自由贸易区经济效应研究
摘要
经济全球化和区域经济集团化是当今世界经济发展的两大趋势,在世界贸易组织多边框架下达成合作协议十分困难的情况下,自由贸易区成为世界各个国家开展区域经济合作的主要方式。诚然,一个自由贸易区的建立承载着很多的目的,但是获取积极的经济效应才是自由贸易区成立和存续的持久动力。伴随着自由贸易区实践内容的不断丰富,其内涵逐步由以贸易自由化为主的浅度一体化逐渐向以括投资为主的深度一体化转变。特别是20世纪80年代以来,跨国公司的国际投资在推动区域经济集团化发展中扮演越来越重要的角色。国际直接投资相对其他贸易方式更能反映区域经济发展的水平,直接或是间接地影响其他的经济效应。因此,投资效应最能反映自由贸易区的发展成果。
从学术研究的角度看,针对区域经济一体化贸易效应的理论和实证研究很早就已开展,而且相关的理论体系和研究方法都已经相当成熟。相比之下,区域经济一体化的投资效应的研究显得相对滞后。在方法上,表现为由静态到动态的过渡,表现为是时间节点的切面的一种间断性的连续方法,该方法忽略了其连续不断地运动轨迹,在内容上主要变现为投资创造效应和投资转移效应,只是对于现象的经检描述,没有认清投资效应产生的根源及其影响因素,本文依据国际生产折衷理论和自由贸易区经济效应认为：自由贸易区的建立从根本上改变了成员国的区位优势和投资环境,进而影响跨国公司的收益和成本,跨国公司为了获取更加合理的收益,必然对原来的投资布局和数量进行调整,其结果反映在区域层面上就表现为自由贸易区的投资效应的变动。这也就比较合理的解释自由贸易区投资效应产生的根源以及影响因素。针对自由贸易区存在的投资效应问题以及影响因素来探讨提升投资效应的对策,这无疑使得自由贸易区投资效应得到更好的解释,同时也为该领域的实践方法和研究内容增添了新的篇章。
北美自由贸易区作为典型的南北型自由贸易区先驱,经历了几十年的发展,并取得了巨大的成就,通过分析北美自由贸易区投资效应,一方面验证了本文的理论模型；另一方面为以后进一步研究自由贸易区投资效应积累更多的经验。对发展中国家特别是中国参与与发达国家的合作提供了一定的借鉴经验。
Economic globalization and regional economic integration is the world's two major trends of economic development. Now that it was difficult to come to an agreement under the multilateral framework of the Word Trade Organization, countries were actively exploring the Free Trade Zone, a more efficient form of organization. It was proved that the Free Trade Zone was a good way to improve the regional economic integration and economic development. The establishment of the Free Trade Zone may be in accordance with political or security purpose, but the primary goal it should be obtaining a positive economic effects, regional prosperity and high-speed development. Therefore, researchers turned to focus on the study about the economic effect of the regional economic integration. Since 1980s, international direct investment played more and more important role in promoting the development of international and regional economic integration. But most studies on the investment effects were launched from a trade perspective, they regarded the investment effect as a secondary effect and derived effect. Thus, it was impossible for them to give an appropriate interpretation of the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone.
Countries take part in the corporation in the Free Trade Zone, but it is the TNC who executive the direct international investment. So the changes of countries caused by the establishment of the Free Trade Zone must via the influence on the decisions of the TNC. By changing these factors, in turn affect investment decisions of TNC, and ultimately affect the flow of multinational investment in the region and investment in distribution. According to Deng Ning's international investment theory, we can improve the interpretation of the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone by study the relationship between the TNC's investment decision and countries' status change on Comparative Advantage.
The investment effect of Free Trade Zone will achieved by improving terms of trade and the investment environment, but previous studies neglected the new international direct investment in the region, the uneven distribution among the members caused the dispute. Thus, in order to maintain the stability of the positive investment effect, we should find a good solution to the dispute. Therefore, theoretically analyze the cooperation and conflict of interest under the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone will be practical significance.
After several decades of development, NAFTA, as the pioneer of north-south-type Free Trade Zone, has made enormous achievements. Analyzing the overall investment effect of the NAFTA and the investment effect of the member countries will accumulate more experience.
