2000—2010年中国农村人力资源格局的重构
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摘要
在城镇化快速发展和农村青壮年劳动力向城镇大规模转移的背景下,如何保证人口流出地的人口质量成为农村可持续发展和乡村振兴的关键。论文运用IPF等方法对2000年和2010年全国2294个县域空间单元的农村人口的教育年限进行了估算,并基于区域人力资源的定量测算,对2000—2010年之间全国农村人力资源的空间格局的相对变化态势进行了分析。研究发现:①2000—2010年中国农村人力资源总量减少了3.0%,人力资源总量的空间格局变化不大,地域差异主要体现为东西差异和省际差异,空间集聚态势显著但均衡性增加;②人均人力资源发生了很大变化,10 a间提升了17.4%,县域单元农村人力资源的相对减少主要发生在中部地区和东北地区,而西部地区、长三角、珠三角,以及地级市市辖区的农村人力资源则有所增加,人均人力资源下降的地区超过50%;③根据人力资源总量和人均人力资源的变化,县域单元存在同步增加、同步减少、质增量减、质减量增4种类型,2000—2010年间,平原县和丘陵县、粮食主产区、贫困县的人力资源变化需格外重视。平原和丘陵地区同步减少型县域单元的比例均超过40%;粮食主产区农村人力资源总量优势明显,但人均人力资源下降的比例高达64.6%;贫困县同步增加型地区的比例达到43.9%,但人力资源水平仍然与非贫困县有一定差距。这些研究结果表明,遏制平原县、丘陵县和粮食主产区人力资源质量下降,提升贫困县人力资源总体水平是当前农村人口可持续发展的当务之急。
Population structure has changed remarkably in rural China along with rapid urbanization and ruralurban migration. Maintaining population quality in source areas of migration is crucial for rural revitalization and sustainable development. By means of the iterative proportional fitting(IPF) algorithm, this study estimated the number of rural population and their years of education in 2000 and 2010 for 2294 counties of China. The spatial pattern and trend of change of rural human resources of the county units in 2000 and 2010 were analyzed based on the quantitative model of human resources. It is found that: 1) Gross human resources decreased by3.0% in rural areas in China from 2000-2010. Differences between eastern and western regions and variations at the provincial level were the most obvious spatial differences. Spatial agglomeration was significant and more evenly distributed. 2) Human resources per capita had increased by 17.4% in this decade. The outflow of rural human resources had mostly taken place in central China and Northeast provinces. Rural human resources increased in the western region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and prefecture-level cities; the proportion of areas with decreased per capita human resources exceeded 50%. 3) Based on the change of rural gross and per capita human resources, there are four types of county units, that is, the simultaneously increasing type, the simultaneously decreasing type, the increasing quality and decreasing quantity type, and the decreasing quality and increasing quantity type. Change of human resources in counties of hilly areas, plain areas, major grain production areas, and national-level poverty-stricken counties should be paid particular attention to. The proportion of simultaneously decreasing type in hilly counties and plain counties exceeded 40%. The advantage of gross rural human resources in major grain production areas was obvious but the proportion of counties with decreased per capita human resources reached 64.6%. The proportion of simultaneously increasing type in national-level poverty-stricken counties was 43.9%, but there remained a gap with other counties. Based on the results, the priority for sustainable development of rural areas is to prevent the decrease of human resources of hilly counties, plain counties, and major grain production areas, and to improve the gross human resource level in poverty-stricken counties.
