CA-MARKOV模型与GIS、RS在土地利用/土地覆盖变化中的应用研究
摘要
土地是人类生活和生产建设的场所,是人类赖以生存发展的基础。土地作为一种自然综合体必然会受到自然规律的约束和人类活动的影响,而土地利用/土地覆盖就是土地受此影响所具有的属性。从上世纪九十年代开始,土地利用/土地覆盖的研究逐渐成为了国内外研究的热点。其中的土地利用时空变化研究是土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的重点领域之一。然而,目前大部分的研究都集中于以大城市作为研究对象,对县域的研究还比较薄弱。同时,随着我国新一轮土地利用规划工作的开始,对于县域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究可以为土地合理规划、管理和使用提供有力工具,并为规划修编提供新的思路。
CA模型对空间复杂系统变化的模拟能力与MARKOV在数量预测方面的优势相结合而生成的CA-MARKOV模型,以及GIS、RS、GPS等空间技术的快速发展,使得对土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究更加精确。本文就是基于CA-MARKOV与GIS、RS对枣阳市的土地利用/土地覆盖变化进行研究。本文以枣阳市作为研究区,依据三期的TM影像与DEM数据,使用了ERDAS、ARCGIS、IDRISI强大的空间分析功能,对枣阳市土地利用现状、土地利用数量变化特征、土地利用动态度进行了分析,并重点研究了土地利用与地形因素、行政中心因素、交通因素的关系,以此来对IDRISI生成的土地利用适宜性图像集进行修正,应用CA-MARKOV模型模拟另一时段的枣阳市土地利用现状,得到了较好的模拟结果,针对预测的结果提出了相应的对策。最后,对本文研究中所存在的问题与还需进一步研究的方面进行了分析总结。
通过对枣阳市的模拟证明,将CA-MARKOV模型应用于县域土地利用/土地覆盖研究是可行的,可以应用于同类其他区域的土地利用/土地覆盖研究。
Land is the place of living, production and construction for human being, it is the basis for the development of humankind. As a natural complex, land is bound to be bound by the laws of nature and human activities, and land use/land cover is the attributes of land thus affected. Starting from the nineties of last century, the study on land use/land cover has become a hot research at home and abroad, in which land use change in space and time is one of the priority areas of land use/land cover change. However, most of the studies focus on choosing large cities as the object of study, research on the county is still relatively weak. Meanwhile, as China's new round of land use planning has started, studies on Land Use/Land Cover Changes on the counties could provide a powerful tool for land planning, management and use, and could provide new ideas for planning and revision.
CA-MARKOV model, generated by the combination of the capability of simulating changes in complex systems of space of CA model and the advantage of quantity forecast of MARKOV, as well as the rapid development of GIS, RS, GPS and other space technologies, make the study on the land use/land cover change more accurate. This article is to do some research on land use/land cover change of Zaoyang City based on CA-MARKOV、GIS and RS.
In this paper, Zaoyang City is selected as the study area, based on the three times of the TM image and DEM data, by the powerful spatial analysis function of ERDAS, ARCGIS, IDRISI, land use status, land use change features in the number, land use dynamics of Zaoyang City were analyzed with an emphasis on the relation among land use and topographic factors, the factors of administrative center, traffic factors an so on to amend the land use suitability image generated by IDRISI; another period time of land use status of Zaoyang City was simulated by the application of CA-MARKOV model, and a better results was gained. Countermeasures were proposed against the predicted results. Finally, problems in this paper that need to be further studied were analyzed and summarized.
The simulation of Zaoyang City proved, the application of CA-MARKOV model to research on county land use/land cover is feasible, and it could be applied to other similar areas on land use/land cover studies.