从学术研究的角度看,针对区域经济一体化贸易效应的理论和实证研究很早就已开展,而且相关的理论体系和研究方法都已经相当成熟。相比之下,区域经济一体化的投资效应的研究显得相对滞后。在方法上,表现为由静态到动态的过渡,表现为是时间节点的切面的一种间断性的连续方法,该方法忽略了其连续不断地运动轨迹,在内容上主要变现为投资创造效应和投资转移效应,只是对于现象的经检描述,没有认清投资效应产生的根源及其影响因素,本文依据国际生产折衷理论和自由贸易区经济效应认为：自由贸易区的建立从根本上改变了成员国的区位优势和投资环境,进而影响跨国公司的收益和成本,跨国公司为了获取更加合理的收益,必然对原来的投资布局和数量进行调整,其结果反映在区域层面上就表现为自由贸易区的投资效应的变动。这也就比较合理的解释自由贸易区投资效应产生的根源以及影响因素。针对自由贸易区存在的投资效应问题以及影响因素来探讨提升投资效应的对策,这无疑使得自由贸易区投资效应得到更好的解释,同时也为该领域的实践方法和研究内容增添了新的篇章。
北美自由贸易区作为典型的南北型自由贸易区先驱,经历了几十年的发展,并取得了巨大的成就,通过分析北美自由贸易区投资效应,一方面验证了本文的理论模型；另一方面为以后进一步研究自由贸易区投资效应积累更多的经验。对发展中国家特别是中国参与与发达国家的合作提供了一定的借鉴经验。
Economic globalization and regional economic integration is the world's two major trends of economic development. Now that it was difficult to come to an agreement under the multilateral framework of the Word Trade Organization, countries were actively exploring the Free Trade Zone, a more efficient form of organization. It was proved that the Free Trade Zone was a good way to improve the regional economic integration and economic development. The establishment of the Free Trade Zone may be in accordance with political or security purpose, but the primary goal it should be obtaining a positive economic effects, regional prosperity and high-speed development. Therefore, researchers turned to focus on the study about the economic effect of the regional economic integration. Since 1980s, international direct investment played more and more important role in promoting the development of international and regional economic integration. But most studies on the investment effects were launched from a trade perspective, they regarded the investment effect as a secondary effect and derived effect. Thus, it was impossible for them to give an appropriate interpretation of the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone.
Countries take part in the corporation in the Free Trade Zone, but it is the TNC who executive the direct international investment. So the changes of countries caused by the establishment of the Free Trade Zone must via the influence on the decisions of the TNC. By changing these factors, in turn affect investment decisions of TNC, and ultimately affect the flow of multinational investment in the region and investment in distribution. According to Deng Ning's international investment theory, we can improve the interpretation of the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone by study the relationship between the TNC's investment decision and countries' status change on Comparative Advantage.
The investment effect of Free Trade Zone will achieved by improving terms of trade and the investment environment, but previous studies neglected the new international direct investment in the region, the uneven distribution among the members caused the dispute. Thus, in order to maintain the stability of the positive investment effect, we should find a good solution to the dispute. Therefore, theoretically analyze the cooperation and conflict of interest under the investment effect of the Free Trade Zone will be practical significance.
After several decades of development, NAFTA, as the pioneer of north-south-type Free Trade Zone, has made enormous achievements. Analyzing the overall investment effect of the NAFTA and the investment effect of the member countries will accumulate more experience.
引文
[1]钱运春.试论跨国公司和区域一体化的互动关系[J].世界经济研究,2000,5：35.
[2]李力.世界自由贸易区研究[M].北京：北京改革出版社,1995：5.
[3]彼得.罗布森.国际经济一体化经济学[M].上海：上海译文出版社,2006.
[4]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007.
[5]Kindleberger. c. p. European Intergration and the Internationnal Columbia. Jounal of world Business. vol.1. no.1.1996.
[6]Baldwin. RE. Forslid, R. andHaaland,J. Investment Creation and Investment Diversion;simulation Analysis of the single program CEPR Discussion paper no.130.
[7]Buckley. P. J CleggJ. Foranss N.Reilly K T. In creasing the size of the country.Frein direct investment and regionalisation in a globalized
[8]Eaton. J. Tamura,A. Bilateralism and regionalism in Japanese and us trade and foreign direct investment relationship. Journal of Japanese and International Economics.1994,8:475.
