辽宁中南部地区地下水开发风险评价研究
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摘要
水是维持生态系统完整、人类生存和社会经济发展的基础性资源。近年来随着人口的快速增长、生产规模的不断扩大和城市化进程的加快,全球很多地区都面临着不同程度的水问题。我国的水资源总量丰富,但人均水资源占有量只有世界平均水平的四分之一,因此水资源短缺成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的重要因素。伴随着水资源短缺和水污染加剧,部分地区地表水供水工程已无法满足日益增长的需水量,很多地区通过开采地下水资源或远距离调水来解决水资源短缺问题。地下水具有较大的调蓄能力,具有年调节或多年调节功能,水质良好,因此地下水资源的开发利用越来越受到重视。
地下水资源开发的最终目的是实现地下水资源的优化利用,因而开展地下水开发风险评价工作,将为我国科学地进行地下水开发利用提供有效的决策支持工具,对促进地下水资源可持续利用、保障生态环境良性循环和维护人类健康起到积极的促进作用。
本文首先总结和论述了国内外在地下水开发风险评价方面的现状和研究进展,明确研究的目的和意义。其次详细论述评价指标体系构建的方法和原则,并介绍突变理论的原理和初等突变模型,在此基础上以辽宁中南部地区为实例,利用突变理论对地下水开发的风险进行了评价。根据辽宁中南部地区的实际情况,选取7座典型城市,分别是沈阳、大连、鞍山、抚顺、本溪、营口和辽阳。在分析其自然状况、经济状况和地质条件的基础上,选取了14项评价指标,分别是渗透系数、浅层地下水位埋深、降水入渗系数、潜水蒸发系数、多年平均降水量、多年平均蒸发量、地下水补给模数、地下水可采模数、地下水开采强度、地下水质量等级、地下水占总用水量比例、工业增长率、农业增长率和人口自然增长率。应用突变模型计算得出辽宁中南部地区地下水开发的风险值在0.7105～0.8729之间,其中沈阳地下水开发风险值最高,为0.8729,属于重险区,其它城市均介于0.70～0.85之间,属于中险区。总体来看,辽宁中南部地区地下水开发的风险较大,地下水开发利用的形势比较严峻。
实例应用表明利用突变理论对辽宁中南部地区地下水的开发风险进行评价是切实可行的。而且可为其它地区的地下水开发风险评价提供借鉴。最后通过分析地下水开发风险的评价结果,并结合辽宁中南部地区地下水开发利用过程中已存在的一些问题,建议从地下水资源管理、地下水资源高效利用、建立合理水价机制和加强法制管理和行政管理等方面采取相应的控制手段和有效措施,以实现对该地区地下水资源的可持续开发利用和科学管理。
Water is the basic resource which can keep the integrated ecological system, human existing and socioeconomic development, however, some areas in the world are facing water problems with different levels, with the population increasing, manufacture expanding and the speeding up of urbanization process. The water resources are not rich in our country, average water quality counts for 25% average level in the world which has become a restrict factor on developing sustainably in our country. Recently, parts of cities have been unable to meet the water supply demand, so we must solve these problems though groundwater exploitation. As the groundwater has a large storage capacity and not easily be polluted. It is also in favor of enhancing the popular sensing in the water management between demand and supply. This study is of great meaning for the water and ecological protection. What’s more, it will beneficial to the sustainable water utilization and eco-environmental development and human health.
In this paper, the conception, the characteristics of groundwater exploitation risk and influence factors was firstly discussed. Then, the basic content of the groundwater risk was put forward, the principle and steps for establishing the index system on the groundwater exploitation risk was introduced. Furthermore, the index system on the groundwater exploitation risk was built. Based on the above-mentioned issues, groundwater exploitation risk in the western part of mid-southern of Liaoning province was calculated by using catastrophe theory. According to the analysis of the physical geography, economic conditions and the hydrogeology conditions in the study area. There are seven cities, such as Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan, Fushun, Benxi, Yingkou and Liaoyang. Taking these cities as the examples, 14 indexes are chosen to assess the risk of groundwater exploitation, such as hydraulic conductivity, annual evaporation, precipitation and so on. The groundwater exploitation risk was classified by using the danger degree criterion of water resources department, and the important index in the single index layer and the general target layer were evaluated using the catastrophe theory. The results show that the risk values of all districts is between 0.7105-0.8799, the maximum value is 0.8799 in the Shenyang, and the minimum value is 0.7105 in the Benxi. Groundwater exploitation risk in the western part of mid-southern of Liaoning province is very high. It is dangerous to exploit and utilize groundwater in these areas.
The evaluation results show that it is feasible and reasonable to use the catastrophe theory to assess the groundwater exploitation risk. According to the evaluation results, some suggestions were put forward from the law measure, management system, public consciousness and policy lead.
