华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析
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摘要
用统计学上的χ~2检验方法对华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静进行了统计检验,得出在较高的置信概率下可以将平静时间T≥140天作为平静异常的判别标准。总结了华东地区自1970年以来出现的平静异常,并分析了其对应中强地震的情况。研究表明,M_L≥4.0地震平静异常是华东地区中强震前的一种普遍现象。62.5%的平静异常后发生了M_S≥4.5地震;绝大多数平静异常前存在着地震活动的增强过程,多次活动增强后连续发生了平静异常且之后发生了M_S≥5.0地震。
In this article, we use the examination method to give statistic and examination of M_L≥ 4.0 earthquake quiescence in East China.We get the conclusion that if the quiet time of M_L≥4.0 earthquake is more than 140 days, it can be regarded as an abnormity with high probability.We summarized the M_L≥4.0 earthquake quiescence abnormity in East China since 1970 and analyzed the subsequent mid-strong earthquakes.It can be found that there were earthquake quiescence abnormity before most mid-strong earthquakes in East China. After a quiescence abnormity, in most cases (62.5%) , an earthquake of M_S≥4.5 will occur. Before most quiescence abnormity, there is an activity abnormity.Many times after an activity abnormity, continuous quiescence abnormity occurs and then an earthquake of M_S≥5.0 happens.
In this article, we use the examination method to give statistic and examination of M_L≥ 4.0 earthquake quiescence in East China.We get the conclusion that if the quiet time of M_L≥4.0 earthquake is more than 140 days, it can be regarded as an abnormity with high probability.We summarized the M_L≥4.0 earthquake quiescence abnormity in East China since 1970 and analyzed the subsequent mid-strong earthquakes.It can be found that there were earthquake quiescence abnormity before most mid-strong earthquakes in East China. After a quiescence abnormity, in most cases (62.5%) , an earthquake of M_S≥4.5 will occur. Before most quiescence abnormity, there is an activity abnormity.Many times after an activity abnormity, continuous quiescence abnormity occurs and then an earthquake of M_S≥5.0 happens.
引文
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丁国瑜.中国内陆活动断裂基本特征的探讨//中国活动断裂[M].北京:地震出版社.
蒋海昆,侯海峰.华北地区大范围内中等地震活动平静的统计检验及其预测意义[J].内陆地震,2000,14(2) :97-104．
陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985．
罗札·赛克斯著.罗永泰,史道济译.应用统计手册[M].天津翻译出版公司,1987．
平建军,张青荣,曹肃朝等.4级地震平静是华北地区强震前的一个重要震兆特征[J].地震学报,2001,23(4) :441-448．
许绍燮,陆远忠,朱传镇等.地震学分析预报方法程式指南[M].北京:地震出版社,1990．
阎素萍,陈宇卫,李敏莉,刘泽民.华东地区M_S≥5． 0地震持续平静的意义[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(6) :1-8．
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001．
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