[9]何蓉.参与一体化进程中的墨西哥FDI流入与影响因素分析[J].国际商务,2009：74—84.
[10]郎永峰.区域贸易协定、FDI与内生经济增长[J].国际商务研究,2010：48—55.
[11]李皖南.东盟自由贸易区的投资效应分析[J].当代亚太,2004,9：38-43.
[12]樊莹.国际区域一体化的经济效应[J].中国经济出版社,2005：43.
[13]孔淑红,梁明.国际投资学[M].北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社,2001,1.
[14]平新乔.微观经济学十八讲[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2008,10：167-171.
[15]鲁晓东,杨子晖.区域经济一体化的FDI效应：基于FGLS的估计[J].世界经济文汇,2009,4：77.
[16]陈仲常,蒲艳萍.经济学理论与实践[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2001：92.
[17]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入：理论与实证研究[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007,12：59.
[18]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入：理论与实证研究[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007,12：64.
[19]许统生,车玲.经济一体化理论的六个前言问题[J].江西社会科学,1996,02：22.
[20]于国政,崔军.全球地缘经济体[M].吉林：吉林人民出版社,2003,9：150
[21]祖强.江苏外商投资企业效应的实证分析与对策研究[J].世界经济与论坛,2001,4.
[22]冼国明,葛顺奇.跨国公司与东道国外资政策演变[J].南开经济研究,2002,1：4.
[23]马静,郑晶.FDI、区域经济一体化与区域经济增长[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2009,9：88.
[24]冼国明,葛顺奇.跨国公司与东道国外资政策演变[J].南开经济研究,2002,1：4
[25]肖开文.中一东盟自由贸易区的贸易与直接投资效应问题研究[J].东北财经大学,2002,12：51.
[26]李鸿冰,李庆杨.企业跨国经营的几个问题[J].企业世界,2003,1.
[27]陈建人,强冲击.美洲自由贸易区与亚太地区贸易自由化[J].国际贸易,2001,5.
[28]冯冕.自由贸易区发展研究[J]东北师大学报,2009.
[29]饶美娇,杨伟文.从全球区域经济整合看东亚与东北亚自由贸易区的构建[J].开放导报,2005,2.
[30]李平,范跃进.东道国的贸易自由化对国际直接投资流入的影响[J].世界经济,2003(12)：34-39.
[31]逢增辉.国际投资理论的发展和演化.经济评论,2004(1).
[32]鲁明泓.国际投资区位决定因素.南京大学出版社,2000(6)
[33]张宏.蔡彤娟.中国—东盟自由贸易区的投资效应分析[J].当代亚太,2007,(2).
[34]杨胜利,李海青,建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的存在问题及其对策[J].西安财经学院学报,2004.6：60-63.
[35]鄢锐.中国-东盟自由贸易区的FDI效应分析[J].社会科学家,2007,11：146.
[36]郭晓磊.吴国蔚.中国—东盟自由贸易区的驱动机制分析[J].世界经济研究,2007,(1).
[37]巫俊飞.区域经济一体化构架下中国-东盟FDI效应探析[J].商场现代化,2008,8：10.
[38]周瑾瑜.中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立对相互投资的影响分析：[硕士学位论文].上海：复旦大学,2008.
[39]占卫,李皖南.试析中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易和投资效应[J].亚太经济,2004,(6).
[40]东艳.南南型区域经济一体化能否促进FDI流入：中国——东盟自由贸易区引资效应分析[J].南开经济研究,2006(6).
[41]Dunning, J. H.,1981.International Production and the Multinational Enterprises Allen&Unwin, London.
[42]Johnson. H. G.1970. The Efficiency and Welfare Implications of the International Corporation, in Charles P.Kindleberger ed., The International Corporation.
[2]李力.世界自由贸易区研究[M].北京：北京改革出版社,1995：5.
[3]彼得.罗布森.国际经济一体化经济学[M].上海：上海译文出版社,2006.
[4]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007.
[5]Kindleberger. c. p. European Intergration and the Internationnal Columbia. Jounal of world Business. vol.1. no.1.1996.
