吉林省城市化发展与水资源可持续利用研究
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摘要
为了实现吉林省城市化与水资源的“和谐”发展,本文通过对城市化发展及水资源可持续利用相关理论的研究,探讨了城市化发展与水资源持续利用的理论关系。通过对吉林省的城市化进程、水资源利用情况历史数据的收集、整理和分析,得出了二者之间定性和定量的关系。在此基础之上,对吉林省各地区未来人口及城市化发展进行了预测。根据所预测的结果,利用系统动力学方法,对在现行用水模式下,未来吉林省水资源能否支撑城市化的快速发展进行了分析。根据所发现的问题,应用循环经济理论,按照“3R”的原则,提出了吉林省实现水资源循环经济的途径,并建立了水资源循环经济系统动力学模型,对吉林省各地区未来的需水情况进行了预测。通过对预测结果的分析、对比,结果表明在科学发展观指导下,建立水资源循环经济模式是吉林省实现水资源可持续利用的有效途径,并可为吉林省的经济腾飞提供有力保障。
With the rapid development of economy and society, our country's 21st century economic growth will continue to face many severe challenges, such as the issue of population, resource depletion and environmental degradation. Resources and environment is the particularly serious one of these problems. And it has been a constraint on economic development. Water resources are the most basic necessary and material for human survival and social progress. The quantity and quality of water resources is directly related to long-standing and stable development of our economy and society. Jilin Province is China's important industrial base and production base of commodity grain. Automobile, petrochemical and agricultural products processing are the pillar industries. Jilin Province is taking on the important tasks of National food security and the revitalization of old industrial bases. It is necessary to ensure water supply for agricultural irrigation, and also for the urbanization and fast industrial progress. Per capita water resources in Jilin Province was significantly lower than the national average, belong to a serious water shortage province. Coupled with the characteristics of the distribution of its water resources, water use in Jilin province has led to many problems. The inter-relationship between water resources and urbanization progress shows that it is necessary to solve the problems of the water resources utilization of Jilin Province, in order to achieve a sustained social and economic development. Therefore making well relationship between urbanization and water resources utilization, achieving sustainable utilization of water resources is an important theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the research of the urbanization theory and water resources sustainable utilization theory, the article sets up a theoretical framework of urbanization and water resources sustainable utilization separately from the effect and impact of economic growth, industrial structure, urban development and urban population growth.
Through the collection and analysis of the data included the process of urbanization and the history of the utilization of water resources in Jilin Province, the article made a conclusion that the urbanization of Jilin Province in 21st century, is in process of accelerated growth phase in urbanization "S" curve, and will keeping this trend for a long period of time. This matches the stage of industrialization development of Jilin Province, and also shows that the industrialization and urbanization in Jilin Province are on a healthy track. At the same time, water consumption in Jilin Province has been simultaneous growth over the past few decades.
Comparison of historical data can show that urbanization of Jilin Province increased the total water consumption, industrial water consumption and urban life water consumption. Using of correlation analysis on the urbanization and water consumption data, correlation mathematical models can been setted up between urbanization and water consumption, industrial water consumption, urban life water consumption. Through these logarithm or power function models, we can get the quantitative relationship between urbanization and water consumption. Some of the quantified relationships are as below:
The level of urbanization increased by 1 percentage point each, the total water consumption has increased nearly 200 million cubic meters, industrial water consumption increased more than 300 million cubic meters, the urban life water consumption increased by about 150 million cubic meters.
Inadequate water supply will restrict the development of urbanization. While there has 100 million cubic meters of water shortage, the urbanization rate in Jilin Province will decrease about 0.3 percentage points. While there has 100 million cubic meters of industrial water shortage, urbanization will has a 0.2 percentage point lower. While there has 100 million cubic meters of urban life water shortage, urbanization will decrease 0.5 percentage points.
Therefore, in accordance with the existing pattern of water utilization, the future urbanization development of Jilin province will bring the rapid increase in water consumption. Once there is a shortage of water resources will constrain urbanization in Jilin Province to further improve.
In order to predict the population and urbanization rate of Jilin Province, the article analyzed the features of gray prediction model, and selected the verhulst gray model to predict the population of Jilin province. The verhulst model takes into account more fully the circumstances have restricted the development of the category index, can be used to carry out population projections predict the outcome of population growth in line with the type of "S" curve process. The prediction of the model is that population growth of Jilin province is not a serious problem, and population growth rate remains at a relatively low level and declining year after year. By year 2050, the total population in Jilin Province is about 29.46 million people, a 2,660,000 people increase than year 2006, and the population growth rate will fall to 1.58‰. Changchun is the main area of significant population growth; in 2050 its total population will reach 9.89 million, an increase of 2.49 million people. The population growth rates of other regions are very small, basic maintenance of "zero growth."
