中国对非洲投资和贸易对其经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
本文实证研究了中国对非洲直接投资和中国与非洲双边贸易的关系，并且分析了前两者对非洲经济增长的影响。我们使用了来自于被选定作为样本非洲东道国的数据集，并采用了STATA软件对数据进行静态和动态面板数据分析。我们先评估了中国对非洲直接投资（FDI）流量和中国对非洲的进、出口之间的关系，然后我们又研究了前三者同时对东道国的GDP增长，实际人均GDP增长以及对东道国就业的共同作用。为此，本文的结构围绕着四个主轴。首先，在研究中国对非洲直接投资的影响因素时把中国对非洲的出口、中国从非洲的进口，中国承包商在非洲的营业额，中-非合作论坛平台和东道国的自然资源禀赋作为重点考虑和观察的因素。实证结果显示所有这些解释变量都对中国对非洲直接投资流量有着显著的积极影响，除中国对非洲的出口额以外。其次，我们研究了中国对非洲出口贸易的决定因素。在此过程中我们重点考虑了中国对非洲直接投资年度流量，中国在东道国签约项目的年度总金额，中国在与东道国进行劳动合作的年度收益总额，中国制造业年度增值比率以及在中国给以私营部门的年度贷款便捷等因素。得出来的结果是中国对非洲直接投资流量积极影响了中国对非洲的出口贸易。与此同时除了在中国给以私营部门的年度贷款便捷这个变量以外，其他上述的因素都对中国向非洲的出口都有着显著的正面影响。此外，在已包括其它控制变量的情况下，我们估计了中国对非洲直接投资流量和非洲东道国的自然资源禀赋对中国从非洲进口的作用。我们发现，中国对非洲直接投资和东道国的自然资源禀赋一直在积极共同的影响着中国从非洲的进口。中国对非洲的直接投资与中-非贸易存在互补性关系，这些对非洲直接投资大多有垂直、上游寻求资源或下游服务出口的性质。第三，我们研究了中国对非洲直接投资流量、中国对非洲的出口和中国从非洲的进口等三个要素对非洲东道国经济增长的影响，通过前三者其对GDP增长和实际人均GDP的增长。实证分析结果表明自2003年以来非洲国家明显上升的GDP增长率有一部分是受了与中国经济往来的良好影响。此外，结合中国对非洲直接投资，中国从非洲的进口总额对非洲东道国的实际人均GDP也有积极的影响。然而中国对非洲的出口反而对非洲东道国实际人均GDP增长有着负面因素。最后，我们发现中国对非洲直接投资和中国从东道国的进口同时对东道国当地就业有积极影响的作用。相反，非洲东道国自然资源禀赋对当地就业有阻碍作用，同时中国对非洲的出口对非洲国家就业没有显著的影响。
This thesis empirically examines the linkages between China’s FDI inflows in Africa and China-Africa bilateral trade; as well as the joint impacts of the above factors on economic growth andemployment in Africa. Using datasets from a selection of African countries over1990-2012, weemployed both the static and the dynamic panel techniques in STATA first to evaluate the nexusbetween China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Africa and China’s exports andimports trade with Africa. Next, we examined their joint effects as determinants of hostcountries’ GDP growth, real per capita GDP growth as well as on host countries’ employment.To do this, we structured the study around four major axes. First, we engaged in a prior empiricalreview of determinants of China’s FDI inflows in Africa, focussing on the effects of China’sexports to and imports from Africa, turnover of China’s economic cooperation with Africa, theFOCAC platform and host countries’ endowments in natural resources. All those variables showa significantly positive effect on China’s FDI inflows in Africa, except for China’s exports toAfrica. Secondly, we examined the determinants of China’s exports to Africa laying an emphasison China’s FDI inflows, total amount of China’s contracted projects in host countries, totalamount of China’s labour cooperation with host countries, growth of value added in themanufacturing sector in China as well as credit facilities available for private sector in China. Wefound that China’s FDI flows into Africa have a positive effect on China’s exports to Africa,jointly with positive effects from other factors cited above; except for credit facilities to privatesector in China. Moreover, among other control variables, we estimated the roles of China’s FDIinflows in Africa and host countries natural resources endowments as determinants of China’simports from Africa. We found that China’s FDI inflows in Africa and host countries’ naturalresources endowments have been active drivers for China’s imports from Africa. There is strongevidence of complementarities between China’s FDI and trade with Africa, these vertical FDImostly have an upstream resource-seeking or downstream export-servicing orientation. Thirdly,we examined the roles of China’s FDI inflows in Africa, together with China’s exports to Africaand China’s imports from Africa on economic growth in host countries through their jointimpacts on GDP growth and real per capita GDP growth. We found that part of observedincrease in African countries GDP growth since2003is due to China’s occurrence as a player onthe African economic stage. Besides, combined with China’s FDI inflows in Africa, China’simports from Africa have been positively affecting real per capita GDP in Africa, while China’sexports to Africa on the contrary proved to be a negative factor for real per capita GDP growth.Finally, we found strongly positive joint effects of both China’s FDI and China’s imports fromAfrica on employment in host countries. On the contrary, natural resources endowments have ahindering effect on employment in Africa while exports from China have no impact onemployment in Africa.
