供应链风险传递及其控制研究
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摘要
近几年来供应链风险爆发带来的灾难性后果,使供应链风险传递成为迫切研究课题。目前文献对供应链风险研究颇多,但对供应链风险传递研究甚少。事实上,供应链企业非常希望能得到有效而系统的控制风险传递的理论指导。有鉴于此,本文选择供应链风险传递与控制进行分析和探讨,为企业提供理论参考和实践指导。
在文献梳理基础上,本研究沿着供应链风险传递的相关理论—基本概念界定—风险能量测度—传递过程分析—传递路径总结—提出控制策略为逻辑主线,运用系统论、系统动力学等理论,采用定性和定量、系统研究与重点研究相结合,确定本研究由七章构成,具体内容如下：
第一章主要在梳理国内外供应链风险相关文献的基础上,对选择该研究目的和意义进行了简要说明。
第二章总结了支撑该研究顺利进行所需的相关基本理论。分两部分：其一是基本概念的界定例如供应链、供应链管理、风险、风险管理、供应链风险传递等；其二是对企业风险预警的总结例如风险预警方法、预警模型、预警系统的分析。
第三章构建了供应链风险传递能量测度的矢量分析模型。通过界定供应链风险流、风险流密度概念,从经济损失、产品功能损失和声誉损失三个维度构建了供应链风险传递能量的矢量模型。
第四章揭示了供应链风险传递的过程。通过研究发现：供应链风险爆发经历了风险导入潜伏期、酝酿扩散期、爆发期和消退期四个基本阶段；诱发供应链风险传递的主要原因有节点企业间的利益摩擦、节点企业的独立经营决策及节点企业的“委托—代理”关系三类；供应链风险传递的主要形式为扩散。
第五章提出了供应链风险传递的三种基本路径。按风险在供应链内部传递的方向为标准,将供应链风险传递的路径分为串联式传递、雷达式传递和交互传递三种,并对每种传递路径的特征和能量大小进行了推导。
第六章探讨了供应链风险传递各阶段应采取的措施。以供应链风险传递的4个阶段为基础,明确了控制供应链风险传递的基本管理措施由预防、预警和控制三步完成。
第七章基于全文供应链风险传递的诱因、传递过程,结合案例进行分析。
第八章总结归纳全文,并指出了该研究还需继续深入探讨的问题。
In recent years, the flare-up of supply chain risk brough disastous consequences, which accelerates the supply chain risk transmission be an urgent research topics. So far, the research literatures on the supply chain riks are many. But the materials about the supply chain risk transmission are very few. Actually, the supply chain enterprises would like to look for some systematic and effective theories to guide their conduct. Therefore, this dissertation chooses the supply chain risk transmission and control as the research topic. This will be a theoretical tool and practical guidance for the supply chain enterprises to manage the risk.
Based on the exited research, along with the logistic route of the theory of supply chain risk transmission--the defination of basic conceptions--measurement of risk energy--analysis of transmission path—proposal of control strategies, using the system theory and system dynamic integrating with the quality and quantity, system research and key research, this dissertation consists of seven chapters as the following.
In chaper one, the history research of supply chain risk in china and abroad is reviewed. The purpose and the significance of this dissertation are introduced briefly.
In chapter two, the basic theory relating to this dissertation is analyzed. Two main contents are included. One is some definitions of basic conceptions such as supply chain, supply chain management, risk, risk management, supply chian risk transmission. The other one is summary of enterprises risk warning such as the methods of enterprises early-warning, early-warning model and early-warning system.
In chapter three, the vector model about the risk energy of supply chain transmission is constructed. By defining supply chain risk current and density of risk flow volume, the vector model about the risk energy of supply chain transmission is constructed. In this model, three vector components are included. They are economics loss, function loss of the product and reputation loss of enterprises.
In chapter four, the process of supply chain risk transmission is revealed. Three results are showed in this part. The flare-up of supply chain risk experienced four stages which are risk introduction, risk pervasion, risk flare-up and risk regression. The major causes of supply chain risk transmission are three which are interest conflicts among the node enterprises, independed decisions of node enterprises and principal-agency among the enterprises. The main form of the supply chain risk transmission is the diffusion.
In chapter five, three paths of supply chain risk transmission are proposed. According to the direction of supply chain risk transmission, three transmission paths can be divided. They are series transmission, rader transmission and interactive transmission.
In chapter six, the countermeasures corresponding to the each stage of the supply chain risk transmission are discussed. Based on the four stages of supply chain risk transmission, the specific countermeasures are put forwarded. Three steps are followed to prevent the supply chain risk flare-up. They are pre-control risk, early-warning risk and control risk.
