环境规制与FDI非均衡增长研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，随着经济全球化进程的进一步加快，我国外商直接投资获得了长足的发展，并成为推动中国经济高速增长的一个重要引擎。然而，大量外资的涌入也带来了一系列的环境问题。为了实现利润最大化，外资企业通过产业转移和外部成本内部化的方式增强国际竞争力，并将污染密集型产业转移至环境规制相对较松的发展中国家。而在经济发展和政治晋升的双重压力下，国内的地方政府也不惜以牺牲环境为代价，大力引进一些低技术水平、高污染高能耗的外资企业，使得中国本已脆弱的生态环境更趋恶化。近几年来基于可持续发展理念，政府投入了大量的资金用于污染治理，制定了一系列政策法规加强环境保护监管。但与发达国家相比，由于我国的环境保护意识不强、投入不足、执法力度不够，因而环境规制水平相对较低，落实力度也存在较大的差异，环境规制与FDI选址的关系引起了诸多学者的广泛关注。基于FDI非均衡增长的事实特征，本文分别从FDI的地区分布、行业结构、投资方式、来源地结构、技术水平提升五个角度全面分析了环境规制对FDI非均衡增长的影响，并试图回答以下几个问题：我国的环境规制水平对FDI选址是否存在显著的影响？如果存在，具体的影响渠道或影响机制是什么？环境规制是否造成了FDI在我国地区、行业、来源地、利用外资方式、技术进步等方面的非均衡增长？严格的环境规制是否会刺激外资企业通过技术创新来弥补遵循成本呢？针对以上问题，本文进行了深入探讨。
由于我国各省之间尤其是相邻各省之间的市场及贸易联系非常紧密，因此本文在省级面板模型中纳入空间第三方效应，着重考察本地区及周边地区环境规制水平的变化是如何通过影响外资企业的生产成本及其创新能力来影响FDI在我国的区位分布？研究结果显示：环境规制对FDI区域分布的影响呈U型，东部地区的环境规制水平高于中西部地区，同时，东部地区的环境规制拐点也远高于中西部地区。而周边地区环境规制对FDI的影响呈倒U型，东中西部周边地区倒U型曲线的拐点都远低于当地U型曲线的影响，各地环境规制水平基本处于倒U型曲线的右边。环境规制及其它传统影响因素对FDI区域分布的影响均存在空间第三方效应，且这种效应在东中西部地区表现出不同的特征，这更加全面的解释了影响我国FDI区域分布的因素。
关于环境规制与FDI产业非均衡增长问题，本文通过建立一个三要素、两产品的理论模型，将环境作为一种新型要素投入企业生产经营活动，比较分析环境规制引起的要素边际成本上升对外资行业选择的影响效应。在此基础上，利用2001-2010年我国35个制造业细分行业的面板数据实证检验了环境规制水平对FDI行业进入的影响。研究结果表明：环境规制与FDI行业分布之间呈U型曲线关系，目前绝大部分行业已跨越U型曲线拐点，环境规制所带来的先动优势和创新补偿效应占主导地位；行业内工资水平的提高、产品差异化程度的加强、技术水平的提升和利润率的增加均对FDI具有正向促进作用，但这一影响在清洁型行业和污染型行业中存在差异；滞后一期的FDI与其当期之间存在显著的正向关系，前一期的FDI存量会通过示范效应和推动效应引起外商在该行业投资的增加，FDI行业进入具有明显的路径依赖特征。
鉴于环境规制下绿地投资、跨国并购两种不同投资方式面临的风险及预期收益不同，因而也将影响到外资企业的生产决策。为此，本文通过建立外资投资选择模型对非均衡增长问题进行研究，并在此基础上进一步构建计量模型，实证检验了环境规制对不同投资方式下FDI的影响。理论及实证结果显示，政府的环境规制水平越高，在等额投资条件下使用绿地投资的外资预期收入将小于跨国并购的预期收入；而绿地投资和跨国并购下的FDI与环境规制之间仍存在U型曲线关系，政府的环境规制行为必须与其它经济政策相配合才能更好地使我国的外资投资结构趋于合理，并且在环境规制严格的条件下，基础设施建设成本的提高确实会增加绿地投资的风险。
考虑到目前我国吸引的FDI具有总量大、增速快，外资来源逐渐转向多元化等特点，而不同来源地的FDI对环境规制政策的敏感程度也存在一定的差异。为此，本文考察了相对环境规制力度变化对不同来源地FDI的影响，实证结果显示我国环境规制的加强会在投资初期提高污染型外资的成本和降低其收益，进而导致FDI的增速放缓，而随着环境规制继续加强，非污染型外资逐渐被吸引。同时投资国与中国之间贸易量越大、地理距离越短、政治往来时间越长、对我国周边国家投资越多、该国货币升值越快，其对华投资的增长也越快。而分样本实证研究则显示，环境规制所引致的发展中国家对华投资变动远大于发达国家，发展中国家外资对环境规制的敏感度要高于发达国家。相较于发展中国家，发达国家FDI的集聚效应更明显，同时该国经济规模与离华远近对其对外投资的限制较小。
已有研究表明，严格的环境规制将提高外资企业的进入壁垒，并影响到外资企业进驻的行业分布及市场集中度等，而外资企业也将对外投资作为获取知识溢出的关键渠道，那么环境规制是否通过影响FDI的进入来提高外资企业的技术进步呢？本文运用制造业35个细分行业的面板数据，将环境规制与FDI的创新活动指标纳入计量模型来实证检验环境规制对FDI技术进步的影响，并重点考察了环境规制如何通过技术引进、自主创新及逆向技术外溢等渠道间接促进FDI技术水平的提升。研究结果表明：外资企业全要素生产率的增长主要来源于技术进步增长，而环境规制通过强化FDI的技术转移或创新激励等间接渠道提高自身技术水平，且不同行业的技术属性使得环境规制效应在研发投入高、行业进入程度高、劳动密集型行业中更为显著，其中高研发投入的FDI明显促进了投入型和效率型技术进步，严格的环境规制成为外资企业积极引入母国绿色生产技术与加强自主研发的重要推动力。FDI的逆向技术外溢效应显著为负，并且这种负向效应在FDI渗透较高、资本投入较低的行业更为突出。最后，本文在上述研究结论的基础上提出了相关的政策建议。
