基于技术结构视角的中国—东盟贸易关系及影响因素研究
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摘要
本文在研究中国-东盟双边贸易现状的基础上,利用比较优势指数、贸易互补指数分析了中国与东盟的贸易关系,得出中国与东盟贸易竞争性与互补性并存,且竞争性日益明显。研究表明,随着自贸区的建设,中国-东盟双边贸易增长迅速。在初级产品方面,由于中国与东盟的自然资源禀赋不同,中国与东盟互补性较强;在资源性产品方面,中国与东盟各具优势,互补性和竞争性都很强;低技术制成品中国与东盟竞争性与互补性并存;中国的中等技术产品比较优势较为明显。中国和东盟在以电子电力产品为代表的高技术制成品方面,竞争表现突出。总体说来,中国与东盟贸易竞争性日渐明显。
采取Lall(2000)按技术水平分组的产品分类标准,分析了中国-东盟贸易结构及其变化;利用产业内贸易指数和水平产业内贸易指数,分析了中国-东盟双边贸易的主要贸易产品(电子电力产品)的产业内贸易水平,分析发现,电子电力产品贸易呈现以水平产业内贸易为主的贸易形态。采用整体技术结构、技术结构高度衡量了我国与东盟出口技术水平的变迁,实证表明中国和东盟贸易品的整体技术水平和技术高度都在迅速上升,与日本、韩国、美国等国家的技术差距在不断缩小,双边技术层面的竞争性凸显。
目前影响中国-东盟双边的贸易关系存在有利契机和制约因素。本文综合分析了影响双边贸易关系的因素,阐明资源禀赋的互补性、区域经济一体化、关税的降低等因素均促进了自贸区的建设;得出经济结构竞争性明显、成员间经济发展水平存在较大差异、东盟核心凝聚力不足等存在的问题阻碍了贸易的发展。最后对自贸区的前景进行展望,并针对前文的分析结果提出了相应的政策建议:应该重视差异性和附加值高的产品开发,加快产业结构调整,避免同构性经济竞争,进一步提高贸易品技术水平;东盟国家内部应秉承“求同存异”的发展原则,推进中国-东盟贸易合作。
This paper analyzed the trade relations between China and ASEAN, using comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index based on the trade research of China-ASEAN, and draw the conclusion that China-ASEAN competition and complementarity coexist, moreover, competition has become increasingly evident. The results show that, with the construction of CAFTA, China-ASEAN bilateral trade grew rapidly. In primary products, because of China’s and ASEAN’s different endowments of natural resources, China and ASEAN are highly complementary in trade; in the resource-based products, China and ASEAN have their own advantages, so both of complementarity and competition are strong; in low technology manufactures, competition and complementarity between China and ASEAN co-exist; China's comparative advantage in medium-technology products is more evident. In representatives of electronic power products of high-tech products, China and ASEAN perform competitively. Overall, trade competition between China and ASEAN has become more and more intense.
Using the intra-industry trade index and the horizontal-intra-industry trade index, this paper also analyzed trade level of the major industry trade products(electronic and electrical products)to find that electronic and electrical products were the main products taking the form of horizontal-intra-industry trade. This paper described the dynamic changes of technical level in China-ASEAN’s export by using export technology content (ETC) and export technology content index (ETCI), thus came to the conclusion that ETC and ETCI of both China’s and ASEAN's trade products increased rapidly and narrowed the gap with Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries, and therefore China and ASEAN showed competition in technology.
At present, with the construction of CAFTA, there are still favorable conditions and unfavorable constraints, such as complementarity of resource endowments, regional economic integration, lower tariffs and other factors, which are promoting the construction of CAFTA; clear competitive economic structure, economic development level among the members being quite different, lack of cohesiveness of ASEAN such problems that have hindered the development of trade. Finally, this paper looked into the prospect of CAFTA, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations: both China and ASEAN should pay attention to difference and high value-added product development, speeding up industrial restructuring to avoid competition under the same structure of the economy and enhance technical level of trade commodities on further;ASEAN countries should be adhering to the developing principle of" seek common ground while reserving differences ", promoting China-ASEAN trade cooperation.
采取Lall(2000)按技术水平分组的产品分类标准,分析了中国-东盟贸易结构及其变化;利用产业内贸易指数和水平产业内贸易指数,分析了中国-东盟双边贸易的主要贸易产品(电子电力产品)的产业内贸易水平,分析发现,电子电力产品贸易呈现以水平产业内贸易为主的贸易形态。采用整体技术结构、技术结构高度衡量了我国与东盟出口技术水平的变迁,实证表明中国和东盟贸易品的整体技术水平和技术高度都在迅速上升,与日本、韩国、美国等国家的技术差距在不断缩小,双边技术层面的竞争性凸显。
目前影响中国-东盟双边的贸易关系存在有利契机和制约因素。本文综合分析了影响双边贸易关系的因素,阐明资源禀赋的互补性、区域经济一体化、关税的降低等因素均促进了自贸区的建设;得出经济结构竞争性明显、成员间经济发展水平存在较大差异、东盟核心凝聚力不足等存在的问题阻碍了贸易的发展。最后对自贸区的前景进行展望,并针对前文的分析结果提出了相应的政策建议:应该重视差异性和附加值高的产品开发,加快产业结构调整,避免同构性经济竞争,进一步提高贸易品技术水平;东盟国家内部应秉承“求同存异”的发展原则,推进中国-东盟贸易合作。
This paper analyzed the trade relations between China and ASEAN, using comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index based on the trade research of China-ASEAN, and draw the conclusion that China-ASEAN competition and complementarity coexist, moreover, competition has become increasingly evident. The results show that, with the construction of CAFTA, China-ASEAN bilateral trade grew rapidly. In primary products, because of China’s and ASEAN’s different endowments of natural resources, China and ASEAN are highly complementary in trade; in the resource-based products, China and ASEAN have their own advantages, so both of complementarity and competition are strong; in low technology manufactures, competition and complementarity between China and ASEAN co-exist; China's comparative advantage in medium-technology products is more evident. In representatives of electronic power products of high-tech products, China and ASEAN perform competitively. Overall, trade competition between China and ASEAN has become more and more intense.
