三峡库区滚装船运输安全评估技术研究
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摘要
三峡工程是世界瞩目的水上工程项目,工程建设后,库区航道条件得到改善,促进了水路运输的发展。滚装船运输是三峡大坝蓄水后出现的一种新的运输方式,由于符合长途重载货车运输市场的要求,发展迅速,在短短的几年内发展到119艘、5 902车位。2007年,运输滚装车39.2万辆,承担的货运量约占三峡断面货运量的22.6%,滚装船已成为三峡库区重要的运输力量。
三峡库区滚装船的安全关系航运安全,是保障三峡库区水上交通畅通和库区水域清洁的重要组成部分,是政府和各级交通主管部门高度关心和重视的问题,也是国际、国内社会各界非常关注的问题。
安全评估是对运输系统存在的风险进行识别、分析、评价和控制的活动,研究三峡库区滚装船安全评估技术,对改进安全管理效率和提高安全管理水平,具有重大的现实意义。论文的研究工作包括以下几个主要方面:
(1)通过调研和资料搜集工作,了解并分析三峡库区滚装船运输、滚装船发展、国内外相关研究的情况,了解安全评估的发展概况及难点问题。
(2)以系统安全工程和事故致因理论为依托,研究三峡库区通航环境的特点和安全形势,分析滚装船运输系统的构成和功能,了解滚装船运输过程和关键操作,分析影响运输安全的因素和危险源。
(3)以风险管理理论为手段,研究三峡库区滚装船运输安全评估的总体框架,提出评估的内容和要求,确定安全评估的基本程序,分析影响评估的主要问题,梳理安全评估的主要理论和方法。
(4)以安全原理理论为基础,研究风险识别、风险分析和风险评价的主要方法,并进行试验应用。
(5)将模拟仿真方法引入到船舶风险分析中,构建模拟分析基本框架,运用船舶水动力理论建立典型船舶运动数学模型,通过实地调研,建立模拟通航环境,运用仿真操作,进行风险分析。
(6)运用事故致因理论、人机安全理论和风险管理理论研究风险控制的框架和主要措施。
The Three Gorges Project attracts the world's attention. After its construction, the fairway conditions in the reservoir area have been improved, and the waterborne transportation has been promoted. Ro-Ro ship is a new type of transportation method following the Three Gorges project's completion. The requirements of the long distance heavy-duty trucking market have stimulated its development reaching 119 ships and 5902 parking spaces. In 2007, Ro-Ro ships carried 392,000 trucks, which were approximately 22.6 percent of the whole cargo in the Three Gorges section. Therefore, Ro-Ro ships have become one of the main transportation methods in the Three Gorges reservoir area.
The safety of Ro-Ro ships affects the whole Three Gorges reservoir area. It is one of the most important parts ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges reservoir area. It is highly concerned by the government and all levels of traffic departments, as well as all circles from international and domestic community.
Safety assessment is a process of hazard identification, risk estimation risk evaluation and control on a transport system. Safety assessment on Ro-Ro ships in the Three Gorges reservoir area has a great practical significance on improving safety management efficiency and level. This thesis includes the following main aspects of research:
1. Introduction and analysis on foreign and domestic research development of Ro-Ro ships transportation in the Three Gorges reservoir area, as well as the general situation and difficulty of safety assessment.
2. Based on the system safety engineering and accident cause theory, this thesis investigated the characteristics and security situation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, analyzed the construction and functions of the Ro-Ro ships' transportation system, introduced the transport process and key operations of the Ro-Ro ship, and analyzed the factors and hazards affecting the transportation security.
3. With the help of risk management theory, this thesis investigated the overall framework of safety assessment on Ro-Ro ships' transportation in the Three Gorges reservoir area, established the contents and requirements of assessment, determined its basic procedures, analyzed its key factors and established its main theories and methods.
4. Based on the safety principle theory, this thesis investigated the main methods of hazard identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and tested their applications.
