甘肃省收费公路投资风险研究
摘要
近年来,甘肃省公路事业发展迅猛,特别是推行“贷款修路,收费还贷”政策以来,甘肃省利用这一政策,多方筹资,修建了一大批收费公路。收费公路的建设,使甘肃省公路里程增加,等级提高,总体水平得到迅速提升,对甘肃省区域经济发展起到巨大推动作用。但是,随着甘肃省收费公路建设规模的不断扩大及在路网中所占比重日益提高,也产生了一些负面影响,如甘肃省收费公路收费总收入低,仅靠收费资金偿还债务风险大。2007年美国爆发次贷危机至今,全球金融危机正对我国实体经济产生严重冲击,最直接的表现就是“惜贷”,即银行不愿向企业提供贷款或提高贷款利率,这对极度依赖银行贷款的收费公路而言,无疑增大了融资难度。我国于2009年1月1日开征燃油税,并计划逐步有序取消二级收费公路。甘肃省收费公路中二级和二级以下收费公路约占85%,这就意味着,如果逐步取消二级收费公路,就会将遗留的风险转移给政府,使得收费公路的债务风险过度的集中于政府部门。同时,甘肃省地处西北内陆,地形地貌复杂多样,收费公路造价高,与东部发达地区相比,融资结构单一,公路车流量相对较小,资金回报率低,成本难以迅速收回。以上因素均使得甘肃省收费公路投资风险远大于其它省份。
鉴于以上情况,如何利用“贷款修路,收费还贷”政策,发展公路建设,消除或减小甘肃省收费公路投资风险,已成为迫切需要研究并解决的问题。为了探求解决以上问题的方法,本论文着重对甘肃省收费公路投资风险和防范对策进行有益的探索。
本论文共分七章。第一章介绍了论文的写作背景、研究意义、国内外研究综述、研究的主要内容、研究的思路与方法;第二章对风险及风险管理理论进行了阐述;第三章介绍了甘肃省收费公路发展现状及存在的问题;第四章对甘肃省收费公路投资风险进行识别;第五章对甘肃省收费公路投资风险进行评估;第六章探讨甘肃省收费公路投资风险应对及监控措施;第七章为结论。
通过对甘肃省收费公路投资风险识别、估计和评价,探讨风险防范对策,为政府及相关部门决策提供依据,使收费公路建设保持合理的负债结构与规模,消除或最可能减小收费公路投资风险,促进甘肃省公路建设事业持续高速发展。
In recent years,the road construction of Gansu grows rapidly,especially after carrying out the policy of“loan to construct the road,charge to return the loaning”.From then on,the local government has utilized the policy and financing in many ways.A lot of turnpikes have been built.Abundant of turnpikes are available which spread all over Gansu.The grade and the overall level are promoted rapidly.This plays a great important role to the economic development of Gansu.However,with the constant enlargement of the scale of the turnpike,some negative effects have been produced. Such as Gansu turnpike fee income is low, only on debt risk fund fees. The 2007 outbreak of the subprime crisis, the global financial crisis is to our economic entity, the most serious impact directly is“arisen”,namely Banks provide loans to companies or improve loan interest rate, which relies heavily on bank lending toll roads, increases the difficulty of financing undoubtedly. Our 1 January 2009, and plans to gradually douments fuel secondary turnpike. Cancel orderly, Toll roads in gansu province secondary and secondary following turnpike about 85%, this means that if gradually cancel secondary toll roads, will be transferred to the left of the risks, the risk of excessive debt toll roads focused on government departments. At the same time, gansu province is located in the northwest, complicated topography, the turnpike cost is high, compared with the developed areas in east, financing structure, highway traffic a relatively small, capital cost is low returns, rapid recovery. Above factors makes the gansu turnpike investment risks than other provinces.
In view of those situation,how to develop road constructions and dispel the investment risk of turnpike by utilizing the policy of“loan to construct the road and charge to return the loaning”has already become the urgent problem which desiderate to be studied and sloved.In order to seek the measure to solve the problem,this paper mainly carries on some beneficial exploration to risk of investment and gets the precaution countermeasure of the turnpike in Gansu.
This thesis divides into seven chapters. The first chapter of the thesis writing background, significance, both at home and abroad were reviewed, the main research contents, the research methods and research thinking;The second chapter is about risk and risk management theory;The third chapter in Gansu province turnpike development situation and existing problems;The fourth chapter writes about Gansu turnpike investment risk identification;The fifth chapter discusses Gansu turnpike investment risk assessment; The sixth chapter discusses toll roads to gansu province investment risks and monitoring. Chapter 7 for the conclusion.
