卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究
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摘要
文章扼要介绍卫星热红外亮温异常的基本原理,分析建立地震短临预测遥感信息模型,通过11 a试验性预报实践和几个地震的案例,如南海东沙地震,台湾集集大地震,震例还有内蒙包头地震,美国华盛顿州奥林匹亚地震及印尼苏门答腊巨震等。从作为震兆的亮温异常提升到热应力场,对预测地震震中更加可靠和更有说服力,说明此项技术具有实际应用前景。
In this paper,we introduce briefly the fundamental principles of satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomalies,and analyze and establish the model of remote sensing information of earthquake prediction in imminence.In the past 11 years,the tests of earthquake prediction proved that this technique has good application prospects.Two earthquake events of Dongsha and Jiji strong earthquakes were successfully forecasted,and three earthquakes that occurred in Baotou,China;Olympia,WA,USA;and Sumatera,Indonesia have been taken as case studies.This method uses the temperature increasing anomalies to explore the thermal infrared stress field and uses the thermal stress field as a precursor of an impending earthquake,which thus can provide the position of coming earthquake epicenter clearly.
In this paper,we introduce briefly the fundamental principles of satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomalies,and analyze and establish the model of remote sensing information of earthquake prediction in imminence.In the past 11 years,the tests of earthquake prediction proved that this technique has good application prospects.Two earthquake events of Dongsha and Jiji strong earthquakes were successfully forecasted,and three earthquakes that occurred in Baotou,China;Olympia,WA,USA;and Sumatera,Indonesia have been taken as case studies.This method uses the temperature increasing anomalies to explore the thermal infrared stress field and uses the thermal stress field as a precursor of an impending earthquake,which thus can provide the position of coming earthquake epicenter clearly.
引文
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[14]Qiang Z J,Dian C G.Satellite thermal infrared temperatureincrease precursor-short termand i mpending earthquake pre-diction[C]∥Environmental Assessment of Geological Haz-ards:Proceedings of the Space Congress,1995:53-57.
[15]Qiang Z J,Yao Q L,Wei L J.The annular stress thermalfield of satellite thermal infrared prior-earthquakes[J].ActaGeoscientica Sinica,2008,29(4):486-494(in Chinese).
[2]王纯莹.利用时空内插及资料正规化辅助地震前热异常现象之侦测[D].台北:国立台湾大学地理环境资源研究所,2005.
[3]但尚铭,刘放,程万正.卫星遥感热辐射影响因素以及热辐射信息在地震预测中的应用[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):372-377.
[5]马蔼乃.遥感信息模型[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1997:165.
[6]马蔼乃.动力地貌学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008:298.
[7]强祖基,赁常恭,徐秀登.卫星热红外异常:临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327.
[8]强祖基.一种地震临震预报新方法探索[M]∥地震科技进展与动向.北京:地震出版社,1992:12-17.
[9]强祖基,孔令昌.地震与卫星热红外异常:气热说[C]∥北京大学国际地质科学学术研讨会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1998:176-188.
[10]强祖基,李玲芝,赁常恭.卫星热红外图像亮温异常:短临震兆[J].中国科学:D辑,1998,28(6):564-573.
[11]强祖基,杜乐天.地球排气与森林火灾和地震活动[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):235-245.
[15]强祖基,姚清林,魏乐军.震前卫星热红外环形应力场特征[J].地球学报,2008,29(4):486-494.
[2]Wang C Y.Applying Spatial-Temporal Interpolation and Da-ta Normalization Methods in Detecting Pre-earthquake Ab-normal Temperature Increasing Phenomenon[D].Taibei:National Tai wan University,2005(in Chinese).
[3]Dan S M,Liu F,Cheng WZ.Effect factors on satellite re-mote sensing heat radiation and application of heat radiationinformation to earthquake prediction[J].Inland Earthquake,2002,16(4):372-377(in Chinese).
[4]Ma A N,Qiang Z J.Remote sensing information models forearthquake forecasting[J].Applied Geologic Remote Sens-ing,1997,2(10):17-19.
[5]Ma A N.Model of Remote Sensing[M].Beijing:Peking U-niversity Press,1997:165(in Chinese).
[6]Ma A N.Outline of Dynamic Geomorphology[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2008:298(in Chinese).
[7]Qiang Z J,Dian C G,Xu X D.Thermal infrared anomaly:Precursor of i mpending earthquakes[J].Chinese Science Bul-letin,1991,36(4):319-323.
[8]Qiang Z J.Explore of the new method of i mpending earth-quake prediction[M]∥Trend and Progress of SeismologicalScience and Technique.Beijing:Seismological Press,1992:12-17(in Chinese).
[9]Qiang Z J,Kong L C.Gas-thermal hypotheses short-termand i mpending increasing temperature precursor of earth-quake found fromsatellite infrared i mages[C]∥Proceedingsof International Geological Science of Peking University 1898-1998.Beijing:Seismological Press,1998:176-188(in Chi-nese).
[10]Qiang Z J,Li L Z,Dian C G.Satellite thermal infraredbrightness temperature anomaly i mage:Short-term and i m-pending earthquake precursors[J].Science in China:SeriesD:1999,42(3):313-324.
[11]Qiang Z J,Du L T.Earth degassing,forest fire and seismicactivities[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2001,8(2):235-245(in Chinese).
[12]Qiang Z J,Zhao X,Xie H,et al.Satellite thermal infraredstress field and earthquake predictionin short-termandi mmi-nent[C].AGU Fall Meeting,2007.
[13]Qiang Z J,Dian C G,Li L Z.Satellite thermal infrared a-nomaly and earthquakes prediction in advance and in short-term[C].30th International Geological Congress,1996.
[14]Qiang Z J,Dian C G.Satellite thermal infrared temperatureincrease precursor-short termand i mpending earthquake pre-diction[C]∥Environmental Assessment of Geological Haz-ards:Proceedings of the Space Congress,1995:53-57.
[15]Qiang Z J,Yao Q L,Wei L J.The annular stress thermalfield of satellite thermal infrared prior-earthquakes[J].ActaGeoscientica Sinica,2008,29(4):486-494(in Chinese).
[2]王纯莹.利用时空内插及资料正规化辅助地震前热异常现象之侦测[D].台北:国立台湾大学地理环境资源研究所,2005.
[3]但尚铭,刘放,程万正.卫星遥感热辐射影响因素以及热辐射信息在地震预测中的应用[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):372-377.
[5]马蔼乃.遥感信息模型[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1997:165.
[6]马蔼乃.动力地貌学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008:298.
[7]强祖基,赁常恭,徐秀登.卫星热红外异常:临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327.
[8]强祖基.一种地震临震预报新方法探索[M]∥地震科技进展与动向.北京:地震出版社,1992:12-17.
[9]强祖基,孔令昌.地震与卫星热红外异常:气热说[C]∥北京大学国际地质科学学术研讨会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1998:176-188.
[10]强祖基,李玲芝,赁常恭.卫星热红外图像亮温异常:短临震兆[J].中国科学:D辑,1998,28(6):564-573.
[11]强祖基,杜乐天.地球排气与森林火灾和地震活动[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):235-245.
[15]强祖基,姚清林,魏乐军.震前卫星热红外环形应力场特征[J].地球学报,2008,29(4):486-494.
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