综合安全评估在三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船中的应用研究
|
摘要
三峡库区旅游和客货运发展前景广阔,船舶应用气体燃料有地域和供应方面的便利。天然气作为发动机的代用燃料符合国家的环保政策和能源政策。国家“西气东送”工程,将使得天然气作为船舶发动机燃料得到更广泛的应用。燃油“费改税”的实施将会进一步促进天然气燃料的应用。随着对保护大气环境的重视,国家将会对船舶发动机出台更为严格的排放法规。因此,以天然气为主要燃料,以柴油来引燃的双燃料船舶在资源、成本、环保等方面具有显著优势,压缩天然气(compressed natural gas)/柴油双燃料船具有广泛的应用前景。
然而,CNG/柴油双燃料船舶作为一种新型船舶,与其他船舶相比,在防火、防爆等方面更具有特殊性。因技术和管理的不成熟,使得该种船舶在营运过程中存在许多安全隐患。机舱是船舶的心脏,其运行状况的好坏直接决定这船舶营运安全与效率。因此,使用科学的方法对该种船舶机舱进行安全性评价研究,对预防和降低机舱危险具有十分重要的现实意义。
安全评价的目的是提出控制或消除危险,防止事故发生,为确定系统安全目标、制定系统安全规划及实现最优化的系统安全奠定基础。在船舶领域,综合安全评估法是近几年兴起的一种系统化和规范化船舶安全分析方法,其目的是要全面地、综合地考虑影响安全的诸方面因素,通过危险识别、风险评价、费用和收益评价,提出合理的并能有效地控制风险的措施。
本文的主要内容如下:把综合安全评估作为三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价的指导思想,按照综合安全评估的原理步骤,本文主要内容分为三部分:CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱危险识别、危险评价及对安全决策提出建议。(1)危险识别部分:通过对该种船舶机舱的系统分析,从轮机人员因素、机舱设备因素、船舶环境因素和船舶管理因素四方面出发,建立了三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价指标体系;(2)危险评价部分:使用AHP-模糊综合安全评价法建立三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价模型(3)对安全决策提出建议部分:以三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料客渡标准船型为实例,使用AHP-模糊综合安全评价模型对其机舱安全性进行综合安全评价,验证评价模型的可行性,同时分别从评价指标的权重、单因素评判和最终的评定结果三种途径提出对安全决策的建议。
The Three Gorges Reservoir Region traveling and the guest freight transportation prospects for development are broad,the using the gaseous fuel has the region and the supply side convenience for shipping.Natural gas as a kind of motor fuel replacing oil is in line with the state's environmental policy and energy policy; the state project,called "sent to the West-East",will also make gas as a motor fuel to be more widely application;Fuel "tax reform" will further promote the implementation of natural gas applications.Therefore,the vessel of natural gas as the main fuel and diesel oil to ignite in resources,cost,environmental protection,is significantly advantage,and the compressed natural gas(CNG)/diesel dual-fuel ship has a broad application prospects.
However,CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship as one kind of new ship,comparing with other ships,has the particularity in the part of fire protection,explosion-proof and so on.Because of the immature technology and management,this leads to many safety risks during the operation of ships.The engine room is regarded as the heart of the ship,and its running condition will have a direct impact on the ship safety and the shipping efficiency.Therefore,the use of the scientific method to the engine room of the ship to carry out safety assessment study on the prevention and reducing engine room danger is of great practical significance
The purpose of the safe evaluation is to control or eliminate hazards to prevent accidents,to determine system security objectives,the planning and development of safety systems to achieve the optimization of the system to lay the foundation for security.In the ships domain,the formal safety assessment(FSA),which is a systematic and standardized ship safety analysis method that is come out in recent years and whose aim is to take out reasonable and effective risk control measures by a comprehensive,integrated consideration of the various aspects of safety factors through hazard identification,risk evaluation,evaluation of costs and benefits.