Through analysis and comparison of several commonly used urbanization prediction methods, the article selects some of them using 1992 to 2003 data to predict the urbanization rates of China. After compared the result with the 2004-2006 actual urbanization rates, the article finds that one linear regression model is the most accurate and most suitable in the current stage of development of urbanization in China. So choose the method of linear regression, the article set up a model of prediction urbanization rates of various regions in Jilin Province.
From the prediction, we can know the future urbanization rates of Jilin Province will maintain sustained and rapid development, and urbanization rate of the overall Jilin Province in 2050 is at 64%. However, because the article uses of non-agricultural population data, not the actual urban population, so the result is kind of low. According to census the urban population and the non-agricultural populations, in 2050 the Jilin Province urbanization rate should be over 70%.
In order to study the future water resources demand, while the urbanization continued to improve and whether the water resources can meet the rapid development of the society and economy, the article analyzed existing water-use patterns of Jilin province, and used of system dynamics method, sets up a system dynamics model for water demand prediction. The model uses the results of previous quantitative analysis and system dynamics specific feedback mechanism. It can predict the future water demand in Jilin Province, as well as the influences of water shortage for social and economic development. The conclusions are as follows:
①In the current water utilize pattern, there will be a rapid water demand increase in the future of Jilin province. And only the water resources of Yanbian, Baishan and Tonghua regions can meet socio-economic development, while other areas will be in a dry state. Therefore in accordance with the present the water utilizing model, the water resources in Jilin Province will not be able to meet the needs of rapid social and economic development.
②The feedback mechanism shows that the social and economic development in the 6 water shortage regions have been severely affected by water shortage situation. The level of urbanization, industrial output, agricultural irrigation in these regions are low than in normal circumstances. To Changchun as an example, the prediction results show that the urbanization rate in 2050 was 56.7%, lower than the normal level 10 percentage points; Changchun industrial output in 2050 is estimated to be 92.5 billion Yuan, much lower than that in normal development of 231 billion Yuan; in 2050 in Changchun agricultural 127,200 hectares irrigated area, is not only lower than normal level of development of 465,000 hectares, but also lower than the current irrigated area of 236,000 hectares. Therefore, the lack of water for socio-economic development in these areas has had a significant impact.
Therefore, in order to avoid these problems in future, to achieve sustainable use of water resources, the current water utilizing mode of Jilin Province must be adjusted. Use of recycling economic theory, in accordance with the "reduction, reuse, recycle" principle, the article analysis the methods that Jilin Province could realize the water resources recycling economy. Made the following major measures: conservation of water under the guidance of the water price adjusting, implementation of reduction of water use; to develop the resources of water reuse, including water sewage system, as well as society at all levels water sewage systems, implementation of water reuse, recycle; utilization of rainwater resources, the implementation of socio-economic system and the recycling of natural systems.
In accordance with the above measures, the article sets up a new water resources recycling economy system dynamics model by optimizing the previous water demand model, increased the water conservation under the guidance of water price, wastewater reuse, rainwater utilization modules. Application the model to Jilin Province shows that the water resources in most parts of Jilin Province can meet the rapid development of the social and economy.
In water recycling economy mode, the future water demand of Jilin Province is as follows:①water demands will be at peak around year 2034. The total water demand is 176 million cubic meters, and water resources utilization rate is 47%. In year 2036, the total water demands begins to decline, to the year 2050, the total water demands drop to 14.6 billion cubic meters.②In the future, industrial water demand will rise as the first major use of water, while industrial water demand in 2036 declines, but by 2050 its proportion is still 51%. Agricultural water demand shows a continued downward trend, its proportion drops from 61% in 2010 to 27% in 2050. Urban life water demand proportion is increasing from 7% in 2010 to 16% in 2050. Another ecological water demand increasing its proportion in the total proportion of water demands rises from 2% in 2010 to 4% in 2050.③The eastern regions of Jilin Province have substantial surplus of water resources, such as Baishan, Yanbian 's largest water resources utilizations are less than 10%. The relative scarcity of water resources are in the central and western regions, their utilization of water resources more than 90%. And Siping, Songyuan will become water shortage; the largest water shortage volume of Songyuan is 1.49 billion cubic meters, 256 million cubic meters for Siping. These shortages can be solved by the existing water conservancy projects such as Hadashan Dam Project.
