美元本位下的货币错配
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摘要
汇率波动对各国经济产生巨大的影响,尤其是对发展中国家而言,先天对浮动汇率有恐惧感。而且,过去30年的国际经济史表明:浮动汇率下真正受益的只有少数几个发达国家,甚至于说只有美国。美国为何没有浮动恐惧?浮动汇率为什么会对其他国家造成损害?本文明确地指出,以上就是因为货币错配的存在。
美元作为世界通用货币,世界各经济主体在国际交往中必然出现资产和负债币种不统一的问题,从而使得资产净值或未来收入对汇率变动的敏感性,这就是货币错配。在当今实际的美元本位下,除了美国,其他国家或地区都面临货币错配问题。但是发达国家面临的货币错配问题相对不是很突出,原因有二:一是一些发达国家的货币是国际货币,可以作为国际支付和储藏手段;二是发达国家可以利用金融市场的金融衍生工具对汇率敞口风险进行对冲。所以发达国家的资产负债相对来说对汇率的敏感性要差一些。货币错配问题的产生既有外因,也有内因,但主要是外因,是因为国际货币体系实际上是美元本位。经过研究发现,无论是净资产还是净负债式的货币错配,都会对一国金融安全构成威胁。
要解决货币错配问题,需要美国和其他国家合作,一起承担汇率稳定的责任;作为长远目标,具备条件的国家应该实行货币一体化。
As we all know, the exchange rate exert an enormous impact on national economies, especially for the developings who have innate fear of floating exchange rate. Moreover, the international economic history over the past 30 years tells us: the real benefits of floating exchange rate are the developed countries, or only the United States. Many countries failed in internantional finance domain before the financial policies of U.S. Why is this so? Why is there no fear of floating in the United States? Why the floating exchange rate would cause damage to other countries? The paper points out that is because of the existence of currency mismatches.
In today's international economy Currency mismatches is a problem can not be ignored.Under present international monetary system, those whose currency is not a key currency are facing the problem of currency mismatches. The currency mismatches refers to the sensitivity of the balance sheet (ie, net) to exchange rate changes, or refers to sensitivity of the income statement (net income) to exchange rate changes. Therefore, the currency mismatches is still of the exchange rate issue,but for those whose currency is not a key currecny. As for the United States, the U.S. dollar is the world currency, his assets and liabilities are basically dollar-denominated, so the balance sheet of the United States is not sensitive to exchange rates. Also for this reason the United States use exchange rate as a weapon. In the 1980s U.S.defeated Japan in foreign exchage market.Japan was drawn into depression for 10 years.In the 1990s the self-overestimating Southeast Asian countries wrer given a strike. Presently for the purpose of domestic economy adjustment, U.S. makes a substantial devaluation of the dollar disregarding of the interests of other countries.
Entire thesis is divided into eight parts. Chapter 1 is introduction, mainly tells the topics of the article,discusses the background and significance, as well as major research methods to solve the problems. After the disintegration of Bretton Woods System the international monetary system entered the dollar standard. Through the issuance of U.S. dollars the United States provide liquidity to the world. As the distribution of U.S. dollar needn’t be subject to any restrictions,as long as for the purpose of its domestic economic management the U.S. dollar can be an arbitrary distribution. So, will inevitably bring U.S. dollars to excessive problems. In contrast to the United States, other countries have to accept U.S. dollars in international transactions and their assets and liabilities on balance sheets will inevitably produce currency mismatches.Currency mismatches problem arises.
Chapter 2 is a literature review and theoretical comment on part of the theories of the relevant Chinese and foreign literatures. The original sin , beyond the original sin, debt intolerance, fear of floating,conflicted virtue etc. are introduced. Domestic currency mismatches analysis of studies are presented here,too.It is pointed out that current weatern theories are not objective. Whether foreign or domestic currency mismatches research haven’t revealed the nature of the problem, but focus more on technical aspects of research.
Chapter 3 is a key part of this article.From a unique perspective of Marx's currency mismatches ideas, the part tells that it has been three monetary systems: the Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System, Jamaica Systems or the Dollar Standard. As for the adjustment mechanism of international balance of payments, the paper points out that under the Gold Standard or the Bretton Woods System,the problem of currency mismatches would not arise. Under the dollar standard, the U.S. dollars circulate as world currency, their value does not maintain a fixed ratio with gold and U. S. does not bear the responsibility of gold convertibility.So the currency mismatches problem arises.