The main elements of the paper are as follows:By using the formal safety assessment(FSA)as the guiding ideology of analyzing the safety evaluation of CNG / diesel dual-fuel ship engine room in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,according to the principle of the FSA's steps,the main content of this paper is divided into three parts:the hazard identification,the risk assessment and the decision-making on safety advices of CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship engine room.The hazard identification part: Through the systemic analysis of the ship's engine room from the crew factors,the engine room equipment factors,ship environmental factors and ship management factors,I set up the safety evaluation index system of the CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship engine room of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region;the risk assessment part:I set up the engine room safety assessment model of the CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and confirm the safety evaluation index weight by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method at the same time,and the evaluation model is proved through examples;the decision-making on safety advices:By the CNG/diesel dual fuel standards of ship models in the Three Gorges reservoir area as an example,I validate the feasibility of the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive safety evaluation model in engine room safety.At the same time I advance safety policy recommendations according to the evaluation index weights,the judgments of single-factor and the final judgments.
然而,CNG/柴油双燃料船舶作为一种新型船舶,与其他船舶相比,在防火、防爆等方面更具有特殊性。因技术和管理的不成熟,使得该种船舶在营运过程中存在许多安全隐患。机舱是船舶的心脏,其运行状况的好坏直接决定这船舶营运安全与效率。因此,使用科学的方法对该种船舶机舱进行安全性评价研究,对预防和降低机舱危险具有十分重要的现实意义。
安全评价的目的是提出控制或消除危险,防止事故发生,为确定系统安全目标、制定系统安全规划及实现最优化的系统安全奠定基础。在船舶领域,综合安全评估法是近几年兴起的一种系统化和规范化船舶安全分析方法,其目的是要全面地、综合地考虑影响安全的诸方面因素,通过危险识别、风险评价、费用和收益评价,提出合理的并能有效地控制风险的措施。
本文的主要内容如下:把综合安全评估作为三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价的指导思想,按照综合安全评估的原理步骤,本文主要内容分为三部分:CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱危险识别、危险评价及对安全决策提出建议。(1)危险识别部分:通过对该种船舶机舱的系统分析,从轮机人员因素、机舱设备因素、船舶环境因素和船舶管理因素四方面出发,建立了三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价指标体系;(2)危险评价部分:使用AHP-模糊综合安全评价法建立三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料船机舱安全评价模型(3)对安全决策提出建议部分:以三峡库区CNG/柴油双燃料客渡标准船型为实例,使用AHP-模糊综合安全评价模型对其机舱安全性进行综合安全评价,验证评价模型的可行性,同时分别从评价指标的权重、单因素评判和最终的评定结果三种途径提出对安全决策的建议。
The Three Gorges Reservoir Region traveling and the guest freight transportation prospects for development are broad,the using the gaseous fuel has the region and the supply side convenience for shipping.Natural gas as a kind of motor fuel replacing oil is in line with the state's environmental policy and energy policy; the state project,called "sent to the West-East",will also make gas as a motor fuel to be more widely application;Fuel "tax reform" will further promote the implementation of natural gas applications.Therefore,the vessel of natural gas as the main fuel and diesel oil to ignite in resources,cost,environmental protection,is significantly advantage,and the compressed natural gas(CNG)/diesel dual-fuel ship has a broad application prospects.
However,CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship as one kind of new ship,comparing with other ships,has the particularity in the part of fire protection,explosion-proof and so on.Because of the immature technology and management,this leads to many safety risks during the operation of ships.The engine room is regarded as the heart of the ship,and its running condition will have a direct impact on the ship safety and the shipping efficiency.Therefore,the use of the scientific method to the engine room of the ship to carry out safety assessment study on the prevention and reducing engine room danger is of great practical significance
The purpose of the safe evaluation is to control or eliminate hazards to prevent accidents,to determine system security objectives,the planning and development of safety systems to achieve the optimization of the system to lay the foundation for security.In the ships domain,the formal safety assessment(FSA),which is a systematic and standardized ship safety analysis method that is come out in recent years and whose aim is to take out reasonable and effective risk control measures by a comprehensive,integrated consideration of the various aspects of safety factors through hazard identification,risk evaluation,evaluation of costs and benefits.