The results show that the recycling economic model can effectively reduce water demand and pressure on the ecological environment. By compared with water utilization of the United States, the recycling economy mode is availability way to sustainable utilization of water resources.
The article analyzes benefits of water resources recycling economy for environment, economy and society, and gets the result that recycling economy of water resources is an effective way of sustainable water utilization of Jilin province. Finally, the article gives the countermeasures and proposals for Jilin Province to promote recycling economy of water resources.
With the rapid development of economy and society, our country's 21st century economic growth will continue to face many severe challenges, such as the issue of population, resource depletion and environmental degradation. Resources and environment is the particularly serious one of these problems. And it has been a constraint on economic development. Water resources are the most basic necessary and material for human survival and social progress. The quantity and quality of water resources is directly related to long-standing and stable development of our economy and society. Jilin Province is China's important industrial base and production base of commodity grain. Automobile, petrochemical and agricultural products processing are the pillar industries. Jilin Province is taking on the important tasks of National food security and the revitalization of old industrial bases. It is necessary to ensure water supply for agricultural irrigation, and also for the urbanization and fast industrial progress. Per capita water resources in Jilin Province was significantly lower than the national average, belong to a serious water shortage province. Coupled with the characteristics of the distribution of its water resources, water use in Jilin province has led to many problems. The inter-relationship between water resources and urbanization progress shows that it is necessary to solve the problems of the water resources utilization of Jilin Province, in order to achieve a sustained social and economic development. Therefore making well relationship between urbanization and water resources utilization, achieving sustainable utilization of water resources is an important theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the research of the urbanization theory and water resources sustainable utilization theory, the article sets up a theoretical framework of urbanization and water resources sustainable utilization separately from the effect and impact of economic growth, industrial structure, urban development and urban population growth.
Through the collection and analysis of the data included the process of urbanization and the history of the utilization of water resources in Jilin Province, the article made a conclusion that the urbanization of Jilin Province in 21st century, is in process of accelerated growth phase in urbanization "S" curve, and will keeping this trend for a long period of time. This matches the stage of industrialization development of Jilin Province, and also shows that the industrialization and urbanization in Jilin Province are on a healthy track. At the same time, water consumption in Jilin Province has been simultaneous growth over the past few decades.
Comparison of historical data can show that urbanization of Jilin Province increased the total water consumption, industrial water consumption and urban life water consumption. Using of correlation analysis on the urbanization and water consumption data, correlation mathematical models can been setted up between urbanization and water consumption, industrial water consumption, urban life water consumption. Through these logarithm or power function models, we can get the quantitative relationship between urbanization and water consumption. Some of the quantified relationships are as below:
The level of urbanization increased by 1 percentage point each, the total water consumption has increased nearly 200 million cubic meters, industrial water consumption increased more than 300 million cubic meters, the urban life water consumption increased by about 150 million cubic meters.
Inadequate water supply will restrict the development of urbanization. While there has 100 million cubic meters of water shortage, the urbanization rate in Jilin Province will decrease about 0.3 percentage points. While there has 100 million cubic meters of industrial water shortage, urbanization will has a 0.2 percentage point lower. While there has 100 million cubic meters of urban life water shortage, urbanization will decrease 0.5 percentage points.
Therefore, in accordance with the existing pattern of water utilization, the future urbanization development of Jilin province will bring the rapid increase in water consumption. Once there is a shortage of water resources will constrain urbanization in Jilin Province to further improve.
In order to predict the population and urbanization rate of Jilin Province, the article analyzed the features of gray prediction model, and selected the verhulst gray model to predict the population of Jilin province. The verhulst model takes into account more fully the circumstances have restricted the development of the category index, can be used to carry out population projections predict the outcome of population growth in line with the type of "S" curve process. The prediction of the model is that population growth of Jilin province is not a serious problem, and population growth rate remains at a relatively low level and declining year after year. By year 2050, the total population in Jilin Province is about 29.46 million people, a 2,660,000 people increase than year 2006, and the population growth rate will fall to 1.58‰. Changchun is the main area of significant population growth; in 2050 its total population will reach 9.89 million, an increase of 2.49 million people. The population growth rates of other regions are very small, basic maintenance of "zero growth."
Through analysis and comparison of several commonly used urbanization prediction methods, the article selects some of them using 1992 to 2003 data to predict the urbanization rates of China. After compared the result with the 2004-2006 actual urbanization rates, the article finds that one linear regression model is the most accurate and most suitable in the current stage of development of urbanization in China. So choose the method of linear regression, the article set up a model of prediction urbanization rates of various regions in Jilin Province.
