国参与产品内国际分工现存问题的基础上,从全球价值链角度对制造业升级问题做出了深刻的思考,并就如何在全球生产网络中发展中国制造业的问题提出了几点建议。
Intra-product international specialization emerged in 1950's and gradually dominated the form of international production and trade. This new pattern of international division of labor brings the specialization based on the comparative advantages among countries from the product itself into its inner working procedures and processes. Global production networks strengthen the relationship among countries and generate essential effects on the development of members.
Being a latecomer in the new system of international division of labor, China rapidly joined into global production networks through developing processing trade and attractiving foreign direct investment. China's industrial sectors have become the world factory, but some people suggest that China's manufacturing remains to be low level in fact. In the context of intra-product international specialization, this paper evaluated China's competitiveness and status from the perspective of global value chain. Then we discuss how to accept international outsourcing and upgrade according to the data and experience of developing countries.
Based on the analysis of trade data, the findings reveal that China mainly plays the actor of processing workshop in the intra-product specialization. The exports of high-tech industries and high-tech products increase rapidly, but China's competitiveness in such area focuses on the labor-intensive production stages of low value-added. However, China has achieved the staggered goals of industry upgrading and technology upgrading. China's position in the international division of labor has also been improved on. In the course of falling into East Asian production networks, China is emerging into the production center of East Asia. Meanwhile, the competition effects of China's emergence have upgraded the specialization stages of members and the whole networks. Through China's cooperation, the internal relationships of East Asian production networks have become closer. Moreover, China evolves into the export platform of East Asia, which makes the pattern of East Asian production networks exporting to world market change from "bilateral trade" into "triangular trade".
Base on a panel dataset over the period 1995-2006, we carry out an empirical investigation on the relationship between international intra-product specialization and productivity in Chinese manufacturing. The findings suggest that international intra-product specialization has promoted productivity growth from the aspects of imports and exports, while exports have made greater contribution to such growth. The effects of international intra-product specialization on technological upgrading appear in recent years and mainly from trade in parts and components. Export of intermediates drives technological progress from the effect of skilled-biased labor factor distribution. But import of intermediates accelerates technological upgrading depending on the effects of inputs channel and technology spillover.
This paper carried out an empirical investigation to test the determinants of developing countries receiving international outsourcing. The findings reveal that both labor cost and transaction cost in developing countries have significant impacts on the firms' location choice. Outsourcing with low technology contents is more willing to choose a country with low wage to save labor cost, but one with high technology contents is more likely choose a country with better quality of service to save transaction cost. China has comparative advantage in most indicators of labor cost and transaction cost. Based on an empirical study on forty developing countries, we find that intra-product specialization has a significant positive effect on upgrading value chain. However, such effect is mainly from the contributions of high-level cooperation and needs to meet some preconditions such as human capital, service and institution. In the course of joining into the intra-product specialization, China has upgraded value chain obviously. Improvements on transport services and the policies biased on high-level specialization play the important roles.
Finanlly, author sums up several main findings in the whole thesis. Based on in-depth analyzing the problems about China's joining into intra-product international specialization, this paper thinks about the strategies on industrial upgrading and propose some suggestion on how to develop China's manufacturing in global production networks.
