基于成长期的中国乳制品产业发展研究
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摘要
乳制品具有丰富的营养价值,世界卫生组织把人均乳制品消费量列为衡量一个国家人民生活水平的主要指标之一。乳制品产业的发展有利于改善居民膳食结构、提高国民身体素质,优化农业结构、促进农民增收,并带动相关产业发展。经过多年的发展,中国乳制品产业实现快速发展,人均乳制品消费量逐年增加,产业集中度趋于提高,企业规模不断扩大。但与此同时,乳制品产业仍然存在着企业规模偏低、行业效益低下、产业化水平较低、产业竞争力低下等问题,面对上述问题,迫切需要对乳制品产业发展问题进行深入的相关理论研究,以指导实践,确保乳制品产业持续、健康发展,这也是本论文研究的基本出发点。
本文围绕着如何提高乳制品产业竞争力、提高乳制品企业经营效率、优化乳制品市场结构与改善乳制品企业绩效,开展了以下方面的研究:(1)运用改进Bass模型、ARIMA模型和GM模型对中国乳制品销售量进行预测分析,结果表明改进Bass模型在拟合度和预测精度方面明显优于ARIMA模型和GM模型,更加动态反映了乳制品市场的真实情况,并得出乳制品产业处于产业成长期的结论,为论文以后各章的撰写奠定基础。(2)在乳制品产业处于成长期阶段的基础上,从供给和需求两方面对乳制品产业特征分析进行研究。(3)乳制品产业市场结构与市场绩效分析,构建回归模型进行实证研究,结论表明市场结构与市场绩效线性负相关,市场结构决定市场绩效,这对中国制定乳制品产业政策具有重要的现实意义。(4)运用区位基尼系数和专业化指数对中国31个省(地区)乳制品产业集聚程度进行测量,结果表明内蒙古(自治区)已形成乳制品产业集群,产业集群的形成对区域乳制品产业发展形成促进作用。(5)运用比较优势和竞争优势理论对中国乳制品产业竞争力进行分析。运用显示比较优势指数和贸易专业化指数对中国乳制品产业比较优势进行测算,结果显示中国乳制品产业处于比较劣势。依据波特的钻石体系将竞争优势影响因素进行层次分解,运用层次分析和模糊数学方法构建乳制品产业竞争优势评价模型,结论为中国乳制品产业竞争优势指数偏低,竞争力较弱。
论文试图在以下三个方面作出具有理论和实践价值的创新性成果。
第一,基于乳制品具有消费周期短、销售频率高的消费特点,本文建立了基于首次购买和重置购买情形下的市场扩散模型,对中国乳制品产业销售量进行预测分析,得出乳制品市场扩散的主要驱动因素来自外部影响,乳制品产业处于产业成长期的结论。
第二,构建市场绩效指标评价体系,建立回归模型进行定量分析。运算结果显示,中国乳制品产业市场结构与绩效之间存在线性关系,当产业集中度在10%-50%之间时,利润率不随集中度的提高而上升,反而会有所下降,这对中国制定乳制品产业政策具有重要的现实意义。
第三,依据波特的钻石结构模型建立乳制品竞争优势指标体系,运用层次分析法和模糊数学法对乳制品产业竞争优势进行评价,并以内蒙古乳制品产业为例对中国乳制品产业竞争力进行实证分析。
Dairy product is nutritious,and the World Health Organization regard the per capita consumption of dairy product as one of the key indicators,measuring a nation's living standard. The development of dairy industry is beneficial to improve people's diet structure,raise their overall level of health,optimize the structure of agriculture,increase peasant incomes,and promote the development of related industries.After years of development,Dairy industry in China has achieved rapid development,the per capita consumption of dairy product has increased year by year,industry concentration tended to increase,enterprise scale has expanded. In the mean time,there are still many problems as follow:the scale of dairy industry enterprise is small,the efficiency is low,and its level of industrialization and the competition of the industry is low.As a result,it is quite urgent that we develop related theoretical research concerning industry development in depth to guide practice,which ensures a continuous and healthy development of the dairy industry.This is the basic starting point of the thesis research.
