中国公共养老金制度的模式选择与完善
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摘要
联合国《经济、社会、文化公约》第9条规定“人人有权享受社会保障,包括社会保险”。社会保障的实施成为社会文明和人类进步的标志,而养老保障则是社会保障的一项重要内容,设计优良的养老金制度发挥着促进经济发展、社会和谐和政治稳定的作用。事实上,自1889年德国建立世界上第一个强制性公共养老金计划后的100多年来,世界上已有160多个国家和地区建立了养老金制度,而政府无一例外地承担了养老金制度的设计和推行职责,特别是由政府举办的公共养老金计划更是满足社会成员老年基本生活需要的最可靠的保证。
20世纪80年代以来至今,全球公共养老金制度掀起了新一轮改革热潮。一方面是发达国家在巨大的人口老龄化压力下对现有的公共养老金制度进行大幅度调整;另一方面是大量发展中国家和经济转型国家加快建设本国的公共养老金制度体系。虽然各国的具体改革内容差异颇大,但各国改革的目标都是类似的,即要建立一个与其政治、经济发展水平相适应的养老金体系,以改善国内老年人的生活状况和生活质量,实现老有所养,体现人类社会文明发展进步,并促进国家稳定和经济发展。
我国自1951年建立公共养老金制度以来,为了不断地适应经济发展水平和市场环境的变化,其公共养老金制度也经历了多次的调整,最终于1997年,在参照别国方案和世界银行建议的基础上,建立了社会统筹与个人账户相结合的现行养老金制度模式。经过几年的实践后发现,虽然体制设计的初衷很好,但养老金体系运行的困难和复杂性远远超出了制度设计者的最初预期,统账结合的制度模式在运行中存在着一些难以克服的问题,使得现行的养老金制度模式逐步陷入窘境。是继续沿用原来的改革思路,采用给付确定型现收现付制和缴费确定型积累制相结合的统账结合的制度模式,还是改弦易辙,变为完全的缴费确定型积累制或者完全的给付确定型现收现付制,还是借鉴欧亚六国的经验转为尝试名义缴费确定型现收现付制?目前成为我国决策者和学术领域研究者关注的焦点。在上述背景下,本文在考察世界各国在公共养老金制度模式设计中的经验和教训,以及不同公共养老金制度模式的运行机理及效应的基础上,根据具体国情,对我国公共养老金最优制度模式的选择和设计问题进行了较为深入的理论分析和实证研究,该研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文在详尽考察全球性公共养老金制度的相关研究及改革状况的基础上,构建理论模型,分析并比较了不同公共养老金制度模式的经济增长效应和社会福利效应,继而重点分析了不同公共养老金制度模式在中国的适用性,进而考察我国在改革公共养老金制度时的最优模式选择,并根据具体国情设计出最为适宜的改革路径,提出系统的具有可操作性的政策建议。
本文正文部分共分为七章。第一章为绪论,主要提出了本文所要研究的问题,并阐述了本文的研究目的、意义及具体的研究设计。第二章为本文的文献回顾部分,系统回顾了关于公共养老金制度模式选择问题的国内外代表性研究文献,考察了国内外研究现状和动态,从而为研究我国公共养老金制度模式的选择和具体建设工作提供理论依据。第三章为制度背景分析,集中考察了全球及我国公共养老金制度的发展与模式现状,以便为下文深入考察我国公共养老金制度模式的选择问题提供现实背景和研究依据。第四章,深入考察了公共养老金制度模式的运行机理,继而在此基础上构建理论模型,分析并比较了不同养老金制度模式的经济增长效应和社会福利效应,包括对国民储蓄、劳动力供给和收入再分配的影响,以及在应对社会人口老龄化的效应上的差异。第五章,对不同公共养老金制度模式在中国的适用性问题进行了研究。首先考察并分析我国现行统账结合的公共养老金制度模式在制度设计上存在的问题及其基本原因,进而建立理论模型分别对缴费确定型积累制、给付确定型现收现付制和名义缴费确定型现收现付制,在我国的适用性问题进行了比较分析,并得出重要结论。第六章,结合国外公共养老金制度模式改革的相关经验及我国的具体国情,深入探究最适宜我国国情的公共养老金制度模式,并设计制度转轨路径和具体的制度细节。第七章为结束语部分,总结了本文的主要研究结论和政策启示,此外,还就本文研究的不足之处和进一步研究的方向等做了简要说明。
Based on Article 9 of International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, "The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right of everyone to social security, including social insurance". The setup of the social security is the symbol of the civilization and the progress of the human society and the pension system is a vital component of the social security system. A well-designed pension system has the function of supporting social development, harmonization and the stability of the society. In fact, the public pension system had existed for more than 100 years since the German set up the first mandatory pension system, and at the present, there are over 160 countries and regions had set up their pension system and the government played the role of the designer and seller of these pension systems. The public pension system which supported by the government became the most reliable insurance for the basic needs for the aged people.
