贸易收支调节中货币升值与通胀的替代关系研究
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摘要
从理论上讲,本币升值和国内物价上涨都有抑制出口的作用,但是,在近几年我国人民币升值和物价上涨同时存在的情况下,我国的贸易顺差似乎并没有减少。究竟人民币汇率水平和物价水平的变动对我国贸易收支造成的影响如何,本文拟就上述问题运用定性与定量分析,理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法做相关的探讨。
本文首先对贸易收支调节中汇率与物价关系的理论进行介绍,然后利用协整检验、误差修正模型和自回归分布滞后模型,采用2005年8月至2008年12月的月度数据,分别以中国与美国、日本、韩国、香港地区、英国、俄罗斯、加拿大、印度八个主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易收支和中国总量贸易收支为样本,对贸易收支、人民币汇率和国内外通货膨胀进行实证分析。结果表明:中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的人民币双边汇率升值与中国居民消费价格指数上涨均能减小双边贸易顺差,与理论分析相符,即在双边贸易收支调节中人民币升值与中国通货膨胀有替代性;中国与其余四国的双边样本中,人民币升值与中国通货膨胀对双边贸易收支的作用并不一致;中国贸易收支总量与人民币名义有效汇率、中国居民消费价格指数存在长期协整关系,但人民币名义有效汇率上升会促进贸易收支顺差,居民消费价格指数上升能减小贸易收支顺差。
人民币升值和国内通货膨胀在中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的双边贸易样本中均体现出了减少贸易收支顺差的作用,说明人民币升值和通货膨胀对贸易收支有一定的调节力。要调节我国的贸易收支,仅寄希望于人民币大幅升值或通货膨胀大幅上涨都是不可行的,我国应该保持人民币稳步升值和适度通货膨胀,并采取一系列综合措施。
In theory, the currency appreciation and domestic inflation can reduce exports. In recent years, the appreciation of RMB and price rising exist at the same time. However, China's trade surplus does not seem to have a tendency to reduce. Whether the changes of RMB exchange rate and price have impacts on China's trade balance or not, we try to use the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis means to discuss the relationship between them.
In this thesis, we first introduced the relationship between exchange rate and price in the trade balance adjustment theory. And then, we use cointegration tests, error correction model and the autoregressive distributed lag model to discuss China’s bilateral trade with her major trading partners in eight countries, and China's total trade balance. The eight major trading partners are United States, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Britain, Russia, Canada and India. The paper analyses the relationships of the trade balance of China, the RMB exchange rate and inflation at home and abroad based on empirical test. Empirical results show that: the bilateral exchange rate of RMB appreciation and the Consumer Price Index up in China are able to reduce the bilateral trade surplus in China and South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom bilateral samples. These are in line with the theoretical analysis. In other words, there are substitution effects between the appreciation of RMB and China's inflation in China’s bilateral trade balance adjustment with the three countries. The empirical analysis between China and the rest five countries is not uniform. There is a long-term co-integration in the China’s total trade balance, nominal effective exchange rate of RMB, China's Consumer Price Index. However, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB promoted the trade surplus, while the rising of the Consumer Price Index reduced the trade surplus.
RMB appreciation and domestic inflation in China reduce the trade surplus between China’s bilateral trade balance with South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom.This shows that the appreciation of RMB and inflation have a certain impact on the trade balance. However, in order to reduce China's trade surplus, it is not feasible, if we only rely on the sharp appreciation of RMB or significant increases in inflation. China should maintain a steady appreciation of the RMB and moderate inflation, and take a series of comprehensive measures. China's steady appreciation of the RMB should be taken and the policy of moderate inflation, as well as comprehensive measures more favorable.
