西南山区铁路路堑地段风险评估与决策
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摘要
随着我国国民经济的发展和社会的进步,西南地区的铁路建设获得了迅猛发展。由于我国西南地区山区面积大,地质情况复杂,铁路建设过程中地质灾害频繁发生。在西南地区的铁路建设中,经常需要在特殊复杂的地理环境下开挖路堑,其中很大一部分为高陡边坡。路堑地段在设计和施工中的安全风险状态对西南山区铁路建设和运营的安全性具有重大影响。路堑地段安全风险的因素多而复杂,而国内针对铁路路基工程的风险评估工作并不多见。因此,在西南山区的铁路建设中,开展和进行路堑地段的风险评估,避免工程事故的发生和减少风险损失是十分必要的。
本文在分析国内外风险评估现状以及常用方法的基础上,借鉴了隧道工程风险评估的已有成果。依据铁路路基工程的特点,选用了定性与定量相结合的方法,并分析了其常用方法的优缺点。通过层次分析法和专家打分法的综合运用,建立了路堑地段风险评估的分析模型,得到了各风险因素对路堑地段安全性影响大小,并针对影响较大的因素提出了合理的建议。
基于正交试验原理,运用FLAC 3D有限差分软件对路堑边坡和锚固边坡的主要稳定性影响因素进行了敏感性分析,得出了各影响因素对边坡稳定性的影响趋势,并将各因素进行了排序。
最后,以四川省某专用线路堑地段的风险评估为例,演绎了针对某具体工程风险评估和决策的实施方法,对以后的设计和施工提出了指导性的建议。
With the development of economy and society in china, a rapid development of construction of the railway in southwest area of our country was obtained. Due to the realities that there are a lot of mountains in this area and their geological conditions are very complex, the geological disasters occur frequently within the railway construction. During the railway construction in the southwest, cutting is often excavated in special and complex geographic environment, a large part of which are high and steep slopes. The risk of designing and building of the cutting section takes a significant effect on the safety of the southwest railway construction and operation. Since there are a large number of complicated factors that may determine the safety and risk in cutting segments, little research has been done to assess the risk of railway subgrade construction. Therefore, during the southwest railway construction, risk assessment of the cutting segments is very necessary to avoid engineering accidents and reduce risk loss.
In this paper, an analysis of the present research situation and traditional methods of risk assessment has been done. Based on the existing methods of risk assessment of tunnel engineering, a mixed quantitative and quantitative method has been adopted according to the particular characteristics of railway subgrade construction. The advantages and disadvantages of common methods of risk assessment are also discussed. By using the methods of analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring jointly, the risk assessment analysis model of cutting sections is established, the influence of the various risk factors on the safety of cutting area is obtained, and some reasonable suggestions about the significant factors are provided.
Based on the principle of orthogonal test, the sensitivity of main stability factors of cutting and anchoring slope are analyzed using the FLAC 3D finite difference software. The influential trends that each factor taken to the stability of the slope are obtained, and the factors are correspondingly sorted.
Finally, taken an example of risk assessment and decision about a cutting area in a private railway project in Sichuan province, this paper addresses how to carry out risk assessment in a particular project, and proposes some constructive advises in designing and construction for the future.
本文在分析国内外风险评估现状以及常用方法的基础上,借鉴了隧道工程风险评估的已有成果。依据铁路路基工程的特点,选用了定性与定量相结合的方法,并分析了其常用方法的优缺点。通过层次分析法和专家打分法的综合运用,建立了路堑地段风险评估的分析模型,得到了各风险因素对路堑地段安全性影响大小,并针对影响较大的因素提出了合理的建议。
基于正交试验原理,运用FLAC 3D有限差分软件对路堑边坡和锚固边坡的主要稳定性影响因素进行了敏感性分析,得出了各影响因素对边坡稳定性的影响趋势,并将各因素进行了排序。
最后,以四川省某专用线路堑地段的风险评估为例,演绎了针对某具体工程风险评估和决策的实施方法,对以后的设计和施工提出了指导性的建议。
With the development of economy and society in china, a rapid development of construction of the railway in southwest area of our country was obtained. Due to the realities that there are a lot of mountains in this area and their geological conditions are very complex, the geological disasters occur frequently within the railway construction. During the railway construction in the southwest, cutting is often excavated in special and complex geographic environment, a large part of which are high and steep slopes. The risk of designing and building of the cutting section takes a significant effect on the safety of the southwest railway construction and operation. Since there are a large number of complicated factors that may determine the safety and risk in cutting segments, little research has been done to assess the risk of railway subgrade construction. Therefore, during the southwest railway construction, risk assessment of the cutting segments is very necessary to avoid engineering accidents and reduce risk loss.