In Chapter 4 , the concept of currency mismatches is further defined.We points out the differences from similar concepts, describes several measurement methods and the latest patterns currency mismatches. Comparing of currency mismatches and currency substitution, dollarization, the paper points out that currency mismatches is also the nature of currency substitution, but if the currency substitution reached a certain level, the problem of currency mismatches could arise.According to present theories, the measurements of currency mismatches include the net external position index, MISMATCH index, AECM indicators. Author believes that, AECM indicator is more perfect and scientific so it is used in subsequent studies to measure China's currency mismatches degree. This chapter also pointed out that prior to 1997, many developing countries represented by Southeast Asian countries, due to borrowing a large number of short-term capital, are at the state net debt.After the crisis, due to successive years of current account surpluses,these countries now have huge foreign exchange reserves,so their currency mismatches change from the state of net debt-based to net asset-based. As a result, new problems arise again, that is, the so-called conflicted virtue.
Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 rearch on the relationship of the currency mismatches and financial security. From a theoretical point of view Chapter 5 discusses the effects of currency mismatches on freign exchage markets through anticipation effects as well as the effects on business investments and outputs through balance sheet effects, enterprise net effects and competition effects. For those at the state of net-assets, the conflicted virtue causes great appreciation pressures.The currency mismatches problem also exerts negative affects on a state’s economic policies, making of monetary policies, exchange rate policies etc. in dilemmaes. From the empirical point of view,Chapter 6 reviews Asian financial crisis in 1990s, financial crisis broke out in 2007, describes the role of currency mismatches in the above financial crisises.
Chapter 7 mainly deals with the solvement of currency mismatches problem. The source of the currency mismatches problem lies in current dollar standard monetary system. So it couldn’t be completely get rid of presently. However, the vast number of countries should strive themselves,through the adjustment of domestic and international economic policies to reduce the negative impact of currency instead of despair. The paper tells that to solve the problem of currency mismatches completely, some countries need to implement a common currency area, which is an ideal way.
Chapter 8 then discusses China's currency mismatches. By estimating the net foreign assets of 2005-2008, AECM of 1999-2008, the author argues that the degree of China's currency mismatches reaches serious proportions. A financial crisis wouldn’t break out in China because its currency mismatches is net asset-based. However, the currency mismatches has brought about negative impacts: RMB faces pressures of greatly appreciation, monetary policy is constrained, dilemmas of exchange rate policies and the U.S. dollar depreciation leading to losses of our foreifn assets. By contrast to the experience of Japanese yen appreciation in the 1980s, the author points out that the appreciation of RMB is completely out of necessity to adjust the domestic economy and we have the ability to control the process to avoid bubble economy,though suffering losses currently.
Through the previous research, the author reaches the following conclusions:
Firstly, the currency mismatches is the result of present dollar stadard international monetary system. U.S. dollar is a world currency and the embodiment of fortune. So the vast number of countries accepts U.S. dollars as international setllement and reserves. Meanwile,they retain their domestic fortune in the form of their own currencies, which resulted in the net assets of national economic balance sheet ensitive to exchange rate for the differences in the currency structure of its assets and liabilities(or future income).Thus currency mismatches problems arise.
Secondly, all the countries are facing the problem of currency mismatches except the United States. Due to well-developed financial markets,the developed countries can make full use of various financial instruments to hedge exchange rate risk exposure.So they are affected by mismatches problem relatively minorly. For the evelopings,because the credit of local currency in the international arena is very hard or impossible, their own financial markets are underdeveloped, they are troubled by currency mismatches seriously.
Thirdly, both the net-debts and the net-assets form of currency mismatches are threatful to a country's financial security.They cause constraints on the monetary policy, exchange rate policy and fiscal policy. If not solved properly,currency mismatches problem will result in losses of their financial interests and even financial crises.
Fourth, the currency mismatches problem is rooted in the dollar standard but it is hard to change the present situations.So all countries should depend themselves,strive to reduce the negative impact of currency mismatches through improvement of domestic economic management and international coordination.