Based on how to improve the competition of the dairy industry,how to improve operational efficiency and performance of dairy enterprises,how to optimize the dairy market structure,this article studies on the following areas:
(1)Through conducting a predicting analysis on the sales of the dairy products with the improved Bass model,ARIMA model and the GM model separately,it has been found that the Bass model is better than the other two in the aspects of the fitting and forecast accuracy.It can also dynamically reflect the real situation of the market of diary product.We have so concluded that the diary industry is still at the growth period which has set the foundation of the following chapters.
(2)The paper has conducted a study on the characteristic of dairy industry,from dairy product supply and demand aspects.
(3)From the analysis of dairy industry market structure and market performance,and constructing a regression model,we concluded that the relation between market structure and market performance is linear negative correlation and market structure decided market performance,which is significant to draw up the industry policy of dairy industry.
(4)Making use of Gini coefficient and the specialization index,dairy industry concentration level of Chinese 31 provinces(municipalities) is measured.It shows that dairy industry clusters has formed in Mongolia,which promotes the development regional dairy industry.
(5)Using theory about comparative advantage and competitive advantage,we analyze on the competition of Chinese dairy industry,which shows that Chinese dairy industry is in a relatively disadvantageous position using comparative advantage and trade specialization index. According to Porter's diamond system,the factors,affecting competitive advantage,is decomposed in level.Using AHP and fuzzy mathematics Construction,competitive advantage evaluation model of dairy industry is constructed.It is a conclusion that competitive advantage index of Chinese dairy industry is low and is less competitive.
The paper obtains innovative results which have theoretical and practical value in the following four aspects:
Firstly,based on the short cycle of dairy consumption,sales of high-frequency,the paper builds the market diffusion model based on the situation of initial purchase and re-purchase. The sales of Chinese dairy industry is forecasted and analyzed.It concludes that the driven factors of dairy products market come from external influence,and the life cycle of dairy industry is in growth period.
Secondly,a market indicator of achievement evaluation system and a regression model for quantitative analysis are established.From operational results,it is known that linear relationship exists between market structure and performance of Chinese dairy industry.When the concentration of industries is between 10%-50%,profit rate do not increase with the rise of centralization,but the opposite will decline relatively,which is significant to draw up policy of Chinese dairy industry.
Thirdly,using AHP,the constituent elements of competitive advantage is decomposed. Combining fuzzy math methods,the competitive advantage evaluation model and the methods are constituted,and the determining weighting factors are built.And we analyzed the industrial competition of Chinese dairy with Inner Mongolia dairy industry as an example.
本文围绕着如何提高乳制品产业竞争力、提高乳制品企业经营效率、优化乳制品市场结构与改善乳制品企业绩效,开展了以下方面的研究:(1)运用改进Bass模型、ARIMA模型和GM模型对中国乳制品销售量进行预测分析,结果表明改进Bass模型在拟合度和预测精度方面明显优于ARIMA模型和GM模型,更加动态反映了乳制品市场的真实情况,并得出乳制品产业处于产业成长期的结论,为论文以后各章的撰写奠定基础。(2)在乳制品产业处于成长期阶段的基础上,从供给和需求两方面对乳制品产业特征分析进行研究。(3)乳制品产业市场结构与市场绩效分析,构建回归模型进行实证研究,结论表明市场结构与市场绩效线性负相关,市场结构决定市场绩效,这对中国制定乳制品产业政策具有重要的现实意义。(4)运用区位基尼系数和专业化指数对中国31个省(地区)乳制品产业集聚程度进行测量,结果表明内蒙古(自治区)已形成乳制品产业集群,产业集群的形成对区域乳制品产业发展形成促进作用。(5)运用比较优势和竞争优势理论对中国乳制品产业竞争力进行分析。运用显示比较优势指数和贸易专业化指数对中国乳制品产业比较优势进行测算,结果显示中国乳制品产业处于比较劣势。依据波特的钻石体系将竞争优势影响因素进行层次分解,运用层次分析和模糊数学方法构建乳制品产业竞争优势评价模型,结论为中国乳制品产业竞争优势指数偏低,竞争力较弱。
论文试图在以下三个方面作出具有理论和实践价值的创新性成果。
第一,基于乳制品具有消费周期短、销售频率高的消费特点,本文建立了基于首次购买和重置购买情形下的市场扩散模型,对中国乳制品产业销售量进行预测分析,得出乳制品市场扩散的主要驱动因素来自外部影响,乳制品产业处于产业成长期的结论。
第二,构建市场绩效指标评价体系,建立回归模型进行定量分析。运算结果显示,中国乳制品产业市场结构与绩效之间存在线性关系,当产业集中度在10%-50%之间时,利润率不随集中度的提高而上升,反而会有所下降,这对中国制定乳制品产业政策具有重要的现实意义。
第三,依据波特的钻石结构模型建立乳制品竞争优势指标体系,运用层次分析法和模糊数学法对乳制品产业竞争优势进行评价,并以内蒙古乳制品产业为例对中国乳制品产业竞争力进行实证分析。