In this paper, an analysis of the present research situation and traditional methods of risk assessment has been done. Based on the existing methods of risk assessment of tunnel engineering, a mixed quantitative and quantitative method has been adopted according to the particular characteristics of railway subgrade construction. The advantages and disadvantages of common methods of risk assessment are also discussed. By using the methods of analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring jointly, the risk assessment analysis model of cutting sections is established, the influence of the various risk factors on the safety of cutting area is obtained, and some reasonable suggestions about the significant factors are provided.
Based on the principle of orthogonal test, the sensitivity of main stability factors of cutting and anchoring slope are analyzed using the FLAC 3D finite difference software. The influential trends that each factor taken to the stability of the slope are obtained, and the factors are correspondingly sorted.
Finally, taken an example of risk assessment and decision about a cutting area in a private railway project in Sichuan province, this paper addresses how to carry out risk assessment in a particular project, and proposes some constructive advises in designing and construction for the future.
引文
[1]陈伟珂.工程项目风险管理[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2009.
[2]陈起俊.工程项目风险分析与管理[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2007.
[3]陈云.边坡风险评估系统及其应用研究[D][硕士论文].重庆大学,2007.
[4]李雷,王仁种等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[5]余建星.工程风险评估与控制[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2009.
[6]铁道部第一勘测设计院.路基[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,1995.
[7]苏毅.山区公路高边坡安全风险评价研究[D][硕士论文].重庆交通大学,2009.
[8]高文志.公路工程风险分析与研究[D][硕士论文].天津大学,2006.
[9]宫志群.地铁盾构区间隧道施工风险分析及评价[D][硕士论文].天津大学,2006.
[10]冯文凯.库岸公路边坡稳定性风险分析[D][博士论文].成都理工大学,2005.
[11]李海光等.新型支挡结构设计与工程实例[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[12]张涵.水底输气隧道施工风险评估[D][硕士论文].西南交通大学,2007.
[13]刘晓娟.浅谈对软弱地基的处理方法及措施[J].技术交流,2010,3：62-65.
[14]王平,刘东升,田强,雷用.地下水作用下挡土墙的稳定性分析[J].地下空间,2001,21(5)：475-479.
[15]陈忠达.公路挡土墙设计[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1999.
[16]陈忠达,王海林.公路挡土墙施工[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[17]夏雄,周德培,王利平,封金财.锚固边坡稳定性因素敏感度分析[J].常州工学院学报,2008,21：99-102.
[18]华昊.高速公路滑坡与高边坡病害的防治[J].河南科技,2010,9：23.
[19]王辉,李莉.高边坡锚固参数敏感度分析[J].公路,2006,4：165-167.
[20]张健,陈玉超.路堑边坡稳定性影响因子的敏感性分析[J].路基工程,2008,5：83-84.
[21]戴志仁,张莎莎,谢永利.岩质边坡参数敏感度数值分析[J].路基工程,2010,3：100-102.
[22]陈文凯.高危边坡灾害防治整治技术措施[J].道路交通与安全,2010,10(2)：41-45.
[23]刘克礼,黄凤姣,张丽新.重力式挡土墙的施工质量问题与防治[J].公路工程与运输,2008,2：80-82.
[24]孟火全.路堑高边坡的防护设计与施工[J].铁道建筑,2003,1：51-52.
[25]武翠香,陈素萍,赵明生,余德运.高速公路路堑开挖爆破安全管理浅谈[J].爆破,2006,23(2)：122-124.
[26]曹小威,张国锋,奚守忠.高路堑节理岩体边坡灾害分析及工程防治措施[J].广东建材,2010,8：25-27.
[27]孙晓东,王丹.水土作用导致土钉支护结构失稳及防治措施分析[J].辽宁建材,2009,11：54-55.
[28]邓志刚.土钉墙施工常见病害的防治[J].西部探矿工程,2006,2：121-122.
[29]汪班桥.土层锚杆常见病害破坏机理及防治技术研究[D].长安大学,2010.
[30]廖增雄,廖增铿.重力式挡土墙的病害及防治[J].中国科技信息,2006,11：104-105.