CA模型对空间复杂系统变化的模拟能力与MARKOV在数量预测方面的优势相结合而生成的CA-MARKOV模型,以及GIS、RS、GPS等空间技术的快速发展,使得对土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究更加精确。本文就是基于CA-MARKOV与GIS、RS对枣阳市的土地利用/土地覆盖变化进行研究。本文以枣阳市作为研究区,依据三期的TM影像与DEM数据,使用了ERDAS、ARCGIS、IDRISI强大的空间分析功能,对枣阳市土地利用现状、土地利用数量变化特征、土地利用动态度进行了分析,并重点研究了土地利用与地形因素、行政中心因素、交通因素的关系,以此来对IDRISI生成的土地利用适宜性图像集进行修正,应用CA-MARKOV模型模拟另一时段的枣阳市土地利用现状,得到了较好的模拟结果,针对预测的结果提出了相应的对策。最后,对本文研究中所存在的问题与还需进一步研究的方面进行了分析总结。
通过对枣阳市的模拟证明,将CA-MARKOV模型应用于县域土地利用/土地覆盖研究是可行的,可以应用于同类其他区域的土地利用/土地覆盖研究。
Land is the place of living, production and construction for human being, it is the basis for the development of humankind. As a natural complex, land is bound to be bound by the laws of nature and human activities, and land use/land cover is the attributes of land thus affected. Starting from the nineties of last century, the study on land use/land cover has become a hot research at home and abroad, in which land use change in space and time is one of the priority areas of land use/land cover change. However, most of the studies focus on choosing large cities as the object of study, research on the county is still relatively weak. Meanwhile, as China's new round of land use planning has started, studies on Land Use/Land Cover Changes on the counties could provide a powerful tool for land planning, management and use, and could provide new ideas for planning and revision.
CA-MARKOV model, generated by the combination of the capability of simulating changes in complex systems of space of CA model and the advantage of quantity forecast of MARKOV, as well as the rapid development of GIS, RS, GPS and other space technologies, make the study on the land use/land cover change more accurate. This article is to do some research on land use/land cover change of Zaoyang City based on CA-MARKOV、GIS and RS.
In this paper, Zaoyang City is selected as the study area, based on the three times of the TM image and DEM data, by the powerful spatial analysis function of ERDAS, ARCGIS, IDRISI, land use status, land use change features in the number, land use dynamics of Zaoyang City were analyzed with an emphasis on the relation among land use and topographic factors, the factors of administrative center, traffic factors an so on to amend the land use suitability image generated by IDRISI; another period time of land use status of Zaoyang City was simulated by the application of CA-MARKOV model, and a better results was gained. Countermeasures were proposed against the predicted results. Finally, problems in this paper that need to be further studied were analyzed and summarized.
The simulation of Zaoyang City proved, the application of CA-MARKOV model to research on county land use/land cover is feasible, and it could be applied to other similar areas on land use/land cover studies.
引文
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2.陈龙泉,郑海金.基于Markov—CA的土地利用／土地覆盖变化动态模型研究[J].测绘信息与工程,2004,29(2)：36-37.
3.陈平留,黄清麟.应用马尔可夫链分析预测福建以林为主的土利用趋势[J].自然资源学报,1992,7(1)：36-42.
4.戴淼,向亚丽.灰色马尔可夫模型的建设用地预测[J].国土资源科技管理,2007,24：101-103.
5.何春阳,史培军,陈晋等.基于系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究.中国科学(D),2005,35(5)：464-473.
6.何瑞珍等.基于马尔可夫模型的郑州市土地利用动态变化预测[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(9)：435-437.
7.侯西勇,常斌,于信芳.基于CA-MARKOV的河西走廊土地利用变化研究[J].农业工程学报,2004,20(5)：286-291.
8.贾华,祝国瑞,佐藤洋平.土地利用变化研究中的细胞自动机与灰色局势决策[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1998,23(2)：149-152.
9.蒋文伟,管宇,刘彤等.利用Markov过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化[J].浙江林学院学报,2004,21(3)：309-312.
10.李才伟.元胞自动机及复杂系统的时空动态模拟,武汉：华中理工大学,1997.
11.李吉英.基于GIS的土地利用变化及驱动力研究.[硕士学位论文].东北农业大学,2006,4：3-4.
12.黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化以模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟[J].地理学报,1999,54(4)：159-166.
13.黎夏,叶嘉安.单元自动演化模型自动生成农田保护区的研究[J].中国环境科学.2000,20(4)：318-322.
14.黎夏,叶嘉安.主成分分析与Cellular Automata在空间决策与城市模拟中的应用[J].中国科学(D),2001,31(8)：683-690.
15.黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟[J].地理学报,2002,57(2)：159-166.
16.刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究—基于卫星遥感数据[J].第四纪研究：2000,20(3)：230-239.
17.刘纪远,刘明亮,庄大方.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析[J].中国科学D,2002,12：65-74.
18.刘纪远,刘明亮,庄大方.Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995-2000. Science in China,Ser D,2003,4:69-80.
19.刘耀林,刘艳芳,明冬萍.基于灰色局势决策规则的元胞自动机城市扩展模型[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2004,29(1)：7-13.
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