修正四阶段法在城市交通抗灾规划中的应用
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摘要
根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性,对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行了修正,讨论了不同模型的参数变化趋势,建议了参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测得到道路通行能力、流量、负荷度和平均运行时间等多个指标,为城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。最后,结合我国东南沿海某城市的工程实践,有针对性的进行了应用和验证。
Based on the social economic activity and traffic characters in different period,the authors modified the traditional four-stage traffic demand estimation model,which included traffic generation,trip-distribution,mode split and traffic distribution.The changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggested.And then based on the modified four-stage method,the traffic demand in response to natural disaster such as earthquake can be estimated.It can help the government to make anti-disaster plan.The method is easy to use to get a number of forecast data,including capacity of roadway,volume,the V/C and average travel time,which are the base of emergency response plan of urban transport system.Finally,the research method is used in engineering work in a city in the south-east of China.
Based on the social economic activity and traffic characters in different period,the authors modified the traditional four-stage traffic demand estimation model,which included traffic generation,trip-distribution,mode split and traffic distribution.The changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggested.And then based on the modified four-stage method,the traffic demand in response to natural disaster such as earthquake can be estimated.It can help the government to make anti-disaster plan.The method is easy to use to get a number of forecast data,including capacity of roadway,volume,the V/C and average travel time,which are the base of emergency response plan of urban transport system.Finally,the research method is used in engineering work in a city in the south-east of China.
引文
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[2]陈艳艳,史建港.震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法[J].公路交通科技,2004(8):78-81.
[3]任福田,刘小明,荣建,等.交通工程学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[4]王炜,徐吉谦,杨涛,李旭宏.城市交通规划理论及其应用[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1998.
[5]刘灿齐.现代交通规划学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[2]陈艳艳,史建港.震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法[J].公路交通科技,2004(8):78-81.
[3]任福田,刘小明,荣建,等.交通工程学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[4]王炜,徐吉谦,杨涛,李旭宏.城市交通规划理论及其应用[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1998.
[5]刘灿齐.现代交通规划学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
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