This thesis empirically examines the linkages between China’s FDI inflows in Africa and China-Africa bilateral trade; as well as the joint impacts of the above factors on economic growth andemployment in Africa. Using datasets from a selection of African countries over1990-2012, weemployed both the static and the dynamic panel techniques in STATA first to evaluate the nexusbetween China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Africa and China’s exports andimports trade with Africa. Next, we examined their joint effects as determinants of hostcountries’ GDP growth, real per capita GDP growth as well as on host countries’ employment.To do this, we structured the study around four major axes. First, we engaged in a prior empiricalreview of determinants of China’s FDI inflows in Africa, focussing on the effects of China’sexports to and imports from Africa, turnover of China’s economic cooperation with Africa, theFOCAC platform and host countries’ endowments in natural resources. All those variables showa significantly positive effect on China’s FDI inflows in Africa, except for China’s exports toAfrica. Secondly, we examined the determinants of China’s exports to Africa laying an emphasison China’s FDI inflows, total amount of China’s contracted projects in host countries, totalamount of China’s labour cooperation with host countries, growth of value added in themanufacturing sector in China as well as credit facilities available for private sector in China. Wefound that China’s FDI flows into Africa have a positive effect on China’s exports to Africa,jointly with positive effects from other factors cited above; except for credit facilities to privatesector in China. Moreover, among other control variables, we estimated the roles of China’s FDIinflows in Africa and host countries natural resources endowments as determinants of China’simports from Africa. We found that China’s FDI inflows in Africa and host countries’ naturalresources endowments have been active drivers for China’s imports from Africa. There is strongevidence of complementarities between China’s FDI and trade with Africa, these vertical FDImostly have an upstream resource-seeking or downstream export-servicing orientation. Thirdly,we examined the roles of China’s FDI inflows in Africa, together with China’s exports to Africaand China’s imports from Africa on economic growth in host countries through their jointimpacts on GDP growth and real per capita GDP growth. We found that part of observedincrease in African countries GDP growth since2003is due to China’s occurrence as a player onthe African economic stage. Besides, combined with China’s FDI inflows in Africa, China’simports from Africa have been positively affecting real per capita GDP in Africa, while China’sexports to Africa on the contrary proved to be a negative factor for real per capita GDP growth.Finally, we found strongly positive joint effects of both China’s FDI and China’s imports fromAfrica on employment in host countries. On the contrary, natural resources endowments have ahindering effect on employment in Africa while exports from China have no impact onemployment in Africa.
引文
1UNCTAD defines FDI as an investment involving a long-term relationship and reflecting a lasting interest and control by a firmin an enterprise resident in a foreign country (UNCTAD,2005). FDI normally has three components:(i) equity capital (thepurchase of shares in the foreign enterprise);(ii) reinvested earnings (those earnings not distributed as dividends by foreignaffiliates or remitted to the investor enterprise) and (iii) intra-company loans or debt transactions (borrowing and lending betweenparent and foreign affiliate enterprises)(UNCTAD,2005).International Monetary Fund (International Financial Statistics and Balance of Payments databases) defines Foreign directinvestment as the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10percent or more of voting stock) in anenterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, otherlong-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of payments.
2In this study, the term China refers to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), for data collection and convenience issues. Thus,no consideration is made of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau special autonomous regions.
3World Investment Report2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development; primary Source: UNCTAD FDI‐TNC‐GVCInformation System, FDI database (www.unctad.org/fdistatistics).
4China’s Statistical Yearbook2013. National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoples’ Republic of China.(http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2013/indexeh.htm)
5See: People Daily, January15,1983; Or Beijing Review,24January1983:1. The11African countries are Algeria, CongoBrazzaville, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Kenya, Morocco, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia and Zimbabwe. See People Daily, January15,1983;Or Beijing Review,24January1983:1
6Gu, Jing (2009),“China’s Private Enterprises in Africa and the Implications for African Development,” European Journal ofDevelopment Research,21(4), pp.570‐587.
7Will sometimes be referred to in short as COFDI or as China’s OFDI
8Annual data on China's outward Direct Investments to Europe for years2003‐2005and2009present some irregularitiesacross the English and the Chinese versions and different publications of the Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward DirectInvestments and have been slightly adjusted by the author
9annual data on China's outward Direct Investments to Europe for years2003‐2005and2009present some irregularitiesacross the English and the Chinese versions and different publications of the Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward DirectInvestments and have been slightly adjusted by the author
10Lim,D.(1983)“fiscal incentives and direct investment in less developed countries”. Journal of Development Studies19(2):207‐212.
