经济增长中能源政策的计算分析
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摘要
能源问题一直是能源可持续发展的核心问题，它对能源政策的制定和经济的可持续发展意义重大。2004年国家制定的《节能中长期专项规划》提出，到2020年GDP指标要在2000年基础上翻两番，而能源消耗只能翻一番的目标。2005年，国家“十一五”规划提出，能源强度在“十一五”期间要降低20％的战略目标。如何实现能源强度降低20％，用翻一番的能源消耗支持翻两番的经济增长。这个问题直接关系到中国的可持续发展，从而引起了学术界广泛的研究，也成为了地球系统科学及地球信息科学的热点问题。
本文首先对增长尾效作了解释，根据我国经济发展的实际情况设置三种情景，从可持续发展意义下经济发展的超长程角度模拟能源消耗对经济增长的影响，进一步分析了水资源和土地的增长尾效。通过能源的加入，探讨了能源利用对水资源和土地的增长尾效的影响。文章着重考查了影响能源尾效的相关因素，结果发现劳动力增长和能源的弹性系数直接影响了能源的增长尾效。另一方面，在增长尾效存在的情况下，对中国未来的经济增长率作出预测，分析了技术进步的增长率应该保持在何种水平上才能实现到2020年中国的人均GDP总量比2000年翻两番的目标。
对于中国来说，严格的宏观经济学问题是，如何确定能源强度与我国经济增长的关系。文章结合内生经济增长理论，根据我国实际情况，在Moon-Sonn模型的基础上进行改进，研究了能源需求产生经济增长的动态机制。从非完全能源进口的开放经济角度，探讨能源强度的最优控制问题，寻求中国的最优的经济均衡增长路径。研究证明，在我国这种混合的能源供应结构下，经济均衡增长率和能源强度存在一种倒U型的关系，在最优均衡增长路径下，能源进口的比例与国际能源价格的乘积应该等于能源的边际效益。进一步，通过求解均衡增长路径上的最优点，得到各种能源强度对应的最佳增长率和储蓄率。面对国家“十一五”规划能源强度降低20％的发展目标的提出，我们模拟显示在考虑国际能源价格变动的情况下，我国的增长率控制在8～8.5％之间是最优的。
最后本文将视角转向人地关系系统角度，分析了我国气候保护政策，分别从CO_2排放控制的效率和成本，情景实现的可能性，减少化石能源需求和污染控制的效率来分析各种气候保护政策的效果。研究同时考虑了能源进口，教育和环境政策对国家经济安全和社会福利的影响，并将污染作为影响效用的因子的，强调了环境的负外部性。研究进一步通过提高教育支出，污染治理和能源进口花费，来分析能源，环境和教育政策对原有结果的影响，政策模拟显示，存在通过实施综合型排放控制措施最终实现明显的CO_2减排和经济增长的双重目标的政策途径。
作为研究背景，文章附录给出了关于经济可持续增长的一些理论研究结果。
The issue of Energy and its' impact to macroeconomic and the social development have been the focus of governments and scientists all over the world. How to find the balance between the economic growth and energy protection? This issue is related directly with sustainable development, so the academia of each country has developed a lot of corresponding research. Nowadays the issue of energy has been an important research object in Geographic Information Science and Earth System Science.
In this paper, three kinds of typical issues of energy and economic growth are studied and discussed, that is: at first, based on the endogenous growth theory, we study the dynamic mechanism in which economic growth generates energy demand. We want to find out the optimal energy intensity so as to get the optimal economic growth rate. Then, we study the growth drag caused by the consumption of energy in economic growth. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the impact of various climate protection strategies, energy importation, environmental and education strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social welfare.
Firstly, the paper examines the concept of the growth drag. Then we set up three kinds of corresponding scenarios to analyze the economic growth drag caused by energy water and land. There is a closed relationship between labor growth and growth drag caused by energy. In the other hand, we simulate the growth rate with the existence of growth drag if we want to reach the target of GDP per capita of 2020 to be four times that of 2000.
To China, we need to identify the relationship between the growth rate and energy intensity. Based on the Moon-Sonn model, we study the dynamic mechanism in which economic growth generates energy demand. We want to find out the optimal energy intensity so as to get the Chinese optimal economic growth rate. The simulation result shows, that the relationship between the growth rate and energy intensity is a reversed U-shape. The proportion of imported energy affects the equilibrium steady-state economic growth rate. We compute the optimal energy intensity to maximize the economic growth rate. The qualitative effect of the increases in energy intensity on economic growth rate is always negative. Especially, we need to analyze the impact of the target of energy intensity of 2020 to be 0.8 times that of 2006 to economy. The simulation result shows, we can coordinate the relationship between Chinese economy and energy economization.
