基于博弈论的复合标底投标报价决策研究
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摘要
建筑工程招投标是我国市场经济条件下进行工程建设活动最为主要的竞争形式和交易形式。它将竞争机制引入工程建设领域,促进了我国建筑企业相互竞争、向前发展,完善了我国建筑市场运行机制。因此,研究建筑工程招投标对于提升我国建筑企业竞争力,推动我国建筑市场的进一步完善有着重大的理论意义和现实价值。
本文从卖方即投标企业角度出发,站在某一投标企业的立场,研究建筑市场最为普遍的复合标底投标报价合理的制定方法,以求在众多投标企业参与的竞卖活动中取胜。本文首先介绍了建筑工程招投标制度、投标工作一般程序以及招投标评议方法的基本知识,并得出结论:复合标底招标最为适合现阶段我国建筑工程招投标领域。随后,本文结合博弈论基本知识,详细阐述了建筑工程复合标底投标报价与博弈论的有关联系,并指出:建筑工程投标过程实质上就是一个博弈过程——复合标底投标报价博弈属于不完全信息静态博弈,其均衡称为“贝叶斯纳什均衡”;对于复合标底投标报价而言,理性的投标人完全可以应用博弈论的分析方法做出最优报价决策,从而实现自身的利益最大化。接着本文重点分析介绍了部分目前国内基于博弈理论对复合标底投标报价研究的成果。本文认为现有的博弈模型各有优劣,要想比较好解决复合标底投标报价问题,必须系统的整合各模型,相互取长补短,才能得到不错的预测效果。
接下来,本文在已有研究成果的基础上,运用博弈理论,综合三种主流博弈模型,建立一整套博弈模型集,来对复合标底投标报价进行分析预测。最后通过实证计算,验证了该模型集对提高复合标底投标报价评分的确有促进作用,同时也证明了多个博弈模型的综合应用效果优于单个博弈模型的应用。
Architecture construction bid invitation & bidding is the most important form of competition and trade in construction building activities in our market economy. It introduced competition mechanism into construction building area, has pushed our architecture enterprises to compete with each other, urged them on ward, and has improved and perfected our architecture market operation mechanism. Therefore, studying architecture construction bid invitation & bidding will mean a lot theoretically and practically to promoting the competence of our architecture enterprises and to further improving and perfecting our architecture market.
Starting from the angle of seller, that is, bidding enterprises, from the perspective of a certain bidding enterprise, this dissertation does research on reliable working-out methods of the most popular compound reservation price bidding & quotation in the architecture market so as to succeed in the competitive activities involving a lot of bidding enterprises. This dissertation, firstly, introduces the fundamental knowledge of architecture construction bid invitation & bidding system, general procedure of bidding as well as commentary methods of bid invitation & bidding, and arrives at the conclusion that compound reservation price bid invitation is the most suitable candidate for our present architecture construction bid invitation & bidding area. What follows is the detailed survey of the connection between architecture construction compound reservation price bidding & quotation and game theory, which combines the elementary knowledge of game theory. It is further pinpointed that architecture construction compound reservation price bidding is, in nature, a process of game-compound reservation price bidding & quotation belongs to incomplete-information static game and its equilibrium is called Bayes Nash Equilibrium. As to compound reservation price bidding & quotation, rational bidders can totally rely on the analysis method of game theory to give the best quotation price decision, and then maximize their own profit. After that, this dissertation focuses on the analysis of some of the research achievement established domestically into compound reservation price bidding & quotation game theory. It is held by this dissertation that the present game models have their own advantages and disadvantages. We must integrate systematically and selectively all models in order to be wise in solving the problem of compound reservation price bidding & quotation. Only by doing that can we get a better forecasting effect.
In the following chapter, on the basis of already established research achievements, using game theory and synthesizing three main game models, this dissertation sets up a whole set of game model system to analyze and forecast for compound reservation price bidding & quotation. At last, through practical calculation, this model system turns out to be beneficial for improving compound reservation price bidding & quotation grade. And at the same time, it also certifies that the comprehensive application of multi-model of game is better than the application of a single game model.