地下水资源开发的最终目的是实现地下水资源的优化利用,因而开展地下水开发风险评价工作,将为我国科学地进行地下水开发利用提供有效的决策支持工具,对促进地下水资源可持续利用、保障生态环境良性循环和维护人类健康起到积极的促进作用。
本文首先总结和论述了国内外在地下水开发风险评价方面的现状和研究进展,明确研究的目的和意义。其次详细论述评价指标体系构建的方法和原则,并介绍突变理论的原理和初等突变模型,在此基础上以辽宁中南部地区为实例,利用突变理论对地下水开发的风险进行了评价。根据辽宁中南部地区的实际情况,选取7座典型城市,分别是沈阳、大连、鞍山、抚顺、本溪、营口和辽阳。在分析其自然状况、经济状况和地质条件的基础上,选取了14项评价指标,分别是渗透系数、浅层地下水位埋深、降水入渗系数、潜水蒸发系数、多年平均降水量、多年平均蒸发量、地下水补给模数、地下水可采模数、地下水开采强度、地下水质量等级、地下水占总用水量比例、工业增长率、农业增长率和人口自然增长率。应用突变模型计算得出辽宁中南部地区地下水开发的风险值在0.7105～0.8729之间,其中沈阳地下水开发风险值最高,为0.8729,属于重险区,其它城市均介于0.70～0.85之间,属于中险区。总体来看,辽宁中南部地区地下水开发的风险较大,地下水开发利用的形势比较严峻。
实例应用表明利用突变理论对辽宁中南部地区地下水的开发风险进行评价是切实可行的。而且可为其它地区的地下水开发风险评价提供借鉴。最后通过分析地下水开发风险的评价结果,并结合辽宁中南部地区地下水开发利用过程中已存在的一些问题,建议从地下水资源管理、地下水资源高效利用、建立合理水价机制和加强法制管理和行政管理等方面采取相应的控制手段和有效措施,以实现对该地区地下水资源的可持续开发利用和科学管理。
Water is the basic resource which can keep the integrated ecological system, human existing and socioeconomic development, however, some areas in the world are facing water problems with different levels, with the population increasing, manufacture expanding and the speeding up of urbanization process. The water resources are not rich in our country, average water quality counts for 25% average level in the world which has become a restrict factor on developing sustainably in our country. Recently, parts of cities have been unable to meet the water supply demand, so we must solve these problems though groundwater exploitation. As the groundwater has a large storage capacity and not easily be polluted. It is also in favor of enhancing the popular sensing in the water management between demand and supply. This study is of great meaning for the water and ecological protection. What’s more, it will beneficial to the sustainable water utilization and eco-environmental development and human health.
In this paper, the conception, the characteristics of groundwater exploitation risk and influence factors was firstly discussed. Then, the basic content of the groundwater risk was put forward, the principle and steps for establishing the index system on the groundwater exploitation risk was introduced. Furthermore, the index system on the groundwater exploitation risk was built. Based on the above-mentioned issues, groundwater exploitation risk in the western part of mid-southern of Liaoning province was calculated by using catastrophe theory. According to the analysis of the physical geography, economic conditions and the hydrogeology conditions in the study area. There are seven cities, such as Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan, Fushun, Benxi, Yingkou and Liaoyang. Taking these cities as the examples, 14 indexes are chosen to assess the risk of groundwater exploitation, such as hydraulic conductivity, annual evaporation, precipitation and so on. The groundwater exploitation risk was classified by using the danger degree criterion of water resources department, and the important index in the single index layer and the general target layer were evaluated using the catastrophe theory. The results show that the risk values of all districts is between 0.7105-0.8799, the maximum value is 0.8799 in the Shenyang, and the minimum value is 0.7105 in the Benxi. Groundwater exploitation risk in the western part of mid-southern of Liaoning province is very high. It is dangerous to exploit and utilize groundwater in these areas.
The evaluation results show that it is feasible and reasonable to use the catastrophe theory to assess the groundwater exploitation risk. According to the evaluation results, some suggestions were put forward from the law measure, management system, public consciousness and policy lead.
引文
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[5]李宝兰,杨绍南,颜秉英.辽宁省中南部分城市地下水脆弱性评价[J].地下水, 2009, 31(2): 28-32.
[6]刘春玲.吉林西部地下水开发风险评价[D].吉林大学, 2006.
[7]李中斌.风险管理解读[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2000. 1.
[8] Han, Jiho Y. The relationships of perceived risk to personal factors, knowledge of destination, and travel purchase decisions in international leisure travel(Australia, Japan)[D]. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 2005.
[9] Voetsch, Robert James. The current state of project risk management practices among risk sensitive project management professionals[D]. The George Washington University, 2004.
[10] Sangasubana, Nisaratana. Consumers risk perceptions of over-the-counter drug products: Concept and measure using quantitative and qualitative methods[D]. The University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2003.
[11] Sergeldin, l. Towards Sustainable Aanagement of water Resource. world Bank, Washington[R], 1998:14.
[12] Hillenbrand, Charles John. Groundwater-risk analysis of New York utilizing GIS technologh[D]. City University of New York, 2002.
[13] Coicoechea A, Krouse M R, Antle L G. An approach to risk and uncertainty in benefit cast analysis of water resources projects[J]. Water Resour Res, 1982, 18(4): 791-799.
[14] Hashimoto T, Stedinger J R, Loucks D P.Reliabilith, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation[J]. Water Resour Res, 1982, 18(1): 14-20.
[15]汤皓,陈国兴.基于GIS和神经网络模型的场地地震液化势风险评价[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版, 2007, 32(8): 727-730.
[16]李鹏雁,刘刚.基于层次分析法的不良资产证券化风险评价[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2007, 39(12): 1949-1951.
[17]杨铭,李原,张开富等.基于改进的计划评审技术的航空项目风险评价技术研究[J].计算机集成制造系统, 2008, 14(1): 192-208.
[18]唐明,邵东国,姚成林等.改进的突变评价法在旱灾风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报, 2009, 40(7): 858-869.
[19]管小俊,王喜富,沈喜生.单一品类大宗货物铁路局部运输网络组合风险评价方法研究[J].铁道学报, 2010, 32(3): 119-124.
[20]汤国杰.超大型船舶受限水域航行风险评价[J].中国航海, 2010, 33(3): 105-108.
[21]郑建锋,陈钦,黄种发.福建省商品林投资风险评价[J].中国农学通报, 2010, 26(19): 112-115.
[22]唐川,朱静.城市泥石流风险评价探讨[J].水科学进展, 2006, 17(3): 383-388.
[23]李如忠,汪家权,钱家忠.地下水允许开采量的未确知风险分析[J].水利学报, 2004, (4): 54-60.
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