基于活动地块的测震学参数中期地震预测应用
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摘要
强震的孕育和发生不仅与震中附近构造有关,而且与孕震区所在的整个构造带有关,因此在利用测震学参数异常预测地震时必须考虑整个构造带的地震活动。过去以震中周围地区的地震活动资料来做测震学参数的异常分析,可能会丢失部分信息。本文进行了地震构造分区和构造单元的划分,以D、C、Mf值和河套断陷边界带的结合为例,对基于活动地块边界带的测震学参数预测地震进行了探索,结果对河套断陷边界带发生的4次6级地震预测效果很好。
Conceiving and occurring strong earthquake is closed - related not only with tectonic of epicenter area but also with the whole tectonic zone. That is to say seismicity of whole zone is related with future shock, so when we predicate some event using seismometry parameters we must consider seismicity problem from the whole zone. We used to analyze anomaly of seimometry parameters calculated only by the area of epicenter. It is possible to lose some anomaly information. Authors,in this paper,make division of active tectonic-block region and active tectonic - block, and set a good example of combining parameters D C Mf with Hetao fault basin boundary zone in order to explore the earthquake prediction. It is found that the result is better correlated with 4 strong earthquake events occurred at Hetao fault basin boundary.
Conceiving and occurring strong earthquake is closed - related not only with tectonic of epicenter area but also with the whole tectonic zone. That is to say seismicity of whole zone is related with future shock, so when we predicate some event using seismometry parameters we must consider seismicity problem from the whole zone. We used to analyze anomaly of seimometry parameters calculated only by the area of epicenter. It is possible to lose some anomaly information. Authors,in this paper,make division of active tectonic-block region and active tectonic - block, and set a good example of combining parameters D C Mf with Hetao fault basin boundary zone in order to explore the earthquake prediction. It is found that the result is better correlated with 4 strong earthquake events occurred at Hetao fault basin boundary.
引文
[1]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等．中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J]．中国科学,2003,33(增刊):12-20．
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[3]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等．基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M]．成都:成都地图出版社,2002．21-29,188-189．
[4]国家地震局《鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系》课题组．鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系[M]．北京:地震出版社,1988．39-76．
[5]许绍燮．地震预报能力评分[A]．见:国家地震局科技监测司．地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C]．北京:学术书刊出版 社,1989．586-590．
[6]张肇诚．中国震例(1976-1980年)[M]．北京:地震出版社,1990．133-145,385-398．
[7]陈棋福．中国震例(1995-1996年)[M]．北京:地震出版社,2002．371-388．
[8]薛丁．包头西6．4级地震前显著中等地震活动增强和丛集异常[J]．地震,2003,23(4):71-76．
[2]国家地震局预测预防司．地震预报系列教材,测震学分析预报方法[M]．北京:地震出版社,1997．86-105．
[3]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等．基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M]．成都:成都地图出版社,2002．21-29,188-189．
[4]国家地震局《鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系》课题组．鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系[M]．北京:地震出版社,1988．39-76．
[5]许绍燮．地震预报能力评分[A]．见:国家地震局科技监测司．地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C]．北京:学术书刊出版 社,1989．586-590．
[6]张肇诚．中国震例(1976-1980年)[M]．北京:地震出版社,1990．133-145,385-398．
[7]陈棋福．中国震例(1995-1996年)[M]．北京:地震出版社,2002．371-388．
[8]薛丁．包头西6．4级地震前显著中等地震活动增强和丛集异常[J]．地震,2003,23(4):71-76．
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