5. The simulation method was introduced to the ship risk analysis; this thesis established a basic framework of simulation analysis and typical ship kinematical mathematical model using ship hydrodynamic theory. Through the field research, it set up simulated shipping environment and analyzed the risk by simulation operation.
6. This thesis investigated the framework and key measures of risk control by accident caused theory, human-computer security management theory and risk management theory.
三峡库区滚装船的安全关系航运安全,是保障三峡库区水上交通畅通和库区水域清洁的重要组成部分,是政府和各级交通主管部门高度关心和重视的问题,也是国际、国内社会各界非常关注的问题。
安全评估是对运输系统存在的风险进行识别、分析、评价和控制的活动,研究三峡库区滚装船安全评估技术,对改进安全管理效率和提高安全管理水平,具有重大的现实意义。论文的研究工作包括以下几个主要方面:
(1)通过调研和资料搜集工作,了解并分析三峡库区滚装船运输、滚装船发展、国内外相关研究的情况,了解安全评估的发展概况及难点问题。
(2)以系统安全工程和事故致因理论为依托,研究三峡库区通航环境的特点和安全形势,分析滚装船运输系统的构成和功能,了解滚装船运输过程和关键操作,分析影响运输安全的因素和危险源。
(3)以风险管理理论为手段,研究三峡库区滚装船运输安全评估的总体框架,提出评估的内容和要求,确定安全评估的基本程序,分析影响评估的主要问题,梳理安全评估的主要理论和方法。
(4)以安全原理理论为基础,研究风险识别、风险分析和风险评价的主要方法,并进行试验应用。
(5)将模拟仿真方法引入到船舶风险分析中,构建模拟分析基本框架,运用船舶水动力理论建立典型船舶运动数学模型,通过实地调研,建立模拟通航环境,运用仿真操作,进行风险分析。
(6)运用事故致因理论、人机安全理论和风险管理理论研究风险控制的框架和主要措施。
The Three Gorges Project attracts the world's attention. After its construction, the fairway conditions in the reservoir area have been improved, and the waterborne transportation has been promoted. Ro-Ro ship is a new type of transportation method following the Three Gorges project's completion. The requirements of the long distance heavy-duty trucking market have stimulated its development reaching 119 ships and 5902 parking spaces. In 2007, Ro-Ro ships carried 392,000 trucks, which were approximately 22.6 percent of the whole cargo in the Three Gorges section. Therefore, Ro-Ro ships have become one of the main transportation methods in the Three Gorges reservoir area.
The safety of Ro-Ro ships affects the whole Three Gorges reservoir area. It is one of the most important parts ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges reservoir area. It is highly concerned by the government and all levels of traffic departments, as well as all circles from international and domestic community.
Safety assessment is a process of hazard identification, risk estimation risk evaluation and control on a transport system. Safety assessment on Ro-Ro ships in the Three Gorges reservoir area has a great practical significance on improving safety management efficiency and level. This thesis includes the following main aspects of research:
1. Introduction and analysis on foreign and domestic research development of Ro-Ro ships transportation in the Three Gorges reservoir area, as well as the general situation and difficulty of safety assessment.
2. Based on the system safety engineering and accident cause theory, this thesis investigated the characteristics and security situation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, analyzed the construction and functions of the Ro-Ro ships' transportation system, introduced the transport process and key operations of the Ro-Ro ship, and analyzed the factors and hazards affecting the transportation security.
3. With the help of risk management theory, this thesis investigated the overall framework of safety assessment on Ro-Ro ships' transportation in the Three Gorges reservoir area, established the contents and requirements of assessment, determined its basic procedures, analyzed its key factors and established its main theories and methods.
4. Based on the safety principle theory, this thesis investigated the main methods of hazard identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and tested their applications.
5. The simulation method was introduced to the ship risk analysis; this thesis established a basic framework of simulation analysis and typical ship kinematical mathematical model using ship hydrodynamic theory. Through the field research, it set up simulated shipping environment and analyzed the risk by simulation operation.
6. This thesis investigated the framework and key measures of risk control by accident caused theory, human-computer security management theory and risk management theory.
引文
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