2003年岷县5.5级地震地震学前兆特征及预报意义
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摘要
研究了2003年甘肃岷县5.5级地震的地震学前兆的变化特征,显示尾波Qc值和地震空间相关长度在震前都呈增长趋势,用幂次率关系对这种变化进行了拟合。结果为利用尾波Q值和地震空间相关长度的监测资料建立预测地震发生时间的方法和指标打下了基础。
In the paper,the characteristics of seismological precursors(seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc) associated with the earthquake(M=5.5) occurred in Minxian,Gansu Province,on Nov.13,2003,are studied.The result shows an increasing trend of the both parameters before the earthquake.And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of the parameters.The study provids a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc.
In the paper,the characteristics of seismological precursors(seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc) associated with the earthquake(M=5.5) occurred in Minxian,Gansu Province,on Nov.13,2003,are studied.The result shows an increasing trend of the both parameters before the earthquake.And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of the parameters.The study provids a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc.
引文
[1]荣代潞,李亚荣,韩晓明.地壳介质破裂的尺度理论在研究山丹-民乐6.1级地震地震学前兆特征中的应用[J].地震学报,2006,28(4):438-447.
[2]Aki K,Chouet B.Origin of Coda wave:source,attenuationand scattering effects[J].J.Geophys.Res,1975,80:3322-3342.
[3]Jin A,Aki K.Temporal change in coda before the Tangshanearthquake of 1976 and the Haicheng earthquake of 1975[J].JGeophys Res,1986,91:665-673.
[4]Novelo-Casanova D A,Berg E,Hsu V,et al..Time-spacevariation seismic S-wave coda attenuation(Q-1)and magni-tude distribution(b-value)for the Petatlan earthquake[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,1985,12:789-792.
[5]Peng J Y,Aki K,Lee W H K,et al..Temperal change in co-da Q associated with 1984 Round Valley earthquake in Califor-nia[J].J.Geophys.Res,1987,92:3507-3536.
[6]秦嘉政,李宁,胡克坚.1985年禄劝地震余震尾波值的某些研究[J].地震学报,1987.9(3):239-252.
[7]王勤彩,郑斯华,刁桂苓,等.张北地震序列的尾波值研究[J].防震减灾工程学报,2004,24(1):37-40.
[8]Frohlich C,Davis D.Single-link cluster analysis as a methodto evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake cata-logues[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1990,100:19-32.
[9]Bruce A,Wallace D.Critical point phenomena:universalphysics at large length scales[A]∥P Dawis edit.New Phys-ics[C].New York:Cambridge Univ.Press,1989:236-267.
[10]Zoller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.Observation of growing corre-lation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior tolarge earthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106(2);2167-2175.
[11]荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):509-515.
[12]曾健,聂永安.单次和多次散射对地方震尾波的作用[J].地震学报.1989,11(1):12-23.
[13]聂永安,曾健,冯德益.三维尾波散射问题的理论研究[J].地震学报.1995,17(1):68-71.
[14]秦保燕,汪进.组合模式与地震图上的终止相[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(4):1-14.
[15]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社.1991.78-79.
[16]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cy-cle of the greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-9883.
[17]Brehm D J,Braile L W.intermidiate-term earthquake predic-tion using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1998,88:564-580.
[18]Brehm D J,Braile L W.intermidiate-term earthquake predic-tion using the modified time-to-failure method in SouthernCalifornia[J].Seism.Soc.Amer.,1999,89:275-293.
[19]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强地震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[20]蒋长胜,吴忠良.2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,2005,27(3):269-275.
[21]余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(增刊):122-130.
[22]Allegre C J,Le Mouel J L,Provost A.Scaling rules in rockfracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1982,297:47-49.
[2]Aki K,Chouet B.Origin of Coda wave:source,attenuationand scattering effects[J].J.Geophys.Res,1975,80:3322-3342.
[3]Jin A,Aki K.Temporal change in coda before the Tangshanearthquake of 1976 and the Haicheng earthquake of 1975[J].JGeophys Res,1986,91:665-673.
[4]Novelo-Casanova D A,Berg E,Hsu V,et al..Time-spacevariation seismic S-wave coda attenuation(Q-1)and magni-tude distribution(b-value)for the Petatlan earthquake[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,1985,12:789-792.
[5]Peng J Y,Aki K,Lee W H K,et al..Temperal change in co-da Q associated with 1984 Round Valley earthquake in Califor-nia[J].J.Geophys.Res,1987,92:3507-3536.
[6]秦嘉政,李宁,胡克坚.1985年禄劝地震余震尾波值的某些研究[J].地震学报,1987.9(3):239-252.
[7]王勤彩,郑斯华,刁桂苓,等.张北地震序列的尾波值研究[J].防震减灾工程学报,2004,24(1):37-40.
[8]Frohlich C,Davis D.Single-link cluster analysis as a methodto evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake cata-logues[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1990,100:19-32.
[9]Bruce A,Wallace D.Critical point phenomena:universalphysics at large length scales[A]∥P Dawis edit.New Phys-ics[C].New York:Cambridge Univ.Press,1989:236-267.
[10]Zoller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.Observation of growing corre-lation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior tolarge earthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106(2);2167-2175.
[11]荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):509-515.
[12]曾健,聂永安.单次和多次散射对地方震尾波的作用[J].地震学报.1989,11(1):12-23.
[13]聂永安,曾健,冯德益.三维尾波散射问题的理论研究[J].地震学报.1995,17(1):68-71.
[14]秦保燕,汪进.组合模式与地震图上的终止相[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(4):1-14.
[15]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社.1991.78-79.
[16]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cy-cle of the greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-9883.
[17]Brehm D J,Braile L W.intermidiate-term earthquake predic-tion using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1998,88:564-580.
[18]Brehm D J,Braile L W.intermidiate-term earthquake predic-tion using the modified time-to-failure method in SouthernCalifornia[J].Seism.Soc.Amer.,1999,89:275-293.
[19]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强地震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[20]蒋长胜,吴忠良.2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,2005,27(3):269-275.
[21]余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(增刊):122-130.
[22]Allegre C J,Le Mouel J L,Provost A.Scaling rules in rockfracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1982,297:47-49.
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