公路桥梁风险评估关键技术研究
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摘要
公路桥梁在发挥巨大社会经济效益的同时,面临的风险问题越来越受到政府和公众的广泛关注。面对越来越多的桥梁事故和趋于增长的生命财产损失,需要结合我国实际情况,完善桥梁风险管理体制,同时制定有效的应对桥梁风险的策略,以达到提高桥梁安全性的目的。本文在国内外已有研究成果的基础上,结合实际公路桥梁风险评估的经验,阐述了公路桥梁风险评估的理论框架,并对风险评估的关键技术进行了研究。主要工作如下:
1、给出了桥梁风险和桥梁风险评估的定义,阐述了桥梁风险的产生过程,分析了桥梁风险评估的内容、流程及风险评估需要的关键技术。
2、开发了公路桥梁风险事故管理系统,为桥梁风险评估工作提供基础性的依据,并对收集的事故信息进行了简单的分析统计,该系统在本文中主要用于辅助完成风险识别工作。
3、提出了风险识别综合法,该方法基于公路桥梁风险事故管理系统统计的风险事故,综合运用资料法、事故树法和检查表法,将客观历史数据与主观的风险评估人员意见相结合,使得桥梁工程的风险识别工作更为全面、深刻。
4、在统一的理论框架下对已有的风险估测基础模型进行了总结和完善;提出将响应面法计算结构可靠度的方法用于定量地求解结构损伤风险概率;改进了传统的德尔菲法,使得在专家意见满足可靠性、一致性和协调性的基础上能够实现高效的风险估测。
5、阐述了桥梁风险评价指标和接受准则,根据风险的水平和风险承担者的风险承受能力,提出按照处置风险方式的不同,将风险应对策略分为三类,即风险回避、风险自留和风险转移,并分析了各种策略的特点和适用条件。
6、最后以一座自锚式悬索桥在地震作用下的结构损伤风险评估为例,说明了本文采用的桥梁风险评估流程及研究的关键技术在桥梁风险评估中的有效性和实用性。
Highway bridges play a significant role in the social and economic benefit, while the risks they may be suffered have been paid more attention to by the government and the public. Facing more and more bridge accidents and the growth of life and property losses, the risk management system of highway bridges needs to be improved while considering the actual situation of our country, and effective risk countermeasures should be developed at the same time to deal with the risks of bridges, so as to achieve the goal of increasing bridge security. Basing on the international research results, the theoretical framework of bridge risk assessment is expatiated combined with practical experience in risk assessment of highway bridges, and key technologies of highway bridges risk assessment were studied in this thesis. Main work has been done is as follows:
1. The definition of bridge risk and bridge risk assessment are given in this thesis, the generation process of bridge risks is expatiated, the content and process of bridge risk assessment and what are the key technologies of bridge risk assessment are analyzed.
2. Highway bridge risk accidents management system (BAMS) was developed to provide the necessary basis for bridges risk assessment, accidents information collected in the system are simply analyzed. The system is used in this thesis to support the completion of risk identification.
3. A comprehensive method that combines data method, fault tree method and check list method also proposed based on BAMS. Objective accidents and subjective risk assessors’opinions are combined together by the synthesis method of risk identification, and it will make the work of bridge risk identification more comprehensive and profound.
4. Existing basic risk estimation models are summarized and improved in a unified framework of theory; response surface method was proposed to structural quantify the risk probability of structural failure; traditional Delphi method is improved to achieve the high efficiency of risk estimation based on the reliability, consistency and coordination of experts’opinions.
5. The detailed bridge risk evaluation and accepted criteria are expatiated; risk countermeasures are classified into three categories by the different ways of dealing with risks based on the risk level and risk tolerance ability of risk bearer, and the characteristics of various strategies and application conditions are described.
6. Finally, a seismic structural damage risk analysis of a self-anchored suspension bridge was carried out as an example to illustrate the process of risk assessment and the effectivity and practicality of the key technologies of bridge risk assessment studied in this thesis.
1、给出了桥梁风险和桥梁风险评估的定义,阐述了桥梁风险的产生过程,分析了桥梁风险评估的内容、流程及风险评估需要的关键技术。
2、开发了公路桥梁风险事故管理系统,为桥梁风险评估工作提供基础性的依据,并对收集的事故信息进行了简单的分析统计,该系统在本文中主要用于辅助完成风险识别工作。
3、提出了风险识别综合法,该方法基于公路桥梁风险事故管理系统统计的风险事故,综合运用资料法、事故树法和检查表法,将客观历史数据与主观的风险评估人员意见相结合,使得桥梁工程的风险识别工作更为全面、深刻。
4、在统一的理论框架下对已有的风险估测基础模型进行了总结和完善;提出将响应面法计算结构可靠度的方法用于定量地求解结构损伤风险概率;改进了传统的德尔菲法,使得在专家意见满足可靠性、一致性和协调性的基础上能够实现高效的风险估测。
5、阐述了桥梁风险评价指标和接受准则,根据风险的水平和风险承担者的风险承受能力,提出按照处置风险方式的不同,将风险应对策略分为三类,即风险回避、风险自留和风险转移,并分析了各种策略的特点和适用条件。
6、最后以一座自锚式悬索桥在地震作用下的结构损伤风险评估为例,说明了本文采用的桥梁风险评估流程及研究的关键技术在桥梁风险评估中的有效性和实用性。
Highway bridges play a significant role in the social and economic benefit, while the risks they may be suffered have been paid more attention to by the government and the public. Facing more and more bridge accidents and the growth of life and property losses, the risk management system of highway bridges needs to be improved while considering the actual situation of our country, and effective risk countermeasures should be developed at the same time to deal with the risks of bridges, so as to achieve the goal of increasing bridge security. Basing on the international research results, the theoretical framework of bridge risk assessment is expatiated combined with practical experience in risk assessment of highway bridges, and key technologies of highway bridges risk assessment were studied in this thesis. Main work has been done is as follows:
1. The definition of bridge risk and bridge risk assessment are given in this thesis, the generation process of bridge risks is expatiated, the content and process of bridge risk assessment and what are the key technologies of bridge risk assessment are analyzed.
