基于Logit模型的城市家庭住房消费选择研究
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摘要
住房问题是关乎民生的大问题,在我国房地产市场历经十余载快速发展之后,家庭住房消费行为已成为政府和开发商最为关注的问题之一。然而,学术界对中国市场的住房消费行为研究尚不多,有限的研究其数据也相对陈旧,难以真实反映我国城市家庭住房消费的现状。鉴于此,研究我国城市家庭住房消费选择问题具有理论意义和实践价值。
本文在以往学者研究的基础上,构建出综合家庭特征因素、租购成本因素和心理因素的租购选择理论模型。其中,家庭特征因素包括户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、居住时间、家庭人口、劳动力数、家庭年收入、家庭资产共8个自变量;租购成本因素用房价租金比衡量;心理因素包括拥有自有住房的愿望和对租赁市场的不信任。
在研究租购选择之后,本文把总体样本分为购买样本和租赁样本,并从中选取购买样本来研究城市家庭购房类别选择。购房类别选择研究分为面积类别和档次类别,研究的自变量为家庭特征变量(与租购选择研究中的家庭特征变量相同)。其中,购买面积类别选择研究采用的是多元Logit模型,面积类别分为三个层次:90平方米以下、90-140平方米和140平方米以上;购买档次类别选择研究采用的是二元Logit模型,将住房档次划分为经济型住宅和奢侈型住宅两类。
在住房租购选择的变量选取中,根据专家访谈意见,本文创新性的把拥有自有住房的愿望和对租赁市场的不信任作为心理因素放入理论模型,该内容是对住房租购选择研究的深化和补充;在购房类别选择研究中,出于笔者对市场的认识并经过专家访谈,最终把购房档次作为住房类别选择的一个分支进行研究,该内容是对住房类别选择研究的拓展。
文章以杭州六个主城区中拥有本地户籍的居民为研究对象,通过文献研究和专家访谈确定相关研究变量,并通过问卷调查方式获取研究数据。调研范围全面覆盖六个主城区,共发放3000份问卷,历时4月最终收集到2007个有效样本。实证研究的主要结论归纳如下:
一、住房租购选择研究表明,11个自变量中户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、居住时间、家庭人口、劳动力数、家庭资产、房价租金比、拥有自有住房的愿望以及对租赁市场的不信任共10个自变量与城市家庭住房租购选择正相关。另外,租购选择模型估计的R~2为0.731,HL检验的x~2值为20.359(显著性为0.009),预测的准确值达到73.6%,模型具有姣好的拟合优度。
二、购买面积类别选择研究的结果表明,户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、家庭规模、劳动力人数、家庭年收入以及家庭资产等自变量对城市家庭购房面积类别选择产生了显著影响。另外,在不同面积类别之间的选择上,各自变量呈现出更为具体的显著性。
三、购买档次类别选择研究的结果表明,8个自变量中户主学历、居住时间、家庭规模、家庭年收入和家庭资产共5个自变量,对城市家庭购房档次类别选择产生了显著影响。另外,模型预测的准确值达到65.7%,具有较好的拟合优度,符合研究要求。
Housing consumption problem is a major problem affecting people's livelihood in China's real estate market which experienced more than a decade of earthshaking rapid growth, family housing and consumer behavior became one of the issues of greatest concern to developers and government. In addition, the research data in the Chinese market study of housing consumption choices is relatively old. In view of this, investigating which micro-factors affect the urban family housing consumption choices has theoretical significance and practical value.
In this paper, based on previous academic research, we built the tenure choice and housing type choice theoretical framework to identify and investigate the research variables. Among them, the housing category selection and the micro-purchase selection factors include three main categories: family characteristics, hire/purchase costs and psychological factors, including the age of householder, householder's education level, marital status, living in Hang time, family size, labor force number, family yearly income, family assets, the ratio of rent and house price, the desire to purchase a home and distrust to rental market.
Housing type choice studies include the size category and grade of housing types, the independent variables is family characteristics variables (with the same of the family characteristics variables in selection of the hire/purchase). We use multi-Logit model to study selection of house type, categories of size are divided into three levels: below 90 square meters, 90-140 square meters and more than 140 square meters.
In the tenure choice variables selection, according to the advice given by experts in the interviews, our articles innovatively chose the aspirations to home ownership and distrust to rental markets as the psychological factors in research, furthermore, we established the corresponding Logit model based on research needs which deepen the study of housing hire/purchase selection. In category selection study, by reason of the author's knowledge of the market and interviews with experts, we make purchase grade as an optional item which have been studied to reveal by which micro-factors housing grades choice is influenced, which, is the expand of the study of the selection of the housing categories.
This article makes the residents which have registration in urban in Hangzhou as the object of study, we obtained research data through the questionnaire survey method, to extract and identify relevant research variables we made expert interviews. This research covered the six major urban areas of Hangzhou, and collected a total of 2007 effective answer sheets. The main conclusions of empirical studies are summarized as follows:
Firstly, the tenure choice studies have shown that, with the householder's age and assets increases, the possibility to buy houses increased; it is also the same when householder has higher education ,longer living in hang time , larger the family size or more family labor force . Married households tend to buy homes, besides, house prices increased more than the rent costs also increase the likelihood of families to buy houses, on the contrary, the likelihood decreased when the householder has strong aspirations to purchase a house or distrust to the rental market.
Secondly, the housing type choice studies results show that the householder's age, education level,marital status, family size, labor force number, family income and assets had a significant effect on size choice.