Based on the study about the inducement and transmission process of supply chain risk above, the seventh chapter mainly is the case study.
The last chapter is the summary of the dissertation. Also, the further studies are pointed out.
在文献梳理基础上,本研究沿着供应链风险传递的相关理论—基本概念界定—风险能量测度—传递过程分析—传递路径总结—提出控制策略为逻辑主线,运用系统论、系统动力学等理论,采用定性和定量、系统研究与重点研究相结合,确定本研究由七章构成,具体内容如下：
第一章主要在梳理国内外供应链风险相关文献的基础上,对选择该研究目的和意义进行了简要说明。
第二章总结了支撑该研究顺利进行所需的相关基本理论。分两部分：其一是基本概念的界定例如供应链、供应链管理、风险、风险管理、供应链风险传递等；其二是对企业风险预警的总结例如风险预警方法、预警模型、预警系统的分析。
第三章构建了供应链风险传递能量测度的矢量分析模型。通过界定供应链风险流、风险流密度概念,从经济损失、产品功能损失和声誉损失三个维度构建了供应链风险传递能量的矢量模型。
第四章揭示了供应链风险传递的过程。通过研究发现：供应链风险爆发经历了风险导入潜伏期、酝酿扩散期、爆发期和消退期四个基本阶段；诱发供应链风险传递的主要原因有节点企业间的利益摩擦、节点企业的独立经营决策及节点企业的“委托—代理”关系三类；供应链风险传递的主要形式为扩散。
第五章提出了供应链风险传递的三种基本路径。按风险在供应链内部传递的方向为标准,将供应链风险传递的路径分为串联式传递、雷达式传递和交互传递三种,并对每种传递路径的特征和能量大小进行了推导。
第六章探讨了供应链风险传递各阶段应采取的措施。以供应链风险传递的4个阶段为基础,明确了控制供应链风险传递的基本管理措施由预防、预警和控制三步完成。
第七章基于全文供应链风险传递的诱因、传递过程,结合案例进行分析。
第八章总结归纳全文,并指出了该研究还需继续深入探讨的问题。
In recent years, the flare-up of supply chain risk brough disastous consequences, which accelerates the supply chain risk transmission be an urgent research topics. So far, the research literatures on the supply chain riks are many. But the materials about the supply chain risk transmission are very few. Actually, the supply chain enterprises would like to look for some systematic and effective theories to guide their conduct. Therefore, this dissertation chooses the supply chain risk transmission and control as the research topic. This will be a theoretical tool and practical guidance for the supply chain enterprises to manage the risk.
Based on the exited research, along with the logistic route of the theory of supply chain risk transmission--the defination of basic conceptions--measurement of risk energy--analysis of transmission path—proposal of control strategies, using the system theory and system dynamic integrating with the quality and quantity, system research and key research, this dissertation consists of seven chapters as the following.
In chaper one, the history research of supply chain risk in china and abroad is reviewed. The purpose and the significance of this dissertation are introduced briefly.
In chapter two, the basic theory relating to this dissertation is analyzed. Two main contents are included. One is some definitions of basic conceptions such as supply chain, supply chain management, risk, risk management, supply chian risk transmission. The other one is summary of enterprises risk warning such as the methods of enterprises early-warning, early-warning model and early-warning system.
In chapter three, the vector model about the risk energy of supply chain transmission is constructed. By defining supply chain risk current and density of risk flow volume, the vector model about the risk energy of supply chain transmission is constructed. In this model, three vector components are included. They are economics loss, function loss of the product and reputation loss of enterprises.
In chapter four, the process of supply chain risk transmission is revealed. Three results are showed in this part. The flare-up of supply chain risk experienced four stages which are risk introduction, risk pervasion, risk flare-up and risk regression. The major causes of supply chain risk transmission are three which are interest conflicts among the node enterprises, independed decisions of node enterprises and principal-agency among the enterprises. The main form of the supply chain risk transmission is the diffusion.
In chapter five, three paths of supply chain risk transmission are proposed. According to the direction of supply chain risk transmission, three transmission paths can be divided. They are series transmission, rader transmission and interactive transmission.
In chapter six, the countermeasures corresponding to the each stage of the supply chain risk transmission are discussed. Based on the four stages of supply chain risk transmission, the specific countermeasures are put forwarded. Three steps are followed to prevent the supply chain risk flare-up. They are pre-control risk, early-warning risk and control risk.
Based on the study about the inducement and transmission process of supply chain risk above, the seventh chapter mainly is the case study.
The last chapter is the summary of the dissertation. Also, the further studies are pointed out.
引文
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