Fifth, in order to solve the problem of currency mismatches, it is necessary to implement regional currency integration. To achieve regional currency integration, countries among which trade and investment links are close should implement a fixed exchange rate, or a single currency inside the currency area and maitain joint float exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.
Sixth, China is also facing serious currency mismatches and its currency mismatches is a net asset form.,Due to our government's good ability to manage the domestic economy, financial crisises don’t have occurred in the conditions. However, due to adjustment of the U.S. economy, the dollar devaluation has caused us suffering from large losses. In future China should change economic developing strategies, develop the consumption potential of domestic market , strengthen the construction of rule and law, actively participate in the international monetary and financial cooperation and promote the internationalization of the RMB to reduce the negative impacts of currency mismatcheses.
美元作为世界通用货币,世界各经济主体在国际交往中必然出现资产和负债币种不统一的问题,从而使得资产净值或未来收入对汇率变动的敏感性,这就是货币错配。在当今实际的美元本位下,除了美国,其他国家或地区都面临货币错配问题。但是发达国家面临的货币错配问题相对不是很突出,原因有二:一是一些发达国家的货币是国际货币,可以作为国际支付和储藏手段;二是发达国家可以利用金融市场的金融衍生工具对汇率敞口风险进行对冲。所以发达国家的资产负债相对来说对汇率的敏感性要差一些。货币错配问题的产生既有外因,也有内因,但主要是外因,是因为国际货币体系实际上是美元本位。经过研究发现,无论是净资产还是净负债式的货币错配,都会对一国金融安全构成威胁。
要解决货币错配问题,需要美国和其他国家合作,一起承担汇率稳定的责任;作为长远目标,具备条件的国家应该实行货币一体化。
As we all know, the exchange rate exert an enormous impact on national economies, especially for the developings who have innate fear of floating exchange rate. Moreover, the international economic history over the past 30 years tells us: the real benefits of floating exchange rate are the developed countries, or only the United States. Many countries failed in internantional finance domain before the financial policies of U.S. Why is this so? Why is there no fear of floating in the United States? Why the floating exchange rate would cause damage to other countries? The paper points out that is because of the existence of currency mismatches.
In today's international economy Currency mismatches is a problem can not be ignored.Under present international monetary system, those whose currency is not a key currency are facing the problem of currency mismatches. The currency mismatches refers to the sensitivity of the balance sheet (ie, net) to exchange rate changes, or refers to sensitivity of the income statement (net income) to exchange rate changes. Therefore, the currency mismatches is still of the exchange rate issue,but for those whose currency is not a key currecny. As for the United States, the U.S. dollar is the world currency, his assets and liabilities are basically dollar-denominated, so the balance sheet of the United States is not sensitive to exchange rates. Also for this reason the United States use exchange rate as a weapon. In the 1980s U.S.defeated Japan in foreign exchage market.Japan was drawn into depression for 10 years.In the 1990s the self-overestimating Southeast Asian countries wrer given a strike. Presently for the purpose of domestic economy adjustment, U.S. makes a substantial devaluation of the dollar disregarding of the interests of other countries.
Entire thesis is divided into eight parts. Chapter 1 is introduction, mainly tells the topics of the article,discusses the background and significance, as well as major research methods to solve the problems. After the disintegration of Bretton Woods System the international monetary system entered the dollar standard. Through the issuance of U.S. dollars the United States provide liquidity to the world. As the distribution of U.S. dollar needn’t be subject to any restrictions,as long as for the purpose of its domestic economic management the U.S. dollar can be an arbitrary distribution. So, will inevitably bring U.S. dollars to excessive problems. In contrast to the United States, other countries have to accept U.S. dollars in international transactions and their assets and liabilities on balance sheets will inevitably produce currency mismatches.Currency mismatches problem arises.
Chapter 2 is a literature review and theoretical comment on part of the theories of the relevant Chinese and foreign literatures. The original sin , beyond the original sin, debt intolerance, fear of floating,conflicted virtue etc. are introduced. Domestic currency mismatches analysis of studies are presented here,too.It is pointed out that current weatern theories are not objective. Whether foreign or domestic currency mismatches research haven’t revealed the nature of the problem, but focus more on technical aspects of research.