Finally, the study of grade chooses was applied by binary Logit model, based on interviews with experts, the housing grade is divided into economy grade and luxury grade. The results show that the householder's education, residence time, family size, family income and assets, has a significant impact on choice of which grade to purchase.
本文在以往学者研究的基础上,构建出综合家庭特征因素、租购成本因素和心理因素的租购选择理论模型。其中,家庭特征因素包括户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、居住时间、家庭人口、劳动力数、家庭年收入、家庭资产共8个自变量;租购成本因素用房价租金比衡量;心理因素包括拥有自有住房的愿望和对租赁市场的不信任。
在研究租购选择之后,本文把总体样本分为购买样本和租赁样本,并从中选取购买样本来研究城市家庭购房类别选择。购房类别选择研究分为面积类别和档次类别,研究的自变量为家庭特征变量(与租购选择研究中的家庭特征变量相同)。其中,购买面积类别选择研究采用的是多元Logit模型,面积类别分为三个层次:90平方米以下、90-140平方米和140平方米以上;购买档次类别选择研究采用的是二元Logit模型,将住房档次划分为经济型住宅和奢侈型住宅两类。
在住房租购选择的变量选取中,根据专家访谈意见,本文创新性的把拥有自有住房的愿望和对租赁市场的不信任作为心理因素放入理论模型,该内容是对住房租购选择研究的深化和补充;在购房类别选择研究中,出于笔者对市场的认识并经过专家访谈,最终把购房档次作为住房类别选择的一个分支进行研究,该内容是对住房类别选择研究的拓展。
文章以杭州六个主城区中拥有本地户籍的居民为研究对象,通过文献研究和专家访谈确定相关研究变量,并通过问卷调查方式获取研究数据。调研范围全面覆盖六个主城区,共发放3000份问卷,历时4月最终收集到2007个有效样本。实证研究的主要结论归纳如下:
一、住房租购选择研究表明,11个自变量中户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、居住时间、家庭人口、劳动力数、家庭资产、房价租金比、拥有自有住房的愿望以及对租赁市场的不信任共10个自变量与城市家庭住房租购选择正相关。另外,租购选择模型估计的R~2为0.731,HL检验的x~2值为20.359(显著性为0.009),预测的准确值达到73.6%,模型具有姣好的拟合优度。
二、购买面积类别选择研究的结果表明,户主年龄、户主学历、婚姻状况、家庭规模、劳动力人数、家庭年收入以及家庭资产等自变量对城市家庭购房面积类别选择产生了显著影响。另外,在不同面积类别之间的选择上,各自变量呈现出更为具体的显著性。
三、购买档次类别选择研究的结果表明,8个自变量中户主学历、居住时间、家庭规模、家庭年收入和家庭资产共5个自变量,对城市家庭购房档次类别选择产生了显著影响。另外,模型预测的准确值达到65.7%,具有较好的拟合优度,符合研究要求。
Housing consumption problem is a major problem affecting people's livelihood in China's real estate market which experienced more than a decade of earthshaking rapid growth, family housing and consumer behavior became one of the issues of greatest concern to developers and government. In addition, the research data in the Chinese market study of housing consumption choices is relatively old. In view of this, investigating which micro-factors affect the urban family housing consumption choices has theoretical significance and practical value.
In this paper, based on previous academic research, we built the tenure choice and housing type choice theoretical framework to identify and investigate the research variables. Among them, the housing category selection and the micro-purchase selection factors include three main categories: family characteristics, hire/purchase costs and psychological factors, including the age of householder, householder's education level, marital status, living in Hang time, family size, labor force number, family yearly income, family assets, the ratio of rent and house price, the desire to purchase a home and distrust to rental market.
Housing type choice studies include the size category and grade of housing types, the independent variables is family characteristics variables (with the same of the family characteristics variables in selection of the hire/purchase). We use multi-Logit model to study selection of house type, categories of size are divided into three levels: below 90 square meters, 90-140 square meters and more than 140 square meters.
In the tenure choice variables selection, according to the advice given by experts in the interviews, our articles innovatively chose the aspirations to home ownership and distrust to rental markets as the psychological factors in research, furthermore, we established the corresponding Logit model based on research needs which deepen the study of housing hire/purchase selection. In category selection study, by reason of the author's knowledge of the market and interviews with experts, we make purchase grade as an optional item which have been studied to reveal by which micro-factors housing grades choice is influenced, which, is the expand of the study of the selection of the housing categories.
This article makes the residents which have registration in urban in Hangzhou as the object of study, we obtained research data through the questionnaire survey method, to extract and identify relevant research variables we made expert interviews. This research covered the six major urban areas of Hangzhou, and collected a total of 2007 effective answer sheets. The main conclusions of empirical studies are summarized as follows:
Firstly, the tenure choice studies have shown that, with the householder's age and assets increases, the possibility to buy houses increased; it is also the same when householder has higher education ,longer living in hang time , larger the family size or more family labor force . Married households tend to buy homes, besides, house prices increased more than the rent costs also increase the likelihood of families to buy houses, on the contrary, the likelihood decreased when the householder has strong aspirations to purchase a house or distrust to the rental market.
Secondly, the housing type choice studies results show that the householder's age, education level,marital status, family size, labor force number, family income and assets had a significant effect on size choice.
Finally, the study of grade chooses was applied by binary Logit model, based on interviews with experts, the housing grade is divided into economy grade and luxury grade. The results show that the householder's education, residence time, family size, family income and assets, has a significant impact on choice of which grade to purchase.
引文
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