松花江流域西部地区水文特性及变化趋势分析
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摘要
本文在充分收集研究区各种相关资料的基础上,结合松花江流域西部地区的的实际情况,分析了松花江流域西部地区的降水、蒸发、径流、地下水等水文特性及其时空变化规律和趋势;在此基础上,对水循环过程进行分解并引入水循环绝对强度和相对强度等定量指标,同时进行流域水循环强度分析以及水循环与其影响因子的相关分析,进而揭示气候活动和人类活动在水循环中的作用和影响;通过对流域水资源可利用量的时空分析,水文特性及变化趋势分析以及对粮食生产安全阈值的分析,进一步总结了水循环与粮食生产安全的关系。本文旨在揭示近几十年来气候变化和人类活动影响下松花江流域西部地区重点区域水循环变化规律及存在的问题,为保障东北地区商品粮基地的稳产高产,促进区域社会经济的可持续发展提供有效的技术支撑,同时也为其它水资源短缺地区提供示范。
With the comprehensive development of the economic society, increasing population and the acceleration of urbanization, most of the basins of China are facing the problems of water resources shortage and water environment deterioration, and Songliao basin is of no exception. Especially, the western region of Songhua River basin is located in the semi-arid continental monsoon climate zone and is the important commodity grain base of Northeast China, but its annual precipitation is less than 500mm. Because of the quantity of water resources, and the distribution is not meet to the remand of the crop growth, the crop production is seriously affected and the local food security is restricted. In recent years, the rapid development and utilization of the region has caused the seriously eco-environmental problems, includes grassland degradation, wetlands shrinkage, desertification, salinization, etc. To relieve the drought and the water shortage in western region of Songhua River basin, the water resources should be used fully and rationally, and then these water cycle regulation key technologies, such as the artificial rainfall, the construction of underground reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, etc, should be used to strength the water resources regulation ability. And before this, the hydrological characteristics and water cycle change trend in the region should be analyzed, and the relationship between water resources and the food production safety should be ensured, and the influence of climate change and human activities on the regional water cycle should be evaluated scientifically, which could be the basis of the other work.
Taking the Taoer River basin as a typical region in the western region of Songhua River basin, the paper begins the correlation studies. Firstly, starting with the study on hydrological characteristics change trend of the Taoer River basin, the paper analyzes the long series basin hydrological and meteorological data by using the hydrological series change analysis method. The results show that the precipitation has an decreasing trend since 1993, the evaporation has an increasing trend since 1992, the runoff has an decreasing trend since 1998 and the groundwater level also has an decreasing trend year by year. Because of the influence of natural factors and human activities, the ecological environment has been damaged seriously, such as the gradually expanding of land desertification and salinizatio, grassland degradation and decreased vegetation coverage.
Secondly, the paper studies the influence of climate change and human activities on water cycle, and illustrates the interaction between climate, human activities and land-water from the aspects of the basic principle of the water cycle, the basin climate change and basin human activities. On this basis, the water cycle process is divided into the trunk cycle and artificial collateral cycle. Through the quantitative indicators of absolute strength and relative strength, the paper analyzes the basin water cycle strength and the correlation of water cycle and its influence factors. By using the multiple regression method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the influence of human activities and climate change on the water cycle.
Finally, the paper studies the relationship between the water resources and food production security, analyzes the space-time distribution of the basin available water resources and calculates the threshold of basin food production security based on the crop irrigation water demands, regional population, per capita ration standards and other relevant data. Based on the relationship between the crop production and current and prior year water resources, the simple linear regression equation is built and the influence of water resources quantity and distribution on the crop production is analyzed by using the series data scatter diagram. At the same time, the problems of the crop production are illustrated in the condition of hydrological characteristics changes in the future.
In summary, the paper analyzes the water cycle variation law and the existing related problems in the western region of Songhua River basin under the influence of the climate change and human activities. In the future, combined with the basin actual situation, the results would play an important role in the positive influence of human activities on water cycle. Through the construction of water resources allocation, the relations between man and nature could be coordinated, and the optimal allocation of water resources could be achieve. Therefore, the study will be the basis of study of key technology in the water cycle regulation, and it will ensure the high and stable crop yield in the commodity grain base of Northeast China and provide the effective technical support for the sustainable development of the regional social economy.