With the development of reform and opening-up policy as well as entry intoWTO, the absolute quantity of absorbing foreign direct investment(FDI) in ourcountry has increased successionally in recent years.However, a large influx offoreign capital has also brought a series of environmental problems. In order tomaximize profits, the foreign-funded enterprises enhance internationalcompetitiveness by transferring pollution-intensive industries into developingcountries with relatively loose environmental regulation. Under the dual pressures ofeconomic development and political advancement, local governments introduce somelow-skilled, high-pollution foreign enterprises at the cost of the environment, whichaggravated the fragile ecological environment. In recent years, the government s haveinvested a lot of money for pollution control based on the concept of sustainabledevelopment, and have formulated a series of policies to strengthen environmentalregulation. However, compared with developed countries, China's environmentalprotection awareness is not strong, and its law enforcement of environmentalprotection is inadequate. All these lead to lower environmental regulation, so therelationship between environmental regulation and FDI location has caused a lot ofwide attention. Based on the fact that FDI grows unbalanced, this articlecomprehensively analyses the influence of environmental regulation on unbalancedgrowth of FDI. The study is mainly from five points which include the regionaldistribution of FDI, industry structure, investment ways, source structure and theimprovement of technology. And this paper attempts to answer the following issues:does the level of environmental regulation have significant impact on FDI location? Ifpresent, what are specific channels of influence or impact mechanism? Doesenvironmental regulation cause unbalanced growth of FDI in regions, industries,sources, the use of foreign capital and technological progress? Will stringentenvironmental regulation stimulate foreign-funded enterprises to make up forcompliance costs through technological innovation? To answer above questions, thispaper makes deep discussions.
