摘要
近年来,随着商品住宅市场的发展,商品住宅价格受到各方的关注。为了能够加深对商品住宅市场的认识,本文以赣州市作为研究区域,运用灰色系统的研究方法,对商品住宅价格进行预测,并通过定性与定量分析相结合的方法研究部分商品住宅价格宏观因素,从而更好的了解未来商品住宅市场的走势,探求稳定市场价格的因素,为购房者、开发商的决策及政府的调控提供参考。
本文首先从商品住宅价格走势、居民居住现状、市场供求状况及市场存在问题等方面对赣州市的商品住宅市场进行了简单介绍。
接着介绍了灰色系统理论的基本知识和灰色系统建模方法;再接着建立了赣州市的商品住宅价格的灰色残差GM(1,1)模型,对商品住宅价格进行预测,并对模型进行了程序设计。
再其次对商品住宅价格的影响因素进行定量与定性相结合的分析,选取了地区生产总值、城市居民人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、房地产开发企业国内贷款、房地产开发投资额、家庭户数、房地产开发企业本年购置土地面积及一年期贷款利率8个宏观影响因素,在对影响因素进行定性分析的基础上,建立灰色GM(1,N)模型对影响因素进行定量研究。结果表明:GDP、房地产开发投资额、房地产开发企业本年购置土地面积对赣州市商品住宅价格的影响最显著,而居民消费价格指数和家庭户数对商品住宅价格影响较小。
最后结合前面的分析,为政府进行商品住宅价格的事先和事中调控提供指导,并提出商品住宅市场宏观调控的政策建议。
In recent years, with the development of commercial housing market, the price of commercial housing has attracted the attention of all circles. In order to strengthen the cognition of commercial housing market,this paper’s study area is Ganzhou, uses the research method of gray system, forecasts the price of commercial housing, and through the combining qualitative and quantitative method to researches some macro-influencing factors of commercial housing price. Accordingly, better understanding the trend of commercial housing markets, seeks the factors to stabilize the market price, makes reference for buyers、developers and government’s macro-control.
Firstly, this paper briefly introduces Ganzhou's commercial housing market form the aspects of commercial housing price trend、living present situation、market supply and demand situation and market issues and so on.
Then introduces the basic knowledge of gray system theory and gray system modeling method; and establishes grey residual error GM (1, 1) model of Ganzhou’s commercial housing price, forecasts the commercial housing price, moreover designs a program for model.
Once again, it analyses the influencing factors of commercial housing price associate with qualitatively and quantitatively method, and selects eight macro-influencing factors, which are regional gross product, per capita dispensable income of urban residents, residents consumer price index, domestic loans of real estate development enterprises, investment of real estate development, number of family households, area of land purchased this year by real estate development enterprises and one-year loan interest rate. On the basis of qualitative analysis to these influencing factors, it builds gray GM (1, N) model to quantitatively research these factors. The result indicates that GDP, investment of real estate development and area of land purchased this year by real estate development enterprises have remarkable influence to Ganzhou’s commercial housing price, but residents consumer price index and number of family households have less influence to commercial housing price.
At last, this paper associates the analysis above, provides guidance for the commercial price’s macro-control, and offers policy advices of commercial housing market’s macro-control.
引文
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