中国作为新国际分工体系的后来者,以发展加工贸易和吸引外商直接投资为突破口迅速融入全球生产网络。在此过程中,中国的制造业部门高速成长,并已赢得“世界工厂”的声誉。然而,也有人指出中国制造业只是数量型增长,发展水平其实并不高。国内虽然已有较多文献评价了中国的分工地位,但研究视角大多停留在传统分工层面,其结论有待商榷。本文基于产品内国际分工的客观背景,从全球价值链视角对中国在新国际分工体系中的竞争力和地位进行综合评判,检验产品内分工对中国制造业的技术升级效应是否存在,并以发展中国家的样本数据和历史经验,探讨如何才能更好地承接国际外包业务,以及更快地提升全球价值链位置。
通过贸易数据的深入分析,研究发现,中国在产品内分工体系中的专业化层次较低,主要扮演“加工车间”的角色,尽管高技术产业和高技术产品发展迅猛,但竞争力集中在低附加值的劳动密集型生产阶段,从中获取的分工利益极为有限,总体而言,目前处于新国际分工体系的中低端位置。但纵向比较结果显示,中国在很短的时间内实现了产业升级和技术升级的阶段性目标,比较优势逐渐向全球价值链的中高端延伸,国际分工地位也有了明显改善。中国在融入东亚生产网络的过程中,逐渐崛起为东亚制造中心,削弱了日本和“亚洲四小龙”的网络影响力。同时,中国崛起的竞争效应推动网络成员乃至网络整体的专业化层次提升。借助中国在产品内分工各流程的衔接合作,东亚生产网络的内部联系进一步强化。此外,中国演进为东亚出口平台,使得东亚生产网络对世界市场出口的“双边贸易”转变为经由中国的“三角贸易”模式。
以中国的制造业部门作为研究对象,基于1995-2006年间的面板数据集,本文对产品内国际分工与生产率之间的关系进行实证分析,以检验这种新型国际分工模式是否产生了技术升级效应。研究发现,产品内国际分工从进口和出口两方面共同促进了生产率增长,但出口的贡献更大。分工的技术升级效应在近几年才开始显现且主要来源于零部件贸易。中间品出口通过熟练劳动力偏向的劳动要素配置效应以及其他途径间接推动技术进步,而中间品进口对于技术升级的作用则更多地依赖于投入引导效应和技术溢出效应。
利用20个发达国家(地区)和40个发展中国家的双边中间品贸易数据,对发展中国家承接国际外包的决定因素进行实证检验。截面样本和面板样本的计量结果显示,发展中国家的劳动成本和交易成本对发包方的区位选择都具有显著的影响,但低技术含量的外包业务更偏好选择低工资国家以节约劳动成本,而高技术含量的外包业务则更偏好选择高质量服务的国家以节约交易成本。中国在劳动成本和交易成本的大部分指标上都具有一定的比较优势,今后要更多地依靠服务和制度条件的改善,以抵消劳动成本上升的不利影响。40个发展中国家的经验数据表明,产品内国际分工对于价值链提升具有显著的推动作用,但主要来源于高层次分工合作的贡献,并且这一作用的发挥要以人力资本、服务质量以及制度环境等支持性条件的满足为前提。中国在参与产品内国际分工的过程中,价值链位置得到较大幅度的提升,交通服务质量的改进和偏向于高层次分工的政策引导起到关键作用,在人力资本和制度环境上还有进一步改善的潜力。
最后,对全文的研究结论进行了归纳总结,并在深入剖析中国参与产品内国际分工现存问题的基础上,从全球价值链角度对制造业升级问题做出了深刻的思考,并就如何在全球生产网络中发展中国制造业的问题提出了几点建议。
Intra-product international specialization emerged in 1950's and gradually dominated the form of international production and trade. This new pattern of international division of labor brings the specialization based on the comparative advantages among countries from the product itself into its inner working procedures and processes. Global production networks strengthen the relationship among countries and generate essential effects on the development of members.
Being a latecomer in the new system of international division of labor, China rapidly joined into global production networks through developing processing trade and attractiving foreign direct investment. China's industrial sectors have become the world factory, but some people suggest that China's manufacturing remains to be low level in fact. In the context of intra-product international specialization, this paper evaluated China's competitiveness and status from the perspective of global value chain. Then we discuss how to accept international outsourcing and upgrade according to the data and experience of developing countries.
Based on the analysis of trade data, the findings reveal that China mainly plays the actor of processing workshop in the intra-product specialization. The exports of high-tech industries and high-tech products increase rapidly, but China's competitiveness in such area focuses on the labor-intensive production stages of low value-added. However, China has achieved the staggered goals of industry upgrading and technology upgrading. China's position in the international division of labor has also been improved on. In the course of falling into East Asian production networks, China is emerging into the production center of East Asia. Meanwhile, the competition effects of China's emergence have upgraded the specialization stages of members and the whole networks. Through China's cooperation, the internal relationships of East Asian production networks have become closer. Moreover, China evolves into the export platform of East Asia, which makes the pattern of East Asian production networks exporting to world market change from "bilateral trade" into "triangular trade".