Since there are close market and trade linkages between Chinese provinces,especially between adjacent provinces, this paper builds a spatial econometric modelincluding third-party effects to study how local and circumjacent environmental regulation influent the inflow of FDI by affecting FDI' production cost and innovationcapacity.The results show that the environmental regulation has an U sharp influenceon FDI inflows,and the inflection point in eastern areas is higher than central andwestern areas.At present, the level of environmental regulation in central and westernareas have already reached the right part of the U curve.Besides, circumjacentenvironmental regulation has an inverse U curve influence on FDI inflows,but itsinflection point is much lower than that in local areas.There is an obvious spatialthird-party effects on FDI inflows,and these effects have different characteristics withdifferent areas,which more comprehensively explain the factors that affect regionaldistribution of FDI in China.
And when researching the relationship between environmental regulation andunbalanced growth of FDI in different sectors,this paper attempts to build atheoretical model including three factors and two products, and makes environment asa new factor to analyse effects of marginal costs rise caused by environmentalregulation on industry choice of FDI.On this basis,we use35manufacturing-sectorspanel data in China to empirically research the influence of environmental regulationon FDI inflows.The results show that environmental regulation has an U sharpinfluence on industry choice of FDI.So far, most industries have stridden across theinflection point of the U curve, and the first-mover advantage and innovationcompensation effect brought by environmental regulation have taken the lead. Besides,the inflows of FDI in manufacturing sectors is positively affected by the rise of wagelevel,products diversity,technology level as well as profit margin,but their affectionhas slight differences between clean and polluting industries.Finally, there is asignificant correlation between the lagged and current FDI inflows.The stock of FDIin previous period will increase foreign investments by demonstration effects andpush effects, and it also has an obvious characteristic of path-dependent.
Considering greenfield investment and Cross-border Mergers&Acquisitionsface different risks and expected return under environmental regulation,f oreignenterprises will make different production decisions.Therefore,in this paper,weattempt to study their unbalanced growth by establishing a foreign investment modelunder semi-closed conditions,and empirically estimate the effects of environmentalregulation on FDI under the different investment mode.The theoretical and empiricalresults show that,if the level of government environmental regulation is higher,theexpected return by greenfield investment is less than Cross-border Mergers&Acquisitions under the equal investment conditions.In addition, there is a U-shaped curve relationship between environmental regulation and FDI,so the government'senvironmental regulatory action must be compatible with other economic policies inorder to make the structure of foreign investment in China more reasonable.Under theconditions of stringent environmental regulation, improvement of infrastructure costdoes increase the risk of greenfield investment.
At present,foreign investment in China possess the characteristic of largenumbers and fast growth and wide source.FDI from different sources has differentsensitivity to environment regulations, so we also examine the influences ofenvironmental regulation on different sources of FDI.The empirical results showthat the strengthening of environmental regulation in initial stage of pollutinginvestment increases investors’ costs and reduces their income, which leads to aslowing pace of FDI growth. And as environmental regulation continuing to bestrengthened, the non-polluting foreign investment is gradually attracted. Thecountries whose investment in China grow faster have some unique characteristics,such as greater volume of trade with China, shorter geographical distance, longerpolitical dealings, more investment in China’s neighboring countries and fasterappreciation of nation currency. In addition, when the sample divided into two groups,the empirical estimation shows that FDI from developing countries caused byenvironmental regulation is much larger than from developed countries, and thesensitivity to environmental regulation of developing countries’ investment is higherthan that of developed countries. Compared to developing countries, the concentrationeffect of developed countries’ FDI is more pronounced, while the scale of thecountry’s economy and its distance from China less restricted its foreign investment.
