极值波高极值水位联合设计参数的推算
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摘要
本文结合1999-2009年共11年的海洋灾害公报,对近11年风暴潮致灾损失以及发生频率做了详细的介绍,实际数据显示,风暴潮灾害对海岸工程设施(如防波堤、护岸、塘坝)造成的损毁也是非常严重,严重威胁我国沿海人民群众的生命财产安全,迫切需要我们更加提高风暴潮灾害防御预测方面的准确度。
因为波高和水位对海洋工程最为直观和重要,本文主要考虑极值波高与极值水位对海洋工程设计参数的影响,针对当前海洋工程设计标准多采用单因素方法进行风险预测分析,如：百年一遇波高,五十年一遇水位,而极值波高和极值水位往往是相伴同时产生的,尤其是在受风暴潮过程的影响下；同时传统的海洋资料风险分析方法需要人为选择分布曲线,这也给风险分析带来一定主观性的干扰。
鉴于传统方法的主观性以及未考虑各海洋要素之间对海岸工程设施的联合作用,本文基于最大熵原则,建立了二维联合最大熵下的极值模型,并将新模型应用到极值波高极值水位联合设计参数的推算当中,结果表明新模型对海洋工程设计参数的推算具有很好的适应性。
In this paper, through 1999-2009, all total 11 years ocean disaster bulletins, made a detailed description to the hazard losses and frequency about nearly 11 years storm surges. Through the real-measured data, the damage of ocean utility causing by storm surges is very serious, dire treating the lives and property of coastal people and making huge damage to seacoast utility, then, improving accuracy of storm surges disaster defense forecast is integrant.
For wave height and water level are more intuitive and important to ocean utility, in this paper, considering the effect extreme wave height and extreme water level bring on ocean utility design parameters, recently, single factor analysis means are used continually in ocean utility designing criterion risk predictive analytics, such as: a-hundred-year return period wave height, fifty years return period water level, especially under the effect of storm surges, wave height and water level always arise at the same time; Mean while, traditional ocean data risk analysis methods need Artificial selection distribution curve, this brings some subjectivity obstruction to risk analysis.
For traditional methods'subjectivity and don't consider the combined action ocean essential factor bring to ocean utility, setting up two-dimensional joint entropy model by deriving extreme wave height and water level joint distribution function under the two-dimensional joint maximum entropy principle, and applying the new model in extreme wave height and extreme water level joint new model has the merit of Minimum Interference and considers the relevance of wave height and water level which traditional models doesn't have, it is more adaptability in ocean utility designing parameter.
因为波高和水位对海洋工程最为直观和重要,本文主要考虑极值波高与极值水位对海洋工程设计参数的影响,针对当前海洋工程设计标准多采用单因素方法进行风险预测分析,如：百年一遇波高,五十年一遇水位,而极值波高和极值水位往往是相伴同时产生的,尤其是在受风暴潮过程的影响下；同时传统的海洋资料风险分析方法需要人为选择分布曲线,这也给风险分析带来一定主观性的干扰。
鉴于传统方法的主观性以及未考虑各海洋要素之间对海岸工程设施的联合作用,本文基于最大熵原则,建立了二维联合最大熵下的极值模型,并将新模型应用到极值波高极值水位联合设计参数的推算当中,结果表明新模型对海洋工程设计参数的推算具有很好的适应性。
In this paper, through 1999-2009, all total 11 years ocean disaster bulletins, made a detailed description to the hazard losses and frequency about nearly 11 years storm surges. Through the real-measured data, the damage of ocean utility causing by storm surges is very serious, dire treating the lives and property of coastal people and making huge damage to seacoast utility, then, improving accuracy of storm surges disaster defense forecast is integrant.
For wave height and water level are more intuitive and important to ocean utility, in this paper, considering the effect extreme wave height and extreme water level bring on ocean utility design parameters, recently, single factor analysis means are used continually in ocean utility designing criterion risk predictive analytics, such as: a-hundred-year return period wave height, fifty years return period water level, especially under the effect of storm surges, wave height and water level always arise at the same time; Mean while, traditional ocean data risk analysis methods need Artificial selection distribution curve, this brings some subjectivity obstruction to risk analysis.
For traditional methods'subjectivity and don't consider the combined action ocean essential factor bring to ocean utility, setting up two-dimensional joint entropy model by deriving extreme wave height and water level joint distribution function under the two-dimensional joint maximum entropy principle, and applying the new model in extreme wave height and extreme water level joint new model has the merit of Minimum Interference and considers the relevance of wave height and water level which traditional models doesn't have, it is more adaptability in ocean utility designing parameter.
