川滇地区强震孕育过程中的中等地震动态演化特征
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摘要
引用有关地震活动的频度面积S值方法[1 ] ,对川滇地区 1970年以来 6 7级以上强震前后的中等地震活动进行研究 ,发现强震的S值在震前和震后的异常变化特征既有共性又有个性。共性主要表现为 :在震前S值异常为高值或低值异常 ,震后下降或上升 ;对特定区域研究发现 ,滇西南地区强震的孕震区中等地震活动的S值震前异常主要为高值 ,而滇西地区强震孕震区中等地震活动的S值震前异常主要表现为低值。表明对川滇地区强震孕震区中等地震活动的频度面积S值方法的动态追踪 ,利用其变化规律可以为强震的预测预报提供一定的判定指标
The seismicity of the moderate earthquake before and after the strong earthquake with M≥6.7 since 1970 is studied by way of Frequency-Area Method (namely S-value Method)proposed by Wen-xuan Du. Then, a phenomenon is found that the anomaly variation of S-value before and after the strong earthquake is characterized by both commonality and individuality. The commonality is that the S-value becomes a high anomalous value or a low anomalous one before the strong earthquake occurs and it decreases or increases after the strong earthquake occurs. The individuality is that in the seismogenic area of strong earthquakes in southwest Yunnan, S-value becomes a high anomalous value before the strong earthquake occurs. But in west Yunnan, S-value becomes a low anomalous value before strong earthquake occurs. The study shows that one can make the dynamic tracing of S-value in the seismogenic area in Sichuan-Yunnan area and provide criteria for the earthquake prediction
The seismicity of the moderate earthquake before and after the strong earthquake with M≥6.7 since 1970 is studied by way of Frequency-Area Method (namely S-value Method)proposed by Wen-xuan Du. Then, a phenomenon is found that the anomaly variation of S-value before and after the strong earthquake is characterized by both commonality and individuality. The commonality is that the S-value becomes a high anomalous value or a low anomalous one before the strong earthquake occurs and it decreases or increases after the strong earthquake occurs. The individuality is that in the seismogenic area of strong earthquakes in southwest Yunnan, S-value becomes a high anomalous value before the strong earthquake occurs. But in west Yunnan, S-value becomes a low anomalous value before strong earthquake occurs. The study shows that one can make the dynamic tracing of S-value in the seismogenic area in Sichuan-Yunnan area and provide criteria for the earthquake prediction
引文
[1]Wen-xuanDu,LynnR .Sykes.ChangesFrequencyModerate_SizeEarthquakesandCoulombFailureStressbeforeandaftertheLanderS ,California,Earthquakeof1992[J]BulletinofSeismologicalofAmerica,91,4,pp725-738,August2001.
[2]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(二)———强震孕育时应力应变场的演化与地震活动地震前兆的关系[J].地震学报,1996,18(1):1-10.
[3]蔡静观.丽江大震前长-中-短-临地震学异常的演化过程[J].地震研究,1997,20(1):13-20.
[4]李永莉,蔡静观,曹刻.云南地区强震活动过程中的调制比、b值[J].地震研究,2002,25(1):25-30.
[5]梅世容,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,44-99.
[2]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(二)———强震孕育时应力应变场的演化与地震活动地震前兆的关系[J].地震学报,1996,18(1):1-10.
[3]蔡静观.丽江大震前长-中-短-临地震学异常的演化过程[J].地震研究,1997,20(1):13-20.
[4]李永莉,蔡静观,曹刻.云南地区强震活动过程中的调制比、b值[J].地震研究,2002,25(1):25-30.
[5]梅世容,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,44-99.
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