Some research results have showed that stringent environmental regulation willincrease the barriers to the entry of foreign-funded enterprises,and also affect thedistribution of foreign-funded enterprises stationed in the industry and marketconcentration.FDI takes overseas investment as a key channel for access to knowledgespillover,so will stringent regulation improve the technological advances offoreign-funded enterprises by affecting the entry of FDI?Based on the panel data of35manufacturing sectors in China during2001-2010,this paper decomposes technologyprogress of FDI according to Malmquist index, and incorporates environmentalregulation and FDI innovation into econometric model to empirically test the effectsof environmental regulation on FDI technology progress,mainly studying howenvironmental regulation indirectly promotes FDI technology progress by technologyintroduction,innovation and reverse technology spillover.The results show that the increase of total factor productivity mainly comes from technology progress.Environmental regulation improves its technology progress by some indirect channelssuch as intensifying technology transfer of FDI or innovation incentive.But differenttechnique attributes make regulation effects more obvious in higher R&D,Higherconcentration and Labour-intensive industries.Among these,FDI in higher R&Dobviously promotes input-oriented and efficiency-oriented technology progress.Thereverse technology spillover effect of FDI is significantly negative,and this negativeeffect is more obvious in higher concentration and lower capital-inputindustries.Finally,this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations onthe basis of the conclusions of this study.
由于我国各省之间尤其是相邻各省之间的市场及贸易联系非常紧密，因此本文在省级面板模型中纳入空间第三方效应，着重考察本地区及周边地区环境规制水平的变化是如何通过影响外资企业的生产成本及其创新能力来影响FDI在我国的区位分布？研究结果显示：环境规制对FDI区域分布的影响呈U型，东部地区的环境规制水平高于中西部地区，同时，东部地区的环境规制拐点也远高于中西部地区。而周边地区环境规制对FDI的影响呈倒U型，东中西部周边地区倒U型曲线的拐点都远低于当地U型曲线的影响，各地环境规制水平基本处于倒U型曲线的右边。环境规制及其它传统影响因素对FDI区域分布的影响均存在空间第三方效应，且这种效应在东中西部地区表现出不同的特征，这更加全面的解释了影响我国FDI区域分布的因素。
关于环境规制与FDI产业非均衡增长问题，本文通过建立一个三要素、两产品的理论模型，将环境作为一种新型要素投入企业生产经营活动，比较分析环境规制引起的要素边际成本上升对外资行业选择的影响效应。在此基础上，利用2001-2010年我国35个制造业细分行业的面板数据实证检验了环境规制水平对FDI行业进入的影响。研究结果表明：环境规制与FDI行业分布之间呈U型曲线关系，目前绝大部分行业已跨越U型曲线拐点，环境规制所带来的先动优势和创新补偿效应占主导地位；行业内工资水平的提高、产品差异化程度的加强、技术水平的提升和利润率的增加均对FDI具有正向促进作用，但这一影响在清洁型行业和污染型行业中存在差异；滞后一期的FDI与其当期之间存在显著的正向关系，前一期的FDI存量会通过示范效应和推动效应引起外商在该行业投资的增加，FDI行业进入具有明显的路径依赖特征。
鉴于环境规制下绿地投资、跨国并购两种不同投资方式面临的风险及预期收益不同，因而也将影响到外资企业的生产决策。为此，本文通过建立外资投资选择模型对非均衡增长问题进行研究，并在此基础上进一步构建计量模型，实证检验了环境规制对不同投资方式下FDI的影响。理论及实证结果显示，政府的环境规制水平越高，在等额投资条件下使用绿地投资的外资预期收入将小于跨国并购的预期收入；而绿地投资和跨国并购下的FDI与环境规制之间仍存在U型曲线关系，政府的环境规制行为必须与其它经济政策相配合才能更好地使我国的外资投资结构趋于合理，并且在环境规制严格的条件下，基础设施建设成本的提高确实会增加绿地投资的风险。
考虑到目前我国吸引的FDI具有总量大、增速快，外资来源逐渐转向多元化等特点，而不同来源地的FDI对环境规制政策的敏感程度也存在一定的差异。为此，本文考察了相对环境规制力度变化对不同来源地FDI的影响，实证结果显示我国环境规制的加强会在投资初期提高污染型外资的成本和降低其收益，进而导致FDI的增速放缓，而随着环境规制继续加强，非污染型外资逐渐被吸引。同时投资国与中国之间贸易量越大、地理距离越短、政治往来时间越长、对我国周边国家投资越多、该国货币升值越快，其对华投资的增长也越快。而分样本实证研究则显示，环境规制所引致的发展中国家对华投资变动远大于发达国家，发展中国家外资对环境规制的敏感度要高于发达国家。相较于发展中国家，发达国家FDI的集聚效应更明显，同时该国经济规模与离华远近对其对外投资的限制较小。
已有研究表明，严格的环境规制将提高外资企业的进入壁垒，并影响到外资企业进驻的行业分布及市场集中度等，而外资企业也将对外投资作为获取知识溢出的关键渠道，那么环境规制是否通过影响FDI的进入来提高外资企业的技术进步呢？本文运用制造业35个细分行业的面板数据，将环境规制与FDI的创新活动指标纳入计量模型来实证检验环境规制对FDI技术进步的影响，并重点考察了环境规制如何通过技术引进、自主创新及逆向技术外溢等渠道间接促进FDI技术水平的提升。研究结果表明：外资企业全要素生产率的增长主要来源于技术进步增长，而环境规制通过强化FDI的技术转移或创新激励等间接渠道提高自身技术水平，且不同行业的技术属性使得环境规制效应在研发投入高、行业进入程度高、劳动密集型行业中更为显著，其中高研发投入的FDI明显促进了投入型和效率型技术进步，严格的环境规制成为外资企业积极引入母国绿色生产技术与加强自主研发的重要推动力。FDI的逆向技术外溢效应显著为负，并且这种负向效应在FDI渗透较高、资本投入较低的行业更为突出。最后，本文在上述研究结论的基础上提出了相关的政策建议。