From the prediction, we can know the future urbanization rates of Jilin Province will maintain sustained and rapid development, and urbanization rate of the overall Jilin Province in 2050 is at 64%. However, because the article uses of non-agricultural population data, not the actual urban population, so the result is kind of low. According to census the urban population and the non-agricultural populations, in 2050 the Jilin Province urbanization rate should be over 70%.
In order to study the future water resources demand, while the urbanization continued to improve and whether the water resources can meet the rapid development of the society and economy, the article analyzed existing water-use patterns of Jilin province, and used of system dynamics method, sets up a system dynamics model for water demand prediction. The model uses the results of previous quantitative analysis and system dynamics specific feedback mechanism. It can predict the future water demand in Jilin Province, as well as the influences of water shortage for social and economic development. The conclusions are as follows:
①In the current water utilize pattern, there will be a rapid water demand increase in the future of Jilin province. And only the water resources of Yanbian, Baishan and Tonghua regions can meet socio-economic development, while other areas will be in a dry state. Therefore in accordance with the present the water utilizing model, the water resources in Jilin Province will not be able to meet the needs of rapid social and economic development.
②The feedback mechanism shows that the social and economic development in the 6 water shortage regions have been severely affected by water shortage situation. The level of urbanization, industrial output, agricultural irrigation in these regions are low than in normal circumstances. To Changchun as an example, the prediction results show that the urbanization rate in 2050 was 56.7%, lower than the normal level 10 percentage points; Changchun industrial output in 2050 is estimated to be 92.5 billion Yuan, much lower than that in normal development of 231 billion Yuan; in 2050 in Changchun agricultural 127,200 hectares irrigated area, is not only lower than normal level of development of 465,000 hectares, but also lower than the current irrigated area of 236,000 hectares. Therefore, the lack of water for socio-economic development in these areas has had a significant impact.
Therefore, in order to avoid these problems in future, to achieve sustainable use of water resources, the current water utilizing mode of Jilin Province must be adjusted. Use of recycling economic theory, in accordance with the "reduction, reuse, recycle" principle, the article analysis the methods that Jilin Province could realize the water resources recycling economy. Made the following major measures: conservation of water under the guidance of the water price adjusting, implementation of reduction of water use; to develop the resources of water reuse, including water sewage system, as well as society at all levels water sewage systems, implementation of water reuse, recycle; utilization of rainwater resources, the implementation of socio-economic system and the recycling of natural systems.
In accordance with the above measures, the article sets up a new water resources recycling economy system dynamics model by optimizing the previous water demand model, increased the water conservation under the guidance of water price, wastewater reuse, rainwater utilization modules. Application the model to Jilin Province shows that the water resources in most parts of Jilin Province can meet the rapid development of the social and economy.
In water recycling economy mode, the future water demand of Jilin Province is as follows:①water demands will be at peak around year 2034. The total water demand is 176 million cubic meters, and water resources utilization rate is 47%. In year 2036, the total water demands begins to decline, to the year 2050, the total water demands drop to 14.6 billion cubic meters.②In the future, industrial water demand will rise as the first major use of water, while industrial water demand in 2036 declines, but by 2050 its proportion is still 51%. Agricultural water demand shows a continued downward trend, its proportion drops from 61% in 2010 to 27% in 2050. Urban life water demand proportion is increasing from 7% in 2010 to 16% in 2050. Another ecological water demand increasing its proportion in the total proportion of water demands rises from 2% in 2010 to 4% in 2050.③The eastern regions of Jilin Province have substantial surplus of water resources, such as Baishan, Yanbian 's largest water resources utilizations are less than 10%. The relative scarcity of water resources are in the central and western regions, their utilization of water resources more than 90%. And Siping, Songyuan will become water shortage; the largest water shortage volume of Songyuan is 1.49 billion cubic meters, 256 million cubic meters for Siping. These shortages can be solved by the existing water conservancy projects such as Hadashan Dam Project.
The results show that the recycling economic model can effectively reduce water demand and pressure on the ecological environment. By compared with water utilization of the United States, the recycling economy mode is availability way to sustainable utilization of water resources.
The article analyzes benefits of water resources recycling economy for environment, economy and society, and gets the result that recycling economy of water resources is an effective way of sustainable water utilization of Jilin province. Finally, the article gives the countermeasures and proposals for Jilin Province to promote recycling economy of water resources.
引文
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