本文首先对贸易收支调节中汇率与物价关系的理论进行介绍,然后利用协整检验、误差修正模型和自回归分布滞后模型,采用2005年8月至2008年12月的月度数据,分别以中国与美国、日本、韩国、香港地区、英国、俄罗斯、加拿大、印度八个主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易收支和中国总量贸易收支为样本,对贸易收支、人民币汇率和国内外通货膨胀进行实证分析。结果表明:中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的人民币双边汇率升值与中国居民消费价格指数上涨均能减小双边贸易顺差,与理论分析相符,即在双边贸易收支调节中人民币升值与中国通货膨胀有替代性;中国与其余四国的双边样本中,人民币升值与中国通货膨胀对双边贸易收支的作用并不一致;中国贸易收支总量与人民币名义有效汇率、中国居民消费价格指数存在长期协整关系,但人民币名义有效汇率上升会促进贸易收支顺差,居民消费价格指数上升能减小贸易收支顺差。
人民币升值和国内通货膨胀在中国与韩国、加拿大、印度、英国的双边贸易样本中均体现出了减少贸易收支顺差的作用,说明人民币升值和通货膨胀对贸易收支有一定的调节力。要调节我国的贸易收支,仅寄希望于人民币大幅升值或通货膨胀大幅上涨都是不可行的,我国应该保持人民币稳步升值和适度通货膨胀,并采取一系列综合措施。
In theory, the currency appreciation and domestic inflation can reduce exports. In recent years, the appreciation of RMB and price rising exist at the same time. However, China's trade surplus does not seem to have a tendency to reduce. Whether the changes of RMB exchange rate and price have impacts on China's trade balance or not, we try to use the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis means to discuss the relationship between them.
In this thesis, we first introduced the relationship between exchange rate and price in the trade balance adjustment theory. And then, we use cointegration tests, error correction model and the autoregressive distributed lag model to discuss China’s bilateral trade with her major trading partners in eight countries, and China's total trade balance. The eight major trading partners are United States, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Britain, Russia, Canada and India. The paper analyses the relationships of the trade balance of China, the RMB exchange rate and inflation at home and abroad based on empirical test. Empirical results show that: the bilateral exchange rate of RMB appreciation and the Consumer Price Index up in China are able to reduce the bilateral trade surplus in China and South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom bilateral samples. These are in line with the theoretical analysis. In other words, there are substitution effects between the appreciation of RMB and China's inflation in China’s bilateral trade balance adjustment with the three countries. The empirical analysis between China and the rest five countries is not uniform. There is a long-term co-integration in the China’s total trade balance, nominal effective exchange rate of RMB, China's Consumer Price Index. However, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB promoted the trade surplus, while the rising of the Consumer Price Index reduced the trade surplus.
RMB appreciation and domestic inflation in China reduce the trade surplus between China’s bilateral trade balance with South Korea, Canada, India and United Kingdom.This shows that the appreciation of RMB and inflation have a certain impact on the trade balance. However, in order to reduce China's trade surplus, it is not feasible, if we only rely on the sharp appreciation of RMB or significant increases in inflation. China should maintain a steady appreciation of the RMB and moderate inflation, and take a series of comprehensive measures. China's steady appreciation of the RMB should be taken and the policy of moderate inflation, as well as comprehensive measures more favorable.
引文
[1] Leith, J.Clark. The Exchange Rate and the Price Level in a Small Open Economy: Botswana.Journal of Policy Modeling, 1991, (21): 56-68
[2] Yoonbai Kim. Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 1990, 22: 491-503.
[3] Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Taggert J.Brooks. Bilateral J-curve Between US and her Trading Partners. Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 1999,135(1): 156-165
[4] Win Lin Chou, Chi-Chur Chao. Are Currency Devaluations Effective? A Panel unit Root Test. Economic Letters, 2001, 72(1): 19– 25
[5] Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee. Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance. Applied Economics, 2001, 33: 103-111
[6] Tarlok Singh. India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2002, 24: 437-452
[7] Khim-sen Liew, Kian - Ping Lim, Huzaimi Hussain. Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries [R]. International Trade, 2003, No. 0307003.
[8] Marc A. Miles.The effects of devaluation on the trade balance and the balance of payment:some new results.Journal of Political Economy,1979,87(3): 600-620
[9] Rose A.K., Yellen J.L. Is this a J-curve?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24(1): 53-68
[10] Rose A.K. The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the“Marshall-Lerner”Condition Hold?. Journal of International Economics, 1991, 30(3-4): 301-316
[11] Marwah K., Klein L.R. Estimation of J-curves: United States and Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics,1996,29(3): 523-539
[12] Wilson P., Exchange rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies-Does the J-curve Exit for Singapore, Malaysia and Korea. Open Economies Reviews, 2001,12 :389-413.