Dairy product is nutritious,and the World Health Organization regard the per capita consumption of dairy product as one of the key indicators,measuring a nation's living standard. The development of dairy industry is beneficial to improve people's diet structure,raise their overall level of health,optimize the structure of agriculture,increase peasant incomes,and promote the development of related industries.After years of development,Dairy industry in China has achieved rapid development,the per capita consumption of dairy product has increased year by year,industry concentration tended to increase,enterprise scale has expanded. In the mean time,there are still many problems as follow:the scale of dairy industry enterprise is small,the efficiency is low,and its level of industrialization and the competition of the industry is low.As a result,it is quite urgent that we develop related theoretical research concerning industry development in depth to guide practice,which ensures a continuous and healthy development of the dairy industry.This is the basic starting point of the thesis research.
Based on how to improve the competition of the dairy industry,how to improve operational efficiency and performance of dairy enterprises,how to optimize the dairy market structure,this article studies on the following areas:
(1)Through conducting a predicting analysis on the sales of the dairy products with the improved Bass model,ARIMA model and the GM model separately,it has been found that the Bass model is better than the other two in the aspects of the fitting and forecast accuracy.It can also dynamically reflect the real situation of the market of diary product.We have so concluded that the diary industry is still at the growth period which has set the foundation of the following chapters.
(2)The paper has conducted a study on the characteristic of dairy industry,from dairy product supply and demand aspects.
(3)From the analysis of dairy industry market structure and market performance,and constructing a regression model,we concluded that the relation between market structure and market performance is linear negative correlation and market structure decided market performance,which is significant to draw up the industry policy of dairy industry.
(4)Making use of Gini coefficient and the specialization index,dairy industry concentration level of Chinese 31 provinces(municipalities) is measured.It shows that dairy industry clusters has formed in Mongolia,which promotes the development regional dairy industry.
(5)Using theory about comparative advantage and competitive advantage,we analyze on the competition of Chinese dairy industry,which shows that Chinese dairy industry is in a relatively disadvantageous position using comparative advantage and trade specialization index. According to Porter's diamond system,the factors,affecting competitive advantage,is decomposed in level.Using AHP and fuzzy mathematics Construction,competitive advantage evaluation model of dairy industry is constructed.It is a conclusion that competitive advantage index of Chinese dairy industry is low and is less competitive.
The paper obtains innovative results which have theoretical and practical value in the following four aspects:
Firstly,based on the short cycle of dairy consumption,sales of high-frequency,the paper builds the market diffusion model based on the situation of initial purchase and re-purchase. The sales of Chinese dairy industry is forecasted and analyzed.It concludes that the driven factors of dairy products market come from external influence,and the life cycle of dairy industry is in growth period.
Secondly,a market indicator of achievement evaluation system and a regression model for quantitative analysis are established.From operational results,it is known that linear relationship exists between market structure and performance of Chinese dairy industry.When the concentration of industries is between 10%-50%,profit rate do not increase with the rise of centralization,but the opposite will decline relatively,which is significant to draw up policy of Chinese dairy industry.
Thirdly,using AHP,the constituent elements of competitive advantage is decomposed. Combining fuzzy math methods,the competitive advantage evaluation model and the methods are constituted,and the determining weighting factors are built.And we analyzed the industrial competition of Chinese dairy with Inner Mongolia dairy industry as an example.
引文
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