本文从卖方即投标企业角度出发,站在某一投标企业的立场,研究建筑市场最为普遍的复合标底投标报价合理的制定方法,以求在众多投标企业参与的竞卖活动中取胜。本文首先介绍了建筑工程招投标制度、投标工作一般程序以及招投标评议方法的基本知识,并得出结论:复合标底招标最为适合现阶段我国建筑工程招投标领域。随后,本文结合博弈论基本知识,详细阐述了建筑工程复合标底投标报价与博弈论的有关联系,并指出:建筑工程投标过程实质上就是一个博弈过程——复合标底投标报价博弈属于不完全信息静态博弈,其均衡称为“贝叶斯纳什均衡”;对于复合标底投标报价而言,理性的投标人完全可以应用博弈论的分析方法做出最优报价决策,从而实现自身的利益最大化。接着本文重点分析介绍了部分目前国内基于博弈理论对复合标底投标报价研究的成果。本文认为现有的博弈模型各有优劣,要想比较好解决复合标底投标报价问题,必须系统的整合各模型,相互取长补短,才能得到不错的预测效果。
接下来,本文在已有研究成果的基础上,运用博弈理论,综合三种主流博弈模型,建立一整套博弈模型集,来对复合标底投标报价进行分析预测。最后通过实证计算,验证了该模型集对提高复合标底投标报价评分的确有促进作用,同时也证明了多个博弈模型的综合应用效果优于单个博弈模型的应用。
Architecture construction bid invitation & bidding is the most important form of competition and trade in construction building activities in our market economy. It introduced competition mechanism into construction building area, has pushed our architecture enterprises to compete with each other, urged them on ward, and has improved and perfected our architecture market operation mechanism. Therefore, studying architecture construction bid invitation & bidding will mean a lot theoretically and practically to promoting the competence of our architecture enterprises and to further improving and perfecting our architecture market.
Starting from the angle of seller, that is, bidding enterprises, from the perspective of a certain bidding enterprise, this dissertation does research on reliable working-out methods of the most popular compound reservation price bidding & quotation in the architecture market so as to succeed in the competitive activities involving a lot of bidding enterprises. This dissertation, firstly, introduces the fundamental knowledge of architecture construction bid invitation & bidding system, general procedure of bidding as well as commentary methods of bid invitation & bidding, and arrives at the conclusion that compound reservation price bid invitation is the most suitable candidate for our present architecture construction bid invitation & bidding area. What follows is the detailed survey of the connection between architecture construction compound reservation price bidding & quotation and game theory, which combines the elementary knowledge of game theory. It is further pinpointed that architecture construction compound reservation price bidding is, in nature, a process of game-compound reservation price bidding & quotation belongs to incomplete-information static game and its equilibrium is called Bayes Nash Equilibrium. As to compound reservation price bidding & quotation, rational bidders can totally rely on the analysis method of game theory to give the best quotation price decision, and then maximize their own profit. After that, this dissertation focuses on the analysis of some of the research achievement established domestically into compound reservation price bidding & quotation game theory. It is held by this dissertation that the present game models have their own advantages and disadvantages. We must integrate systematically and selectively all models in order to be wise in solving the problem of compound reservation price bidding & quotation. Only by doing that can we get a better forecasting effect.
In the following chapter, on the basis of already established research achievements, using game theory and synthesizing three main game models, this dissertation sets up a whole set of game model system to analyze and forecast for compound reservation price bidding & quotation. At last, through practical calculation, this model system turns out to be beneficial for improving compound reservation price bidding & quotation grade. And at the same time, it also certifies that the comprehensive application of multi-model of game is better than the application of a single game model.
引文
[1] 陈慧玲,马太建. 建设工程招标投标指南. 南京:江苏科学技术出版社,2000.
[2] 焦银禾. 博弈论在投标报价决策中的应用:[天津大学硕士学位论文]. 天津,2005.
[3] 旭峰. 建设工程招标投标的方法研究及湖南省建筑市场均衡因素分析:[湖南大学硕士学位论文]. 长沙,2005.