With the comprehensive development of the economic society, increasing population and the acceleration of urbanization, most of the basins of China are facing the problems of water resources shortage and water environment deterioration, and Songliao basin is of no exception. Especially, the western region of Songhua River basin is located in the semi-arid continental monsoon climate zone and is the important commodity grain base of Northeast China, but its annual precipitation is less than 500mm. Because of the quantity of water resources, and the distribution is not meet to the remand of the crop growth, the crop production is seriously affected and the local food security is restricted. In recent years, the rapid development and utilization of the region has caused the seriously eco-environmental problems, includes grassland degradation, wetlands shrinkage, desertification, salinization, etc. To relieve the drought and the water shortage in western region of Songhua River basin, the water resources should be used fully and rationally, and then these water cycle regulation key technologies, such as the artificial rainfall, the construction of underground reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, etc, should be used to strength the water resources regulation ability. And before this, the hydrological characteristics and water cycle change trend in the region should be analyzed, and the relationship between water resources and the food production safety should be ensured, and the influence of climate change and human activities on the regional water cycle should be evaluated scientifically, which could be the basis of the other work.
Taking the Taoer River basin as a typical region in the western region of Songhua River basin, the paper begins the correlation studies. Firstly, starting with the study on hydrological characteristics change trend of the Taoer River basin, the paper analyzes the long series basin hydrological and meteorological data by using the hydrological series change analysis method. The results show that the precipitation has an decreasing trend since 1993, the evaporation has an increasing trend since 1992, the runoff has an decreasing trend since 1998 and the groundwater level also has an decreasing trend year by year. Because of the influence of natural factors and human activities, the ecological environment has been damaged seriously, such as the gradually expanding of land desertification and salinizatio, grassland degradation and decreased vegetation coverage.
Secondly, the paper studies the influence of climate change and human activities on water cycle, and illustrates the interaction between climate, human activities and land-water from the aspects of the basic principle of the water cycle, the basin climate change and basin human activities. On this basis, the water cycle process is divided into the trunk cycle and artificial collateral cycle. Through the quantitative indicators of absolute strength and relative strength, the paper analyzes the basin water cycle strength and the correlation of water cycle and its influence factors. By using the multiple regression method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the influence of human activities and climate change on the water cycle.
Finally, the paper studies the relationship between the water resources and food production security, analyzes the space-time distribution of the basin available water resources and calculates the threshold of basin food production security based on the crop irrigation water demands, regional population, per capita ration standards and other relevant data. Based on the relationship between the crop production and current and prior year water resources, the simple linear regression equation is built and the influence of water resources quantity and distribution on the crop production is analyzed by using the series data scatter diagram. At the same time, the problems of the crop production are illustrated in the condition of hydrological characteristics changes in the future.
In summary, the paper analyzes the water cycle variation law and the existing related problems in the western region of Songhua River basin under the influence of the climate change and human activities. In the future, combined with the basin actual situation, the results would play an important role in the positive influence of human activities on water cycle. Through the construction of water resources allocation, the relations between man and nature could be coordinated, and the optimal allocation of water resources could be achieve. Therefore, the study will be the basis of study of key technology in the water cycle regulation, and it will ensure the high and stable crop yield in the commodity grain base of Northeast China and provide the effective technical support for the sustainable development of the regional social economy.
引文
[1]任国玉,姜彤,李维京,翟盘茂等.气候变化对中国水资源情势影响综合分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(6):772-779.
[2]刘春蓁.气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(1):115-119.
[3]李文生,许士国.流域水循环的人工影响因素及其作用[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4):28-32.
[4]夏军,孙雪涛,谈戈.中国西部流域水循环研究进展与展望[J].地球科学进展,2008,18(1):58-67.
[5]松花江和辽河流域水资源综合评价.2009.