[6]Baldwin. RE. Forslid, R. andHaaland,J. Investment Creation and Investment Diversion;simulation Analysis of the single program CEPR Discussion paper no.130.
[7]Buckley. P. J CleggJ. Foranss N.Reilly K T. In creasing the size of the country.Frein direct investment and regionalisation in a globalized
[8]Eaton. J. Tamura,A. Bilateralism and regionalism in Japanese and us trade and foreign direct investment relationship. Journal of Japanese and International Economics.1994,8:475.
[9]何蓉.参与一体化进程中的墨西哥FDI流入与影响因素分析[J].国际商务,2009：74—84.
[10]郎永峰.区域贸易协定、FDI与内生经济增长[J].国际商务研究,2010：48—55.
[11]李皖南.东盟自由贸易区的投资效应分析[J].当代亚太,2004,9：38-43.
[12]樊莹.国际区域一体化的经济效应[J].中国经济出版社,2005：43.
[13]孔淑红,梁明.国际投资学[M].北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社,2001,1.
[14]平新乔.微观经济学十八讲[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2008,10：167-171.
[15]鲁晓东,杨子晖.区域经济一体化的FDI效应：基于FGLS的估计[J].世界经济文汇,2009,4：77.
[16]陈仲常,蒲艳萍.经济学理论与实践[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2001：92.
[17]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入：理论与实证研究[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007,12：59.
[18]宣烨.区域经济一体化与FDI流入：理论与实证研究[M].合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007,12：64.
[19]许统生,车玲.经济一体化理论的六个前言问题[J].江西社会科学,1996,02：22.
[20]于国政,崔军.全球地缘经济体[M].吉林：吉林人民出版社,2003,9：150
[21]祖强.江苏外商投资企业效应的实证分析与对策研究[J].世界经济与论坛,2001,4.
[22]冼国明,葛顺奇.跨国公司与东道国外资政策演变[J].南开经济研究,2002,1：4.
[23]马静,郑晶.FDI、区域经济一体化与区域经济增长[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2009,9：88.
[24]冼国明,葛顺奇.跨国公司与东道国外资政策演变[J].南开经济研究,2002,1：4
[25]肖开文.中一东盟自由贸易区的贸易与直接投资效应问题研究[J].东北财经大学,2002,12：51.
[26]李鸿冰,李庆杨.企业跨国经营的几个问题[J].企业世界,2003,1.
[27]陈建人,强冲击.美洲自由贸易区与亚太地区贸易自由化[J].国际贸易,2001,5.
[28]冯冕.自由贸易区发展研究[J]东北师大学报,2009.
[29]饶美娇,杨伟文.从全球区域经济整合看东亚与东北亚自由贸易区的构建[J].开放导报,2005,2.
[30]李平,范跃进.东道国的贸易自由化对国际直接投资流入的影响[J].世界经济,2003(12)：34-39.
[31]逢增辉.国际投资理论的发展和演化.经济评论,2004(1).
[32]鲁明泓.国际投资区位决定因素.南京大学出版社,2000(6)
[33]张宏.蔡彤娟.中国—东盟自由贸易区的投资效应分析[J].当代亚太,2007,(2).
[34]杨胜利,李海青,建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的存在问题及其对策[J].西安财经学院学报,2004.6：60-63.
[35]鄢锐.中国-东盟自由贸易区的FDI效应分析[J].社会科学家,2007,11：146.
[36]郭晓磊.吴国蔚.中国—东盟自由贸易区的驱动机制分析[J].世界经济研究,2007,(1).
[37]巫俊飞.区域经济一体化构架下中国-东盟FDI效应探析[J].商场现代化,2008,8：10.
[38]周瑾瑜.中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立对相互投资的影响分析：[硕士学位论文].上海：复旦大学,2008.
[39]占卫,李皖南.试析中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易和投资效应[J].亚太经济,2004,(6).
[40]东艳.南南型区域经济一体化能否促进FDI流入：中国——东盟自由贸易区引资效应分析[J].南开经济研究,2006(6).
[41]Dunning, J. H.,1981.International Production and the Multinational Enterprises Allen&Unwin, London.
[42]Johnson. H. G.1970. The Efficiency and Welfare Implications of the International Corporation, in Charles P.Kindleberger ed., The International Corporation.