[4] 朱学红. 湖南建筑工程招标投标相关问题研究:[中南大学硕士学位论文]. 长沙,2003.
[5] Friedman L. A competitive bidding strategy. Operations Research 1956;1(4) :104-112.
[6] Gates M. Bidding strategies and probabilities.Journal of the Construction Division, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers 1967;93(C01):75-107.
[7] Weverbergh M. Competitive bidding : estimating the joint distribution of bids.Working paper 82-79 , December , Centrum voor Bedrijfseconomie en Bedrijfseconometrie Universiteit Antwerpen-USFIA,1982.
[8] Norman A. Nadel,Fellow,ASCE, (Chairman,Nadel Associates,Inc.,Brewster, NY),Unit Pricing and Unbalanced Bids .Civil Engineering-ASCE,Vol. 61,No. 6, June 1991,pp. 62-63.
[9] Zohar Herbsman, Member,ASCE,(Prof. of Constr. Engrg.,Dept. of Civ. Engrg.,Univ.of Florida , Gainesville , FL 32611 ) Multiparameter Bidding System-Innovation in Contract Administration .Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, VoI .118, No. 1,March 1992, pp. 142-150.
[10] William J. Bender,P. E, Case Study of Construction Project Delivery Types,ASCE pg. NA,2003.
[11] Abdullah M. Alsugair, Framework for Evaluating Bids of Construction Contractors,Journal of Management in Engineering,Vol.15,No. 2,March/April 1999,pp. 72-78.
[12] Aminah Fayek, Competitive Bidding Strategy Model and Software System for Bid Preparation, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , Vol.124,No.1,January/February 1998,pp. 1-10.
[13] D.K. H. Chua,and D. Li,Key Factors in Bid Reasoning Model,Journal of Construction Engineering and Managemen,Vol. 126,No.5,September/October2000,pp. 349-357.
[14] Richard de Neufville,Risk and Need-for-Work Premiums in Contractor Bidding, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,Vol.117,No.4, December 1991,pp. 659-673.
[15] Elwood Henry,Cost Analysis between SABER and Design Bid Build Contracting Methods,Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,Vol.127,No. 5, September/October 2001,pp. 359-366.
[16] Bostleman R.L, Au T and Parti E. , Construction Management Game -Deterministic Model,ASCE Journal of Construction Division,Vol.95,1969 pp. 25-38.
[17]AbouRizk,S(.1992)"A Stochastic Bidding Game for Construction Management." Second Canadian Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering,CSCE, Ottawa.
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[19] S. PngHo,A. M. ASCE,and Ling Y. Liu,M. ASCE "AN ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR ANALYZING",Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.
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[22] 于瑞庭.对复合标底投标报价的探讨.铁路工程造价管理,2005(5):28-31.
[23] 胡基冬.复合标底报价通用模型极其应用研究.通信与信息技术,2005(4):54-59.
[24] 胡新治. 复合标底投标报价的探讨. 铁路工程造价管理,2002(3);14-17.
[25] 刘柏刚,丁加明. 贝叶斯决策在确定复合标底报价中的应用. 铁路工程造价管理,2002,(5):5-7..
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[28] 王玉松,张俊波. 铁路工程复合标底投标报价分析与发展. 铁路工程造价管理,2003,18(3):23-27.
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[31] 赵道致,张文慧. 招投标中的激励机制设计. 现代财经,2002,(11):12-15.
[32] 李丹,安义中,屈锡华. 按复合标底打分时的投标报价决策模型. 四川大学学报(自然科学版),2003,(10):798-801.
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[2] 焦银禾. 博弈论在投标报价决策中的应用:[天津大学硕士学位论文]. 天津,2005.
[3] 旭峰. 建设工程招标投标的方法研究及湖南省建筑市场均衡因素分析:[湖南大学硕士学位论文]. 长沙,2005.
[4] 朱学红. 湖南建筑工程招标投标相关问题研究:[中南大学硕士学位论文]. 长沙,2003.
[5] Friedman L. A competitive bidding strategy. Operations Research 1956;1(4) :104-112.