The main elements of the paper are as follows:By using the formal safety assessment(FSA)as the guiding ideology of analyzing the safety evaluation of CNG / diesel dual-fuel ship engine room in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,according to the principle of the FSA's steps,the main content of this paper is divided into three parts:the hazard identification,the risk assessment and the decision-making on safety advices of CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship engine room.The hazard identification part: Through the systemic analysis of the ship's engine room from the crew factors,the engine room equipment factors,ship environmental factors and ship management factors,I set up the safety evaluation index system of the CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship engine room of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region;the risk assessment part:I set up the engine room safety assessment model of the CNG/diesel dual-fuel ship in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and confirm the safety evaluation index weight by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method at the same time,and the evaluation model is proved through examples;the decision-making on safety advices:By the CNG/diesel dual fuel standards of ship models in the Three Gorges reservoir area as an example,I validate the feasibility of the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive safety evaluation model in engine room safety.At the same time I advance safety policy recommendations according to the evaluation index weights,the judgments of single-factor and the final judgments.
引文
[1]李世刚.三峡库区水路交通安全应急预案体系研究:[硕士学位论文].湖北:武汉理工大学,2005.11.
[2]申章庆,杨清.车用发动机代用燃料的研究现状及发展趋势.柴油机,2006.2
[3]2006-2007年中国新能源与可再生能源产业发展报告.中国科学院广州能源研究所.2007
[4]洪清珍,詹志刚.船舶柴油机废气排放对大气污染的法律控制及其技术基础.船海工程,2004.1
[5]申章庆,杨清.车用发动机代用燃料的研究现状及发展趋势.柴油机,2006.2
[6]洪清珍,詹志刚.船舶柴油机废气排放对大气污染的法律控制及其技术基础.船海工程,2004.1
[7]江同.柴油-LPG双燃料发动机工作状态的控制及性能研究:[硕士学位论文].浙江:浙江大学,2004.4
[8]斯拉海提.国外车用天然气发动机的开发方向[J].新疆农机化.2001(2):40-43
[9]Office of Transportation and Air Quality.Emission Standards Adopted for New Marine Diesel Engines.Air and Radiation,2003.1
[10]邹高万.机舱火灾热流场特性研究:[博士学位论文].黑龙江:哈尔滨工程大学,2005.10
[11]张圣坤,白勇,唐文勇.船舶与海洋工程风险评估.国防工业出版社.北京 2003.1:39-70
[12]Msc/Cir.829,MEPC/Circ 335.Interim Guidelines for the application of Formal Safety Assessment(FSA)to the IMO Rule-Making Process,17 November 1997
[13]Patrick E.Little,Bruce L.Hutchison.Ro/Ro safety after the Estonia-A report on the activities of the Ad Hoc Panel on Ro/Ro safety.Marine Technology,1995,32(3):159-163
[14]IMO.International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships,1994
[15]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)的应用和发展介绍.1999年3月.
[16]IMO Msc/Circ.1023&MEPC/Circ 392.Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment(FSA)for use in the IMO Rule-Making Process,5 April 2002
[17]FSA of shipping-phase 2adal application to HSC,MCA Y404-D9 summary report
[18]Formal safety assessment of shipping,research project by MCA
[19]Lizheng Wang.Analysis of CNG/diesel oil dual-fuel vessel's accidents based on fault tree analysis method.ICIST:2007.10