Since 1980 many countries made reform on the pension system. On one hand, the developed countries had to make reform under the pressure of aging trend of the population. On the other hand, the developing countries and economies in transition speeded up the setup of the pension system. Although there are many difference between these pension reforms, they had the same target that the pension system should be compatible with the level of the social and political development, improve the living standard of the old people and support the stability and development of the social and economy.
In China, there are several adjustments in pension system since the setup of the public pension system in 1951 to fit the social and economy development. In 1997, China set up a pension system which combines the social pooling and individual account based on the experience of other countries and suggestion of the World Bank. After several years' practice, we find that there are a lot of problems have arisen because of the out-of-expectation complexity and difficulty of this pension system although the good intention when it was designed. There are several options when we faced this dilemma: one is staying in the track which is the combination of DB-PAYG and FDC system; option 2 is to jump out of the track to a pure DB-PAYG or a pure FDC system; option 3 is changing to NDC-PAYG system based on the experience of 6 countries in Europe and Asia. The selection of these options is the focus of the policy makers and researchers. Under this background, the dissertation made a deep theoretical and empirical research on the selection and design of the optimal pension system in China based on the integrated research on the pension system around the world, their pros and cons, their function rationale and effects and the most important, say the basic condition of China. This research is very important to the theoretical research and the practice.
In this dissertation, the author made a deep analysis on the pension system around the world. The author also analyzes and compares the economic growth effect and social welfare effect of different pension systems based on the model constructed. Furthermore, the author focus on the analysis of the feasibility of these pension system in China and make a deep analysis on the selection of the optimal pension system in China based on the research mentioned above. Finally, the author put forward the suggestion on the optimal reform path to support the public pension reform policy in China based on our country's basic conditions.
This dissertation is composed of 7 chapters. The chapter 1 is an introduction part of the dissertation, which contains the research issue the dissertation focused and the purpose of this dissertation, the significance of the study and the research design of the dissertation. The chapter 2 reviews the literature for this topic. This chapter systematically reviewed the public pension system selection in the literature of the domestic and foreign studies and the current status of the research which provides the theoretical basis for the research on public pension system selection. The chapter 3 is the background analysis of the dissertation. This chapter focused on the background of the development and the current status of the public pension system in China and other countries. The purpose the analysis is to provide the empirical background and theoretical framework to the research of the public pension system selection in China. The chapter 4 made the deep research on the function rationale of different public pension systems. Furthermore, the author analyzed and compared the economic growth effect and social welfare effect of different public pension systems based on the model constructed, including the effects to the national savings, labor supply, income re-distribution and dealing with the aging trend of the population. The chapter 5 studies the feasibility of the different public pension systems in China. Firstly the dissertation analyzed the difficulty we met for the current public pension system with the combination of social pooling and individual accounts. Then based on the research mentioned above, the dissertation analyzed the feasibility in China of FDC system, DBPAYG system and NDC system based on the theoretical model constructed. The chapter 6 made a deep discussion on the optimal public pension system in China and designed the transition track with detailed methods based on the research of the experience of other countries and the basic condition in China. The chapter 7 is the concluding remarks of the dissertation, which summarized the main research conclusions and suggestions, the research limitations and further research directions etc..