Based on toll roads in Gansu province investment risk identification, risk estimate and evaluation, discusses the countermeasures for government and related departments to provide basis for decision-making, make turnpike maintain reasonable debt structure and scale, most likely to eliminate or reduce investment risks and promoting the toll roads in Gansu province highway construction cause rapid and sustained development.
鉴于以上情况,如何利用“贷款修路,收费还贷”政策,发展公路建设,消除或减小甘肃省收费公路投资风险,已成为迫切需要研究并解决的问题。为了探求解决以上问题的方法,本论文着重对甘肃省收费公路投资风险和防范对策进行有益的探索。
本论文共分七章。第一章介绍了论文的写作背景、研究意义、国内外研究综述、研究的主要内容、研究的思路与方法;第二章对风险及风险管理理论进行了阐述;第三章介绍了甘肃省收费公路发展现状及存在的问题;第四章对甘肃省收费公路投资风险进行识别;第五章对甘肃省收费公路投资风险进行评估;第六章探讨甘肃省收费公路投资风险应对及监控措施;第七章为结论。
通过对甘肃省收费公路投资风险识别、估计和评价,探讨风险防范对策,为政府及相关部门决策提供依据,使收费公路建设保持合理的负债结构与规模,消除或最可能减小收费公路投资风险,促进甘肃省公路建设事业持续高速发展。
In recent years,the road construction of Gansu grows rapidly,especially after carrying out the policy of“loan to construct the road,charge to return the loaning”.From then on,the local government has utilized the policy and financing in many ways.A lot of turnpikes have been built.Abundant of turnpikes are available which spread all over Gansu.The grade and the overall level are promoted rapidly.This plays a great important role to the economic development of Gansu.However,with the constant enlargement of the scale of the turnpike,some negative effects have been produced. Such as Gansu turnpike fee income is low, only on debt risk fund fees. The 2007 outbreak of the subprime crisis, the global financial crisis is to our economic entity, the most serious impact directly is“arisen”,namely Banks provide loans to companies or improve loan interest rate, which relies heavily on bank lending toll roads, increases the difficulty of financing undoubtedly. Our 1 January 2009, and plans to gradually douments fuel secondary turnpike. Cancel orderly, Toll roads in gansu province secondary and secondary following turnpike about 85%, this means that if gradually cancel secondary toll roads, will be transferred to the left of the risks, the risk of excessive debt toll roads focused on government departments. At the same time, gansu province is located in the northwest, complicated topography, the turnpike cost is high, compared with the developed areas in east, financing structure, highway traffic a relatively small, capital cost is low returns, rapid recovery. Above factors makes the gansu turnpike investment risks than other provinces.
In view of those situation,how to develop road constructions and dispel the investment risk of turnpike by utilizing the policy of“loan to construct the road and charge to return the loaning”has already become the urgent problem which desiderate to be studied and sloved.In order to seek the measure to solve the problem,this paper mainly carries on some beneficial exploration to risk of investment and gets the precaution countermeasure of the turnpike in Gansu.
This thesis divides into seven chapters. The first chapter of the thesis writing background, significance, both at home and abroad were reviewed, the main research contents, the research methods and research thinking;The second chapter is about risk and risk management theory;The third chapter in Gansu province turnpike development situation and existing problems;The fourth chapter writes about Gansu turnpike investment risk identification;The fifth chapter discusses Gansu turnpike investment risk assessment; The sixth chapter discusses toll roads to gansu province investment risks and monitoring. Chapter 7 for the conclusion.
Based on toll roads in Gansu province investment risk identification, risk estimate and evaluation, discusses the countermeasures for government and related departments to provide basis for decision-making, make turnpike maintain reasonable debt structure and scale, most likely to eliminate or reduce investment risks and promoting the toll roads in Gansu province highway construction cause rapid and sustained development.