[6] Gates M. Bidding strategies and probabilities.Journal of the Construction Division, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers 1967;93(C01):75-107.
[7] Weverbergh M. Competitive bidding : estimating the joint distribution of bids.Working paper 82-79 , December , Centrum voor Bedrijfseconomie en Bedrijfseconometrie Universiteit Antwerpen-USFIA,1982.
[8] Norman A. Nadel,Fellow,ASCE, (Chairman,Nadel Associates,Inc.,Brewster, NY),Unit Pricing and Unbalanced Bids .Civil Engineering-ASCE,Vol. 61,No. 6, June 1991,pp. 62-63.
[9] Zohar Herbsman, Member,ASCE,(Prof. of Constr. Engrg.,Dept. of Civ. Engrg.,Univ.of Florida , Gainesville , FL 32611 ) Multiparameter Bidding System-Innovation in Contract Administration .Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, VoI .118, No. 1,March 1992, pp. 142-150.
[10] William J. Bender,P. E, Case Study of Construction Project Delivery Types,ASCE pg. NA,2003.
[11] Abdullah M. Alsugair, Framework for Evaluating Bids of Construction Contractors,Journal of Management in Engineering,Vol.15,No. 2,March/April 1999,pp. 72-78.
[12] Aminah Fayek, Competitive Bidding Strategy Model and Software System for Bid Preparation, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , Vol.124,No.1,January/February 1998,pp. 1-10.
[13] D.K. H. Chua,and D. Li,Key Factors in Bid Reasoning Model,Journal of Construction Engineering and Managemen,Vol. 126,No.5,September/October2000,pp. 349-357.
[14] Richard de Neufville,Risk and Need-for-Work Premiums in Contractor Bidding, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,Vol.117,No.4, December 1991,pp. 659-673.
[15] Elwood Henry,Cost Analysis between SABER and Design Bid Build Contracting Methods,Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,Vol.127,No. 5, September/October 2001,pp. 359-366.
[16] Bostleman R.L, Au T and Parti E. , Construction Management Game -Deterministic Model,ASCE Journal of Construction Division,Vol.95,1969 pp. 25-38.
[17]AbouRizk,S(.1992)"A Stochastic Bidding Game for Construction Management." Second Canadian Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering,CSCE, Ottawa.
[18] Khaled Nassar, Bradley University,"Pricing Construction Contracts in a Competitive Market: A Simulation Game" ASC Proceedings of the 38th Annual Conference. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University—Blacksburg, Virginia,April 11—13,2002,pp 47-54.
[19] S. PngHo,A. M. ASCE,and Ling Y. Liu,M. ASCE "AN ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR ANALYZING",Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.
[20] 刘伟. 试论复合标底的投标报价方法和技巧. 湖北农学院学报,2003(8):285-288.
[21] 张旭,龙卫红. 运用 Excel 电子表格建立建设工程投标报价试算模型. 宁夏工程技术,2003,(6):130-134.
[22] 于瑞庭.对复合标底投标报价的探讨.铁路工程造价管理,2005(5):28-31.
[23] 胡基冬.复合标底报价通用模型极其应用研究.通信与信息技术,2005(4):54-59.
[24] 胡新治. 复合标底投标报价的探讨. 铁路工程造价管理,2002(3);14-17.
[25] 刘柏刚,丁加明. 贝叶斯决策在确定复合标底报价中的应用. 铁路工程造价管理,2002,(5):5-7..
[26] 李向阳. 复合标底报价的量化分析. 铁路工程造价管理,2003(2):7-9.
[27] 刘连生. 概率统计在投标报价决策中的应用. 铁路工程造价管理,2003,(6):19-21.
[28] 王玉松,张俊波. 铁路工程复合标底投标报价分析与发展. 铁路工程造价管理,2003,18(3):23-27.
[29] 黄宏飞,欧国立. 博弈论在投标报价决策中的应用. 北方交通大学学报,2000,(6):41-43.
[30] 郝丽萍,郑远挺,谭庆美. 建设工程投标报价的博弈模型研究. 哈尔滨建筑大学学报,2002,(4):109-112..
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