Chapter 3 is a key part of this article.From a unique perspective of Marx's currency mismatches ideas, the part tells that it has been three monetary systems: the Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System, Jamaica Systems or the Dollar Standard. As for the adjustment mechanism of international balance of payments, the paper points out that under the Gold Standard or the Bretton Woods System,the problem of currency mismatches would not arise. Under the dollar standard, the U.S. dollars circulate as world currency, their value does not maintain a fixed ratio with gold and U. S. does not bear the responsibility of gold convertibility.So the currency mismatches problem arises.
In Chapter 4 , the concept of currency mismatches is further defined.We points out the differences from similar concepts, describes several measurement methods and the latest patterns currency mismatches. Comparing of currency mismatches and currency substitution, dollarization, the paper points out that currency mismatches is also the nature of currency substitution, but if the currency substitution reached a certain level, the problem of currency mismatches could arise.According to present theories, the measurements of currency mismatches include the net external position index, MISMATCH index, AECM indicators. Author believes that, AECM indicator is more perfect and scientific so it is used in subsequent studies to measure China's currency mismatches degree. This chapter also pointed out that prior to 1997, many developing countries represented by Southeast Asian countries, due to borrowing a large number of short-term capital, are at the state net debt.After the crisis, due to successive years of current account surpluses,these countries now have huge foreign exchange reserves,so their currency mismatches change from the state of net debt-based to net asset-based. As a result, new problems arise again, that is, the so-called conflicted virtue.
Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 rearch on the relationship of the currency mismatches and financial security. From a theoretical point of view Chapter 5 discusses the effects of currency mismatches on freign exchage markets through anticipation effects as well as the effects on business investments and outputs through balance sheet effects, enterprise net effects and competition effects. For those at the state of net-assets, the conflicted virtue causes great appreciation pressures.The currency mismatches problem also exerts negative affects on a state’s economic policies, making of monetary policies, exchange rate policies etc. in dilemmaes. From the empirical point of view,Chapter 6 reviews Asian financial crisis in 1990s, financial crisis broke out in 2007, describes the role of currency mismatches in the above financial crisises.
Chapter 7 mainly deals with the solvement of currency mismatches problem. The source of the currency mismatches problem lies in current dollar standard monetary system. So it couldn’t be completely get rid of presently. However, the vast number of countries should strive themselves,through the adjustment of domestic and international economic policies to reduce the negative impact of currency instead of despair. The paper tells that to solve the problem of currency mismatches completely, some countries need to implement a common currency area, which is an ideal way.
Chapter 8 then discusses China's currency mismatches. By estimating the net foreign assets of 2005-2008, AECM of 1999-2008, the author argues that the degree of China's currency mismatches reaches serious proportions. A financial crisis wouldn’t break out in China because its currency mismatches is net asset-based. However, the currency mismatches has brought about negative impacts: RMB faces pressures of greatly appreciation, monetary policy is constrained, dilemmas of exchange rate policies and the U.S. dollar depreciation leading to losses of our foreifn assets. By contrast to the experience of Japanese yen appreciation in the 1980s, the author points out that the appreciation of RMB is completely out of necessity to adjust the domestic economy and we have the ability to control the process to avoid bubble economy,though suffering losses currently.
Through the previous research, the author reaches the following conclusions:
Firstly, the currency mismatches is the result of present dollar stadard international monetary system. U.S. dollar is a world currency and the embodiment of fortune. So the vast number of countries accepts U.S. dollars as international setllement and reserves. Meanwile,they retain their domestic fortune in the form of their own currencies, which resulted in the net assets of national economic balance sheet ensitive to exchange rate for the differences in the currency structure of its assets and liabilities(or future income).Thus currency mismatches problems arise.
Secondly, all the countries are facing the problem of currency mismatches except the United States. Due to well-developed financial markets,the developed countries can make full use of various financial instruments to hedge exchange rate risk exposure.So they are affected by mismatches problem relatively minorly. For the evelopings,because the credit of local currency in the international arena is very hard or impossible, their own financial markets are underdeveloped, they are troubled by currency mismatches seriously.