引文
[1]阎长俊等.建设项目风险研究综述[J].沈阳建设工程学院学报.2002.1;
[2] Carl L.Pritchard.Risk Management Concept andGuidance[M].Arlington Virginia:ESI international,1997,(7):124-159;
[3]卢有杰.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998,35-50;
[4]宋冬梅.基于模糊理论的BOT项目风险评价[J].建筑管理现代化. 2005.4;
[5]於永和.BOT项目投标决策模型及其应用研究[D].湖南大学.2006;
[6]贾元华.我国高速公路建设发展的绩效与评价[J].北京交通大学学报. 2005.6;
[7]刘焰.我国高速公路股份公司风险管理模式研究[J].武汉理工大学学报.2005.3;
[8]张正华.我国高速收费公路项目融资的风险及其防范[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版).2005.4;
[9]李洪刚.公路工程项目投资风险评价与控制研究[D].天津大学.2001;
[10]安雅琴.项目投资风险分析的研究[D].上海第二医科大学.2001;
[11]余晓珊.公路建设项目投资前期管理研究[D].华南理工大学,2001;
[12] Raftery,J.Risk analysis in project management,London:F&FN Spon,1994;
[13]同济大学.建设部标准研究所.政府投资项目经济评价方法与参数研究[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2004;
[14]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2002;
[15]卢有杰等.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998;
[16]连郡.管理工程学(上册)[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社.1998;
[17]刘尹生.建设项目管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2004;
[18]邱宛华.现代项目管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2002;
[19]王雷等.浅谈工程项目风险管理[M].北京:水利电力机械.2005;
[20]项贻明.高速公路规划与管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社.1999;
[21]周荣峰.中国收费公路发展政策研究[D].长安大学.2002;
[22]周新垣.四川高速公路管理研究[D].四川大学.2002;
[23]孟黔灵.高速公路建设项目财务评价研究[D].武汉理工大学.2002;
[24]马锋.工程项目风险管理理论与实践[D].西南交通大学.2003;
[25]刘丽.工程项目风险分析与风险管理[D].大连理工大学.2003;
[26]张北平.湖北省收费公路投资风险及对策研究[D].武汉理工大学.2004;
[27]程艳.西部公路基础设施建设问题与对策研究[D].长安大学.2006;
[28]王哗.高速公路项目投资风险管理[D].北京邮电大学.2007;
[29]吴瑞.高速公路项目投资风险预警系统研究[D].同济大学.2008;
[30]王哗.高速公路项目投资风险管理[D].北京邮电大学.2007;
[31]陈岩.公路工程项目风险管理研究[D].东北大学.2006;
[32]李颜娟.收费公路发展战略研究[D].长安大学.2006;
[33]收费公路[N].中国交通报.2003.11.04;
[34]李世蓉.建设项目风险管理的基本过程与特点[J].四川建筑. 2003;
[35]马锋等.风险管理理论在工程建设决策中的应用[J].四川建筑.2004;
[36]赵延军.建设项目风险管理理论的应用[J].武汉城市建设学院学报.2004;
[37] Bennt P.Lientz,Kathryn P.Rea.Project Management For the 21#Century[J].Third Edition. California: Academic Press,2002;
[38] Melvin W.Lifson,Edward F.Shaifer,JR.Decision and Construction Management[J]. AWiley- Interscience Pulication JOHN Risk Analysis for WILEY&SONS, 1992;
[39] Tummala. V. M. Rao, Burchett. John F. Applying a risk management process (RMP) to manage cost risk for an EHV transmission line project[J].International Journal ofProject Management. 1999;
[40] Miller. R,Lessard.D.Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management.2001;
[41] Ward.Stephen,Chapman.Chris.Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management[J]. International Journal of Project Management. 2003;
[42] Patterson.Fiona D,Neailey.Kevin.A risk register database system to aid themanagement of project risk[J].International Journal of Project Management. 2002;
[43] Shen.L.Y.Project risk management in Hong Kong[J].International Journal of Project Management.l997;
[44]刘冬梅.建筑工程项目施工中的风险管理[J].福建建筑.2003;
[45]华雪峰.公路工程项目风险管理的初步探讨[J].黑龙江交通科技.2005;
[46]侯立新.工程风险管理的因素及其防范对策[J].建筑施工.2003;
[47]孟庆钧.建筑工程风险的分析与防范[J].安装.2005;
[48]曹玉明.浅谈公路施工企业经营风险与风险防范[J].经济问题.2002;
[49]李晓宇等.工程项目风险评价体系研究[J].科技进步与对策.2005;
[50]张丽霞等.工程项目风险指标体系及综合评价研究[J].新疆农业大学学报. 2005;
[51]张凤毛.公路建设项目的模糊综合评价[J].公路. 1998。
[52]陈丽.对我国政府还贷公路财务风险预警模型构建的思考[J].交通财会. 2008。
[53]四川《交通基础设施建设债务风险研究》课题组.交通基础设施建设债务风险研究[J].交通财会. 2008
