开放型经济下江苏现代服务业主导产业选择研究
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摘要
服务业已逐渐成为世界各国和地区经济发展抢占的制高点,发展服务业是转变经济增长方式、实现产业结构升级的一个重要方面。发达国家无不把发展现代服务业作为其产业发展的战略重点和保持经济竞争力的重要任务。在我国,“现代服务业”这一概念是在1997年党的十五大报告中提出的,之后现代服务业被广泛使用,现代服务业已经成为研究的热点问题。2010年,江苏省服务业在国民经济中的比重仅为41.4%,低于同类省市的水平,甚至低于全国平均水平(2010年这一数据为43.1%)。因此正确选择现阶段江苏省现代服务业主导产业对推进江苏现代服务业的全面发展有重要现实意义。
本文在综述国内外有关现代服务业发展和主导产业选择的研究成果基础上,对现代服务业的内涵特征及分类、现代服务业主导产业选择基准和影响因素进行了理论分析。现代服务业主导产业的选择基准主要有赫希曼基准、筱原基准、动态比较优势基准、协同发展基准和社会贡献基准。影响因素主要有需求动力(需求规模、需求增速和需求收入弹性)、生产要素投入(核心要素投入和一般要素的投入)、产业间互动作用(现代服务业产业间关联度以及现代服务业与制造业间的关联度)、产业竞争力、对社会创造的贡献大小以及政府政策的导向等。并从多个视角即江苏现代服务业结构变化、现代服务业对外发展情况以及江浙沪现代服务业发展状况对比来描述江苏现代服务业的发展现状。然后结合前人研究成果和现代服务业主导产业选择的影响因素构建了由需求动力、生产要素投入、产业关联度、产业竞争力、社会贡献五个一级指标和20各二级指标构成的现代服务业主导产业选择指标体系。运用层次分析法对江苏现代服务业展开评价,并辅之主成分分析用于检验层次分析法所得结果的科学性,再运用聚类分析得到：房地产业、金融业、教育、交通运输/仓储和邮政业、租赁和商务服务业综合表现良好,但依据现行政策导向,剔除房地产业后将其余四类作为现阶段应大力发展的现代服务业主导产业。又进一步根据江浙沪现代服务业竞争力的对比结果,得到具有一定发展潜力,可以作为江苏省未来某一时期主导产业的备选产业——科学研究/技术服务和地质勘查业、水利/环境和公共设施管理业、卫生/社会保障和社会福利业三个产业。在此基础上,提出了发展江苏现代服务业主导产业的对策建议。
Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2009. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage.
Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2010. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage. On basis of reviewing relevant research on the development of modern service industry and the selection of leading industry of home and abroad, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the connotation, characteristics and classification of modern service industry and summarizes the choice criterion and the main factors of leading modern service industry. The main choice criterions of leading service industry for modern service are:Hirschman Criterion, Rostow Criterion, dynamic comparative advantage, the joint development and contribution to the society. The main influencing factors include demand motility (demand scale, growth rate of demand, income elasticity of demand), production factor input (core elements input and general elements input), interaction of industries (industrial relevancy among the modern service industries, and industrial relevancy between modern service industries and manufacturing), industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and guidance of government policy, etc. And the paper also describes the current development of modern service industry in Jiangsu from multiple perspectives including structural changes of modern service industry, foreign development of modern service industry and comparison of between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Then the paper establishes an index system which contains five first-level indicators including demand motility, production factor input, industrial relevancy, industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and 20 secondary indicators to select the leading industry of modern service, on basis of previous studies and the main influencing factors of leading industry of modern service. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to evaluate the performance of modern service industry of Jiangsu and principal component analysis (PCA) is also used to test the results from AHP. With cluster analysis, it is evident that these industries such as Real-estate Sector, Financial Sector, Education Sector, Transportation/Warehousing/Postal Sector and Leasing/Commerce Service Sector give a good performance. But according to current policy guidance, Financial Sector should be omitted and the remaining four can be viewed as the leading industries which should be vigorously developed in current stage. Furthermore, some other industries are chosen out as the leading industries in the next stage. They are scientific research/Technical service/Geological exploration Sector, Water/Environment/Public facility management Sector and Health/Social security/Social welfare Sector which have greater development potential and competitiveness compared with Zhejiang and Shanghai. At last, corresponding and concrete countermeasures are proposed for promoting the development of the four modern service leading industry of Jiangsu.
