摘要
镍是重要的有色金属矿产资源,由于其广泛的应用,不仅是国家经济和社会发展的重要物质基础,同时确保其安全对国家经济也是至关重要的。近年来,我国进入了一个工业化快速发展阶段,镍金属矿产资源的需求迅速增加,同时迅速扩大的对国外资源的依赖,竞争激烈的国际市场需求,日益加剧的供给方面的市场垄断和不断上升的市场价格使镍资源安全正面临着前所未有的风险。
国家安全中的矿产资源安全是其重要的组成部分,使得世界各国高度重视矿产资源问题,现代化社会的今天,每一次区域冲突和战争、每一个重大的政治模式的变化以及每一个重要经济体的变革,全部围绕着资源这一主题及其供应状况进行规划。有色金属矿产资源作为国家经济安全的一个重要组成部分,在国家经济安全中起着重要的作用。我国镍金属矿产资源安全对我国的经济发展和全面建设小康社会具有深刻的现实意义。本文取得的主要认识结论和成果如下:
1、系统预测了未来20年中国镍需求趋势:未来中国镍需求将仍旧持续增长,2030年需求量将达到142万吨,为目前的2倍;2012-2030年中国累计需求精炼镍2239万吨,为建国以来消费总和的5.5倍,未来20年中国镍需求总量巨大。
2、首次运用计量经济学方法,对国内和国际市场镍价格的相关关系进行了系统分析,结果表明,目前国际市场镍价对国内市场具有影响,而国内市场对国际市场则不具备影响力,中国在国际镍市场定价中没有话语权。
3、从短期安全和长期安全两方面分别构建了中国镍安全评价指标评价体系。并分别建立了短期和长期镍安全评价模型,首次对我国镍资源安全现状进行了系统全面的评价和分析,其结果表明:中国镍资源短期与长期安全均呈现下降趋势,且已处于危险状态。
4、建立了镍资源安全预警体系。依据安全评价结果,确定了安全预警阈值,将预警分为5个级别,针对不同级别警情制定应对预案。
5、从国内供应、境外开发、国际市场三方面,矿山镍、再生镍以及精炼镍三个环节,定量构建了未来20年镍安全保障目标;同时通过加大国内勘查开发力度,提高国内供应能力,积极扩大二次资源回收和镍铁供应量等多种途径,保障镍资源安全,降低对外依存度。
Nickel is an important non-ferrous mineral resource, because of its wide range ofapplications, an important material foundation for not only the national economic andsocial development while safeguarding the security of the national economy and thepeople's livelihood is essential. In recent years, China has entered a stage of rapiddevelopment of industrialization, the rapid increase in demand for nickel-metalmineral resources, the resources and the rapid expansion of external dependence,fierce international competition demand, increasing supply-side monopoly andcontinuously rising market prices, etc. lead to a nickel resources security is facing anunprecedented risk. This paper systematically summarizes Nickel Resources domesticsupply and demand situation at home and abroad market for the security of ChinaNickel Resources, were constructed in accordance with the short-term and long-termsafety evaluation index system; scientific safety evaluation model to create a resource,quantitative assessment of the security situation and future trends of China Nickel;based on the assessment a result, the establishment of security early warning andsecurity system, to crack China resources security Dilemma proposed new strategicthinking.The article main conclusions and results are as follows:
1. The article forecast nickel demand trends for the next20years, the resultsshowed that the Chinese nickel demand will still continue to grow, demandwill reach1.42million tons in2030,which are2times at present demand;2012-2030, China's total demand for refined nickel22Mt, which are5.5timesthe total amount of consumption since the founding of the China, next20years the amount of nickel demand in China is huge.
2. The article first time use the econometric methods a systematic analysis of therelationship nickel prices on the domestic and international markets,the resultsshow that the current international market price of nickel has an impact on thedomestic market, while the domestic market will not have influence on the international market, China have low right to speak in the international nickelmarket pricing.
3. The article also constructed the short-term safety and long-term safety of thenickel safety evaluation index evaluation system. The short-term safetyassessment covers dependence on foreign resource prices, the market can bemanipulated degree etc.six indicators; evaluation of long-term safety includingdomestic demand, the reserve-production ratio, and international geopoliticaletc.seven indicators.
4. Establish short-term and long-term nickel safety evaluation model. For theirst the status quo of China's nickel resource security time a systematic andcomprehensive evaluation and analysis, and the results showed that: ChinaNickel Resources short-term and long-term safety showed a downward trend,and have been at risk.
5. The establishment of the the nickel resource security early warning system.Based on the safety assessment results to determine the safety warningthreshold, the warning is divided into five levels, and to develop plans to dealwith different levels of police intelligence.
6. From the domestic supply, overseas development and international market,renewable nickel and nickel refining the three aspects, quantitative build thenext20years nickel-security objectives, pointed out that China NickelResources rational structure of the supply to the world market-basedsupplemented by overseas development; increase domestic exploration anddevelopment efforts to improve domestic supply capacity, and actively expandthe secondary resource recovery and ferro-nickel supply a variety of ways toprotect the safety of nickel resources, reduce dependence on foreign.
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