引文
[1]《2009年中国海洋经济统计公报》,国家统计局,2010
[2]《1999-2009年中国海洋灾害公报》,国家海洋局,2000-2010
[3]国家海洋局,中国海洋灾害与减灾,中国减灾,2000,10(4)：27-32
[4]董胜,于亚群,余海静.海岸风暴潮减水的统计分析.自然灾害学报,2004,13(4)
[5]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院.《海港水文规范》.人民交通出版社,2004
[6]董胜,付新钰,尹春维.龙口港极端设计水位的组合估计.中国海洋大学学报,2008,38(2)
[7]Zhang Jun, Xu Delun. Beta Distribution of Surface Elevation of Random Waves. China Ocean Engineering,2001
[8]Chen Zhengshou, Wang Liping, Yu Dingyong, Wu-joan KIM. A Maximum-Entropy Method for Estimating the Spectrum. China Ocean Engineering,2007
[9]刘德辅,董胜.随机工程海洋学.青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2004
[10]冯利华,张萍.基于最大熵原理的台风统计预报.海洋科学,2003,27(3)
[11]张军,葛勇,陈航宇,周喜武.T年重现期波高的最大熵估计.台湾海峡,2006,25(2)
[12]谷学准,李翠琳,于定勇.鳌山湾水域水文设计参数分析.海岸工程,2008,27(2)
[13]颜秀花,周良明等.渤海平均海平面及多年一遇极值水位的计算.海洋科学进展,2008,26(2)
[14]简裕庚,李叶新等.广东省年最高水位多年一遇的极值计算.中山大学学报(自然科学版),2003,42(2)
[15]Zhang L Z, Xu D L. A new maximum entropy probability function for the surface elevation of nonlinear sea waves [J]. China Ocean Engineering,2004,19(4):637-646
[16]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.防洪设计水位推算新模型.第十四届中国海洋(岸)工程学术讨论会论文集(下册),2009
[17]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.设计波高推算的一种新模型.中国海洋大学学报,2010,40(1)：54-58
[18]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.台风影响下青岛地区多年一遇设计水位.“海洋动力过程与天气、气候变化”联合学术年会论文摘要集,2009
[19]董胜,郝小丽,樊敦秋.海洋工程设计风速与波高的联合分布.海洋学报,2005,27(3)
[20]刘德辅,宋艳,李晓冬Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用.海洋工程,2003,21(4)
[21]刘德辅,王莉萍,庞亮.多维复合极值分布理论在极端海况概率预测中的应用.科学通报,2006,51(9)
[22]刘德辅,王莉萍,宋艳,庞亮.复合极值分布理论及其工程应用.中国海洋大学学报,2004,34(5)
[23]史道济.实用极值统计方法.天津：天津科学技术出版社,2006
[24]Ledbetter M R, Lindgren G and Rootzen H. Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes. New York:Springer-Verlag,1983
[25]汤麟武,庄士贤.纷纭学——宇宙及人间各种紊乱与偶发事件研究.台北：财团法人成大水利海洋研究发展文教基金会出版,2000
[26]刘德辅,董胜.随机工程海洋学.青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2004
[27]徐德伦,于定勇.随机海浪理论.北京：高等教育出版社,2001
[28]金光炎.水文统计的原理与方法.北京：水利电力出版社,1964
[29]刘德辅,马逢时.极值分布理论在计算波高多年分布中的应用.应用数学学报,1976,12(1)：23-37
[30]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅.概率论与数理统计.北京：高等教育出版社,2001
[31]中山大学数学力学系.概率论及数理统计.北京：人民教育出版社,1980
[32]姜丹.信息理论与编码.合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,1992
[33]阮吉寿,张华.信息论基础.北京：机械工业出版社,2005
[34]冯利华,张萍.基于最大熵原理的台风统计预报.海洋科学,2003,27(3)
[35]张军,葛勇,陈航宇,周喜武.T年重现期波高的最大熵估计.台湾海峡,2006,25(2)
[36]Zhou Liangming, Guo Peifang, Wang Qiang, Du Yi. Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to Studying the Distribution of Wave Heights in A Random Wave Field. China Ocean Engineering,2004,18(1)
[37]徐福敏.最大信息熵原理在波高分布中的应用.河海大学学报,2000,28(1)
[38]董胜,郝小丽,李锋,刘德辅.海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式.水科学进展,2005,16(1)
[39]叶庆凯,郑应平.变分法及其应用.北京：国防工业出版社,1991
[40]苏家铎,潘杰等.泛函分析与变分法.合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,1993
[41]牛庠均.现代变分原理.北京：北京工业大学出版社,1992
[42]史道济.多元极值分布参数的极大似然估计与分布估计.系统科学与数学,1997,17(3),244-251
[43]仇学艳,王超,秦崇仁.多元极值概率分析方法在海洋工程中的应用现状.海洋工程,2001,]9(3)：91-95
[44]董胜,付新钰,尹春维.龙口港极端设计水位的组合估计.中国海洋大学学报,2008,38 (3)