Base on a panel dataset over the period 1995-2006, we carry out an empirical investigation on the relationship between international intra-product specialization and productivity in Chinese manufacturing. The findings suggest that international intra-product specialization has promoted productivity growth from the aspects of imports and exports, while exports have made greater contribution to such growth. The effects of international intra-product specialization on technological upgrading appear in recent years and mainly from trade in parts and components. Export of intermediates drives technological progress from the effect of skilled-biased labor factor distribution. But import of intermediates accelerates technological upgrading depending on the effects of inputs channel and technology spillover.
This paper carried out an empirical investigation to test the determinants of developing countries receiving international outsourcing. The findings reveal that both labor cost and transaction cost in developing countries have significant impacts on the firms' location choice. Outsourcing with low technology contents is more willing to choose a country with low wage to save labor cost, but one with high technology contents is more likely choose a country with better quality of service to save transaction cost. China has comparative advantage in most indicators of labor cost and transaction cost. Based on an empirical study on forty developing countries, we find that intra-product specialization has a significant positive effect on upgrading value chain. However, such effect is mainly from the contributions of high-level cooperation and needs to meet some preconditions such as human capital, service and institution. In the course of joining into the intra-product specialization, China has upgraded value chain obviously. Improvements on transport services and the policies biased on high-level specialization play the important roles.
Finanlly, author sums up several main findings in the whole thesis. Based on in-depth analyzing the problems about China's joining into intra-product international specialization, this paper thinks about the strategies on industrial upgrading and propose some suggestion on how to develop China's manufacturing in global production networks.
引文
3 徐康宁、陈健(2007):“国际生产网络与新国际分工”,《国际经济评论》第6期。
10 参见:张纪,2008,产品内国际分工的技术扩散效应——基于中国1980～2005年时间序列数据的实证分析[J],世界经济研究(1)。
11 本部分内容参考池仁勇,邵小芬,2006,全球价值链治理、驱动力和创新理论探析[J],外国经济与管理(3)。
12 本部分内容参考徐康宁、陈健(2007),“国际生产网络与新国际分工”,《国际经济评论》,2007年第6期。
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[59]Zeddies G.,2007,"Determinants of international fragmentation of production in the European Union[R]",IWH Discussion Paper.
[1]北京大学中国经济研究中心课题组,2005,垂直专门化、产业内贸易与中美贸易关系[R],北京大学中国经济研究中心工作论文。
[2]蔡小勇,2006,专业化、产品内贸易与中国经济发展[D],华中科技大学。
