开放经济中增长不确定性理论、模型与经验研究
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摘要
随着人类社会迈入21世纪,现代经济的全球一体化趋势愈来愈明显,经济发
展所表现出来的区域不均衡现象变得更加突出,即使是初始条件相当的经济也表
现出迥然不同的增长历程,例如南韩和菲律宾;许多研究也表明我国地区经济增
长的差距正在加剧。如何解释开放经济中全球经济发展的区域不均衡,如何解释
不同国家、地区之间经济发展水平的差异,是宏观经济学研究面临的主要问题之
一。增长不确定性理论认为,经济系统的内生复杂性决定经济增长的稳态不是唯
一确定的,不同的国家或地区在发展过 中可以趋向不同的稳态,经济增长存在
多重平衡增长路径,也就是说经济增长存在全局不确定性;或者经济只有唯一稳
态,但它不是“鞍点”均衡,而可能是局部稳定的,这样在稳态邻域内存在收敛
于稳态的增长路径的连续统,而不只存在一条“黄金小道”,初始条件相当的经济
可能选择不同的增长路径,从而表现出经济发展水平的差异,这时经济增长存在
局部不确定性。
本文首先具体阐述了经济增长不确定性的含义,指出增长不确定性实际上是
对现代增长理论的补充和完善,增强其解释现实经济的能力:并首次从外部性与
规模报酬、偏好结构、政府政策、开放经济四个角度对经济增长不确定性理论研
究进行系统的梳理和评述,指出这些研究可能存在的问题和不足。在理论研究方
面,为与开放经济的研究提供一个对比,本文首先分析了封闭经济中增长不确定
性,证明了在包含交易品和非交易品的两部门模型中,如果效用函数在消费和休
闲之间不可分时,对于合理的外部性,经济会产生增长不确定性,并且不再依赖
于较高的劳动供给弹性和消费跨期替代弹性。其次考虑了国际资本流动对增长不
确定性的影响。建立一个包含物质资本和人力资本的内生增长模型,采用开放经
济的标准假定,证明了如果相对于新人力资本部门而言,最终产品的社会生产是
物质资本密集型,而私人生产是人力资本密集型,则轻度的外部性足以产生局部
不确定性:同时分析了不确定性条件下的资源配置和价格动态,给出开放经济中
增长不确定性的经济学解释,数值模拟证实了理论结果。再次,本文首次在开放
经济的增长模型中引入国际商品流动,考虑了消费者的多元化偏好,提供了经济
增长不确定性存在的一个充分条件:它主要与源自非交易品部门投资的特定外部
性有关,而不依赖于交易品部门的外部性。最后本文把政府财政政策引入到开放
经济的、人力资本积累的内生增长模型中,证明在适当条件下,模型能够同时预
示经济的多重均衡和增长的局部不确定性:由于人力资本水平的差异,使得经济
增长存在多重均衡;并且对应高经济增长率的均衡是局部稳定的,存在均衡路径
With the forthcoming of 21st century, global economic integration is becoming more and more implicit. However, the imbalance arising in the process of economic development has also been on a generally rising trend. Two economies with similarly initial endowments may undergo drastically different growth processes, for example South Korea and the Philippines. Many researches have also shown that the regional disparity in our country is rising. How to explain the regional imbalance of global economic development in the open economy and the dispersion of the output among different countries and regions becomes one of the main questions confronted by the macroeconomic study. In terms of the theory about the economic indeterminacy, the steady states are not the only one due to the endogenous complexity in the economic system. Different countries and regions maybe converge to various steady states in the process of growth and thus there are existing multiple balance growth paths, which is the global indeterminacy. Though there is only one steady state, it is not a "saddlepoint" equilibrium but is locally stable. Therefore there exists a continuum of growth paths that converge to the same steady state rather than the only one "gold lane". Different economies with similar fundamentals can choose divergent paths and differ so obviously in their short-run output level, i.e. the economic growth exhibits local indeterminacy.This dissertation first discusses in detail the concept of indeterminacy. It points out that the growth indeterminacy is the supplement and augmentation to the modern growth theory and strengthens its ability to explain actual economy. In this paper, I review the theoretical results about indeterminacy of economic growth from 1990s based on four standpoints such as externalities and returns-to-scale, preference structure, government policy, open economy. In the meantime problems and shortcomings existing in the previous researches are also provided.On the theory study this paper mainly aims at investigating the indeterminacy in the open economy. Of course in order to provide a comparison, the indeterminacy of the closed economy is analyzed beforehand. This dissertation shows that in a two-sector model with tradable goods and non-tradable goods, if the utility function is not additively separable between consumption and leisure, the growth indeterminacy can emerge for mild returns-to-scale and substitute elasticity of consumption different
from one. This property no more depends on the higher labor elasticity.Then a two-sector endogenous growth model with physical capital and human capital is proposed to explore the effect of international capital mobility on indeterminacy. Adopting the standard assumption for the small open economy this paper demonstrates that in the contrast to new human capital sector, if the final goods sector is physical capital intensive from the social perspective and human capital intensive from the private perspective, then local indeterminacy of economic growth will come into existence. Furthermore the dissertation investigates the resource allocation and price dynamics, and presents economic implication of the indeterminacy. Numerical simulations illustrate theoretical findings.In this paper international goods mobility is also introduced into an open economy Ramsey growth model examined by Weder(2001). It is supposed that agents not only consume domestic products, but also import foreign goods for consumption due to preference diversification. A sufficient condition is presented for the economy to exhibit indeterminacy. If there exists the mild sector-specific externality in the non-tradable goods sector and moreover the overall level of externalities in this sector is more than that of traded sector, then the economy may exhibit local indeterminacy. In comparison with Weder(2001), the dissertation illustrates that goods trade can greatly enhance the range in which indeterminacy results.Finally this paper formulates a two-sector