[20]DE 4111NF.7,Formal Safety Assessment:Trial application to high speed passenger catamaran vessels.Final report,submitted by the United Kingdom,12 Dcember 1997
[21]Joint Research Project(Asian)Guidance for application of FSA,13 November 2000
[22]G.Baumout,F.Menage.Quantifying human and organizational factors in accident management using decision trees:the HORAAM method.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2000,70:113-124
[23]齐忆洲.双燃料在船柴上的试用和可行性分析.科技信息,2007
[24]马占新,任慧龙.船舶综合安全评估中的评价方法研究.系统工程与电子技术,2002.10
[25]秦庭荣,陈伟炯等.综合安全评价(FSA)方法.中国安全科学学报,2005.4
[26]Christos Alex.Kontovas.Formal Safety Assessment Critical Review and Future Role.[Diploma Thesis]:Athens:2005.7
[27]樊红.船舶综合安全评估＿FSA＿方法研究:[博士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2004.11
[28]上海海事局海事研究室.海事信息参考.2006.12
[29]中国船级社.综合安全评估指南.北京,1999
[30]J.Wang,P.Foinikis.Formal safety assessment of contalnerships.Marine Policy,2001.5:143-157
[31]P.Lois,J.Wang,A.Wall,T.Ruxton.Formal safety assessment of cruise ships.Marine Policy,2002.6:93-109
[32]J.Wang.Offshore safety case approach and formal safetyassessment of ships.Journal of Safety Research,2001.6:81-115
[33]Bernard Papin,Patrick Quellien.The operational complexity index:A new method for the global assessment of the human factor impact on the safety of advanced reactors concepts.Nuclear Engineering and Design,2006:1113-1121
[34]吴彦军.全评估在船舶安全中的应用研究.船舶航泊安全的新经验新技术论文集(上册).辽宁,2007:73-81
[35]江建华.船舶海上应急的综合安全评估(FSA)研究:[硕士学位论文].上海:上海海事大学,2005.6
[36]陈伟炯.船舶航行安全的可持续改善途径.交通运输工程学报,2002.9:115-119
[37]张烁.液化气船液货适装安全风险评估.[硕士学位论文].辽宁:大连海事大学,2005.3
[38]石荣.空中交通管理风险分析系统.[硕士学位论文].天津:中国民航大学,2007.3
[39]郝育国.海运安全评价及港口国监督决策实现研究.[硕士学位论文].上海:上海海事大学,2003.12
[40]李明珂.液化气船航运过程中的综合安全评价研究.[硕士学位论文].辽宁:大连海事大学,2003.6
[41]张仕海,吴建华.金建国.船舶机舱综合安全评估模式探讨.中国航海,2005.2
[42]王海,王雪章,杨建等.综合安全评价在船舶动力装置中的应用.中国航海,2007.1
[43]黄竹.湖南省内河现役货运船舶比选指标体系构建及应用研究.[硕士学位论文].湖北:武汉理工大学,2007.5
[44]李金海,刘辉,赵峻岭.评价方法论研究综述.河北工业大学学报.2004.2:128-134
[45]王肇庚,龚昌奇.运输船舶设备与系统.北京:人民交通出版社,2001.7:171-173
[46]王保国,王新泉,刘淑艳,霍然.安全人机工程学.机械工业出版社.北京,2007.6:311-315
[47]许乐平.船舶(轮机)管理..大连海事大学出版社.辽宁:2000.9
[48]张圣坤,白勇,唐文勇.船舶与海洋工程风险评估.国防工业出版社.北京2003.1:127-136
[2]申章庆,杨清.车用发动机代用燃料的研究现状及发展趋势.柴油机,2006.2
[3]2006-2007年中国新能源与可再生能源产业发展报告.中国科学院广州能源研究所.2007
[4]洪清珍,詹志刚.船舶柴油机废气排放对大气污染的法律控制及其技术基础.船海工程,2004.1
[5]申章庆,杨清.车用发动机代用燃料的研究现状及发展趋势.柴油机,2006.2
[6]洪清珍,詹志刚.船舶柴油机废气排放对大气污染的法律控制及其技术基础.船海工程,2004.1
[7]江同.柴油-LPG双燃料发动机工作状态的控制及性能研究:[硕士学位论文].浙江:浙江大学,2004.4
[8]斯拉海提.国外车用天然气发动机的开发方向[J].新疆农机化.2001(2):40-43
[9]Office of Transportation and Air Quality.Emission Standards Adopted for New Marine Diesel Engines.Air and Radiation,2003.1
[10]邹高万.机舱火灾热流场特性研究:[博士学位论文].黑龙江:哈尔滨工程大学,2005.10
[11]张圣坤,白勇,唐文勇.船舶与海洋工程风险评估.国防工业出版社.北京 2003.1:39-70
[12]Msc/Cir.829,MEPC/Circ 335.Interim Guidelines for the application of Formal Safety Assessment(FSA)to the IMO Rule-Making Process,17 November 1997
[13]Patrick E.Little,Bruce L.Hutchison.Ro/Ro safety after the Estonia-A report on the activities of the Ad Hoc Panel on Ro/Ro safety.Marine Technology,1995,32(3):159-163
[14]IMO.International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships,1994
[15]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)的应用和发展介绍.1999年3月.