Thirdly, both the net-debts and the net-assets form of currency mismatches are threatful to a country's financial security.They cause constraints on the monetary policy, exchange rate policy and fiscal policy. If not solved properly,currency mismatches problem will result in losses of their financial interests and even financial crises.
Fourth, the currency mismatches problem is rooted in the dollar standard but it is hard to change the present situations.So all countries should depend themselves,strive to reduce the negative impact of currency mismatches through improvement of domestic economic management and international coordination.
Fifth, in order to solve the problem of currency mismatches, it is necessary to implement regional currency integration. To achieve regional currency integration, countries among which trade and investment links are close should implement a fixed exchange rate, or a single currency inside the currency area and maitain joint float exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.
Sixth, China is also facing serious currency mismatches and its currency mismatches is a net asset form.,Due to our government's good ability to manage the domestic economy, financial crisises don’t have occurred in the conditions. However, due to adjustment of the U.S. economy, the dollar devaluation has caused us suffering from large losses. In future China should change economic developing strategies, develop the consumption potential of domestic market , strengthen the construction of rule and law, actively participate in the international monetary and financial cooperation and promote the internationalization of the RMB to reduce the negative impacts of currency mismatcheses.
引文
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35在戈登斯坦与特纳的著作中,将这种不匹配归纳为“货币错配”(currency mismatches)。
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50凯恩斯.凯恩斯文集.预言与劝说[M].南京:江苏人民出版社,1997,199,218
51凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论.北京:商务印书馆.1999,346
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10马克思.马克思恩格斯全集.第23卷.第3章[M].北京:人民出版社,1975,114
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18恩格斯.马克思恩格斯选集第4卷[M].北京:人民出版社,1973,116
19马歇尔.货币.信用与商业[M].北京:商务和印书馆,1997,11
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21凯恩斯.预言与劝说[M].江苏人民出版社.1997,265
22马克思.资本论.第1卷[M].北京:人民出版社,2002,786
23转引自宋鸿兵.货币战争[M].北京:中信出版社,2007,1
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27莫里斯?戈登斯坦、菲利浦?特纳.货币错配:新兴市场的困境与对策[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005,71-79
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29马克思.资本论(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1972,158-159.
30马克思.资本论(第3卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1975,608
31亚当·斯密.国富论(上卷)[M].北京:商务印书馆,2003,13.
32马克思.资本论(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2002,199
33凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京商务印书馆1999,85
34凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].商务印书馆.1999年重译本,152-153
35在戈登斯坦与特纳的著作中,将这种不匹配归纳为“货币错配”(currency mismatches)。
36凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆.1999,335
37托马斯·孟.贸易论<三种>[M].北京.商务印书馆,1997,6
38魁奈.魁奈经济著作选集[M].北京:商务印书馆,1997,248,99,129-130
39亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究.下卷[M].北京:商务印书馆,2003,10,11,22
40马克思.马克思恩格斯全集.第13卷[M].北京:人民出版社,1962,116,118,121
41凯恩斯.凯恩斯文集.预言与劝说[M].南京:江苏人民出版社,1997,65-66
42莫里斯·戈登斯坦,菲利普·特纳.货币错配——新兴市场国家的困境与对策[M].北京:科学文献出版社,2005,108
43莫里斯·戈登斯坦,菲利普·特纳.货币错配——新兴市场国家的困境与对策[M].北京:科学文献出版社,2005,108-109
44罗纳德?I?麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005,28-34
45罗纳德?I?麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005,132-133
46莫里斯·戈登斯坦,菲利普·特纳.货币错配——新兴市场国家的困境与对策[M].北京:科学文献出版社,2005,110-111
47查理斯·邓肯.《美元危机成因、后果与对策》[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社2006,333
49罗纳德?I?麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005,193-195
50凯恩斯.凯恩斯文集.预言与劝说[M].南京:江苏人民出版社,1997,199,218
51凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论.北京:商务印书馆.1999,346
52凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论.北京:商务印书馆.1999,344
53罗纳德?I?麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005,121-122
54罗纳德?I?麦金农,〔日〕大野建一——.美元与日元:化解美日两国的经济冲突[M].上海:上海远东出版社,1999, 12-13
56道格拉斯·C·诺斯.经济史上的结构与变迁.商务印书馆,2005,21
57罗纳德?I?麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005,113-120
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