Population structure has changed remarkably in rural China along with rapid urbanization and ruralurban migration. Maintaining population quality in source areas of migration is crucial for rural revitalization and sustainable development. By means of the iterative proportional fitting(IPF) algorithm, this study estimated the number of rural population and their years of education in 2000 and 2010 for 2294 counties of China. The spatial pattern and trend of change of rural human resources of the county units in 2000 and 2010 were analyzed based on the quantitative model of human resources. It is found that: 1) Gross human resources decreased by3.0% in rural areas in China from 2000-2010. Differences between eastern and western regions and variations at the provincial level were the most obvious spatial differences. Spatial agglomeration was significant and more evenly distributed. 2) Human resources per capita had increased by 17.4% in this decade. The outflow of rural human resources had mostly taken place in central China and Northeast provinces. Rural human resources increased in the western region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and prefecture-level cities; the proportion of areas with decreased per capita human resources exceeded 50%. 3) Based on the change of rural gross and per capita human resources, there are four types of county units, that is, the simultaneously increasing type, the simultaneously decreasing type, the increasing quality and decreasing quantity type, and the decreasing quality and increasing quantity type. Change of human resources in counties of hilly areas, plain areas, major grain production areas, and national-level poverty-stricken counties should be paid particular attention to. The proportion of simultaneously decreasing type in hilly counties and plain counties exceeded 40%. The advantage of gross rural human resources in major grain production areas was obvious but the proportion of counties with decreased per capita human resources reached 64.6%. The proportion of simultaneously increasing type in national-level poverty-stricken counties was 43.9%, but there remained a gap with other counties. Based on the results, the priority for sustainable development of rural areas is to prevent the decrease of human resources of hilly counties, plain counties, and major grain production areas, and to improve the gross human resource level in poverty-stricken counties.
引文
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黄乾,李修彪.2015.我国省域人力资本的收敛性分析:基于三种测算方法的比较[J].人口与经济,(4):94-106.[Huang Q,Li X B.A comparative analysis of convergence of provincial regions'per capita human capital in China:Based on three kinds of human capital estimation methods.Population and Economics,(4):94-106.]
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杨俊,李雪松.2007.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长:基于中国的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(2):37-45.[Yang J,Li X S.2007.Education inequality,human capital and economic growth:An empirical study on China.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,(2):37-45.]
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Birkin M.1986.Iterative Proportional Fitting(IPF):Theory,method,and example(Computer Manual 26)[R].Leeds,UK:School of Geography,University of Leeds.
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Cooke P.2002.Knowledge Economies[M].London,UK:Routledge.
Gottlieb P.2011.Supply or demand,make or buy:Two simple frameworks for thinking about a state-Level brain drain policy[J].Economic Development Quarterly,25(4):303-315.
Huang T L,Orazem P F,Wohlgemuth D.2002.Rural population growth,1950-1990:The roles of human capital,industry structure,and government policy[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84(3):615-627.
Kodrzycki Y K.2001.Migration of recent college graduates:evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth[J].New England Economic Review,(1):13-34.
Mcguirk H,Lenihan H,Hart M.2015.Measuring the impact of innovative human capital on small firms'propensity to innovate[J].Research Policy,44(4):965-976.
Philippon T,Reshef A.2012.Wages and human capital in the US finance industry:1909-2006[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,127(4):1551-1609.
Schachter J P,Franklin R S,Perry M J.2003.Migration and geographic mobility in metropolitan and non-metropolitan America:1995-2000[R].Census 2000 Special Reports CENSR-12.
Wong D W.1992.The reliability of using the iterative propor-tional fitting procedure[J].The Professional Geographer,44(3):340-348.
高晓路,吴丹贤,许泽宁,等.2015.中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建[J].地理科学进展,34(12):1480-1494.[Gao X L,Wu D X,Xu Z N,et al.2015.A review and frame-work setting of geographical research on aging in China.Progress in Geography,34(12):1480-1494.]
郭瑜.2013.人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,(11):49-58.[Guo Y.2013.The impact of an aging population on the labor supply in China.Economic Theory and Business Management,(11):49-58.]
黄乾,李修彪.2015.我国省域人力资本的收敛性分析:基于三种测算方法的比较[J].人口与经济,(4):94-106.[Huang Q,Li X B.A comparative analysis of convergence of provincial regions'per capita human capital in China:Based on three kinds of human capital estimation methods.Population and Economics,(4):94-106.]
李恩平.2012.基于六普、五普的城镇化人口统计数据修补[J].人口与经济,(4):64-70.[Li E P.2012.The revision for the rate of urbanization:Based on the data of the five census and the six census.Population and Economics,(4):64-70.]