2. Highway bridge risk accidents management system (BAMS) was developed to provide the necessary basis for bridges risk assessment, accidents information collected in the system are simply analyzed. The system is used in this thesis to support the completion of risk identification.
3. A comprehensive method that combines data method, fault tree method and check list method also proposed based on BAMS. Objective accidents and subjective risk assessors’opinions are combined together by the synthesis method of risk identification, and it will make the work of bridge risk identification more comprehensive and profound.
4. Existing basic risk estimation models are summarized and improved in a unified framework of theory; response surface method was proposed to structural quantify the risk probability of structural failure; traditional Delphi method is improved to achieve the high efficiency of risk estimation based on the reliability, consistency and coordination of experts’opinions.
5. The detailed bridge risk evaluation and accepted criteria are expatiated; risk countermeasures are classified into three categories by the different ways of dealing with risks based on the risk level and risk tolerance ability of risk bearer, and the characteristics of various strategies and application conditions are described.
6. Finally, a seismic structural damage risk analysis of a self-anchored suspension bridge was carried out as an example to illustrate the process of risk assessment and the effectivity and practicality of the key technologies of bridge risk assessment studied in this thesis.
引文
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[3]耿波,桥梁船撞安全评估:[博士学位论文],上海;同济大学,2007
[4]付涛,王君杰,桥梁船撞风险分析与对策研究,公路工程,2009,34(4):85~93
[5] Ehrihed KOELZ, Priorities in earthquake upgrading of existing inventories, Safe, risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering,Malta:IABSE, 2001,333~338
[6] Miyamoto,Kaneyoshi, Seismic Damage Evaluation System for Bridge Structures, Safe, risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001,131~136
[7]吴振营,桥梁结构体系运营期风险评估方法研究:[硕士学位论文],湖南;中南大学,2008
[8] Binbin Wang, Wancheng Yuan, Risk- and Performance-based Seismic Analysis forLong-span Cable-stayed Bridges, TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment, 2009,1~12
[9] REHAN A. KHAN,TUSHAR K. DATTA, Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Fan Type CableStayed Bridges Against Earthquake Forces, Journal of Vibration and Control, 2010, 16(6): 779~799
[10]刘志文,陈艾荣,强风作用下桥梁风险分析与评估,第十一届全国结构风工程学术会议论文集,2004,345~350
[11]袁鑫,大跨度刚构桥施工阶段风险分析:[硕士学位论文],陕西;长安大学,2009
[12] Louis-Guy CAJOT,Jean-BaPtiste SCHLEICH, Natural fire safety for building, Safe, risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001,765~770
[13] The 0resund link contract No.3a bridge design requirement
[14] Piere Trouillet, Fire Consequence on motorway bridges, Safety, Risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001, 489~494
[15]阮欣、陈艾荣、石雪飞,大跨径桥梁施工期间结构强健性的风险评估研究,中国公路学会桥梁和结构工程分会2005年全国桥梁学术会议,中国公路学会,2005,659~664
[16]巩春领,大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究:[博士学位论文],上海;同济大学,2006
[17]张杰,大跨度桥梁施工期风险分析方法研究:[博士学位论文],上海;同济大学,2007
[18]阮欣,陈艾荣,欧阳效勇等,超大跨径斜拉桥索塔施工期间风险评估与风险管理,桥梁建设,2008,25(2):74~77
[19] ParagDAS, Michael GIBBS, Vehicle collision loading criteria for bridge piers and parapets, Safety,Risk,Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001, 249~254
[20] Zenonas Kamaitis, Risk of accidents due to vehicle bridge collision, Safety, Risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001, 753~758
[21] R.G.Sexsmith,S.G.Reid, Safety factors for bridge falsework by risk management, Struetural safety, 2003, 25(7):227~243
[22] Piere TROUILLET, Fire Consequence on motorway bridges, Safety, Risk, Reliability-Trends in engineering, Malta:IABSE, 2001, 489~494
[23]颜文华,陆建,特大桥梁危险品运输风险分析及防范措施研究,公路工程与运输,2009,8(1):17~21
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