本文在综述国内外有关现代服务业发展和主导产业选择的研究成果基础上,对现代服务业的内涵特征及分类、现代服务业主导产业选择基准和影响因素进行了理论分析。现代服务业主导产业的选择基准主要有赫希曼基准、筱原基准、动态比较优势基准、协同发展基准和社会贡献基准。影响因素主要有需求动力(需求规模、需求增速和需求收入弹性)、生产要素投入(核心要素投入和一般要素的投入)、产业间互动作用(现代服务业产业间关联度以及现代服务业与制造业间的关联度)、产业竞争力、对社会创造的贡献大小以及政府政策的导向等。并从多个视角即江苏现代服务业结构变化、现代服务业对外发展情况以及江浙沪现代服务业发展状况对比来描述江苏现代服务业的发展现状。然后结合前人研究成果和现代服务业主导产业选择的影响因素构建了由需求动力、生产要素投入、产业关联度、产业竞争力、社会贡献五个一级指标和20各二级指标构成的现代服务业主导产业选择指标体系。运用层次分析法对江苏现代服务业展开评价,并辅之主成分分析用于检验层次分析法所得结果的科学性,再运用聚类分析得到：房地产业、金融业、教育、交通运输/仓储和邮政业、租赁和商务服务业综合表现良好,但依据现行政策导向,剔除房地产业后将其余四类作为现阶段应大力发展的现代服务业主导产业。又进一步根据江浙沪现代服务业竞争力的对比结果,得到具有一定发展潜力,可以作为江苏省未来某一时期主导产业的备选产业——科学研究/技术服务和地质勘查业、水利/环境和公共设施管理业、卫生/社会保障和社会福利业三个产业。在此基础上,提出了发展江苏现代服务业主导产业的对策建议。
Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2009. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage.
Service industry has been a commanding elevation point for economic development throughout the world gradually. And development of service industry is an important aspect for shifting the mode of economic growth and upgrading the industrial structure. Almost all the developed countries regard the modern service industry development as strategic point of industrial evolution and important task of keeping economic competitiveness. In China, the conception of'Modern service'was firstly posed in the report of Fifteenth Party Congress and then it has been widely used. Now, modern service industry has been a hot topic of study. But in fact, the proportion of service industry in the national economy is less than the level of other developed provinces and cities, and even lower than that of national average level in 2010. Therefore, to select correctly the leading industry of modern service industry of Jiangsu has great significance to the promotion of all-round development of Jiangsu's service industry at this stage. On basis of reviewing relevant research on the development of modern service industry and the selection of leading industry of home and abroad, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the connotation, characteristics and classification of modern service industry and summarizes the choice criterion and the main factors of leading modern service industry. The main choice criterions of leading service industry for modern service are:Hirschman Criterion, Rostow Criterion, dynamic comparative advantage, the joint development and contribution to the society. The main influencing factors include demand motility (demand scale, growth rate of demand, income elasticity of demand), production factor input (core elements input and general elements input), interaction of industries (industrial relevancy among the modern service industries, and industrial relevancy between modern service industries and manufacturing), industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and guidance of government policy, etc. And the paper also describes the current development of modern service industry in Jiangsu from multiple perspectives including structural changes of modern service industry, foreign development of modern service industry and comparison of between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Then the paper establishes an index system which contains five first-level indicators including demand motility, production factor input, industrial relevancy, industrial competitiveness, contribution to the society and 20 secondary indicators to select the leading industry of modern service, on basis of previous studies and the main influencing factors of leading industry of modern service. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to evaluate the performance of modern service industry of Jiangsu and principal component analysis (PCA) is also used to test the results from AHP. With cluster analysis, it is evident that these industries such as Real-estate Sector, Financial Sector, Education Sector, Transportation/Warehousing/Postal Sector and Leasing/Commerce Service Sector give a good performance. But according to current policy guidance, Financial Sector should be omitted and the remaining four can be viewed as the leading industries which should be vigorously developed in current stage. Furthermore, some other industries are chosen out as the leading industries in the next stage. They are scientific research/Technical service/Geological exploration Sector, Water/Environment/Public facility management Sector and Health/Social security/Social welfare Sector which have greater development potential and competitiveness compared with Zhejiang and Shanghai. At last, corresponding and concrete countermeasures are proposed for promoting the development of the four modern service leading industry of Jiangsu.
引文
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