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[5]程新章,2006,全球价值链治理模式——模块生产网络研究[J],科技进步与对策(5)。
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[7]杜晓君,2005,跨国公司国际生产模式:内部化、外部化与趋势[J],国际贸易问题(8)。
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[9]高越,2004,垂直专业化分工:分工基础、分工利益与中国的实践[D],天津财经学院。
[10]高越,高峰,2006,产品内贸易与外商直接投资的关系——理论模型与基于中国数据的经验分析[J],数量经济技术经济研究(8)。
[11]顾强,2007,促进我国地方产业集群在全球价值链中加速升级[J],宏观经济研究(4)。
[12]国务院发展研究中心课题组,2003,加工贸易:全球化背景下工业化的新道路总报告[J],经济研究参考(11)。
[13]海闻,赵达,2007,国际生产与贸易格局的新变化[J],国际经济评论(1)。
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[15]胡昭玲,2007,国际垂直专业化与贸易理论的相关拓展[J],经济评论(2)。
[16]黄永明,2006,全球价值链视角下中国纺织服装企业的升级路径选择[J],中国工业经济(5)。
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[20]李晓华,2005,产业组织的垂直解体与网络化[J],中国工业经济(7)。
[21]卢锋,2004,产品内分工:一个分析框架[R],北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿。
[22]卢锋,2004,产品内分工[J],经济学季刊(1)。
[23]吕文栋,张辉,2005,全球价值链下的地方产业集群战略研究[J],中国软科学(2)。
[24]潘悦,2002,在全球化产业链条中加速升级换代——我国加工贸易的产业升级状况分析[J],中国工业经济(6)。
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[26]任志成,马志娟,2004,论当代国际分工格局中发展中国家分工利益[J],国际贸易问题(6)。
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[29]孙文远,2006,产品内分工刍议[J],国际贸易问题(6)。
[30]谭力文、马海燕,2006,全球外包下的中国企业价值链重构[J],武汉大学学报(3)。
[31]田文、刘厚俊,2006,产品内分工下西方贸易理论的新发展[J],经济学动态(5)。
[32]汪斌、邓艳梅,2003,中日贸易中工业制品比较优势及国际分工类型[J],世界经济(4)。
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10 参见:张纪,2008,产品内国际分工的技术扩散效应——基于中国1980～2005年时间序列数据的实证分析[J],世界经济研究(1)。
11 本部分内容参考池仁勇,邵小芬,2006,全球价值链治理、驱动力和创新理论探析[J],外国经济与管理(3)。
12 本部分内容参考徐康宁、陈健(2007),“国际生产网络与新国际分工”,《国际经济评论》,2007年第6期。
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[1]北京大学中国经济研究中心课题组,2005,垂直专门化、产业内贸易与中美贸易关系[R],北京大学中国经济研究中心工作论文。
[2]蔡小勇,2006,专业化、产品内贸易与中国经济发展[D],华中科技大学。
[3]曹和平,2005,产能与价值,我们选择谁?[J],电子外贸(1)。
[4]陈建军,2002,中国现阶段的产业区域转移及其动力机制[J],中国工业经济(8)。
[5]程新章,2006,全球价值链治理模式——模块生产网络研究[J],科技进步与对策(5)。
[6]池仁勇,邵小芬,2006,全球价值链治理、驱动力和创新理论探析[J],外国经济与管理 (3)。
[7]杜晓君,2005,跨国公司国际生产模式:内部化、外部化与趋势[J],国际贸易问题(8)。
[8]高峰,2008,基于全球价值链视角完善我国企业创新机制[J],企业经济(6)。
[9]高越,2004,垂直专业化分工:分工基础、分工利益与中国的实践[D],天津财经学院。
[10]高越,高峰,2006,产品内贸易与外商直接投资的关系——理论模型与基于中国数据的经验分析[J],数量经济技术经济研究(8)。
[11]顾强,2007,促进我国地方产业集群在全球价值链中加速升级[J],宏观经济研究(4)。
[12]国务院发展研究中心课题组,2003,加工贸易:全球化背景下工业化的新道路总报告[J],经济研究参考(11)。
[13]海闻,赵达,2007,国际生产与贸易格局的新变化[J],国际经济评论(1)。
[14]胡昭玲,2007,产品内国际分工对中国工业生产率的影响分析[J],中国工业经济(6)。
[15]胡昭玲,2007,国际垂直专业化与贸易理论的相关拓展[J],经济评论(2)。
[16]黄永明,2006,全球价值链视角下中国纺织服装企业的升级路径选择[J],中国工业经济(5)。
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[19]李东红,2006,跨国公司知识转移及其对我国的启示[J],国际经济合作(3)。
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[24]潘悦,2002,在全球化产业链条中加速升级换代——我国加工贸易的产业升级状况分析[J],中国工业经济(6)。
[25]卜国琴,2007,全球生产网络与中国产业升级研究[D],暨南大学。.
[26]任志成,马志娟,2004,论当代国际分工格局中发展中国家分工利益[J],国际贸易问题(6)。
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[30]谭力文、马海燕,2006,全球外包下的中国企业价值链重构[J],武汉大学学报(3)。
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