[16]IMO Msc/Circ.1023&MEPC/Circ 392.Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment(FSA)for use in the IMO Rule-Making Process,5 April 2002
[17]FSA of shipping-phase 2adal application to HSC,MCA Y404-D9 summary report
[18]Formal safety assessment of shipping,research project by MCA
[19]Lizheng Wang.Analysis of CNG/diesel oil dual-fuel vessel's accidents based on fault tree analysis method.ICIST:2007.10
[20]DE 4111NF.7,Formal Safety Assessment:Trial application to high speed passenger catamaran vessels.Final report,submitted by the United Kingdom,12 Dcember 1997
[21]Joint Research Project(Asian)Guidance for application of FSA,13 November 2000
[22]G.Baumout,F.Menage.Quantifying human and organizational factors in accident management using decision trees:the HORAAM method.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2000,70:113-124
[23]齐忆洲.双燃料在船柴上的试用和可行性分析.科技信息,2007
[24]马占新,任慧龙.船舶综合安全评估中的评价方法研究.系统工程与电子技术,2002.10
[25]秦庭荣,陈伟炯等.综合安全评价(FSA)方法.中国安全科学学报,2005.4
[26]Christos Alex.Kontovas.Formal Safety Assessment Critical Review and Future Role.[Diploma Thesis]:Athens:2005.7
[27]樊红.船舶综合安全评估＿FSA＿方法研究:[博士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2004.11
[28]上海海事局海事研究室.海事信息参考.2006.12
[29]中国船级社.综合安全评估指南.北京,1999
[30]J.Wang,P.Foinikis.Formal safety assessment of contalnerships.Marine Policy,2001.5:143-157
[31]P.Lois,J.Wang,A.Wall,T.Ruxton.Formal safety assessment of cruise ships.Marine Policy,2002.6:93-109
[32]J.Wang.Offshore safety case approach and formal safetyassessment of ships.Journal of Safety Research,2001.6:81-115
[33]Bernard Papin,Patrick Quellien.The operational complexity index:A new method for the global assessment of the human factor impact on the safety of advanced reactors concepts.Nuclear Engineering and Design,2006:1113-1121
[34]吴彦军.全评估在船舶安全中的应用研究.船舶航泊安全的新经验新技术论文集(上册).辽宁,2007:73-81
[35]江建华.船舶海上应急的综合安全评估(FSA)研究:[硕士学位论文].上海:上海海事大学,2005.6
[36]陈伟炯.船舶航行安全的可持续改善途径.交通运输工程学报,2002.9:115-119
[37]张烁.液化气船液货适装安全风险评估.[硕士学位论文].辽宁:大连海事大学,2005.3
[38]石荣.空中交通管理风险分析系统.[硕士学位论文].天津:中国民航大学,2007.3
[39]郝育国.海运安全评价及港口国监督决策实现研究.[硕士学位论文].上海:上海海事大学,2003.12
[40]李明珂.液化气船航运过程中的综合安全评价研究.[硕士学位论文].辽宁:大连海事大学,2003.6
[41]张仕海,吴建华.金建国.船舶机舱综合安全评估模式探讨.中国航海,2005.2
[42]王海,王雪章,杨建等.综合安全评价在船舶动力装置中的应用.中国航海,2007.1
[43]黄竹.湖南省内河现役货运船舶比选指标体系构建及应用研究.[硕士学位论文].湖北:武汉理工大学,2007.5
[44]李金海,刘辉,赵峻岭.评价方法论研究综述.河北工业大学学报.2004.2:128-134
[45]王肇庚,龚昌奇.运输船舶设备与系统.北京:人民交通出版社,2001.7:171-173
[46]王保国,王新泉,刘淑艳,霍然.安全人机工程学.机械工业出版社.北京,2007.6:311-315
[47]许乐平.船舶(轮机)管理..大连海事大学出版社.辽宁:2000.9
[48]张圣坤,白勇,唐文勇.船舶与海洋工程风险评估.国防工业出版社.北京2003.1:127-136