李萌,张佑林,张国平.2007.中国人力资本区际分布差异实证研究[J].教育与经济,(1):12-17.[Li M,Zhang Y L,Zhang G P.2007.An empirical study on regional distributing disparities of Chinese human capital.Education and Economy,(1):12-17.]
李玉江.2005.区域人力资本研究[M].北京:科学出版社.[Li Y J.2005.Research of regional human capital.Beijing,China:Science Press.]
廖柳文,高晓路.2018.人口老龄化对乡村发展影响研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,37(5):617-626.[Liao L W,Gao X L.2018.Progress and prospect of research on the impact of population aging on rural development.Progress in Geography,37(5):617-626.]
刘晶.2012.中国人力资本空间分布差异的实证分析[J].西北人口,33(3):33-37.[Liu J.2012.An empirical study on human capital regional distributing disparities of China.Northwest Population,33(3):33-37.]
杨俊,李雪松.2007.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长:基于中国的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(2):37-45.[Yang J,Li X S.2007.Education inequality,human capital and economic growth:An empirical study on China.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,(2):37-45.]
张兴华.2013.中国农村剩余劳动力的重新估算[J].中国农村经济,(8):49-54.[Zhang X H.2013.Reevaluation of surplus labor force in rural China.Chinese Rural Economy,(8):49-54.]
周一星,于海波.2002.以“五普”数据为基础对我国城镇化水平修补的建议[J].统计研究,(4):44-47.[Zhou Y X,Yu H B.2002.Suggestions on reconstructing the urbanization levels in China based on the fifth population census.Statistical Research,(4):44-47.]
朱启臻,杨汇泉.2011.谁在种地:对农业劳动力的调查与思考[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),28(1):162-169.[Zhu Q Z,Yang H Q.2011.Who are engaging in agriculture?Investigations and recognition to the agricultural labor force.China Agricultural University Journal of Social Sciences Edition,28(1):162-169.]
中国国家统计局.2017.2016年农民工监测调查报告[EB/OL].[2018-11-01].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201704/t20170428_1489334.html.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.2017.2016 rural migrant workers monitoring survey report.[2018-11-01].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201704/t20170428_1489334.html.]
中国国家统计局.2017.第三次全国农业普查主要数据公报[EB/OL].[2018-11-01].http://www.stats.gov.cn/statsinfo/auto2074/201712/t20171219_1564742.html.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.The main data bulletin of the third national agricultural census.[2018-11-01].http://www.stats.gov.cn/statsinfo/auto2074/201712/t20171219_1564742.html.]
Becker G S.1994.Human capital:A theoretical and empirical analysis with special reference to education[M].3rd edition.Chicago,USA:The University of Chicago Press.
Birkin M.1986.Iterative Proportional Fitting(IPF):Theory,method,and example(Computer Manual 26)[R].Leeds,UK:School of Geography,University of Leeds.
Bishop Y M M,Fienberg S E,Holland P W.1975.Discrete multivariate analysis,theory and practice[M].Cambridge,USA:MIT Press.
Cooke P.2002.Knowledge Economies[M].London,UK:Routledge.
Gottlieb P.2011.Supply or demand,make or buy:Two simple frameworks for thinking about a state-Level brain drain policy[J].Economic Development Quarterly,25(4):303-315.
Huang T L,Orazem P F,Wohlgemuth D.2002.Rural population growth,1950-1990:The roles of human capital,industry structure,and government policy[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84(3):615-627.
Kodrzycki Y K.2001.Migration of recent college graduates:evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth[J].New England Economic Review,(1):13-34.
Mcguirk H,Lenihan H,Hart M.2015.Measuring the impact of innovative human capital on small firms'propensity to innovate[J].Research Policy,44(4):965-976.
Philippon T,Reshef A.2012.Wages and human capital in the US finance industry:1909-2006[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,127(4):1551-1609.
Schachter J P,Franklin R S,Perry M J.2003.Migration and geographic mobility in metropolitan and non-metropolitan America:1995-2000[R].Census 2000 Special Reports CENSR-12.
Wong D W.1992.The reliability of using the iterative propor-tional fitting procedure[J].The Professional Geographer,44(3):340-348.