Using the intra-industry trade index and the horizontal-intra-industry trade index, this paper also analyzed trade level of the major industry trade products(electronic and electrical products)to find that electronic and electrical products were the main products taking the form of horizontal-intra-industry trade. This paper described the dynamic changes of technical level in China-ASEAN’s export by using export technology content (ETC) and export technology content index (ETCI), thus came to the conclusion that ETC and ETCI of both China’s and ASEAN's trade products increased rapidly and narrowed the gap with Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries, and therefore China and ASEAN showed competition in technology.
At present, with the construction of CAFTA, there are still favorable conditions and unfavorable constraints, such as complementarity of resource endowments, regional economic integration, lower tariffs and other factors, which are promoting the construction of CAFTA; clear competitive economic structure, economic development level among the members being quite different, lack of cohesiveness of ASEAN such problems that have hindered the development of trade. Finally, this paper looked into the prospect of CAFTA, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations: both China and ASEAN should pay attention to difference and high value-added product development, speeding up industrial restructuring to avoid competition under the same structure of the economy and enhance technical level of trade commodities on further;ASEAN countries should be adhering to the developing principle of" seek common ground while reserving differences ", promoting China-ASEAN trade cooperation.
引文
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[2] Balassa,B, Tariff Reductions and Trade in Manufactures Among the Industrial Countries[J]. The American Economic Review,1966,1(56):466-473
[3] Falvey,R.E. Commercial Policy and Intra-Industry Trade [J].Journal of International Economics,1981,(11):495-511
[4] Grubel,H.G.and Lloyd,P.J. Intra-Industry Trade: The Theory and Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products[J]. London, Macmillan, 1975,(49): 236
[5] Greenaway,D.Hayne,Mand Milner,C.R Adjustment, Employment Characteristics and Intra-Industry Trade[J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 2002, 138(2):254-276
[6] Helpman.Elhanan, Krugman.P. Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1985,56-58
[7] Hausmann Ricardo, Jason Hwang and Rodrik Dani. What You Export Matters [J]. NBER Working Paper 11905,1-14
[8] Jones, R.W., Kierzkowski, Hand Leonard, Fragmentation and Intra-Industry Trade[J]. in P. J. Lloyd and Hyun-Hoon Lee(Ed.), Frontiers of Research in intra-Industry Trade, Palgrave Macmillan,NewYork,2002,(47):78-80
[9] Krugman.P. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic competition and International Trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1979,(l9):469-479
[10] Kandogan,Yener. Intra-Industry Trade of Transition Countries: Trends and Determinants [J]. Emerging Markets Review,2003,(4):276-278
[11] Lancaster,K. Varity,Equity and Efficiency[J].Basi1 Blackwell,1979,(5):428-439
[12] Lall Sanjaya. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports 1985-1998[J]. Oxford Development Studies, 2000,28(3):337-368
[13] Lall, China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports[J].World Development,2004,32(9):1441-1466
[14] Lall Sanjaya, Weiss John and Zhang Jinkang. The‘sophistication’of exports: Anew trade measure [J]. World Development,2006,34(2):222-237
[15] Verdoorn,P.J. The Intra-Bloc Trade of Benelux[J]. in E.A.G. Robinson(ed), the Economic consequence of the Size of Nations, London, Macmillan, 1960, (6):209-211
[16]杨亮,吕耀.中国-东盟农产品贸易及其影响分析[J].资源科学,2009,(10):1655
[17]关志雄.从美国市场看“中国制造”的实力—以信息技术产品为中心[J].国际经济评论,2002,(4):5-8
[18]闫国庆.我国技术结构、产业结构的多元性与技术引进的层次性[J].科学进步与对策,2002,(4):30-31
[19]胡均民.中国-东盟自由贸易区:贸易趋势与效应分析[J].改革与战略,2005,(3): 5-6
[20]樊纲,关志雄,姚枝仲等.国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布[J].经济研究, 2006,(8):70-80
[21]何帆,齐俊妍.中韩出口产品的竞争程度分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006, (4):59-66
[22]王文创,苑涛.中国与东盟自由贸易区的竞争与对策[J].经济发展与改革, 2008, (3):47-49
[23]张亚斌,许苹.中国与东盟贸易竞争力及贸易相似度的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2003,(11):86-87
[24]于津平.中国与东亚主要国家和地区间的比较优势与贸易互补性[J].世界经济, 2003,(5):34-37
[25]孙林,李岳云.中国与东盟主要国家农产品的贸易竞争关系分析[J].世界经济研究,2008,(3):82-85
[26]侯铁珊,宋岩.中国与东盟的贸易相关指数分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005,(7): 44-45
[27]荣静,杨川.中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争和贸易互补实证分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2006,(8):48-49
[28]陈雯.中国与东盟双边贸易关系评析[J].当代亚太,2003,(8):42-45
[29]唐盛尧.中国与东盟农产品贸易比较优势分析[J].世界农业,2008,(11):6-8
[30]孙林.中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争关系[J].国际贸易问题,2005,(11):82-84
[31]甄淑华.中国与东盟贸易、投资领域的竞争性与互补性研究[D]:[山东大学硕士论文].济南:山东大学, 2005,(10):28-31
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