[6]松辽流域水资源调查评价.2006.
[7]邓慧平,吴正方,唐来华.气候变化对水文和水资源影响研究综述[J].地理学报,1996,51(12):161-169.
[8]SchwarzHE.Climaticchangeandwatersupply:howsensitiveistheNortheast?In:ReveileRR,WaggonerPE(eds).ClimaticchangeandwaterSupply.WashingtonDC:NationalAcademyofsciences.1977.
[9]Stockton.Geohydrologicalimplicationsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesdevelopment.USACEInstituteforwaterresources.1979.
[10]Nash.SensitivityofstreamflowintheColoradoBasintoClimateChange.J.Hydrology,1990,125(1):221-241
[11]Gleick.Methodsforevaluatingtheregionalhydrologicimpactsofglobalclimaticchanges.J.Hydro,1986,88(1):97-116.
[12]Mccabe.EffeetsofclimatechangeontheThornthwaiteMoistureIndex.WaterResourcesBu11,1990,26(4).
[13]施雅风等.气候变化对西北、华北水资源影响的研究.1992.
[14]刘昌明,刘小莽,郑红星.气候变化对水文水资源影响问题的探讨[J].科学对社会的影响,2008,02:21-27.
[15]付国斌.全球变暖对华北水资源的影响的初步分析[J].地理学与国土研究,1991,7(4):22-26.
[16]符淙斌.全球变暖对我国北方水资源的可能影响.见:华北地区水资源合理开发利用.北京:水利电力出版社.1990
[17]NemecJ.Sensitivityofwaterresourcesystemstoclimatevariation.HydrologicalSci.,1982,27(2):327-343.
[18]Lettenmaier.ClimaticsensitivityofCaliforniawaterresources.WaterResourcesPlanningandmanagement,1991,11,(l):108-125.
[19]PetersonD,KellerA.Irrigation.In:waggoner(eds).ClimatechangeandU.S.WaterResources.NewYork:wileyJ,1990.269~306.
[20]Smith.ThePotentialimpactsofclimatechangeontheGreatLakes.Bull.Am.Meteorol.Soc.,1991,72(1):21-28.
[21]许炯心.人类活动对黄河河川径流的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,18(5):648-655.
[22]黄玉霞,王宝鉴,张强,王劲松等.气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域水资源影响评价[J].高原气象,2008,27(4):866-872.
[23]芮孝芳.论人类活动对水资源的影响.河海科技进展,1991,03.
[24]袁东良,吉俊峰,赵淑饶.黄河枯水期河道径流损耗估算及误差来源分析[J].水文,2004,24(5):24-27.
[25]蒋昕辉.黄河三门峡站天然年径流量系列周期性分析及枯水段研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[26]王国庆.气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[27]黄永,郭仁华,宋尚波.人类活动对河道径流影响评价[J].山东水利,2004,(12):33-34.
[28]内蒙古自治区水土保持监测公报.2008.
[29]庞英.论水资源短缺与粮食安全[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2001,(1):11-14.
[30]夏铭君,姜文来.基于流域粮食安全的农业水资源安全阈值研究[J].农业现代化研究,2007,28(2):210-213.
[31]兴安盟国民经济和社会发展统计公报.1983～2009.
[32]王学渊.基于前沿面理论的农业水资源生产配置效率研究[D].浙江大学,2008.
[33]夏铭君.我国粮食生产水资源安全研究——以海河流域为例[D].中国农业科学院,2007.
[34]中国粮食供求状况分析.2005.
[35]鞠正山,张凤荣,刘晓霞.西北特干旱区农业水资源利用潜力与粮食增产的关系[J].农业工程学报,2002,18(1):177-180.
[36]中国的灌溉用水与粮食安全.2006.
[37]梁平德,刘爱霞.地表水资源与天津粮食产量的宏观分析[J].气象,1995,21(6):44-47.
[2]刘春蓁.气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(1):115-119.
[3]李文生,许士国.流域水循环的人工影响因素及其作用[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4):28-32.