endogenous growth model with fiscal policies in a small open economy, where the agent can freely allocate his labor time to produce final goods or accumulate human capital in the education sector. Government may collect taxes and allocate the constant rate of governmental revenues to subsidize the accumulation of human capital at every instant. Such a model can foresight the multi-equilibria (global indeterminacy) as well as local indeterminacy of economic growth. For a higher level of technology producing human capital, the economy could exhibit multiple steady states, one of which is unstable and the other relative to higher growth rate is locally stable state with a continuum of equilibrium paths.Based theoretical results derived above inspirations of growth indeterminacy to empirical study are overviewed. Further econometric analysis applying the series data from 1978 to 2002 in China illustrates that in the process of China's economic development there exists critical region of human capital to produce completely different relations between the development of human capital and economic growth around this level.Adopting the cross-section data of all provinces in our country this paper
examines the disparity of region economies. The empirical results indicate that the cross-regional per capita incomes for the whole sample including all provinces show little evidence of convergence, however in two sub-samples classified by initial human capital level follow the characterizes of convergence in the long-run. But we can see the fluctuation of per capita outputs in each sub-sample in the short-term and thus two regions with similarly initial endowments differ so drastically in their recent growth experience.Although the evidences are somewhat more tentative and many other explanations are possible, the hypothesis of indeterminacy cannot be excluded on the basis of the available evidences. The growth indeterminacy can offer a better explanation for the disparity of regional economy. Finally this dissertation proposes the relative suggestions on the economic open-up, the development of human capital and education investment in the middle and west area of ChinaBased on the regime of opened economy this dissertation explores the feasibility and evidences of growth indeterminacy from two perspectives of the theoretical and empirical studies. The findings will provide a brand-new perspective for understanding the dynamics of opened macro-economy and explaining the divergence of various countries' economic development, and possesses the theoretical value and policy inspiration in a certain degree.
展所表现出来的区域不均衡现象变得更加突出,即使是初始条件相当的经济也表
现出迥然不同的增长历程,例如南韩和菲律宾;许多研究也表明我国地区经济增
长的差距正在加剧。如何解释开放经济中全球经济发展的区域不均衡,如何解释
不同国家、地区之间经济发展水平的差异,是宏观经济学研究面临的主要问题之
一。增长不确定性理论认为,经济系统的内生复杂性决定经济增长的稳态不是唯
一确定的,不同的国家或地区在发展过 中可以趋向不同的稳态,经济增长存在
多重平衡增长路径,也就是说经济增长存在全局不确定性;或者经济只有唯一稳
态,但它不是“鞍点”均衡,而可能是局部稳定的,这样在稳态邻域内存在收敛
于稳态的增长路径的连续统,而不只存在一条“黄金小道”,初始条件相当的经济
可能选择不同的增长路径,从而表现出经济发展水平的差异,这时经济增长存在
局部不确定性。
本文首先具体阐述了经济增长不确定性的含义,指出增长不确定性实际上是
对现代增长理论的补充和完善,增强其解释现实经济的能力:并首次从外部性与
规模报酬、偏好结构、政府政策、开放经济四个角度对经济增长不确定性理论研
究进行系统的梳理和评述,指出这些研究可能存在的问题和不足。在理论研究方
面,为与开放经济的研究提供一个对比,本文首先分析了封闭经济中增长不确定
性,证明了在包含交易品和非交易品的两部门模型中,如果效用函数在消费和休
闲之间不可分时,对于合理的外部性,经济会产生增长不确定性,并且不再依赖
于较高的劳动供给弹性和消费跨期替代弹性。其次考虑了国际资本流动对增长不
确定性的影响。建立一个包含物质资本和人力资本的内生增长模型,采用开放经
济的标准假定,证明了如果相对于新人力资本部门而言,最终产品的社会生产是
物质资本密集型,而私人生产是人力资本密集型,则轻度的外部性足以产生局部
不确定性:同时分析了不确定性条件下的资源配置和价格动态,给出开放经济中
增长不确定性的经济学解释,数值模拟证实了理论结果。再次,本文首次在开放
经济的增长模型中引入国际商品流动,考虑了消费者的多元化偏好,提供了经济
增长不确定性存在的一个充分条件:它主要与源自非交易品部门投资的特定外部
性有关,而不依赖于交易品部门的外部性。最后本文把政府财政政策引入到开放
经济的、人力资本积累的内生增长模型中,证明在适当条件下,模型能够同时预
示经济的多重均衡和增长的局部不确定性:由于人力资本水平的差异,使得经济
增长存在多重均衡;并且对应高经济增长率的均衡是局部稳定的,存在均衡路径
With the forthcoming of 21st century, global economic integration is becoming more and more implicit. However, the imbalance arising in the process of economic development has also been on a generally rising trend. Two economies with similarly initial endowments may undergo drastically different growth processes, for example South Korea and the Philippines. Many researches have also shown that the regional disparity in our country is rising. How to explain the regional imbalance of global economic development in the open economy and the dispersion of the output among different countries and regions becomes one of the main questions confronted by the macroeconomic study. In terms of the theory about the economic indeterminacy, the steady states are not the only one due to the endogenous complexity in the economic system. Different countries and regions maybe converge to various steady states in the process of growth and thus there are existing multiple balance growth paths, which is the global indeterminacy. Though there is only one steady state, it is not a "saddlepoint" equilibrium but is locally stable. Therefore there exists a continuum of growth paths that converge to the same steady state rather than the only one "gold lane". Different economies with similar fundamentals can choose divergent paths and differ so obviously in their short-run output level, i.e. the economic growth exhibits local indeterminacy.This dissertation first discusses in detail the concept of indeterminacy. It points out