[13]胡援成.人民币实际汇率与购买力平价.当代财经, 2003,(2): 40-45
[14]封北麟.汇率传递效应与宏观经济冲击对通货膨胀的影响分析.世界经济研究, 2006,(12): 45-51
[15]肖四如.汇率与物价总水平的运动.价格月刊, 1991,(11): 1-6
[16]卜永祥.人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响.金融研究,2001,(3): 78-88
[17]李洁.人民币实际有效汇率对中国出口贸易的影响.上海市经济管理干部学院学报, 2005,(2): 14-17
[18]马丹,许少强.中国贸易收支、贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率.数量经济技术经济研究, 2005,(6): 23-42
[19]任缙.人民币汇率变动与我国国际贸易收支关系的弹性分析.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版), 2005,(8): 145-149
[20]宿玉海,黄鑫.人民币名义汇率与中国对欧元区国家出口的关系.财经科学, 2006,(4): 16-22
[21]辜岚.人民币双边汇率与我国贸易收支关系的实证研究:1997-2004.经济科学, 2006,(1): 65-73
[22]范方志,赵大平.人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析.中央财经大学学报, 2006,(2): 25-31
[23]林清泉,杨丰.中国进出口贸易的J曲线效应分析.数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(11): 96-105
[24]刘伟,胡兵,李传昭.财政赤字、实际有效汇率与贸易收支——基于中国数据的实证检验.管理世界, 2007,(4): 32-39
[25]陈学彬,刘明学,董益盈.人民币实际汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响——主要市场双边贸易收支的实证研究.复旦大学(社会科学版), 2007,(6): 1-9
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[27]戴世宏.人民币汇率与中日贸易收支实证研究.金融研究, 2006(6): 150-158
[28]王晓雷.基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究,当代财经, 2007,(12): 88-95
[29]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支.世界经济, 2002,(9): 27-34
[30]任兆璋,宁忠忠.人民币实际汇率与贸易收支实证分析.现代财经, 2004(11): 29-33
[31]殷德生.中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性.世界经济研究, 2004,(11): 47-53
[32]强永昌,吴兢,陈爱玮,胡晓华.有关人民币汇率问题的对外贸易分析.世界经济研究, 2004,(8): 4-9
[33]尹翔硕,俞娟.论汇率变动与贸易收支的决定因素——从日本的教训看人民币汇率问题,世界经济研究, 2004,(2): 70-73
[34]沈国兵.美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析.当代财经, 2005,(1): 43-47
[35]贺力平,范言慧,范小航.美元汇率与美国国际收支平衡:变动的关系及初步解释.金融研究, 2006,(7): 1-12
[36]叶永刚,胡利琴,黄斌.人民币实际有效汇率和对外贸易收支的关系——中美和中日双边贸易收支的实证研究.金融研究, 2006,(4): 1-11
[37]李煌.人民币实际汇率及其对中日贸易影响分析.商场现代化, 2006,(1): 11-12
[38]任云鹏,高琦.人民币汇率与贸易收支关系的实证分析.商场现代化, 2007,(12): 389-390
[39]郝雁.中国对美贸易顺差与汇率之间关系的实证分析.广东社会科学, 2007,(5): 41-45
[40]黄万阳.人民币实际汇率波动与中国对美出口.大连海事大学学报(社会科学版), 2008,(5): 32-35
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[2] Yoonbai Kim. Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 1990, 22: 491-503.
[3] Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Taggert J.Brooks. Bilateral J-curve Between US and her Trading Partners. Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 1999,135(1): 156-165
[4] Win Lin Chou, Chi-Chur Chao. Are Currency Devaluations Effective? A Panel unit Root Test. Economic Letters, 2001, 72(1): 19– 25
[5] Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee. Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance. Applied Economics, 2001, 33: 103-111
[6] Tarlok Singh. India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2002, 24: 437-452
[7] Khim-sen Liew, Kian - Ping Lim, Huzaimi Hussain. Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries [R]. International Trade, 2003, No. 0307003.