[45]董胜,丛锦松,余海静.涠洲岛海域年极值风浪联合设计参数估计.中国海洋大学学报,2006,36(3)
[2]《1999-2009年中国海洋灾害公报》,国家海洋局,2000-2010
[3]国家海洋局,中国海洋灾害与减灾,中国减灾,2000,10(4)：27-32
[4]董胜,于亚群,余海静.海岸风暴潮减水的统计分析.自然灾害学报,2004,13(4)
[5]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院.《海港水文规范》.人民交通出版社,2004
[6]董胜,付新钰,尹春维.龙口港极端设计水位的组合估计.中国海洋大学学报,2008,38(2)
[7]Zhang Jun, Xu Delun. Beta Distribution of Surface Elevation of Random Waves. China Ocean Engineering,2001
[8]Chen Zhengshou, Wang Liping, Yu Dingyong, Wu-joan KIM. A Maximum-Entropy Method for Estimating the Spectrum. China Ocean Engineering,2007
[9]刘德辅,董胜.随机工程海洋学.青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2004
[10]冯利华,张萍.基于最大熵原理的台风统计预报.海洋科学,2003,27(3)
[11]张军,葛勇,陈航宇,周喜武.T年重现期波高的最大熵估计.台湾海峡,2006,25(2)
[12]谷学准,李翠琳,于定勇.鳌山湾水域水文设计参数分析.海岸工程,2008,27(2)
[13]颜秀花,周良明等.渤海平均海平面及多年一遇极值水位的计算.海洋科学进展,2008,26(2)
[14]简裕庚,李叶新等.广东省年最高水位多年一遇的极值计算.中山大学学报(自然科学版),2003,42(2)
[15]Zhang L Z, Xu D L. A new maximum entropy probability function for the surface elevation of nonlinear sea waves [J]. China Ocean Engineering,2004,19(4):637-646
[16]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.防洪设计水位推算新模型.第十四届中国海洋(岸)工程学术讨论会论文集(下册),2009
[17]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.设计波高推算的一种新模型.中国海洋大学学报,2010,40(1)：54-58
[18]王莉萍,代伟,齐莹.台风影响下青岛地区多年一遇设计水位.“海洋动力过程与天气、气候变化”联合学术年会论文摘要集,2009
[19]董胜,郝小丽,樊敦秋.海洋工程设计风速与波高的联合分布.海洋学报,2005,27(3)
[20]刘德辅,宋艳,李晓冬Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用.海洋工程,2003,21(4)
[21]刘德辅,王莉萍,庞亮.多维复合极值分布理论在极端海况概率预测中的应用.科学通报,2006,51(9)
[22]刘德辅,王莉萍,宋艳,庞亮.复合极值分布理论及其工程应用.中国海洋大学学报,2004,34(5)
[23]史道济.实用极值统计方法.天津：天津科学技术出版社,2006
[24]Ledbetter M R, Lindgren G and Rootzen H. Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes. New York:Springer-Verlag,1983
[25]汤麟武,庄士贤.纷纭学——宇宙及人间各种紊乱与偶发事件研究.台北：财团法人成大水利海洋研究发展文教基金会出版,2000
[26]刘德辅,董胜.随机工程海洋学.青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2004
[27]徐德伦,于定勇.随机海浪理论.北京：高等教育出版社,2001
[28]金光炎.水文统计的原理与方法.北京：水利电力出版社,1964
[29]刘德辅,马逢时.极值分布理论在计算波高多年分布中的应用.应用数学学报,1976,12(1)：23-37
[30]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅.概率论与数理统计.北京：高等教育出版社,2001
[31]中山大学数学力学系.概率论及数理统计.北京：人民教育出版社,1980
[32]姜丹.信息理论与编码.合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,1992
[33]阮吉寿,张华.信息论基础.北京：机械工业出版社,2005
[34]冯利华,张萍.基于最大熵原理的台风统计预报.海洋科学,2003,27(3)
[35]张军,葛勇,陈航宇,周喜武.T年重现期波高的最大熵估计.台湾海峡,2006,25(2)
[36]Zhou Liangming, Guo Peifang, Wang Qiang, Du Yi. Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to Studying the Distribution of Wave Heights in A Random Wave Field. China Ocean Engineering,2004,18(1)
[37]徐福敏.最大信息熵原理在波高分布中的应用.河海大学学报,2000,28(1)
[38]董胜,郝小丽,李锋,刘德辅.海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式.水科学进展,2005,16(1)
[39]叶庆凯,郑应平.变分法及其应用.北京：国防工业出版社,1991
[40]苏家铎,潘杰等.泛函分析与变分法.合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,1993
[41]牛庠均.现代变分原理.北京：北京工业大学出版社,1992
[42]史道济.多元极值分布参数的极大似然估计与分布估计.系统科学与数学,1997,17(3),244-251
[43]仇学艳,王超,秦崇仁.多元极值概率分析方法在海洋工程中的应用现状.海洋工程,2001,]9(3)：91-95
[44]董胜,付新钰,尹春维.龙口港极端设计水位的组合估计.中国海洋大学学报,2008,38 (3)
[45]董胜,丛锦松,余海静.涠洲岛海域年极值风浪联合设计参数估计.中国海洋大学学报,2006,36(3)