20世纪80年代以来至今,全球公共养老金制度掀起了新一轮改革热潮。一方面是发达国家在巨大的人口老龄化压力下对现有的公共养老金制度进行大幅度调整;另一方面是大量发展中国家和经济转型国家加快建设本国的公共养老金制度体系。虽然各国的具体改革内容差异颇大,但各国改革的目标都是类似的,即要建立一个与其政治、经济发展水平相适应的养老金体系,以改善国内老年人的生活状况和生活质量,实现老有所养,体现人类社会文明发展进步,并促进国家稳定和经济发展。
我国自1951年建立公共养老金制度以来,为了不断地适应经济发展水平和市场环境的变化,其公共养老金制度也经历了多次的调整,最终于1997年,在参照别国方案和世界银行建议的基础上,建立了社会统筹与个人账户相结合的现行养老金制度模式。经过几年的实践后发现,虽然体制设计的初衷很好,但养老金体系运行的困难和复杂性远远超出了制度设计者的最初预期,统账结合的制度模式在运行中存在着一些难以克服的问题,使得现行的养老金制度模式逐步陷入窘境。是继续沿用原来的改革思路,采用给付确定型现收现付制和缴费确定型积累制相结合的统账结合的制度模式,还是改弦易辙,变为完全的缴费确定型积累制或者完全的给付确定型现收现付制,还是借鉴欧亚六国的经验转为尝试名义缴费确定型现收现付制?目前成为我国决策者和学术领域研究者关注的焦点。在上述背景下,本文在考察世界各国在公共养老金制度模式设计中的经验和教训,以及不同公共养老金制度模式的运行机理及效应的基础上,根据具体国情,对我国公共养老金最优制度模式的选择和设计问题进行了较为深入的理论分析和实证研究,该研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文在详尽考察全球性公共养老金制度的相关研究及改革状况的基础上,构建理论模型,分析并比较了不同公共养老金制度模式的经济增长效应和社会福利效应,继而重点分析了不同公共养老金制度模式在中国的适用性,进而考察我国在改革公共养老金制度时的最优模式选择,并根据具体国情设计出最为适宜的改革路径,提出系统的具有可操作性的政策建议。
本文正文部分共分为七章。第一章为绪论,主要提出了本文所要研究的问题,并阐述了本文的研究目的、意义及具体的研究设计。第二章为本文的文献回顾部分,系统回顾了关于公共养老金制度模式选择问题的国内外代表性研究文献,考察了国内外研究现状和动态,从而为研究我国公共养老金制度模式的选择和具体建设工作提供理论依据。第三章为制度背景分析,集中考察了全球及我国公共养老金制度的发展与模式现状,以便为下文深入考察我国公共养老金制度模式的选择问题提供现实背景和研究依据。第四章,深入考察了公共养老金制度模式的运行机理,继而在此基础上构建理论模型,分析并比较了不同养老金制度模式的经济增长效应和社会福利效应,包括对国民储蓄、劳动力供给和收入再分配的影响,以及在应对社会人口老龄化的效应上的差异。第五章,对不同公共养老金制度模式在中国的适用性问题进行了研究。首先考察并分析我国现行统账结合的公共养老金制度模式在制度设计上存在的问题及其基本原因,进而建立理论模型分别对缴费确定型积累制、给付确定型现收现付制和名义缴费确定型现收现付制,在我国的适用性问题进行了比较分析,并得出重要结论。第六章,结合国外公共养老金制度模式改革的相关经验及我国的具体国情,深入探究最适宜我国国情的公共养老金制度模式,并设计制度转轨路径和具体的制度细节。第七章为结束语部分,总结了本文的主要研究结论和政策启示,此外,还就本文研究的不足之处和进一步研究的方向等做了简要说明。
Based on Article 9 of International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, "The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right of everyone to social security, including social insurance". The setup of the social security is the symbol of the civilization and the progress of the human society and the pension system is a vital component of the social security system. A well-designed pension system has the function of supporting social development, harmonization and the stability of the society. In fact, the public pension system had existed for more than 100 years since the German set up the first mandatory pension system, and at the present, there are over 160 countries and regions had set up their pension system and the government played the role of the designer and seller of these pension systems. The public pension system which supported by the government became the most reliable insurance for the basic needs for the aged people.