With the development of reform and opening-up policy as well as entry intoWTO, the absolute quantity of absorbing foreign direct investment(FDI) in ourcountry has increased successionally in recent years.However, a large influx offoreign capital has also brought a series of environmental problems. In order tomaximize profits, the foreign-funded enterprises enhance internationalcompetitiveness by transferring pollution-intensive industries into developingcountries with relatively loose environmental regulation. Under the dual pressures ofeconomic development and political advancement, local governments introduce somelow-skilled, high-pollution foreign enterprises at the cost of the environment, whichaggravated the fragile ecological environment. In recent years, the government s haveinvested a lot of money for pollution control based on the concept of sustainabledevelopment, and have formulated a series of policies to strengthen environmentalregulation. However, compared with developed countries, China's environmentalprotection awareness is not strong, and its law enforcement of environmentalprotection is inadequate. All these lead to lower environmental regulation, so therelationship between environmental regulation and FDI location has caused a lot ofwide attention. Based on the fact that FDI grows unbalanced, this articlecomprehensively analyses the influence of environmental regulation on unbalancedgrowth of FDI. The study is mainly from five points which include the regionaldistribution of FDI, industry structure, investment ways, source structure and theimprovement of technology. And this paper attempts to answer the following issues:does the level of environmental regulation have significant impact on FDI location? Ifpresent, what are specific channels of influence or impact mechanism? Doesenvironmental regulation cause unbalanced growth of FDI in regions, industries,sources, the use of foreign capital and technological progress? Will stringentenvironmental regulation stimulate foreign-funded enterprises to make up forcompliance costs through technological innovation? To answer above questions, thispaper makes deep discussions.
Since there are close market and trade linkages between Chinese provinces,especially between adjacent provinces, this paper builds a spatial econometric modelincluding third-party effects to study how local and circumjacent environmental regulation influent the inflow of FDI by affecting FDI' production cost and innovationcapacity.The results show that the environmental regulation has an U sharp influenceon FDI inflows,and the inflection point in eastern areas is higher than central andwestern areas.At present, the level of environmental regulation in central and westernareas have already reached the right part of the U curve.Besides, circumjacentenvironmental regulation has an inverse U curve influence on FDI inflows,but itsinflection point is much lower than that in local areas.There is an obvious spatialthird-party effects on FDI inflows,and these effects have different characteristics withdifferent areas,which more comprehensively explain the factors that affect regionaldistribution of FDI in China.