11Brazil, Russia Federation, India and China
12‐Brainard, S. Lael (1997)“An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity‐Concentration Trade‐Off between Multinational Salesand Trade”. The American Economic Review87(4),520–544;‐Helpman, Elhanan, Marc J. Melitz, and Stephen R. Yeaple (2004)“Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms”. AmericanEconomic Review94(1),300–316;‐Horstmann, Ignatius J., and James R. Markusen (1992)“Endogenous Market Structures in International Trade”(natura facitsaltum).’ Journal of International Economics32(1‐2),109–129;‐Markusen, James R., and Anthony Venables (2000)“The Theory of Endowment, Intra‐Industry and Multi‐national Trade”.Journal of International Economics52(2),209–234;‐Ramondo, Natalia, Veronica Rappoport, and Kim J. Ruhl (2013)“The Proximity‐Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty”.Unpublished Manuscript
13Sub‐Saharan Africa
14De Mello (1997)
15Calvo, et al (1996)
16Yan, Zhou (May28,2010)."CAD Fund to boost footprint in Africa". China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010‐05/28/content_9903203.htm.
17Barney Jopson, Jamil Anderlini (Nov.9,2009)."China pledges$10billion in low‐cost loans to Africa". The Washington Post.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp‐dyn/content/article/2009/11/08/AR2009110818002.html.
18The author has been working as an intern in a Chinese state‐owned infrastructure construction company since2009.
19Transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector assess the extent to which the executive can be heldaccountable for its use of funds and for the results of its actions by the electorate and by the legislature and judiciary, and theextent to which public employees within the executive are required to account for administrative decisions, use of resources,and results obtained. The three main dimensions assessed here are the accountability of the executive to oversight institutionsand of public employees for their performance, access of civil society to information on public affairs, and state capture bynarrow vested interests. See http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ/countries?display=default.
20See section2.2.1(b) in chapter2above.
21The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
22The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
23The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
24The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
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2In this study, the term China refers to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), for data collection and convenience issues. Thus,no consideration is made of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau special autonomous regions.
3World Investment Report2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development; primary Source: UNCTAD FDI‐TNC‐GVCInformation System, FDI database (www.unctad.org/fdistatistics).
4China’s Statistical Yearbook2013. National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoples’ Republic of China.(http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2013/indexeh.htm)
5See: People Daily, January15,1983; Or Beijing Review,24January1983:1. The11African countries are Algeria, CongoBrazzaville, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Kenya, Morocco, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia and Zimbabwe. See People Daily, January15,1983;Or Beijing Review,24January1983:1
6Gu, Jing (2009),“China’s Private Enterprises in Africa and the Implications for African Development,” European Journal ofDevelopment Research,21(4), pp.570‐587.
7Will sometimes be referred to in short as COFDI or as China’s OFDI
8Annual data on China's outward Direct Investments to Europe for years2003‐2005and2009present some irregularitiesacross the English and the Chinese versions and different publications of the Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward DirectInvestments and have been slightly adjusted by the author
9annual data on China's outward Direct Investments to Europe for years2003‐2005and2009present some irregularitiesacross the English and the Chinese versions and different publications of the Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward DirectInvestments and have been slightly adjusted by the author
10Lim,D.(1983)“fiscal incentives and direct investment in less developed countries”. Journal of Development Studies19(2):207‐212.
11Brazil, Russia Federation, India and China
12‐Brainard, S. Lael (1997)“An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity‐Concentration Trade‐Off between Multinational Salesand Trade”. The American Economic Review87(4),520–544;‐Helpman, Elhanan, Marc J. Melitz, and Stephen R. Yeaple (2004)“Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms”. AmericanEconomic Review94(1),300–316;‐Horstmann, Ignatius J., and James R. Markusen (1992)“Endogenous Market Structures in International Trade”(natura facitsaltum).’ Journal of International Economics32(1‐2),109–129;‐Markusen, James R., and Anthony Venables (2000)“The Theory of Endowment, Intra‐Industry and Multi‐national Trade”.Journal of International Economics52(2),209–234;‐Ramondo, Natalia, Veronica Rappoport, and Kim J. Ruhl (2013)“The Proximity‐Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty”.Unpublished Manuscript
13Sub‐Saharan Africa
14De Mello (1997)
15Calvo, et al (1996)
16Yan, Zhou (May28,2010)."CAD Fund to boost footprint in Africa". China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010‐05/28/content_9903203.htm.
17Barney Jopson, Jamil Anderlini (Nov.9,2009)."China pledges$10billion in low‐cost loans to Africa". The Washington Post.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp‐dyn/content/article/2009/11/08/AR2009110818002.html.
18The author has been working as an intern in a Chinese state‐owned infrastructure construction company since2009.
19Transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector assess the extent to which the executive can be heldaccountable for its use of funds and for the results of its actions by the electorate and by the legislature and judiciary, and theextent to which public employees within the executive are required to account for administrative decisions, use of resources,and results obtained. The three main dimensions assessed here are the accountability of the executive to oversight institutionsand of public employees for their performance, access of civil society to information on public affairs, and state capture bynarrow vested interests. See http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ/countries?display=default.
20See section2.2.1(b) in chapter2above.
21The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
22The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
23The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
24The lower the risk point total, the higher the risk of corruption, and the higher the risk point total the lower the risk. Seehttp://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx
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