Since 1980 many countries made reform on the pension system. On one hand, the developed countries had to make reform under the pressure of aging trend of the population. On the other hand, the developing countries and economies in transition speeded up the setup of the pension system. Although there are many difference between these pension reforms, they had the same target that the pension system should be compatible with the level of the social and political development, improve the living standard of the old people and support the stability and development of the social and economy.
In China, there are several adjustments in pension system since the setup of the public pension system in 1951 to fit the social and economy development. In 1997, China set up a pension system which combines the social pooling and individual account based on the experience of other countries and suggestion of the World Bank. After several years' practice, we find that there are a lot of problems have arisen because of the out-of-expectation complexity and difficulty of this pension system although the good intention when it was designed. There are several options when we faced this dilemma: one is staying in the track which is the combination of DB-PAYG and FDC system; option 2 is to jump out of the track to a pure DB-PAYG or a pure FDC system; option 3 is changing to NDC-PAYG system based on the experience of 6 countries in Europe and Asia. The selection of these options is the focus of the policy makers and researchers. Under this background, the dissertation made a deep theoretical and empirical research on the selection and design of the optimal pension system in China based on the integrated research on the pension system around the world, their pros and cons, their function rationale and effects and the most important, say the basic condition of China. This research is very important to the theoretical research and the practice.
In this dissertation, the author made a deep analysis on the pension system around the world. The author also analyzes and compares the economic growth effect and social welfare effect of different pension systems based on the model constructed. Furthermore, the author focus on the analysis of the feasibility of these pension system in China and make a deep analysis on the selection of the optimal pension system in China based on the research mentioned above. Finally, the author put forward the suggestion on the optimal reform path to support the public pension reform policy in China based on our country's basic conditions.
This dissertation is composed of 7 chapters. The chapter 1 is an introduction part of the dissertation, which contains the research issue the dissertation focused and the purpose of this dissertation, the significance of the study and the research design of the dissertation. The chapter 2 reviews the literature for this topic. This chapter systematically reviewed the public pension system selection in the literature of the domestic and foreign studies and the current status of the research which provides the theoretical basis for the research on public pension system selection. The chapter 3 is the background analysis of the dissertation. This chapter focused on the background of the development and the current status of the public pension system in China and other countries. The purpose the analysis is to provide the empirical background and theoretical framework to the research of the public pension system selection in China. The chapter 4 made the deep research on the function rationale of different public pension systems. Furthermore, the author analyzed and compared the economic growth effect and social welfare effect of different public pension systems based on the model constructed, including the effects to the national savings, labor supply, income re-distribution and dealing with the aging trend of the population. The chapter 5 studies the feasibility of the different public pension systems in China. Firstly the dissertation analyzed the difficulty we met for the current public pension system with the combination of social pooling and individual accounts. Then based on the research mentioned above, the dissertation analyzed the feasibility in China of FDC system, DBPAYG system and NDC system based on the theoretical model constructed. The chapter 6 made a deep discussion on the optimal public pension system in China and designed the transition track with detailed methods based on the research of the experience of other countries and the basic condition in China. The chapter 7 is the concluding remarks of the dissertation, which summarized the main research conclusions and suggestions, the research limitations and further research directions etc..
引文
[1]引自E.Philip Davis,Policy and Implementation Issues in Reforming Pension Systems,Working Paper No.31,London:European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,1998.
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5 Gosta Esping-Andersen,The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism,Polity Press,1990.
7 第一次石油危机发生在1973-1974年,第二次石油危机发生在1979-1980年。
8 郑功成等:中国社会保障制度变迁与评估,中国人民大学出版社,2002年。
25 参见Robert J.Barro,Are Government Bands Net Worth? Journal of Political Economy,1994,11
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