And when researching the relationship between environmental regulation andunbalanced growth of FDI in different sectors,this paper attempts to build atheoretical model including three factors and two products, and makes environment asa new factor to analyse effects of marginal costs rise caused by environmentalregulation on industry choice of FDI.On this basis,we use35manufacturing-sectorspanel data in China to empirically research the influence of environmental regulationon FDI inflows.The results show that environmental regulation has an U sharpinfluence on industry choice of FDI.So far, most industries have stridden across theinflection point of the U curve, and the first-mover advantage and innovationcompensation effect brought by environmental regulation have taken the lead. Besides,the inflows of FDI in manufacturing sectors is positively affected by the rise of wagelevel,products diversity,technology level as well as profit margin,but their affectionhas slight differences between clean and polluting industries.Finally, there is asignificant correlation between the lagged and current FDI inflows.The stock of FDIin previous period will increase foreign investments by demonstration effects andpush effects, and it also has an obvious characteristic of path-dependent.
Considering greenfield investment and Cross-border Mergers&Acquisitionsface different risks and expected return under environmental regulation,f oreignenterprises will make different production decisions.Therefore,in this paper,weattempt to study their unbalanced growth by establishing a foreign investment modelunder semi-closed conditions,and empirically estimate the effects of environmentalregulation on FDI under the different investment mode.The theoretical and empiricalresults show that,if the level of government environmental regulation is higher,theexpected return by greenfield investment is less than Cross-border Mergers&Acquisitions under the equal investment conditions.In addition, there is a U-shaped curve relationship between environmental regulation and FDI,so the government'senvironmental regulatory action must be compatible with other economic policies inorder to make the structure of foreign investment in China more reasonable.Under theconditions of stringent environmental regulation, improvement of infrastructure costdoes increase the risk of greenfield investment.
At present,foreign investment in China possess the characteristic of largenumbers and fast growth and wide source.FDI from different sources has differentsensitivity to environment regulations, so we also examine the influences ofenvironmental regulation on different sources of FDI.The empirical results showthat the strengthening of environmental regulation in initial stage of pollutinginvestment increases investors’ costs and reduces their income, which leads to aslowing pace of FDI growth. And as environmental regulation continuing to bestrengthened, the non-polluting foreign investment is gradually attracted. Thecountries whose investment in China grow faster have some unique characteristics,such as greater volume of trade with China, shorter geographical distance, longerpolitical dealings, more investment in China’s neighboring countries and fasterappreciation of nation currency. In addition, when the sample divided into two groups,the empirical estimation shows that FDI from developing countries caused byenvironmental regulation is much larger than from developed countries, and thesensitivity to environmental regulation of developing countries’ investment is higherthan that of developed countries. Compared to developing countries, the concentrationeffect of developed countries’ FDI is more pronounced, while the scale of thecountry’s economy and its distance from China less restricted its foreign investment.
Some research results have showed that stringent environmental regulation willincrease the barriers to the entry of foreign-funded enterprises,and also affect thedistribution of foreign-funded enterprises stationed in the industry and marketconcentration.FDI takes overseas investment as a key channel for access to knowledgespillover,so will stringent regulation improve the technological advances offoreign-funded enterprises by affecting the entry of FDI?Based on the panel data of35manufacturing sectors in China during2001-2010,this paper decomposes technologyprogress of FDI according to Malmquist index, and incorporates environmentalregulation and FDI innovation into econometric model to empirically test the effectsof environmental regulation on FDI technology progress,mainly studying howenvironmental regulation indirectly promotes FDI technology progress by technologyintroduction,innovation and reverse technology spillover.The results show that the increase of total factor productivity mainly comes from technology progress.Environmental regulation improves its technology progress by some indirect channelssuch as intensifying technology transfer of FDI or innovation incentive.But differenttechnique attributes make regulation effects more obvious in higher R&D,Higherconcentration and Labour-intensive industries.Among these,FDI in higher R&Dobviously promotes input-oriented and efficiency-oriented technology progress.Thereverse technology spillover effect of FDI is significantly negative,and this negativeeffect is more obvious in higher concentration and lower capital-inputindustries.Finally,this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations onthe basis of the conclusions of this study.
引文
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