[4]夏军,孙雪涛,谈戈.中国西部流域水循环研究进展与展望[J].地球科学进展,2008,18(1):58-67.
[5]松花江和辽河流域水资源综合评价.2009.
[6]松辽流域水资源调查评价.2006.
[7]邓慧平,吴正方,唐来华.气候变化对水文和水资源影响研究综述[J].地理学报,1996,51(12):161-169.
[8]SchwarzHE.Climaticchangeandwatersupply:howsensitiveistheNortheast?In:ReveileRR,WaggonerPE(eds).ClimaticchangeandwaterSupply.WashingtonDC:NationalAcademyofsciences.1977.
[9]Stockton.Geohydrologicalimplicationsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesdevelopment.USACEInstituteforwaterresources.1979.
[10]Nash.SensitivityofstreamflowintheColoradoBasintoClimateChange.J.Hydrology,1990,125(1):221-241
[11]Gleick.Methodsforevaluatingtheregionalhydrologicimpactsofglobalclimaticchanges.J.Hydro,1986,88(1):97-116.
[12]Mccabe.EffeetsofclimatechangeontheThornthwaiteMoistureIndex.WaterResourcesBu11,1990,26(4).
[13]施雅风等.气候变化对西北、华北水资源影响的研究.1992.
[14]刘昌明,刘小莽,郑红星.气候变化对水文水资源影响问题的探讨[J].科学对社会的影响,2008,02:21-27.
[15]付国斌.全球变暖对华北水资源的影响的初步分析[J].地理学与国土研究,1991,7(4):22-26.
[16]符淙斌.全球变暖对我国北方水资源的可能影响.见:华北地区水资源合理开发利用.北京:水利电力出版社.1990
[17]NemecJ.Sensitivityofwaterresourcesystemstoclimatevariation.HydrologicalSci.,1982,27(2):327-343.
[18]Lettenmaier.ClimaticsensitivityofCaliforniawaterresources.WaterResourcesPlanningandmanagement,1991,11,(l):108-125.
[19]PetersonD,KellerA.Irrigation.In:waggoner(eds).ClimatechangeandU.S.WaterResources.NewYork:wileyJ,1990.269~306.
[20]Smith.ThePotentialimpactsofclimatechangeontheGreatLakes.Bull.Am.Meteorol.Soc.,1991,72(1):21-28.
[21]许炯心.人类活动对黄河河川径流的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,18(5):648-655.
[22]黄玉霞,王宝鉴,张强,王劲松等.气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域水资源影响评价[J].高原气象,2008,27(4):866-872.
[23]芮孝芳.论人类活动对水资源的影响.河海科技进展,1991,03.
[24]袁东良,吉俊峰,赵淑饶.黄河枯水期河道径流损耗估算及误差来源分析[J].水文,2004,24(5):24-27.
[25]蒋昕辉.黄河三门峡站天然年径流量系列周期性分析及枯水段研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[26]王国庆.气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[27]黄永,郭仁华,宋尚波.人类活动对河道径流影响评价[J].山东水利,2004,(12):33-34.
[28]内蒙古自治区水土保持监测公报.2008.
[29]庞英.论水资源短缺与粮食安全[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2001,(1):11-14.
[30]夏铭君,姜文来.基于流域粮食安全的农业水资源安全阈值研究[J].农业现代化研究,2007,28(2):210-213.
[31]兴安盟国民经济和社会发展统计公报.1983～2009.
[32]王学渊.基于前沿面理论的农业水资源生产配置效率研究[D].浙江大学,2008.
[33]夏铭君.我国粮食生产水资源安全研究——以海河流域为例[D].中国农业科学院,2007.
[34]中国粮食供求状况分析.2005.
[35]鞠正山,张凤荣,刘晓霞.西北特干旱区农业水资源利用潜力与粮食增产的关系[J].农业工程学报,2002,18(1):177-180.
[36]中国的灌溉用水与粮食安全.2006.
[37]梁平德,刘爱霞.地表水资源与天津粮食产量的宏观分析[J].气象,1995,21(6):44-47.