[2] Carl L.Pritchard.Risk Management Concept andGuidance[M].Arlington Virginia:ESI international,1997,(7):124-159;
[3]卢有杰.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998,35-50;
[4]宋冬梅.基于模糊理论的BOT项目风险评价[J].建筑管理现代化. 2005.4;
[5]於永和.BOT项目投标决策模型及其应用研究[D].湖南大学.2006;
[6]贾元华.我国高速公路建设发展的绩效与评价[J].北京交通大学学报. 2005.6;
[7]刘焰.我国高速公路股份公司风险管理模式研究[J].武汉理工大学学报.2005.3;
[8]张正华.我国高速收费公路项目融资的风险及其防范[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版).2005.4;
[9]李洪刚.公路工程项目投资风险评价与控制研究[D].天津大学.2001;
[10]安雅琴.项目投资风险分析的研究[D].上海第二医科大学.2001;
[11]余晓珊.公路建设项目投资前期管理研究[D].华南理工大学,2001;
[12] Raftery,J.Risk analysis in project management,London:F&FN Spon,1994;
[13]同济大学.建设部标准研究所.政府投资项目经济评价方法与参数研究[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2004;
[14]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2002;
[15]卢有杰等.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998;
[16]连郡.管理工程学(上册)[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社.1998;
[17]刘尹生.建设项目管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2004;
[18]邱宛华.现代项目管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2002;
[19]王雷等.浅谈工程项目风险管理[M].北京:水利电力机械.2005;
[20]项贻明.高速公路规划与管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社.1999;
[21]周荣峰.中国收费公路发展政策研究[D].长安大学.2002;
[22]周新垣.四川高速公路管理研究[D].四川大学.2002;
[23]孟黔灵.高速公路建设项目财务评价研究[D].武汉理工大学.2002;
[24]马锋.工程项目风险管理理论与实践[D].西南交通大学.2003;
[25]刘丽.工程项目风险分析与风险管理[D].大连理工大学.2003;
[26]张北平.湖北省收费公路投资风险及对策研究[D].武汉理工大学.2004;
[27]程艳.西部公路基础设施建设问题与对策研究[D].长安大学.2006;
[28]王哗.高速公路项目投资风险管理[D].北京邮电大学.2007;
[29]吴瑞.高速公路项目投资风险预警系统研究[D].同济大学.2008;
[30]王哗.高速公路项目投资风险管理[D].北京邮电大学.2007;
[31]陈岩.公路工程项目风险管理研究[D].东北大学.2006;
[32]李颜娟.收费公路发展战略研究[D].长安大学.2006;
[33]收费公路[N].中国交通报.2003.11.04;
[34]李世蓉.建设项目风险管理的基本过程与特点[J].四川建筑. 2003;
[35]马锋等.风险管理理论在工程建设决策中的应用[J].四川建筑.2004;
[36]赵延军.建设项目风险管理理论的应用[J].武汉城市建设学院学报.2004;
[37] Bennt P.Lientz,Kathryn P.Rea.Project Management For the 21#Century[J].Third Edition. California: Academic Press,2002;
[38] Melvin W.Lifson,Edward F.Shaifer,JR.Decision and Construction Management[J]. AWiley- Interscience Pulication JOHN Risk Analysis for WILEY&SONS, 1992;
[39] Tummala. V. M. Rao, Burchett. John F. Applying a risk management process (RMP) to manage cost risk for an EHV transmission line project[J].International Journal ofProject Management. 1999;
[40] Miller. R,Lessard.D.Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management.2001;
[41] Ward.Stephen,Chapman.Chris.Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management[J]. International Journal of Project Management. 2003;
[42] Patterson.Fiona D,Neailey.Kevin.A risk register database system to aid themanagement of project risk[J].International Journal of Project Management. 2002;
[43] Shen.L.Y.Project risk management in Hong Kong[J].International Journal of Project Management.l997;
[44]刘冬梅.建筑工程项目施工中的风险管理[J].福建建筑.2003;
[45]华雪峰.公路工程项目风险管理的初步探讨[J].黑龙江交通科技.2005;
[46]侯立新.工程风险管理的因素及其防范对策[J].建筑施工.2003;
[47]孟庆钧.建筑工程风险的分析与防范[J].安装.2005;
[48]曹玉明.浅谈公路施工企业经营风险与风险防范[J].经济问题.2002;
[49]李晓宇等.工程项目风险评价体系研究[J].科技进步与对策.2005;
[50]张丽霞等.工程项目风险指标体系及综合评价研究[J].新疆农业大学学报. 2005;
[51]张凤毛.公路建设项目的模糊综合评价[J].公路. 1998。
[52]陈丽.对我国政府还贷公路财务风险预警模型构建的思考[J].交通财会. 2008。
[53]四川《交通基础设施建设债务风险研究》课题组.交通基础设施建设债务风险研究[J].交通财会. 2008