中尺度天气系统的数值模拟和多普勒雷达风场反演研究
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摘要
中尺度数值模式WRF有助于模拟中小尺度天气系统的结构并预测其生消演变,多普勒雷达资料的高时空分辨率能够提供对中小尺度天气系统的实时监测信息,它们二者都有助于深入剖析中小尺度系统的发生发展规律。在临近预报方面,数值预报结果为雷达资料预测系统的移动发展提供了背景信息,同时多普勒雷达的风场可以验证中尺度数值模式结果的正确与否。结合中尺度数值模式WRF和多普勒雷达风场各自的优势进行对比分析,在理论和实践上都具有重要意义。
本文针对单多普勒雷达风场反演的各种方法,对其中的三种方法,即VAP、VPP、SVVP风场反演方法进行了对比,并通过多种模拟风场对其进行检验和分析,并利用暴雪和台风暴雨等强对流天气进行了实例反演和对比分析,发现SVVP无论在均匀风场还是非均匀风场都有较好的适应性。
通过中尺度数值模式对两次台风登陆的模拟以及SVVP方法对台风登陆时刻的雷达风场反演,发现：
1、中尺度数值模式能够较好地模拟出台风登陆过程,及台风暴雨发生发展的物理机制；
2、SVVP方法对台风登陆期间的风场也有较好的反演,不仅可以反演出中尺度的涡旋结构,更加能反应出小尺度的风向、风速的切变；
3、通过对两者对比分析发现WRF对模拟台风的登陆位置时间稍有偏差,但是对于路径及降水量预测有较好的指示作用,SVVP方法反演出的风向、风速大致和WRF相符。
Mesoscale numerical model WRF contributes to simulating the structure of mesoscale weather systems and forecasting their evolution and extinction. The high spatial and temporal resolution of Doppler radar provides real-time monitoring of mesoscale weather systems. Both of them promote deep analysis of the discipline of mesoscale weather systems. Numerical forecast provides background information for the prediction of the development and movement of weather systems using radar data. In turn, the retrieval wind field of Doppler radar can examine the result of Numerical forecast right or not. With the advantages of both mesoscale numerical model WRF and Doppler radar, it is meaningful, in theory and practice, to make a comparison of them.
Since they are variety of methods for single Doppler radar wind retrieval, the paper only compares on one of the three methods-VAP、VPP、SVVP, and makes test and analysis not only on the simulated wind, but also the convective weather such as heavy snow and rainstorm caused by typhoon. It shows that SVVP retrieval method has the best adaptability whether in the uniform wind field or not.
Through the simulation of typhoon landing by mesoscale numerical model and the retrieval of radar wind by SVVP, it shows that:
1、mesoscale numerical model could simulate the process of typhoon landing and the physical mechanism of the rainstorm caused by typhoon successfully;
2、SVVP could make a good retrieval of typhoon, not only on vortex structure, but also on the small-scale shear of direction and speed of wind;
3、By the comparison, it shows that there is a small deviation between the simulated typhoon, by WRF, and the real one at landing time, but WRF is effective on the forecasting of the path and rainfall, and the retrieval wind by SVVP is similar to the simulated wind
本文针对单多普勒雷达风场反演的各种方法,对其中的三种方法,即VAP、VPP、SVVP风场反演方法进行了对比,并通过多种模拟风场对其进行检验和分析,并利用暴雪和台风暴雨等强对流天气进行了实例反演和对比分析,发现SVVP无论在均匀风场还是非均匀风场都有较好的适应性。
通过中尺度数值模式对两次台风登陆的模拟以及SVVP方法对台风登陆时刻的雷达风场反演,发现：
1、中尺度数值模式能够较好地模拟出台风登陆过程,及台风暴雨发生发展的物理机制；
2、SVVP方法对台风登陆期间的风场也有较好的反演,不仅可以反演出中尺度的涡旋结构,更加能反应出小尺度的风向、风速的切变；
3、通过对两者对比分析发现WRF对模拟台风的登陆位置时间稍有偏差,但是对于路径及降水量预测有较好的指示作用,SVVP方法反演出的风向、风速大致和WRF相符。
Mesoscale numerical model WRF contributes to simulating the structure of mesoscale weather systems and forecasting their evolution and extinction. The high spatial and temporal resolution of Doppler radar provides real-time monitoring of mesoscale weather systems. Both of them promote deep analysis of the discipline of mesoscale weather systems. Numerical forecast provides background information for the prediction of the development and movement of weather systems using radar data. In turn, the retrieval wind field of Doppler radar can examine the result of Numerical forecast right or not. With the advantages of both mesoscale numerical model WRF and Doppler radar, it is meaningful, in theory and practice, to make a comparison of them.
Since they are variety of methods for single Doppler radar wind retrieval, the paper only compares on one of the three methods-VAP、VPP、SVVP, and makes test and analysis not only on the simulated wind, but also the convective weather such as heavy snow and rainstorm caused by typhoon. It shows that SVVP retrieval method has the best adaptability whether in the uniform wind field or not.
Through the simulation of typhoon landing by mesoscale numerical model and the retrieval of radar wind by SVVP, it shows that:
1、mesoscale numerical model could simulate the process of typhoon landing and the physical mechanism of the rainstorm caused by typhoon successfully;
2、SVVP could make a good retrieval of typhoon, not only on vortex structure, but also on the small-scale shear of direction and speed of wind;
3、By the comparison, it shows that there is a small deviation between the simulated typhoon, by WRF, and the real one at landing time, but WRF is effective on the forecasting of the path and rainfall, and the retrieval wind by SVVP is similar to the simulated wind
引文
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[1]马玉芬,沈桐立,丁治英,张广兴.台风_桑美_的数值模拟和地形敏感性试验[J].南京气象学院学报.2009,32(2)：277-286
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[5]闵颍,沈桐立,朱伟军,严娟.台风“珍珠”螺旋雨带的数值模拟与诊断分析[J].大气科学学报.2010,33(2)：228-235
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