[31]丁兆锋,吴沛沛.U型槽结构设计与分析[J].铁道工程学报,2009,4：13-16.
[32]王伟力,丁建明,熊燕飞.桩板式挡土墙施工方案设计及技术分析[J].西部交通科技,2008：16-18.
[33]宁万辉,宁健,俞美华,柯传芳.降雨对碎石土边坡稳定性的影响分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(1)：83-84.
[34]刘瑞盛,杨俊池.路堑土质边坡的开挖施工控制[J].广东交通职业技术学院学报,2002,2：43-46.
[35]吴长富,朱向荣,尹小涛,刘雪梅.强降雨条件下土质边坡瞬态稳定性分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(2)：386-391.
[36]韩树成.混凝土U型槽在铁路路堑施工中的防水应用[J].科技情报开发与经济,2010,20(5)：157-159.
[37]Katsuya Okada, Tomoyasu Sugiyama, Hisashi Muraishi, Tatsuo Noguchi, Masahiko Samizo.Statistical Risk Estimating Method for Rainfall on Surface Collapse of a Cut Slope[J]. SOIL AND FOUND ATONS,1994,34(3):49-58.
[38]Tomoyasu SUGIYAMA, Dr Eng.Development of Method for Predicting Railway Embankment Collapse Due to Rased on Disaster Examples.QR of RTRI,1999,40(1): 43-49.
[39]侯化国,王玉民.正交试验法[M].吉林：吉林人民出版社,1985.
[40]姜同川.正交试验设计[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1985.
[41]Morgenstem and Price. The analysis of the Stability of General Slip Surface[J]. Goethenique,1965, (5):84-92
[42]Whitman, R.V. Evaluating Calculated Risk in Geotechnical Engineering[J]. Journal of Gemechnical Engineering ASCE, Vol.110, No.2, pp 145-148,1984.
[43]Fell R. Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1994, (31):261-272.
[44]Whitman, R.V. Evaluating Calculated Risk in Geotechnical Engineering[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE,1984,110(2):145-188.
[45]黄火林.基于强度折减的快速拉格朗日差分法在边坡工程中的应用[D].中国地质大学,2007.
[46]谢全敏,李道明,夏元友.顺层滑移型岩质边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J].华东公路,2006,5：95-96.
[47]郑颖人,赵尚毅.有限元强度折减法在土坡和岩坡中的应用[J].岩石力学与上程学报,2004,23(19)：3381-3388.
[48]陈育民,徐鼎平.FLAC/FLAC3D基础与工程实例[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[49]Shou Keh-Jian, Chen, Ying-Liang. Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan[J]. Engineering Geology, Vol.8 No.4 2005.
[50]江凯.有限元强度折减法在某高边坡数值模拟中的应用[J].科技创新导报,2009,12：246.
[51]黄建文,李建林,周宜红.基于AHP的模糊评判法在边坡稳定性评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1)：2627-2632.
[2]陈起俊.工程项目风险分析与管理[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2007.
[3]陈云.边坡风险评估系统及其应用研究[D][硕士论文].重庆大学,2007.
[4]李雷,王仁种等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[5]余建星.工程风险评估与控制[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2009.
[6]铁道部第一勘测设计院.路基[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,1995.
[7]苏毅.山区公路高边坡安全风险评价研究[D][硕士论文].重庆交通大学,2009.
[8]高文志.公路工程风险分析与研究[D][硕士论文].天津大学,2006.
[9]宫志群.地铁盾构区间隧道施工风险分析及评价[D][硕士论文].天津大学,2006.
[10]冯文凯.库岸公路边坡稳定性风险分析[D][博士论文].成都理工大学,2005.
[11]李海光等.新型支挡结构设计与工程实例[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[12]张涵.水底输气隧道施工风险评估[D][硕士论文].西南交通大学,2007.
[13]刘晓娟.浅谈对软弱地基的处理方法及措施[J].技术交流,2010,3：62-65.
[14]王平,刘东升,田强,雷用.地下水作用下挡土墙的稳定性分析[J].地下空间,2001,21(5)：475-479.
[15]陈忠达.公路挡土墙设计[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1999.
[16]陈忠达,王海林.公路挡土墙施工[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[17]夏雄,周德培,王利平,封金财.锚固边坡稳定性因素敏感度分析[J].常州工学院学报,2008,21：99-102.
[18]华昊.高速公路滑坡与高边坡病害的防治[J].河南科技,2010,9：23.
