汶川8.0级地震前的地震活动及序列分析

英文篇名：The Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake:Pre-seismic Activity and Maximum Aftershock Prediction
中文刊名：地震研究
英文刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
作者：李永莉 ; 毛慧玲 ; 付虹
英文作者：LI Yong-li ; MAO Hui-ling ; FU Hong(Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province ; Kunming 650224 ; Yunnan ; China)
中文关键词：汶川8.0级地震 ; 地震序列 ; 强震活动 ; 活动背景
英文关键词：Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake ; earthquake sequence ; aftershock activity
出版日期：2008-12-15
机构：云南省地震局;
年：2008
期：S1
出版单位：地震研究

摘要

通过分析汶川8.0级地震的强震活动背景、区域地震活动和地震序列,寻求汶川地震孕育与活动过程中的特征,结果表明:该地震是在强震活动外强内弱,中小地震活动大区域增强,小区域中长、短期异常活跃的背景下,发生在龙门山断裂带上的大地震。采用类比概率分析法预测最大强余震,取得了较准确的结果,为今后早期判定某些地震序列中最大强余震提供了一种分析思路。
With the aim to find the features of the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake in development and activity process,we analyze the strong earthquake activity in western China since 2001,the seismicity in Sichuan,and the Wenchuan earthquake sequence.The Wenchuan earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault under the background that the strong earthquake activity was strong outside southwestern China but weak inside the area,the moderate-small earthquake increased in a big range and the medium-and short-term anomalies were active in a small range.The analogue analysis method,which is used to forecast the maximum strong aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake,is accurate to the early judgment of the maximum strong aftershock.

引文

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