Finally, this paper evaluates the impact of various climate protection, energy importation, environmental and education expenditure strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social
本文首先对增长尾效作了解释，根据我国经济发展的实际情况设置三种情景，从可持续发展意义下经济发展的超长程角度模拟能源消耗对经济增长的影响，进一步分析了水资源和土地的增长尾效。通过能源的加入，探讨了能源利用对水资源和土地的增长尾效的影响。文章着重考查了影响能源尾效的相关因素，结果发现劳动力增长和能源的弹性系数直接影响了能源的增长尾效。另一方面，在增长尾效存在的情况下，对中国未来的经济增长率作出预测，分析了技术进步的增长率应该保持在何种水平上才能实现到2020年中国的人均GDP总量比2000年翻两番的目标。
对于中国来说，严格的宏观经济学问题是，如何确定能源强度与我国经济增长的关系。文章结合内生经济增长理论，根据我国实际情况，在Moon-Sonn模型的基础上进行改进，研究了能源需求产生经济增长的动态机制。从非完全能源进口的开放经济角度，探讨能源强度的最优控制问题，寻求中国的最优的经济均衡增长路径。研究证明，在我国这种混合的能源供应结构下，经济均衡增长率和能源强度存在一种倒U型的关系，在最优均衡增长路径下，能源进口的比例与国际能源价格的乘积应该等于能源的边际效益。进一步，通过求解均衡增长路径上的最优点，得到各种能源强度对应的最佳增长率和储蓄率。面对国家“十一五”规划能源强度降低20％的发展目标的提出，我们模拟显示在考虑国际能源价格变动的情况下，我国的增长率控制在8～8.5％之间是最优的。
最后本文将视角转向人地关系系统角度，分析了我国气候保护政策，分别从CO_2排放控制的效率和成本，情景实现的可能性，减少化石能源需求和污染控制的效率来分析各种气候保护政策的效果。研究同时考虑了能源进口，教育和环境政策对国家经济安全和社会福利的影响，并将污染作为影响效用的因子的，强调了环境的负外部性。研究进一步通过提高教育支出，污染治理和能源进口花费，来分析能源，环境和教育政策对原有结果的影响，政策模拟显示，存在通过实施综合型排放控制措施最终实现明显的CO_2减排和经济增长的双重目标的政策途径。
作为研究背景，文章附录给出了关于经济可持续增长的一些理论研究结果。
The issue of Energy and its' impact to macroeconomic and the social development have been the focus of governments and scientists all over the world. How to find the balance between the economic growth and energy protection? This issue is related directly with sustainable development, so the academia of each country has developed a lot of corresponding research. Nowadays the issue of energy has been an important research object in Geographic Information Science and Earth System Science.
In this paper, three kinds of typical issues of energy and economic growth are studied and discussed, that is: at first, based on the endogenous growth theory, we study the dynamic mechanism in which economic growth generates energy demand. We want to find out the optimal energy intensity so as to get the optimal economic growth rate. Then, we study the growth drag caused by the consumption of energy in economic growth. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the impact of various climate protection strategies, energy importation, environmental and education strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social welfare.
Firstly, the paper examines the concept of the growth drag. Then we set up three kinds of corresponding scenarios to analyze the economic growth drag caused by energy water and land. There is a closed relationship between labor growth and growth drag caused by energy. In the other hand, we simulate the growth rate with the existence of growth drag if we want to reach the target of GDP per capita of 2020 to be four times that of 2000.
To China, we need to identify the relationship between the growth rate and energy intensity. Based on the Moon-Sonn model, we study the dynamic mechanism in which economic growth generates energy demand. We want to find out the optimal energy intensity so as to get the Chinese optimal economic growth rate. The simulation result shows, that the relationship between the growth rate and energy intensity is a reversed U-shape. The proportion of imported energy affects the equilibrium steady-state economic growth rate. We compute the optimal energy intensity to maximize the economic growth rate. The qualitative effect of the increases in energy intensity on economic growth rate is always negative. Especially, we need to analyze the impact of the target of energy intensity of 2020 to be 0.8 times that of 2006 to economy. The simulation result shows, we can coordinate the relationship between Chinese economy and energy economization.
Finally, this paper evaluates the impact of various climate protection, energy importation, environmental and education expenditure strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social
引文
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