[8] Marc A. Miles.The effects of devaluation on the trade balance and the balance of payment:some new results.Journal of Political Economy,1979,87(3): 600-620
[9] Rose A.K., Yellen J.L. Is this a J-curve?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24(1): 53-68
[10] Rose A.K. The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the“Marshall-Lerner”Condition Hold?. Journal of International Economics, 1991, 30(3-4): 301-316
[11] Marwah K., Klein L.R. Estimation of J-curves: United States and Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics,1996,29(3): 523-539
[12] Wilson P., Exchange rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies-Does the J-curve Exit for Singapore, Malaysia and Korea. Open Economies Reviews, 2001,12 :389-413.
[13]胡援成.人民币实际汇率与购买力平价.当代财经, 2003,(2): 40-45
[14]封北麟.汇率传递效应与宏观经济冲击对通货膨胀的影响分析.世界经济研究, 2006,(12): 45-51
[15]肖四如.汇率与物价总水平的运动.价格月刊, 1991,(11): 1-6
[16]卜永祥.人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响.金融研究,2001,(3): 78-88
[17]李洁.人民币实际有效汇率对中国出口贸易的影响.上海市经济管理干部学院学报, 2005,(2): 14-17
[18]马丹,许少强.中国贸易收支、贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率.数量经济技术经济研究, 2005,(6): 23-42
[19]任缙.人民币汇率变动与我国国际贸易收支关系的弹性分析.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版), 2005,(8): 145-149
[20]宿玉海,黄鑫.人民币名义汇率与中国对欧元区国家出口的关系.财经科学, 2006,(4): 16-22
[21]辜岚.人民币双边汇率与我国贸易收支关系的实证研究:1997-2004.经济科学, 2006,(1): 65-73
[22]范方志,赵大平.人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析.中央财经大学学报, 2006,(2): 25-31
[23]林清泉,杨丰.中国进出口贸易的J曲线效应分析.数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(11): 96-105
[24]刘伟,胡兵,李传昭.财政赤字、实际有效汇率与贸易收支——基于中国数据的实证检验.管理世界, 2007,(4): 32-39
[25]陈学彬,刘明学,董益盈.人民币实际汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响——主要市场双边贸易收支的实证研究.复旦大学(社会科学版), 2007,(6): 1-9
[26]沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析.国际经贸探索, 2004: 11-16
[27]戴世宏.人民币汇率与中日贸易收支实证研究.金融研究, 2006(6): 150-158
[28]王晓雷.基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究,当代财经, 2007,(12): 88-95
[29]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支.世界经济, 2002,(9): 27-34
[30]任兆璋,宁忠忠.人民币实际汇率与贸易收支实证分析.现代财经, 2004(11): 29-33
[31]殷德生.中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性.世界经济研究, 2004,(11): 47-53
[32]强永昌,吴兢,陈爱玮,胡晓华.有关人民币汇率问题的对外贸易分析.世界经济研究, 2004,(8): 4-9
[33]尹翔硕,俞娟.论汇率变动与贸易收支的决定因素——从日本的教训看人民币汇率问题,世界经济研究, 2004,(2): 70-73
[34]沈国兵.美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析.当代财经, 2005,(1): 43-47
[35]贺力平,范言慧,范小航.美元汇率与美国国际收支平衡:变动的关系及初步解释.金融研究, 2006,(7): 1-12
[36]叶永刚,胡利琴,黄斌.人民币实际有效汇率和对外贸易收支的关系——中美和中日双边贸易收支的实证研究.金融研究, 2006,(4): 1-11
[37]李煌.人民币实际汇率及其对中日贸易影响分析.商场现代化, 2006,(1): 11-12
[38]任云鹏,高琦.人民币汇率与贸易收支关系的实证分析.商场现代化, 2007,(12): 389-390
[39]郝雁.中国对美贸易顺差与汇率之间关系的实证分析.广东社会科学, 2007,(5): 41-45
[40]黄万阳.人民币实际汇率波动与中国对美出口.大连海事大学学报(社会科学版), 2008,(5): 32-35
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