that the growth indeterminacy is the supplement and augmentation to the modern growth theory and strengthens its ability to explain actual economy. In this paper, I review the theoretical results about indeterminacy of economic growth from 1990s based on four standpoints such as externalities and returns-to-scale, preference structure, government policy, open economy. In the meantime problems and shortcomings existing in the previous researches are also provided.On the theory study this paper mainly aims at investigating the indeterminacy in the open economy. Of course in order to provide a comparison, the indeterminacy of the closed economy is analyzed beforehand. This dissertation shows that in a two-sector model with tradable goods and non-tradable goods, if the utility function is not additively separable between consumption and leisure, the growth indeterminacy can emerge for mild returns-to-scale and substitute elasticity of consumption different
from one. This property no more depends on the higher labor elasticity.Then a two-sector endogenous growth model with physical capital and human capital is proposed to explore the effect of international capital mobility on indeterminacy. Adopting the standard assumption for the small open economy this paper demonstrates that in the contrast to new human capital sector, if the final goods sector is physical capital intensive from the social perspective and human capital intensive from the private perspective, then local indeterminacy of economic growth will come into existence. Furthermore the dissertation investigates the resource allocation and price dynamics, and presents economic implication of the indeterminacy. Numerical simulations illustrate theoretical findings.In this paper international goods mobility is also introduced into an open economy Ramsey growth model examined by Weder(2001). It is supposed that agents not only consume domestic products, but also import foreign goods for consumption due to preference diversification. A sufficient condition is presented for the economy to exhibit indeterminacy. If there exists the mild sector-specific externality in the non-tradable goods sector and moreover the overall level of externalities in this sector is more than that of traded sector, then the economy may exhibit local indeterminacy. In comparison with Weder(2001), the dissertation illustrates that goods trade can greatly enhance the range in which indeterminacy results.Finally this paper formulates a two-sector endogenous growth model with fiscal policies in a small open economy, where the agent can freely allocate his labor time to produce final goods or accumulate human capital in the education sector. Government may collect taxes and allocate the constant rate of governmental revenues to subsidize the accumulation of human capital at every instant. Such a model can foresight the multi-equilibria (global indeterminacy) as well as local indeterminacy of economic growth. For a higher level of technology producing human capital, the economy could exhibit multiple steady states, one of which is unstable and the other relative to higher growth rate is locally stable state with a continuum of equilibrium paths.Based theoretical results derived above inspirations of growth indeterminacy to empirical study are overviewed. Further econometric analysis applying the series data from 1978 to 2002 in China illustrates that in the process of China's economic development there exists critical region of human capital to produce completely different relations between the development of human capital and economic growth around this level.Adopting the cross-section data of all provinces in our country this paper
examines the disparity of region economies. The empirical results indicate that the cross-regional per capita incomes for the whole sample including all provinces show little evidence of convergence, however in two sub-samples classified by initial human capital level follow the characterizes of convergence in the long-run. But we can see the fluctuation of per capita outputs in each sub-sample in the short-term and thus two regions with similarly initial endowments differ so drastically in their recent growth experience.Although the evidences are somewhat more tentative and many other explanations are possible, the hypothesis of indeterminacy cannot be excluded on the basis of the available evidences. The growth indeterminacy can offer a better explanation for the disparity of regional economy. Finally this dissertation proposes the relative suggestions on the economic open-up, the development of human capital and education investment in the middle and west area of ChinaBased on the regime of opened economy this dissertation explores the feasibility and evidences of growth indeterminacy from two perspectives of the theoretical and empirical studies. The findings will provide a brand-new perspective for understanding the dynamics of opened macro-economy and explaining the divergence of various countries' economic development, and possesses the theoretical value and policy inspiration in a certain degree.
引文
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