[19]王辉,李莉.高边坡锚固参数敏感度分析[J].公路,2006,4：165-167.
[20]张健,陈玉超.路堑边坡稳定性影响因子的敏感性分析[J].路基工程,2008,5：83-84.
[21]戴志仁,张莎莎,谢永利.岩质边坡参数敏感度数值分析[J].路基工程,2010,3：100-102.
[22]陈文凯.高危边坡灾害防治整治技术措施[J].道路交通与安全,2010,10(2)：41-45.
[23]刘克礼,黄凤姣,张丽新.重力式挡土墙的施工质量问题与防治[J].公路工程与运输,2008,2：80-82.
[24]孟火全.路堑高边坡的防护设计与施工[J].铁道建筑,2003,1：51-52.
[25]武翠香,陈素萍,赵明生,余德运.高速公路路堑开挖爆破安全管理浅谈[J].爆破,2006,23(2)：122-124.
[26]曹小威,张国锋,奚守忠.高路堑节理岩体边坡灾害分析及工程防治措施[J].广东建材,2010,8：25-27.
[27]孙晓东,王丹.水土作用导致土钉支护结构失稳及防治措施分析[J].辽宁建材,2009,11：54-55.
[28]邓志刚.土钉墙施工常见病害的防治[J].西部探矿工程,2006,2：121-122.
[29]汪班桥.土层锚杆常见病害破坏机理及防治技术研究[D].长安大学,2010.
[30]廖增雄,廖增铿.重力式挡土墙的病害及防治[J].中国科技信息,2006,11：104-105.
[31]丁兆锋,吴沛沛.U型槽结构设计与分析[J].铁道工程学报,2009,4：13-16.
[32]王伟力,丁建明,熊燕飞.桩板式挡土墙施工方案设计及技术分析[J].西部交通科技,2008：16-18.
[33]宁万辉,宁健,俞美华,柯传芳.降雨对碎石土边坡稳定性的影响分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(1)：83-84.
[34]刘瑞盛,杨俊池.路堑土质边坡的开挖施工控制[J].广东交通职业技术学院学报,2002,2：43-46.
[35]吴长富,朱向荣,尹小涛,刘雪梅.强降雨条件下土质边坡瞬态稳定性分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(2)：386-391.
[36]韩树成.混凝土U型槽在铁路路堑施工中的防水应用[J].科技情报开发与经济,2010,20(5)：157-159.
[37]Katsuya Okada, Tomoyasu Sugiyama, Hisashi Muraishi, Tatsuo Noguchi, Masahiko Samizo.Statistical Risk Estimating Method for Rainfall on Surface Collapse of a Cut Slope[J]. SOIL AND FOUND ATONS,1994,34(3):49-58.
[38]Tomoyasu SUGIYAMA, Dr Eng.Development of Method for Predicting Railway Embankment Collapse Due to Rased on Disaster Examples.QR of RTRI,1999,40(1): 43-49.
[39]侯化国,王玉民.正交试验法[M].吉林：吉林人民出版社,1985.
[40]姜同川.正交试验设计[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1985.
[41]Morgenstem and Price. The analysis of the Stability of General Slip Surface[J]. Goethenique,1965, (5):84-92
[42]Whitman, R.V. Evaluating Calculated Risk in Geotechnical Engineering[J]. Journal of Gemechnical Engineering ASCE, Vol.110, No.2, pp 145-148,1984.
[43]Fell R. Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1994, (31):261-272.
[44]Whitman, R.V. Evaluating Calculated Risk in Geotechnical Engineering[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE,1984,110(2):145-188.
[45]黄火林.基于强度折减的快速拉格朗日差分法在边坡工程中的应用[D].中国地质大学,2007.
[46]谢全敏,李道明,夏元友.顺层滑移型岩质边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J].华东公路,2006,5：95-96.
[47]郑颖人,赵尚毅.有限元强度折减法在土坡和岩坡中的应用[J].岩石力学与上程学报,2004,23(19)：3381-3388.
[48]陈育民,徐鼎平.FLAC/FLAC3D基础与工程实例[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[49]Shou Keh-Jian, Chen, Ying-Liang. Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan[J]. Engineering Geology, Vol.8 No.4 2005.
[50]江凯.有限元强度折减法在某高边坡数值模拟中的应用[J].科技创新导报,2009,12：246.
[51]黄建文,李建林,周宜红.基于AHP的模糊评判法在边坡稳定性评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1)：2627-2632.