土石坝失事量化风险评估方法研究
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摘要
风险评估为衡量大坝安全提供了很好的途径,近十几年来,风险评估技术在发达国家的大坝安全管理中得到了快速的发展和应用,已经成为现代大坝安全管理的一个重要环节。为此根据风险评估的理论和方法,对土石坝失事风险的量化计算方法进行了探索研究,闸述了包括失事模式识别、失事概率分析和失事后果估算的有关概念及公式,介绍了运用大坝容许风险进行风险评价的方法,并提出了一些降低土石坝失事风险的建议。
Risk exists in all dams. It must be properly considered in order to keep the dam safe enough. Risk assessment provides a good way for judging dam safety. In the last ten years, the technology of risk assessment has been rapidly developed in the field of dam safety management in developed countries. It has became one of the most important parts of modern dam safety management. In this paper, based on the theory and method of risk assessment, a study is made on quantitative calculation method for earth-rock dam failure risk. That includes failure pattern recognition, failure probability analysis and failure consequences assessment. Besides, a method of tolerable risk for dam failure risk is suggested and some measures to decrease earth-rock dam failure risk are put forward.
Risk exists in all dams. It must be properly considered in order to keep the dam safe enough. Risk assessment provides a good way for judging dam safety. In the last ten years, the technology of risk assessment has been rapidly developed in the field of dam safety management in developed countries. It has became one of the most important parts of modern dam safety management. In this paper, based on the theory and method of risk assessment, a study is made on quantitative calculation method for earth-rock dam failure risk. That includes failure pattern recognition, failure probability analysis and failure consequences assessment. Besides, a method of tolerable risk for dam failure risk is suggested and some measures to decrease earth-rock dam failure risk are put forward.
引文
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[2]楼渐逵.加拿大BCHydro公司的大坝安全风险管理[J].大坝与安全,2002,14(4):7-11.
[3]王丽萍,高仕春.水利工程经济[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
[4]王卓甫.考虑洪水过程不确定的施工导流风险计算[J].水利学报,1998(4):33-37.
[5]李雷,盛金保.土石坝安全度综合评价方法初探[J].大坝观测与土工测试,1999,23(4):22-24.
[6]王卓甫,章志强,杨高升.防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨[J].水利学报,1998(7):64-67.
[7]刘汉龙.随机地震作用下地基及土石坝永久变形分析[J].岩土工学报,1996,18(3):19-27.
[8]BrownCA,GrahamWJ.Assessingthethreattolifefromdamfailure[J].Waterresourcebulletin,1988,24(6):1303-1309.
[9]U.S.BureauofReclamation.Policyandproceduresfordamsafetymodificationdecisionmaking[M].Denver,1989.
[10]DakayML,McClellandGH.Predictinglossoflifeincaseofdamfailureandflashflood[J].RiskAnalysis,1993,13(2):193-205.
[11]SalmonGM,HartfordDND.Riskanalysisfordamsafety[J].InternationalWaterPower&DamConstruction,1995,47(3):42-47.
[12]KrenzerH.Theuseofriskanalysistosupportdamsafetydecisionandmanagement[A].TheProceedingsof21thInternationalCongressonLargeDams[C],Beijing:theInternationalCommissiononLargeDams,2000,799-801.
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